Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

We should be fine here at 144..let's wait and see

Or not. Still to far out to call.

Edited March 3, 2023 by That ECM

[Ali1977]

Might just get a snow event from that need a good 168 

[January Snowstorm]

Milder air wins on ecm again though the trend further South did occur. Still no reason to panic as further nudges South quite likely. However uncertainty continues...

[KTtom]

Status Quo from ECM...Milder push by Thursday from the Atlantic...ukmo comes up with a low, which had GFS shown it would be laughed at...and gfs op continues its lone furrow inretaining cold until 14th....clear as mud !

Overall, if you take a mean from that lot, I would be happy living central/northern England, North east Wales. 

Edited March 3, 2023 by KTtom

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Or not.

Looks like a slower inroad of the LP and slightly more slider like - I think that’ll be snow 

 

MMM, mixture - better than earlier and the UKMO turned out ok at 168 

Edited March 3, 2023 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Or not. Still to far out to call.

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Or not. Still to far out to call.

Hmm colder 850's still in place..but for how long?

[Ali1977]

168 not bad, a tweak south and it could get Interesting for many 

[Lloyd1]

These day time temps on the models are still very mild for serious disruption mind. I’m staying optimistic but I can’t ignore this factor 

[January Snowstorm]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

168 not bad, a tweak south and it could get Interesting for many 

No heights to our North though!! So while it's better than last night there's only one direction of travel from here. Disappointing considering the hype over an SSW if this is all it can achieve! Not too much better than a 2 day toppler where I live.

Let's remain optimistic though, the ecm is on its own again this morning

[nick sussex]

Putting aside how far north the low moves in from the west the major news this morning is the ECM starts performing a backtrack and has dropped the early pattern change across the USA .

This was part of the issue with last nights run as that effects the troughing in the west Atlantic and has downstream impacts .

 

[KTtom]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

168 not bad, a tweak south and it could get Interesting for many 

A bit more than a tweak!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, KTtom said:

A bit more than a tweak!

Exactly no point trying to sugar coat..it's poor again!

[Ali1977]

Just now, KTtom said:

A bit more than a tweak!

Day 7, a tweak at that range can be 500 miles. Fingers crossed anyway 

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Day 7, a tweak at that range can be 500 miles. Fingers crossed anyway 

That’s the tweak between the last 2 runs by the way 

[TallPaul]

8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Garbage from ECM everything too far North..I'm wondering will this cold spell actually take off,we are starting to clutch at straws now..2 ECM runs in a row surely has to be onto something.

Now now Luke... It's 6.46am - wayyyy too early for knee-jerking!

[Penicuikblizzard]

18 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Milder air wins on ecm again though the trend further South did occur. Still no reason to panic as further nudges South quite likely. However uncertainty continues...

Looking good for the North of the country on the ECM not a bad chart  

[EML Network]

Truly sobering output over lasy 24 hours for us Southerners.

Of course there is still time for things to change but the closer we get the more likely it is that those in the South like me...will barely notice any difference to how it is now...only it will be a lot wetter and much windier

 

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Going on this latest ECM run its looking more and more likely,it's going to be changeable spell with cold shots thrown in,rather then a very cold and wintery outlook..I'm the other hand gfs looks a bit more promising

Life on here will be tough for you Luke if you think GFS is only promising.

Many changes to come and ECM is coming back in the right direction as Nick posted.

[nick sussex]

The ECM isn’t convincing and hardly covering itself with glory because of its erroneous output upstream . I’ve circled the two areas of major difference .

Last nights run to T180 hrs.                This mornings run to T168 hrs.

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Life on here will be tough for you Luke if you think GFS is only promising.

Many changes to come and ECM is coming back in the right direction as Nick posted.

Ok but you can't deny that the last two ECM runs havnt been great,and even in the shorter term it doesn't look as good as it did few days back that's just my opinion..I like to keep it real

Edited March 3, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[nick sussex]

The morning outputs admittedly aren’t as good for the south but  increase the risk of significant snow further north .

I think that’s a pretty fair assessment . However the track of the Channel low is still subject to revision so we’re bound to see more changes .

 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ok but you can't deny that the last two ECM runs havnt not great,and even in the shorter term it doesn't look as good as it did few days back that's just my opinion..I like to keep it real

It ain't where you start it's where you finish.

Why take ECM as gospel?

It is very different to last nights run.

We are here to analyse and discuss each Operational output but that isn't the same as picking one model and assuming it has the weather just right 7 days out when that ahs never happened once, ever!

It is just a guide to the direction of travel and sometimes they point the wrong way completely.

That low could easily be a few hundred miles South or even slip into the continent or least likely push further N or it may not develop at all and just pass to the South as a weak feature.

ECM Op may not be great but it is a big improvement on yesterday and a few hundred miles N or S for a system modelled a week away is absolutely nothing.

 

 

[JamesL]

Looks like the ECM sniffed out the more northerly approach of the low last eve. And now sadly the UKMO has also sniffed it out. As always in these cases betting against the 2 Euros over the American model is a dangerous move 

 

cold for 2-3 days before a messy breakdown from the SW is pretty much what we will have by the looks of it 

 

let’s move on and look for spring. Personally it was all to good 24-48 hours ago 

 

One could argue that things may well correct south but it’s a worrying trend this morning 

 

I think by the 00’s tonight we will know our fate 

 

 

[mulzy]

MOGREPS solid for cold even in the south.

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The morning outputs admittedly aren’t as good for the south but  increase the risk of significant snow further north .

I think that’s a pretty fair assessment . However the track of the Channel low is still subject to revision so we’re bound to see more changes .

 

The GFS had nearly a foot covering most of Hampshire and parts of Devon, i don't rate the Ecm for either S or N though.

[sheikhy]

Gona ignore that ukmo cos the way it blows that low is madness!!!big news this morning ecm is a big improvement!!it also looks like it gives multiple snowfalls north england/midlands!!!gfs please be right for once lol!!