Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Nick2373]

00z still shows the colder conditions from the 05th to the 09th then a warm up with quite a lot of spikes nothing spectacular in terms of  disruptive weather for all, i think this will be the last chance saloon before the sun really kicks in mid month, for now overcast in the South with possilbe sleet showers Wednesday low levels, and some snow showers high ground. 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Nick2373

[Nick2373]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Good to see ECM makes little of the shortwave drama.

You can just see it at 120 running NW of Iceland into Greenland

 

Let's hope UKMO and GFS tone it down or get rid this afternoon.

The pattern is backing to far west, but things can change you never know.  

[Chesil View]

A much better ecm for the south this morning compared with last night's four day fiasco.

0z keeps it cold out to day ten

[mbrothers]

2 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

The pattern is backing to far west, but things can change you never know.  

Exactly.they change every run as most posts on here show 

[chris55]

15 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Low to the south at day 9 brings heavy snow to parts of the south - very knife-edge as ever.

That’ll do! 
 

At this time of year a few frosts and a good snow day followed by spring would suit many I would think

[seabreeze86]

ECM is fantastic this morning but it’s the pick of the bunch. UKMO is starting to muck around delaying the cold and the GFS is a bit of a mess as always 

Edited March 1, 2023 by seabreeze86

[Ali1977]

Looking at T192 the heights over the Arctic hold well, if the SSW/MJO is still doing it’s thing then the models may still be struggling , we are good in the reliable and things could yet get much better in FI - hopefully a day of upgrades regarding longevity , sliders reigniting the colder northerly feed maybe . 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

And just for fun should the ECM come to fruition at day 9/10 the temperatures are impressive, Ice day for many next Fri followed by a nationwide severe frost. 
 

Probably best case scenario but we’ll see. 

[sheikhy]

Bangin bangin ecm this morning!!!thats exactly what we need!!gfs flapping around as always!!ukmo looks much better to me this morning compared to 12z!!bring on the cold and snow!!!!!

[Tim Bland]

Nice!

[Rain All Night]

The ECM op is not entirely without support...

...having said that, beyond Weds 8th March is clearly deep FI...

Edited March 1, 2023 by RainAllNight

[NewEra21]

Let's hope the ECM has got this right, as it's just so much better than the GFS in terms of everything if you're looking for cold and snow.

Colder 850s, more snow chances and longer longevity.

[NewEra21]

I know snow charts are purely just for fun, but the difference between the ECM and GFS is night and day by next Wednesday.

Edited March 1, 2023 by NewEra21

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Nice!

Delicious.

Personally I am not worried about longevity, I think we will get that, just so long as we get the initial block aligned and cold push.

If and when that shortwave spoiler/brat has been pout to bed I will feel much better and even if we do get the breakdown we could go out on a high.

I honestly expect the cold spell to be lengthened within the ensembles and output once that shortwave has been dealt with and the models realise no amount of salts are going to get the PV off the canvas.

[winterof79]

Just now, NewEra21 said:

I know snow charts are purely just for fun, but the difference between the ECM and GFS is night and day.

And both probably wrong when you've been through this as many times as some of us

[Ali1977]

There’s obviously a cluster going the milder route by next Wed but the majority stay colder till the end of the week - let’s hope the majority (including the op) have this nailed !! It all looks good to me

Edited March 1, 2023 by Ali1977

[EML Network]

what a mess we've woken up to this morning....Icon 0z below..

Seems to me that this is the direction of travel, is battleground territory.. not exactly as modelled but its looking more and more like its headed towards battleground territory on many of the models. I think its a case of seeing just how far South and West the really deep cold can travel now, before milder air from the Atlantic wins out...if indeed it actually does...and if it does...where will that battleground take place....?

Edited March 1, 2023 by EML Network

[sheikhy]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Nice!

Just the 15cms for me on the 11th of march!!!damn thats a bit dissapointing!!!!

[That ECM]

T168. Going to be a nervous 48 hrs. Talk it up, talk it down doesn’t really matter. Been awhile since we’ve had a behind the sofa watch as the output came out but that’s where we are now I would suggest.

[nick sussex]

Amen for the ECM !

The GFS and UKMO going the wrong way this morning and it rides into save the mood .

Mogreps still look solid but those two ops are a concern .

There really are stark differences to the north and little confidence at this point as to which trend is correct .

As ever more runs needed ....

[Harsh Climate]

I wouldn't worry about the gfs06z  just scanning through the ensemble perturbations and there are many many good runs!  We only saw the bad one.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

I wouldn't worry about the gfs06z  just scanning through the ensemble perturbations and there are many many good runs!  We only saw the bad one.

Hasn’t come out yet but I rarely do.

[sunnijim]

You would certainly rather have the ECM and mogreeps on your side.

If we were sat here with the GfS and UKMO advertising the best options for cold and ECM and Mogreeps calling for a quick breakdown you would start to worry.

UKMO past 144hrs is notoriously flakey and the GFS is just being GFS and trying different paths forward.

No doubt a middle ground will be the way here, unfortunately for those in the South it maybe a blink and you will miss it snap, with some real fun and games further North as the cold hangs on.

I just don't see the cold being swept aside rapidly countrywide.

We had that option in December from models and the cold hung on for two weeks, together with numerous other examples down the years of cold blocks being removed too quickly.

 

[Harsh Climate]

9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Hasn’t come out yet but I rarely do.

Haha school boy error, just noticed 00z

Must have my snow tinted glasses on this morning 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[Ali1977]

Looking at the EC mean even by 120 it looks better, more heights around NE Greenland compared to its 0z

 

control shows this well at 138 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Ali1977