Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[NorthYorksWeather]

Slightly disappointed to see the trend moving away from a North Easterly aspect to the flow that was modelled quite widely over the last few days, especially for Mon night into Tuesday. Those juicy convective showers and any possible disturbances moving across eastern areas into central regions have now disappeared with the models just showing showers grazing eastern coasts as what happened back in December. ECM does still keep some hope but the 6z UKMO shows the flow due north to slightly west of north.

 

[Kasim Awan]

No doubt the pattern is shifting north.

[alexisj9]

6 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Good run from the GFS this morning.  A good example of how the incoming Atlantic lows react to the block, which on this run is strong enough to make them disrupt, elongate, break up and slide on approach:

If we believe the block is continuing to exert pressure, then you would expect to see this rather than the dartboard low of the 18z.  Track of these lows, even the first one is massively uncertain still.  But given the runs coming out it is possible to envisage the train of w running more south as we approach T0 if some of the models are underplaying the blocking and therefore keeping the cold in place over more of the UK - obviously, snow chances for different regions conflate what is the ‘best’ track, but we just have to wait and see really.

Wow that is some graphic, west moving east, east moving west, I wonder why the models are lost.

[mbrothers]

13 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Wow that is some graphic, west moving east, east moving west, I wonder why the models are lost.

Crazy. For the forecasters it must be like predicting the winner of the grand national after just 2 fences with 40 horses left in.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This is what I've been talking about the last couple of days. Yes there's that trend to increase temperatures towards the end of next week. But look towards the NE...the warmer air never really makes it! Now head South towards the Midlands and you can see a little gathering of colder members.

Perhaps...and its a definite perhaps.. that those colder conditions may again attempt to head South. We are gonna need a few more days too firm up on this.

In the shorter term...keep an eye on latest met o warnings page for events cropping up at short notice.

Now it's the dreaded shopping day...with the mother..pick things up,put them down...ooooohhhh Matthew..it wasn't this expensive last week! On and on and on

 

Edited March 4, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[sheikhy]

Ecmwf 06z further south and west at 90 hours!!!!!

[steveinsussex]

25 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

No doubt the pattern is shifting north.

 

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecmwf 06z further south and west at 90 hours!!!!!

Lol

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

This is what I've been talking about the last couple of days. Yes there's that trend to increase temperature ls towards end of next week. But look towards the NE...the warmer air never really makes it! Now head South towards the Midlands and you can see a little gathering of colder members.

Perhaps...and its a definite perhaps.. that those colder conditions may again attempt to head South. We are gonna need a few more days too firm up on this.

In the shorter term...keep an eye on latest met o warnings page for events cropping up at short notice.

Now it's the dreaded shopping day...with the mother..pick things up,put them down...ooooohhhh Matthew..it wasn't this expensive last week! On and on and on

 

Is it me or has mogreps joined the colder cluster between 9th and 11th march mate?!!!if so thats an upgrade!!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

 

Lol

Rest assure it looks further south and west!!thats not to say the next low shall go further south though!!!it could go north a bit!!

[Daniel*]

I do think there are a growing number in here who post for a reaction, ultimately not much has changed in last 24 hours at all. Much of next week will be cold Tuesday/Wednesday perhaps better snow opportunities further south from Thursday-Friday more Midlands north. The weekend probably less cold further south but it could still remain wintry further north with ongoing risk of snow. 

[bluearmy]

42 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM is best case scenario for most with snow chances right out to day 10 and almost everyone’s seeing a covering at some point 

Gem snow charts are produced by Steve m

30 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

No doubt the pattern is shifting north.

We may have reached the limit on this out to day 6 as the eps 06z mean has corrected slightly south 

I guess the question is what happens after that with the next ejection from the lw Atlantic trough 

Edited March 4, 2023 by bluearmy

[Wingman Blue]

The overall trend appears to be holding, despite the daily fluctuations.

This is impressive, and whilst anything beyond 96 hours could be as right as wrong, we appear on track for a wintry few days.

Enjoy, you coldies!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is it me or has mogreps joined the colder cluster between 9th and 11th march mate?!!!if so thats an upgrade!!

Possibly yes Shaky...The telling picture is how far milder air will push North and if it comes against any resistance. Im feeling we could see another push from The NE towards the end of that run! It's a very complex and interesting situation though.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Very pleased with the developments and so much to cover in this post

First we are at the beginning of a super high amplitude MJO progression in phases 7 + 8 

What will the effects of this be? 

