Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[GokouD]

25 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM and GFs both have the sweet spot as central areas & wales later in the week. All still to play for with lots of changes to come I  think ..

I think I could forgive the South getting all the snow in the first event if that came off!

[Theresnoway]

1 minute ago, Tidal Wave said:

ICON 06z trends a little north for the Wednesday feature:

 vs 

Probably best to compare charts that relate to the same time.

[sheikhy]

Well as a midlander i aint complaining this morning!!but i know it aint gona happen like that and i probably get a lashing of rain whilst northern england gets a snowy pummeling!!!

[Met4Cast]

The GFS det seems overly enthusiastic about multiple channel sliders and is a clear outlier against the pack.

Pretty clear the cold spell will be over by next weekend thanks to Greenland blocking easing & the Iberian high poking it's unwanted nose into things. However; plenty of snow potential just about everywhere before we get to that point.

[geordiekev]

16 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS det seems overly enthusiastic about multiple channel sliders and is a clear outlier against the pack.

Pretty clear the cold spell will be over by next weekend thanks to Greenland blocking easing & the Iberian high poking it's unwanted nose into things. However; plenty of snow potential just about everywhere before we get to that point.

Fairly different the further North you go though, so not an overall forecast, as the det follows the mean quite nicely 

Edited March 4, 2023 by geordiekev

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 02/03/2023 at 20:27, feb1991blizzard said:

How long do you think the cold will last and what % of March will be cold enough for snow chances?

10-15 day event.  Yes widespread snow.  Still lots to be played out in FI

 

 

 

BFTP

[Bricriu]

12 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS det seems overly enthusiastic about multiple channel sliders and is a clear outlier against the pack.

Pretty clear the cold spell will be over by next weekend thanks to Greenland blocking easing & the Iberian high poking it's unwanted nose into things. However; plenty of snow potential just about everywhere before we get to that point.

I think the cold may hang on in Scotland with a renewed push of cold southwards  around the middle of March 

[MattStoke]

19 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Well as a midlander i aint complaining this morning!!but i know it aint gona happen like that and i probably get a lashing of rain whilst northern england gets a snowy pummeling!!!

Don’t be so pessimistic.

You could be left high and dry instead.

[IDO]

The low is much further south on this run, so it misses the UK completely, just the trailing front:

 

[mulzy]

Seems Like the 6z GFS is pushing everything south regards the Weds / Thurs event to such an extent it’s a blank even for most of Southern England.

[Derecho]

What an interesting morning of model output we have. It seems as though we will get disrupting lows later next week and some places could see a good dumping of snow, others with lots of rain.

I notice the 06z GFS has higher pressure over Iceland (about 5mb comparing the 2 frames) and the rise in Iberian heights isn't matching it on Thursday so whether we stay in the cold depends on how deep the lows approaching us get. Higher pressure over Iceland could lead to a decent northerly reload on the back of clearing lows.

Very difficult to forecast.

[johnholmes]

27 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

10-15 day event.  Yes widespread snow.  Still lots to be played out in FI

 

 

 

BFTP

?charts to back that time scale up please?

[sunnijim]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS det seems overly enthusiastic about multiple channel sliders and is a clear outlier against the pack.

Pretty clear the cold spell will be over by next weekend thanks to Greenland blocking easing & the Iberian high poking it's unwanted nose into things. However; plenty of snow potential just about everywhere before we get to that point.

I arrived here today after looking at the charts first rather than vise versa as I normally do.

Anyone who ever bothers to read my ramblings here will know I normally try to find the positives in terms of the hunt for cold and snow and I was genuinely surprised to find the upbeat mood here based on what I had seen from the models, so well done all.

This written with a big disclaimer as the huge ensemble spread and volatility caused by repeated SSW can improve the situation as to how i have seen it.

The GFS looks like an utter shambles for anything other than a fleeting incursion of cold proper and snow for areas South of London.Wednesday being the day of limited potential.

After this it is a rain festival with tempratures of 11c forecast by Saturday.

The ECM holds out a little more hope but the boundary between the floodgates of mild and cold is paper thin.

Other models throw up similar offerings blended between ECM and GFS.

Midlands North clearly stay in the game for longer.

The problem as I see it seems to be the Atlantic Jet stream not being pushed far enough South into Europe after our initial cold plunge from the North on Tuesday, meaning that mild is never far away and we have little 'wriggle room" in keeping the mild from flooding back in over large parts of England if incoming Lows behave as advertised.

The vast majority of UK cold spells leave some hugely frustrated and others over the moon.

December 22 being frustrating for most but in SE London a snowfall that stuck for days and on a scale of anything seen in the last decade with major disruption caused.

It seems certain that is the direction of travel on this upcoming spell too.

Still time for alot to change but perhaps only on who is in the snow game and who isn't. next week.

Exciting times model watching for sure with potential of a reload the week beginning 13th March looking at some of the models, which does tie in with a M O further outlook released last week which suggested the week of 13th seemed more primed for snowy antics than the week coming.

It is March, and to be offered this after such a disappointing winter has to be some sort of bonus.

 

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

?charts to back that time scale up please?

It's hyberbolic nonsense.

Midweek snow event shifted south and the GFS 06z sticks with milder air returning later in the week:

[RhHh]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

The low is much further south on this run, so it misses the UK completely, just the trailing front:

 

Fascinating watching the different models. Wonder which one will verify. 

[BremX]

GFS once again with a massive dartboard low, skewing the output massively. 

Not sure where this is all going to lead, it's up for grabs which model ends up right.

[seabreeze86]

Looking at the bigger picture as nobody has a clue about where the lows will be next week 

Look at the the sneaky little build of pressure over Greenland on the 6z 

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

It's hyberbolic nonsense.

Midweek snow event shifted south and the GFS 06z sticks with milder air returning later in the week:

The same GFS that gave huge areas 20-30cm last run, so which one of those runs is hyperbolic nonsense?

[Mark wheeler]

Mogreps 0z 

main cluster stays cold until the 8th -9th before real scatter. 

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Mogreps 0z 

main cluster stays cold until the 8th -9th before real scatter. 

A sizeable number of ens members turn less cold in London after Monday there.

What an absolute mess

[snowspotter]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The same GFS that gave huge areas 20-30cm last run, so which one of those runs is hyperbolic nonsense?

Both to be honest no offence caused

[The Northern Ramper]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The same GFS that gave huge areas 20-30cm last run, so which one of those runs is hyperbolic nonsense?

The one where it doesn’t show cold, on every set of runs, four times a day.

[Theresnoway]

Given the amount of variance we’re seeing with regards to the position of Thursday’s low, within different runs and models, I think using postage stamps as a guide to probability is a better way forward than taking each deterministic as gospel. 

[Stuie]

To take a stab at where or which track any LP goes when we are starting from here on the GEFS is a heck of a punt.

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The same GFS that gave huge areas 20-30cm last run, so which one of those runs is hyperbolic nonsense?

Both.