Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[adrianh]

Looks like there is the potential for continuing snow into next week. Often on a knife edge of course but repeated plunges of cold air definitely seem feasible.

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

A really big shift by arome and arpege this morning, increased snow for many areas we await the ukv and ecm.

Such changes at short notice must be a major headaches on where to throw the amber warnings.

As it stands we could get a double whammy mate🌨🌨!!!

[Lampostwatcher]

Definitely big upgrades this morning 

1-10cms possible in the south as far as luton 

On weds night 🌨

[MattStoke]

The Aperge brings Wednesday’s snow right up across the Midlands and Wales.

It then goes a bit mad with snow up here on Thursday and Friday.

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by MattStoke

[weirpig]

Just to show still how much variation there is in modelling   the WRF NNM   Brings the low in the early hours  further North with much heav PPN.

[DAVE_ALLEN]

40 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

For what it's worth (which is nothing), the GFS has 10cm+ quite widely in the south by T36.

This matches the latest Met O updates warnings.  And the northern extent matches the GFS precip. Are we edging towards firming up the snow distribution I wonder

[Stuie]

There is some instability in the South tomorrow, this may be why snow further South is in the mix without 528DAM, wet bulb level and not very optimal - 850`s.

 

[Battleground Snow]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

As it stands we could get a double whammy mate🌨🌨!!!

Was thinking that haha  I didn't think weds system had a chance of getting that far north,

Thursday is potentially the more disruptive (for midlands) ,but I have no confidence on where this will hit hardest.

As others have said the further north Wednesdays system goes the further south Thursdays will go.

Think of the see saw analogy. If the weds one goes up it drags Thursdays down.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Definitely big upgrades this morning 

1-10cms possible in the south as far as luton 

On weds night 🌨

Is that as far south as Luton or as far north..

[Tim Bland]

34 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Arpege raises an eyebrow, I'll await the 06z ecm, but for Thursday I think even as far south as Oxford is in the game still.

Worth noting with some of these models.. if you google translate the title (under time and date stamp) it says total falling snow from 0hrs.   So it’s not snow depths at that point,  it’s total falling snow from the start which might not settle 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Worth noting with some of these models.. if you google translate the title (under time and date stamp) it says total falling snow from 0hrs.   So it’s not snow depths at that point,  it’s total falling snow from the start which might not settle 

Yes thanks Tim, i should have perhaps pointed that out for people who may not be aware, however weds system should be less marginal away from the extreme south.

[Tim Bland]

UKV has Birmingham to peterborough as the northern extent tomorrow night ..

[TEITS]

29 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not a single 06 hrs op run backs the T72 hours fax chart location of the low.

 

I am somewhat puzzled by it. Having said this I was puzzled why the Met O continued with the forecast for today of snow showers for the E when it looked likely these would remain mainly offshore for a few days now.

As for the drama coming  up this week then at the moment the chart below is what I would consider the most likely. However a shift S remains possible.

[The Northern Ramper]

25 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Hope this comes off 24 hours of snow

There would be jubilant scenes in the snow starved north west forum.

[geordiekev]

Look like snow risk extended into late weekend in some areas, though not sure I trust any of the models, even the short term ones.

Very  noticeable how quick the stronger Sun is melting frost & what thin accumulations there has been. Before the spell there looked to be a fair bit of cloud cover, which has changed to much more snow showers in the North so not ideal so defo need more organised sysyems like those showing in the South or later in week.

Once again weekend of St Paddys & my birthday peaking interest

[EML Network]

Its becoming obvious now for those South of London, get out and enjoy whatever snow falls tomorrow before the night because its looking likely to transition to rain as the system heads North.

Amazing just how far North the modelling has moved the PPN compared to what was being modelled just 24 hours ago.

London itself could be in a prime location.

before the real fun heads to the North

Edited March 7, 2023 by EML Network

[geordiekev]

The system that enters the frame this Thursday & takes over 10 days to reach us via an Icelandic cold top up still peaking interest for St Paddy's weekend. Quite amazing how slow the whole system is at present

[Rob 79812010]

12 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Its becoming obvious now for those South of London, get out and enjoy whatever snow falls tomorrow before the night because its looking likely to transition to rain as the system heads North.

Amazing just how far North the modelling has moved the PPN compared to what was being modelled just 24 hours ago.

London itself could be in a prime location

The BBC  shorter term forecast is talking heavy and disruptive snow Thurs and Friday which ties in with some of the models. Holding my breath for where I am though. This type of event isn't a friend of Manchesters normally!!!

[Stephen W]

4 hours ago, Catacol said:

After my gloomy posts of yesterday some better news for the short term. ECM is an upgrade for the second half of the week - this chart is at least a snowmaker for a day.

Mmm..I’m still feeling gloomy but very much from an imby perspective. I thought yesterday I might see a snowflake if lucky but even that is now looking very unlikely. Convective snow showers from the North Sea looking to stay offshore even in the north east where the met office have warnings out. We look to miss out on upcoming events further south and north too! Once upon a time a cold artic plunge from the north/north east would have put my location in a favoured spot but not to be this year..looking very good for many parts though as you highlight and hopefully your locale too being that bit more west and north.

[sheikhy]

Metoffice updated thursday friday warning at 11am!no change in terms of a southward or northward extension!!love the silence in here before the ecm comes out!!pin drop!!

[Updated_Weather]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Metoffice updated thursday friday warning at 11am!no change in terms of a southward or northward extension!!love the silence in here before the ecm comes out!!pin drop!!

What time does the ECM6z come out Sheikhy?

[Paul_1978]

56 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

UKV has Birmingham to peterborough as the northern extent tomorrow night ..

Jeez that doesn't bode well for my train journey from London back up to Yorkshire at 5.30pm tomorrow. 

As regards the GFS 6z, it looks like it's going to remain cold to Saturday, perhaps a slight warm up on Sunday but with the cold digging back in by Monday as the next low passes through..

[Battleground Snow]

8 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

What time does the ECM6z come out Sheikhy?

Approximately 1245

[Astral Goat Juice]

Looking at the charts for this week, and once we have got this rain transition event out of the way, it looks impressive for the Midlands North. I would say South of the Midlands will be more than likely a rain event, but its a close one to call. 

Looks very wet here:

 

Thursday into Friday according to the latest charts are showing quite a significant event for the North. Impressive times ahead. 

 

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

What time does the ECM6z come out Sheikhy?

Should start rolling in 15 20 mins!!!