Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Does anything ever get any nearer than day 10?   :-p

Day 10 ECMWF isn't that exciting either, but I'm sure we will be told days 11 to 15 will be!

Synoptically it may look interesting, but realistically it will be early March and a bit of snow over Cairngorm isn’t unusual.

[Neil Harris]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Youll like the 00z even more! Could be quite a battle ground somewhere should this scenario come off!

We don't need cold, not with Cheltenham on the horizon. Don't half need some rain though, Which are the models that show that accurately?

[Paul White.]

6 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Does anything ever get any nearer than day 10?   

Yes the UKMO has -10 clipping the SE in 4 days. Doesn’t affect me coz I live pop north, but some people often win the cold jackpots in the NH be happy for them.

[Bald Eagle]

15 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Does anything ever get any nearer than day 10?   :-p

Never

[seabreeze86]

ECM GEM UKMO all fantastic this morning the GFS going west based which is still a possibility but unlikely. The big plus is the retrogressing high is now getting close to that semi reliable timeframe so confidence is now building 

 

Also nice little upgrade for the south east from the initial easterly 

Usually the 0z downgrades and then the 12 upgrades expect fireworks later on 

COLD IS COMING 

Edited February 22, 2023 by seabreeze86

[nick sussex]

The will it won’t it earlier easterly is still not resolved with a small shift north or south making a big difference .

Any interest as it is is mainly reserved for the se at this point .

Later we see the GFS west based horror show which highlights how blocking can still end up being a lottery .

The other models thankfully don’t support its op so we can breathe easier for now .

[markw2680]

59 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Humongous upgrade at day 10 way off any west based. Get in, perfect alignment , let’s hope full support  with the ENS 

Much that I love your enthusiasm you do realise it’s always day 10? The amount of day 10s we have had lately should be around day 2 or 3 by now! Let’s hope these charts do make it before the end of March but time will tell. If in another week it’s day 10 I really would just start looking for day 10 thunderstorms and heat personally 

[andymusic]

17 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Does anything ever get any nearer than day 10?   

It does appear to be a waiting game lol - but we weather scientists have to be patient - the best is yet to come for coldies I think - the models are lining things up for the UK in a good way

[IDO]

The GFS and that trigger low around D7-D8 it sends all the energy under, rather than disrupting and splitting the energy. This leads to the west-based run:

ECM sends all the energy over:

GEM is the best as it splits the energy:

The models struggle with this energy flow at this range, so we may have some chopping and changing until that is resolved. The take from these variations is that the GFS solution of barrelling the low through will not work for cold, though it is at least less likely based on GFS's tendency to be progressive with the westerly flow. The GFS op in FI is a clear outlier, though the GEFS at D13 is a very mixed bunch.

[ICE COLD]

Well the ECM looks pretty chilly from about day 3 , all the way to day 10 . With the main course just about to unleash at day 10 .

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Much that I love your enthusiasm you do realise it’s always day 10? The amount of day 10s we have had lately should be around day 2 or 3 by now! Let’s hope these charts do make it before the end of March but time will tell. If in another week it’s day 10 I really would just start looking for day 10 thunderstorms and heat personally 

Yes those summer thunder storms will be here ever so soon - and will we beat last years record HEAT of over 40 degrees? - That was amazing weather - too hot for me - and the fires that broke out were very worrying and as we know the GFS model predicted that far out!

[andymusic]

18 minutes ago, Neil Harris said:

We don't need cold, not with Cheltenham on the horizon. Don't half need some rain though, Which are the models that show that accurately?

Yes agree with you there - rain has been sadly lacking - at this rate we are gonna struggle badly through the summer with drought conditions and the UK turns into the "NEW DESERT" of Europe lol! Maybe like the Canaries we'll need to build some de-salination plants to use sea water for baths and toilet flushing lol - Andy out of here!

[Daniel*]

A spell of -NAO is assured in first half of March but now also evidence of -AO which is also evidence the SSW has coupled to trop. 

 

[Ladyofthestorm]

Good morning folks. I've been watching the effects of the SSW unfold in the models.  

I think it's going to come from the North rather than East this time around . Just like 2006.

 

 

 

[Rain All Night]

10 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Much that I love your enthusiasm you do realise it’s always day 10? The amount of day 10s we have had lately should be around day 2 or 3 by now! Let’s hope these charts do make it before the end of March but time will tell. If in another week it’s day 10 I really would just start looking for day 10 thunderstorms and heat personally 

The possible Arctic plunge resulting from a Greenland high isn't as close as day 10 yet, but the signals for it in the extended outputs have been strengthening and counting down, so the interest is being maintained.

