Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Nick F]

Difficult trying to keep up with the nuances of each model for each run for each day next week from Tuesday.

18z GFS seems to have pepped up the snow on the back edge of the front clearing S England Tuesday morning, but often overdoes the snow signal on back edge of fronts. 18z ICON has a snow event across far S Wales and S England on Wednesday, GFS S England south of M4 Wednesday night. Not even worth going any further, can't cope!

Edited March 4, 2023 by Nick F

[offerman]

11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Difficult trying to keep up with the nuances of each model for each run for each day next week from Tuesday.

18z GFS seems to have pepped up the snow on the back edge of the front clearing S England Tuesday morning, but often overdoes the snow signal on back edge of fronts. 18z ICON has a snow event across far S Wales and S England on Wednesday, GFS S England south of M4 Wednesday night. Not even worth going any further, can't cope!

Fair play to you Nick. A forecasters nightmare for sure but keep up the good work and great headlines writeups  and posts in the thread. 

[Daniel*]

Sharp frosts next week. Wednesday morning looks particularly cold. Based on ECM 12z. 

Monday morning

Tuesday morning

Wednesday morning

Thursday morning

[Man With Beard]

24 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Difficult trying to keep up with the nuances of each model for each run for each day next week from Tuesday.

18z GFS seems to have pepped up the snow on the back edge of the front clearing S England Tuesday morning, but often overdoes the snow signal on back edge of fronts. 18z ICON has a snow event across far S Wales and S England on Wednesday, GFS S England south of M4 Wednesday night. Not even worth going any further, can't cope!

Agreed - beyond T96 is just too far out to develop any certainty about. But it's notable that we end the day with Tuesday/ Wednesday snow potential still on the table.

[damianslaw]

I've not bothered to comment on the models today, as the reliable timeframe is exceptionally short at present, 72 hrs just about, and fully expect lots more variance and change with the projection of atlantic low pressure breakthrough.. and this comment will no doubt be equally valid by end of tomorrow. There are times it pays to conserve energy and inhibit reaction to each run and this weekend is one of them.

Edited March 4, 2023 by damianslaw

[Don]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Another snow to rain event !! I’m in the mind set that things can’t get worse, and tomorrow will bring good news!! 
And for now I’ll hope to see a few flakes or a covering on Tue !! 

 

It’s a good snow event up north though

 

 

To be fair, you had a great snowfall in December when many areas further north saw next to none!

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

To be fair, you had a great snowfall in December when many areas further north saw next to none!

That's not true for all of the SE. But anyway enough of the arguments. I'm not looking past Wednesday, as even that is still changing every run. We'll see what the next low will do in a few days.

[Wingman Blue]

46 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Sharp frosts next week. Wednesday morning looks particularly cold. Based on ECM 12z. 

Monday morning

Tuesday morning

Wednesday morning

Thursday morning

The Monday morning temp for my location - 0•C will be met in a couple of hours and it’s overcast.

if anything it’ll be colder than these charts over the next couple of days.

[Guest]

With a mean like that from later this week winter is finally on its way out. Takes something truly exceptional to see laying snow down here beyond the middle of March. Onwards and upwards (as I’m sure the temperatures will go for the next 16weeks) 

[Pixel]

2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Just hope there’s as much snow potential further North towards Lillehammer ski resorts next week as the Op shows for Oslo.

Could do with getting my final snow fix of the winter in Norway..

is there a chance you could go there a few days early... and report back, in a couple of weeks.. with photos please

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:

Mate, give it a rest, it stopped being funny ages ago. 

I don't think he's trying to be funny, he's just excited about the trip. 

[geordiekev]

The latest GEFS MSLP anomolies confirming what a rare pattern we have coming up, so model geographical biases will struggle for a while. Of particular note is the USA wide Height anomolies, suggesting a stagnant, yet amplified, pattern.

Of interest at the mid month point is a return of height anomolies in the Greeny & Scandi area.

Sorry for looking so far ahead but the next few days up in the air on UK wide specifics, so giving them bit of a swerve and always try to avoid imby posts leading up to cold spells as at 777ft & 55⁰N keep my proper ramping to the regionals

Edited March 5, 2023 by geordiekev

[kumquat]

18Z says: Big Daddy Atlantic low (hardly trying to break through) spawning 3 channel lows in a wraparound train effect ending in a col. Snow in many places nationwide during this period.
Gets juicier at 270 but the cold pool has gone. Out there is well into la la land. Interesting early spring.

Edited March 5, 2023 by kumquat

[Kentspur]

Start the day as you mean to go on. Lets hope for short term upgrades- slight upgrade on Icon 0z compared to the 18z for Wednesday even Cornwall's inside the 0c 850HPa. Thursday also a similar difference though Cornwalls in the + 850s by this stage but looks better for those central/ northern areas id assume.