As was the case when in the Indian Ocean phases at the end of February we saw a westerly wind burst (WWB) "Many atmospheric weather phenomena act as stochastic forcing to ENSO.  The most effective one is strong episodes of surface westerly wind, often referred to as westerly wind bursts (WWB) 

Role of the MJO

The strongest, long-lasting and eastward moving equatorial WWE are mostly associated with the MJO.  These are all characteristics of WWE needed to efficiently generate oceanic Kelvin waves (Hendon et al. 1998). In addition, WWE associated with the MJO exhibit a basin-scale structure and they undergo strong interannual variability, both essential to ENSO responses.

Many observations have shown anomalously strong MJO activities prior to and during the onset of ENSO warm events " 

Influences of the MJO on ENSO | US CLIVAR

USCLIVAR.ORG

This MJO progression at high amplitude in phases 7 + 8 will be producing a substantial WWB which will bring the rare triple dip La Ninà to an end 

"La Niña has weakened in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is likely near its end."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#overview-section=Summary

Looking at the SST's in the ENSO region from January 

 and progressing forward to May we see the trend into El Ninò 

For Mid > latter stages of March we will see a fresh development of blocking ..be watching for high pressure setting up to the east and/or near to the UK with repeat retrogression into Greenland 

 

 

 

The Pacific Jet also receives a bit of a boost of energy thanks to these phases and those of you who follow my posts will remember that was a common pattern in December especially between Christmas and New Year, I don't think it will be as intense but California again under fire from atmospheric river style conditions which they really will struggle with as they are at the point of having TOO MUCH snow

Pretty cool we will be able to link the patterns a long way round the northern hemisphere thanks to the Pacific Jet 

Certainly opportunities over the next 7-10 days roughly, for snow events in various areas of the UK and frequent frosts some of which becoming increasingly severe particularly with any laying snow.

I created the March 1981 composite which has big similarities 

As mentioned the setup through the remainder of March >>

 

 

[seabreeze86]

ECM 6z makes far more of the disturbance tracking south on Monday night also keep the wind more northerly for longer so better chance of convection coming on shore Tuesday 

[Battleground Snow]

Quite a big shift south on the control run on the 06z ecm compared to 00z

Less of a blown up low too

Edited March 4, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Quite a big shift south on the control run on the 06z ecm compared to 00z

Less of a blown up low too

Was just about to post same thing mate!!both control and op take everything further south and west up to 144 hours!!!good if you like cold but for frontal snow maybe not as it will all scoot along the south coast lol!!!!

[Chesil View]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Was just about to post same thing mate!!both control and op take everything further south and west up to 144 hours!!!good if you like cold but for frontal snow maybe not as it will all scoot along the south coast lol!!!!

All scoot along the south coast.  Yippee.      Lol

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

ECM 6z makes far more of the disturbance tracking south on Monday night also keep the wind more northerly for longer so better chance of convection coming on shore Tuesday 

It’s rain south of Birmingham btw

[seabreeze86]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s rain south of Birmingham btw

As much as I want the south to get snow I’m more concerned with a couple of hundred miles further north

[Chrisover93]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s rain south of Birmingham btw

Why have you just looked into the future then crazy you are able to do that you know 

[offerman]

Looking forward to the next set of charts coming out this afternoon.

this from net weather set a potential is definitely there judging by this paragraph. 

” Into the middle to the latter part of next week, some significant snowfalls are possible in the southern half of Britain as frontal systems push in from the south-west and collide with the cold Arctic air mass. Rain is most likely in southern coastal counties of England, but on the northern flank of these systems, precipitation is likely to fall predominantly as snow. Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England are expected to remain cold and sunny, with some snow showers for northern Scotland and some scattered snow showers breaking out elsewhere during the daytime.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Chrisover93 said:

Why have you just looked into the future then crazy you are able to do that you know 

On those charts you posted it’s rain south of Birmingham 

this is the model discussion thread 

 

Edited March 4, 2023 by bluearmy

[alexisj9]

9 minutes ago, Chrisover93 said:

Why have you just looked into the future then crazy you are able to do that you know 

Think he is on about the showers Infront of the front, they wil be rain, warm sector SW of the low in the North sea. Might get some snow once it drops south though, not expecting much, but I guess we'll find out Tuesday, what it actually does.

[Methuselah]

24 minutes ago, Chrisover93 said:

Why have you just looked into the future then crazy you are able to do that you know 

But isn't clairvoyance what this thread is all about?