Other lesser events, like today's cold front from the north and the mini cold pool heading for the southeast this weekend, have been counting down each day since they were first modelled within day 10.

[Purga]

Blimey - March heading towards record mild Bartlett territory according to GFS 00z.

Fortunately there is considerable spread and a few decent cold options on the table as well as a better end D10 with ECM.

        

ECM ENS do show a trend up as we head into March though.

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Purga said:

Blimey - March heading towards record mild Bartlett territory according to GFS 00z.

Fortunately there is considerable spread and a few decent cold options on the table as well as a better end D10 with ECM.

        

ECM ENS do show a trend up as we head into March though.

The ECM trend is inevitable as those are the short ensembles and any blocking and subsequent cold is due after those finish .

For the timebeing given the other ops and the GFS performance in recent months I’d not be losing too much sleep over what it shows .

[Mike Poole]

With about 5 days to go until the zonal winds at 10 hPa 60N reverse sharply once more, models may be struggling, but the ECM clusters build on last night’s effort with the signal for cold getting a smidgen stronger this morning.  T192-T240:

From last night’s 4 clusters with 2 strongly supporting the Atlantic ridge into Greenland, we now have 2 from 3 clusters (1&3) totalling 34 members.  Cluster 2 not as clean and looks to push the vortex too far east.  

T264:

Cluster 1 remains excellent, with the representative member showing a direct hit.  Cluster 2 looks messy with the pattern disintegrating and UK high sinking.  I think this cluster will diminish once the models get wind of the second reversal upstairs.  

[nick sussex]

Something to bear in mind re northerly or ne flows in March .

Sea temps are normally at their coldest in the first half of the month and you don’t get the wishbone effect with showers reserved for north or ne facing coastal areas .

You often get inland convection with deep cold downdrafts .

Conversely that solar energy isn’t helpful for laying snow , so you’ll need to build your snowman in a shaded area ! 

[Ali1977]

15 minutes ago, Purga said:

Blimey - March heading towards record mild Bartlett territory according to GFS 00z.

Fortunately there is considerable spread and a few decent cold options on the table as well as a better end D10 with ECM.

        

ECM ENS do show a trend up as we head into March though.

ECM show a trend up as the transition to the Arctic blast  

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,GFS operational going on walk about an outlier looking at Gefs ensembles,ECM/GEM/UKMO all looking great for cold very /verycold later all on track for a wintery March and still more to come I think.

[Rain All Night]

The coldest day currently showing up within the more reliable timeframe is next Tuesday, with the UKMO having found the lowest 2m temps for this day.

Edited February 22, 2023 by RainAllNight

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

With about 5 days to go until the zonal winds at 10 hPa 60N reverse sharply once more, models may be struggling, but the ECM clusters build on last night’s effort with the signal for cold getting a smidgen stronger this morning.  T192-T240:

From last night’s 4 clusters with 2 strongly supporting the Atlantic ridge into Greenland, we now have 2 from 3 clusters (1&3) totalling 34 members.  Cluster 2 not as clean and looks to push the vortex too far east.  

T264:

Cluster 1 remains excellent, with the representative member showing a direct hit.  Cluster 2 looks messy with the pattern disintegrating and UK high sinking.  I think this cluster will diminish once the models get wind of the second reversal upstairs.  

The second cluster looks more like what could have happened to last nights op run . The first does eventually edge west with the block but that’s a long way off . Cluster 1 second image looks very wintry for the UK.

[Liam Burge]

50 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Much that I love your enthusiasm you do realise it’s always day 10? The amount of day 10s we have had lately should be around day 2 or 3 by now! Let’s hope these charts do make it before the end of March but time will tell. If in another week it’s day 10 I really would just start looking for day 10 thunderstorms and heat personally 

Because the main event isn't happening until after 10 days? It's been steadily counting down each day. As you can see by most model runs posted on here, around the 4th or 5th seems to be go which is in around 10/11 days time. However; this signal for around the 4th/5th was showing 5+ days ago, so would have been in around 15/16 days time. The signal is there for something very good for us, and I'm getting excited about the countdown.

[andymusic]

32 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

Good morning folks. I've been watching the effects of the SSW unfold in the models.  

I think it's going to come from the North rather than East this time around . Just like 2006.

 

 

 

I think you might be right - Siberian temps this year hit record lows of -60 degrees - finger losing and toe losing type weather LOL - but it does look like the ARTIC TRAIN of cold will be doing it's best to FREEZE us possibly Feb/March 2018 Redux or even longer with a December 2010 REDUX - batten down the hatches - get the supplies in - and HUNKER DOWN! Best advice to give! Exciting stuff!