Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Cambrian]

Oh no, guys, my head!!! 

12z GFS op day 7 / day 8

  

What on earth should I dig out of the drawer for next weekend? 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Good God folks I'm struggling to keep up..your gonna crash the servers.. God help us if the ECM goes wrong..even though it won't spell the end due too the complicated circumstances...I can imagine the scene with some of you later this evening.

I think people have already forgotten the way the models moved away from the Atlantic high, then moved back to it, the low is actually in that same time frame right now. Guess we'll find out in a few days. However this one, even once general track is known, right up until t0 it could move onehundred miles north or south.

[raul_sbd]

Big ECM coming up peps…

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

Big ECM coming up peps…

Agreed….let’s move on from recent posts 

[Garthvader]

ECM roll out.......hides behind sofa!

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

GEM looking v v good 

If it takes the low too far south it’s a positive regarding the UKMO being wrong 

Once again a lot are assuming a West to East movement that is the norm, the US pattern & rotated US fed Greeny block, needs to be viewed from the perspective that the Eastern flank is working against the normal Westerly rotation, hence lows more likely to get squashed by the Omega high.

Models clearly struggling with the reverse flow, so expect scatter

 

[BlackburnChris]

Even though , the 850's don't look great , If you look at the Precipitaion Type charts , All them fronts fall as Snow way from the far south Coast .. 

[TEITS]

Disappointed with the overall trend these past 24hrs. Apart from a trend to shorten the cold spell the chances of convective snowfall has largely downgraded. We then have the low pressure which currently suggests a more N,ly track than expected.

Thankfully plenty of time for changes to occur. However just a reminder to those especially in the S that this cold spell could only bring some backedged snow on monday night, followed by a short spell of snow before turning to rain and milder by Thursday!

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

GEM looking v v good 

If it takes the low too far south it’s a positive regarding the UKMO being wrong 

I’ve only just noticed the GEM’s WOW output ….

 

[Ali1977]

UKMO vs ECM at T96. ECM

has a better northerly flow through the U.K., will that help I wonder

 

Not sure where it’s going, the ECM has heights holding SE Greenland but will that be enough to stop the Northwood progression of the LP 

Edited March 3, 2023 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

18 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Once again a lot are assuming a West to East movement that is the norm, the US pattern & rotated US fed Greeny block, needs to be viewed from the perspective that the Eastern flank is working against the normal Westerly rotation, hence lows more likely to get squashed by the Omega high.

Models clearly struggling with the reverse flow, so expect scatter

 

Isn’t that blue feature to the left of the Omega you’ve drawn actually a 1055 hPa High?

[More Runs Needed]

Personally, that low is in a perfect location for me however, it's important to reiterate, in the past, these lows are usually modelled to slide further south as T+0 approaches as the strength of the cold block is underestimated

[NewEra21]

Feels like the opportunity for any convection or features coming down in the northerly flow is getting shorter and shorter, as we just don't maintain the flow long enough in recent runs.

Edited March 3, 2023 by NewEra21

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Next Wednesday we have a broad sector of -8 to -10c North to South! So this helps

[Guest]

On the face of it Tuesday sees the best opportunity for convective showers but the ECMWF 12z shows it to be dry for the majority.  The convective potential of this cold spell/snap being downgraded by the run.

[supernova]

ECM southward correction so far…..

 
 

Although can’t help but feel this has trended more snap than spell overall. Fine margins as ever.

Edited March 3, 2023 by supernova

[Ali1977]

Edited March 3, 2023 by Ali1977

[Guest]

ECMWF 144hrs

The low further south, but milder air well into the south:

 

Rain/snow band nothing too intense:

Edited March 3, 2023 by Guest

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Next Wednesday we have a broad sector of -8 to -10c North to South! So this helps

Dry though unfortunately due to the surface high 

[DecSeventeen]

This will likely be ignored as I've never posted on here before, however I've been a regular winter lurker since 2018, so really it's about time I got on with it and actually did a post.

This whole situation, the question of whether the low will move through too far N, too far S, give snow to the N, to the S, bring in mild air too quickly and so on and so on is one that isn't going to be resolved for several days yet, this is something that's been said many times already yes I know, just thought I'd restate that.

One thing that I think is important to note though is that opinions on any individual run/model is going to vary greatly dependent on the location of the poster - anyone in southern England will say a run that shows rain for them a poor run, even if that same run has a major snow event for northern England. And I'm not in any way suggesting that this is a bad thing, because yes of course everyone wants the snow in their location, so everyone will post their opinions based on that, but just want to highlight the way that that can make following the situation pretty confusing for everyone since so many different opinions are getting thrown around, based on location.

For my location, something like the GFS 12z today would be the absolute sweet spot, I wouldn't want things ending up much further N or S of that scenario however we all know that in the intervening 6 days, it's pretty likely to end up somewhere else. Wherever things end up, the only certain thing is that there's going to be a whole lot of changes and swings in the next few days, and I think the best thing to hope for at this stage is just that the low ends up tracking in a position which will give snow to somewhere in the country. We all hope that somewhere will be our respective locations, but ultimately it's just nice to have such exciting model output to watch despite being pretty late in the season.

[January Snowstorm]

Quite a snowy ecm, very different to ukmo

Game back on!!

[seabreeze86]

3 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

On the face of it Tuesday sees the best opportunity for convective showers but the ECMWF 12z shows it to be dry for the majority.  The convective potential of this cold spell/snap being downgraded by the run.

That’s actually a upgrade on this morning for us east coast dwellers 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Quite a snowy ecm, very different to ukmo

Game back on!!

where would the snow line be at 144?

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I feel exhausted already and it's still 5-6 days away

[January Snowstorm]

8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

where would the snow line be at 144?

I would have thought either side of M4 in UK. Too early to tell really, for where I live a nudge South is needed and will likely happen