Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Unpredictable Seasons]

Qué será, será
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Qué será, será
What will be, will be... 

[snowray]

Just now, Don said:

A 2018 repeat was always highly unlikely though.  Something akin to March 2008, however, is more realistic.

Look at all that lovely cold air in the east, just imagine if it had our name written on it, could easily be another 2018, we are still in the ssw lottery remember with our lucky ticket. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Look at all that lovely cold air in the east, just imagine if it had our name written on it, could easily be another 2018, we are still in the ssw lottery remember with our lucky ticket. 

Gonna be in Norway skiing in that cold  

[Purga]

18 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A few flurries for eastern most areas around day 11 , but the high is too far east on the 18z …

Really? Looks like an atrocious chart to me.

[snowray]

6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Gonna be in Norway skiing in that cold  

Too cold, Algeria might be better though for a snow fix, although I notice that Morocco misses out this time.

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by snowray

[alexisj9]

There's this at 180, huge outlier though p20

Edited February 24, 2023 by alexisj9

[BandsOfSnow77]

It's way to early, things will change again up until the end of this month when we will be 7-10 days away from what we want & it's same again roller coaster stuff. 

[Battleground Snow]

Another great mean and control, but  its just hard to believe it after the constant pushing back of favourable synoptics.

[alexisj9]

P27 way into fl,268 I think.

[northwestsnow]

This is the  snowfall trend since 1973

The evidence is overwhelming, it's defo not my imagination!!

In particular NW Europe becoming a snow desert..

It's a very interesting if depressing analysis.

Big winners in +NAO are the Turks.

Edited February 25, 2023 by northwestsnow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

 

 

Your posts are becoming tedious..Whether its Summer or Winter it's always the same mockery and doomed to fail from you. Instead of posting gifs and getting a rise out of folks try posting some charts for a change! 

It really grinds my gears how some just say its never gonna work out cause it never does attitude. Apart from the favourable met update there's plenty of interest in a fair few ens that would definitely bring wintry syonotics..and I've only viewed a few of them.

Perhaps some should come back in 2 weeks if it's gone wrong...then feel free to congratulate yourselves...until then keep stum.

[Daniel*]

All this talking about day 10 charts never verifying… well forecasts from ECM and GFS were pretty spot on with Atlantic ridging and cooler northerly winds. 

day 10 forecast for 24/02

actual

[The Enforcer]

I thought some viewers might find it useful to see a random selection of GEFS charts for the same timeframe to give a more balanced representation of how the near future might pan out:

[Lookeast4winter]

6 minutes ago, Lookeast4winter said:

 

Keep up the good analysis Matt always like your posts, you bring a bit of humour and perspective when needed  

 

[Gadje]

18 minutes ago, MATT TATTOO said:

Your posts are becoming tedious..Whether its Summer or Winter it's always the same mockery and doomed to fail from you. Instead of posting gifs and getting a rise out of folks try posting some charts for a change! 

It really grinds my gears how some just say its never gonna work out cause it never does attitude. Apart from the favourable met update there's plenty of interest in a fair few ens that would definitely bring wintry syonotics..and I've only viewed a few of them.

Perhaps some should come back in 2 weeks if it's gone wrong...then feel free to congratulate yourselves...until then keep stum.

Dont be disheartend Matt. Folk like me, like you, like most who come here on this site for winter come here excited in December (November for me) with hope of the seasonal weather our little Isle seldom provides.

[skifreak]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

This is the  snowfall trend since 1973

The evidence is overwhelming, it's defo not my imagination!!

In particular NW Europe becoming a snow desert..

It's a very interesting if depressing analysis.

Big winners in +NAO are the Turks.

Apologies to mods for a slight thread hijack - but is an equivalent map available for North America? 

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo close to bringing in the cold as early as day 8, if that system in the Atlantic plays ball.

Gfs we have to wait until day 10 for the fireworks to begin.. 

I won't be posting the gems latest thoughts.

 

[andymusic]

ECM 00z looking primed and ready to go for coldies

[Ali1977]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo close to bringing in the cold as early as day 8, if that system in the Atlantic plays ball.

Gfs we have to wait until day 10 for the fireworks to begin.. 

I won't be posting the gems latest thoughts.

 

ECM like the UKMO at 168, this would be big if it falls right at 192

[Chesil View]

A few flatliners around  minus 10 850's appearing around 8th March on the over night 0z gfs and they're for Weymouth!!!.  A development worthy of note if it maintains on future runs.

Edited February 25, 2023 by Chesil View

[Ali1977]

17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM like the UKMO at 168, this would be big if it falls right at 192

Looks good , slightly sharper into Greenland would have been nice so let’s hope the heights hold 

 

216 is cold but not where we want the trough for snow chances - tough going this

Next 

 

240 looks ok actually, possibly about the drop the real cold out way, a long way off though. 

Edited February 25, 2023 by Ali1977

[MattH]

Take a look at the N Hem view of the 00Z ECMWF - https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=ecm&var=1&time=216&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24

To me, that is one of the first runs that shows a more obvious and large change in trop pattern linked to the SSW. Note how earlier in the forecast period the low heights and low pressure systems dominate over the Canadian arctic and Alaska. Run through the sequence and get towards the end of the first week of March and - boom - the whole pattern over that region of the N Hem has rapidly changed, along with a clear and obvious displacement of the main tPV to where you would expect it given the strat developments as well.

Time will tell whether it's a one-off run, but that has stood out significantly this morning and needs watching closely but continues to tie in with the broader expectations and risks looking ahead in terms of northern blocking and colder air eventually arriving from the N or NE, etc.

Cheers.

[KTtom]

ECM / GEM sticking together with a sinker stinker! If were not getting cold, may as well have this as we head into week 2 March..

[Lukesluckybunch]

Well you really couldn't make it up..ECM for once looked decent 168-192 ..you would think it would get even better after in fact it got worse..consistency is very poor at the moment the trend from a few days ago..seems to be fading in my opinion.

Edited February 25, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[NorthYorksWeather]

28 minutes ago, KTtom said:

ECM / GEM sticking together with a sinker stinker! If were not getting cold, may as well have this as we head into week 2 March..

 

18 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Well you really couldn't make it up..ECM for once looked decent 168-192 ..you would think it would get even better after in fact it got worse..consistency is very poor at the moment the trend from a few days ago..seems to be fading in my opinion.

Surprised at such negative comments regarding the ECM this morning. It’s a huge improvement to last nights run, especially  in the short term and if you look at the 216-240 timeframe it’s likely the colder air to the NE will filter our way as the low to the west spawns a shortwave across towards Scandi which would acts as our “trigger low” to advect the coldest air over Norway towards us. GFS has shown the scenario a handful of times over the last couple of days so perhaps we are seeing some agreement on how we MIGHT manage to advect some decent cold air our way. 
UKMO is similar to the EC this morning which is good news, fingers crossed for some further upgrades as the day progresses.