Edited March 5, 2023 by Kentspur

[Jackski4]

7 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Start the day as you mean to go on. Lets hope for short term upgrades- slight upgrade on Icon 0z compared to the 18z for Wednesday even Cornwall's inside the 0c 850HPa. Thursday also a similar difference though Cornwalls in the + 850s by this stage but looks better for those central/ northern areas id assume.

Interesting to see those 850s as low as that all the way down in Cornwall. Although Cornwall does warm up later on in the week as you said those further north best off. Brief warm up potentially next weekend for the south/south west/Cornwall but staying colder further north HOPEFULLY before the cold spreads south again.

[Kentspur]

Mild weekend on UKMO unbelievable how quickly the pattern deteriorates!

How id love the GEM 0z run to come off were nearly all back in minus 8-10c uppers by Sunday and most places seeing some of Andys Welsh white gold even much of Ireland and Cornwall! And Scotland gets buried as it does also on the GFS run which shows falling but not settling snow for us Southern&SEners. 

 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Kentspur

[Weather-history]

I think a little bit of straw clutching is now starting to appear in posts about where FI begins and we are unsure after xxhrs, I think it is becoming a bit clearer that by next weekend the chances of milder air masses  making big  inroads is increasing.

How we get there is more uncertain, how much snow is involved and if there are any sliders etc

However just because the foreground is blurred doesn’t mean the background is just as blurred or blurrier still, sometimes it can be a little more focus and I cite Christmas Day 2021 as an example. It was uncertain how advanced the cold air would dig in, whether there will be snow that Christmas day, however New Year prospects were much clearer, it was warming up big time.

I even posted a Roman soldier looking at a sign post saying “All roads lead to Rome”

I don’t think it is clear cut as that but maybe it is not as blurred as some may think.

[geordiekev]

GFS moving snow risks bit further North, retaining cold further North throughout. Is this another one of those weekends/days where the overnighters wobble for the day to improve? Seeing as the rotated Canadian fed block is yet to kick in the next 48/72hrs, defo not worth worrying yet

Edited March 5, 2023 by geordiekev
Add chart

[Ali1977]

Mmmm, is that an ECM shift north

 

Or is it the mild coming in quick!! 
 

Mild by Friday, possibly a better battleground chance but then it’s a quick game over!! 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Considering there’s an SSW at play, and favourable MJO this is a complete let down , from great looking to really bad looking in 5 days!! Even im Ready to concede

Edited March 5, 2023 by Ali1977

[Kentspur]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Mmmm, is that an ECM shift north

 

Or is it the mild coming in quick!! 
 

Mild by Friday, possibly a better battleground chance but then it’s a quick game over!! 

Well I spy a blue pixel around about Steve Murrs house 5-10 miles south of me perhaps I could take a trip to see the elusive white gold 

[Mucka]

The firm up an on a breakdown of the cold from the 10th continues this morning with UKMO and GFS.

Could feel quite Spring like in the SW for a short time if correct,  although a return to cooler/colder weather seems pretty likely.

There are still one or two stragglers in the ensembles that keep the breakdown at bay for longer and at least give a snowier end. Certainly not the V cold and potentially snowy period we were once hoping for though as the blocking high is just a little too far W for a direct feed from the Arctic.

That said there could be widespread snow for some places in the S on the 9th and further N on the 10th as the Atlantic pushes in rather than the cold just be rapidly swept away across the nation from the SW in one push.

ECM is the pick of the output to at least get these consolation prizes.

It is still 4/5 days away so it could change but the fact the ensembles and Ops have all pretty much trended this way as we have gotten closer means it is pretty likely. 

The second half of March still looks like to bring in cold shots from the N but nothing special at this stage.

But let's see what we can eek out of  the upcoming spell before looking for Daffodils 

 

 

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The firm up an on a breakdown of the cold from the 10th continues this morning with UKMO and GFS.

Could feel quite Spring like in the SW for a short time if correct,  although a return to cooler/colder weather seems pretty likely.

ECM is the pick of the output to at least get these consolation prizes.

 

 

 

ECM 0z has 12 C in the SW as early as Thursday afternoon

Look at the temperature gradient on ECM

 

[mulzy]

It looks like this week is likely to be very disappointing for many.  Hey-ho, it is what it is.  Chances are possible later in the month but at least for those in the south, we need perfect synoptics to deliver.

A pretty ordinary day 7 chart.

[Jackski4]

ECM trending very mild this morning, not what we wanted to see if you’re searching for white gold. White gold potential has shifted north for the south it’s looking more like a chilly rain event, aside from @Kentspur little blue pixel. 
 

I’m hoping GEM is onto something as this is the model of the morning if you want white gold and it’s a cold run throughout, perhaps it’s noticed something the others are missing?