Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[In Absence of True Seasons]

7 hours ago, h2005__uk__ said:

This has to be the worst Winter/Spring I can remember here for many years in terms of pleasant weather... very cold December (just as energy prices hit record highs), pretty cool January, a dull, wet and cool March, then a cool and fairly wet April.

The snow in December was nice to an extent but it outstayed its welcome for me.

This is why I am a fan of the climate in much of the US / North America. Alot of snow (proper winter) but then you can be quite assured of a decent summer on the horizon to look forwards to. The issue with the UK is being right in the path of the gulf-stream makes our weather patterns a coin-flip. So, there's no solace/peace in the knowledge that the cold winter like we had this year will be followed by a sunny, warm and pleasant summer. 

It's a shame, because when we have a great spring and summer (like last year, or 2018), there's basically nowhere else I'd rather be. Cornwall, The Lakes, countryside beer garden overlooking fields of verdant green... In good weather runs like that, I'm reassured that our climate is actually 'not that bad!', my penchant for staycationing and hiking in Britain is restored, and I think "perhaps global warming really is manifesting noticeable change in the UK?" Then the next year, we'll have 3 months of cloudfest and drizzle, all of that goes out the window, and I'm sat having an internal half-joking - but also semi-serious - debate of whether or not I'm going to have to move to somewhere with a more reliable climate in the future.

My main gripe about it is how difficult it makes planning for things, especially anything outdoors. 

On a more positive note, today was actually pretty decent in London. 15/16c and a mix of sun and some cloud. A standard, acceptable April day which I'll happily take considering the state of the Spring thus far. 18c or so would be great can I'll take today's weather for the remainder of the month with zero complaints at all lol. 

[Metwatch]

5 minutes ago, al78 said:

Here are the Europe sea level pressure anomalies for March and 1st to 15th April using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.

I have also added the HadUKP E+W cumulative rainfall anomaly from the Met Office website which shows April has so far seen well above average rainfall, although that anomaly should decrease with the forecast settled week ahead.

Does anyone know for how much longer we need anomalously wet weather countrywide before we can stop worring about potential summer water shortages?

We should be alright until summer even if it's quite dry I think.

Reservoirs in the south west and east still a bit on the low side otherwise good recovery in water levels.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Amusingly even as the spell degraded the models insisted here as late as yesterday that it would be sunny Sun-Weds. Yesterday was a bit bright though generally cloudy and today it's just trying to give me an hour or two now. 

[Dark Horse]

23 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

We should be alright until summer even if it's quite dry I think.

Reservoirs in the south west and east still a bit on the low side otherwise good recovery in water levels.

 

 

Let's hope so. Our local reservoirs on the Pennines are 89% full at the moment - at a similar level to this time last year, only 2% higher than back then but by last September they ended up only about a quarter full. Thankfully we had enough rain over the Autumn/Winter period to fill them back up.

Edited April 17, 2023 by Dark Horse

[In Absence of True Seasons]

6 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Of course, we have the obligatory "why isn't it 25c every day yet, I thought April was a warm month" posts as always. Actually, the temperature has been very average for the most part with only a few slightly-below average days. I implore you to look up what your average April temperature actually is

Nobody is expecting 25c in April... I've even caveated my posts with that. 16c and sunny would be nice, not 9c and cold rain. 

There's no denying that this month has felt very wintry this far, particularly in comparison to many Aprils in recent years.

The "average temperatures" for the UK aren't the best indicators of the weather we actually get though imo, as unintuitive as that sounds. 

I mean, the "average" temperatures they show for the likes of June and July don't even make 20c lol but realistically, most of the country sees numerous days at 20 and above in both these months, for the majority of years, and oftentimes in the 30s (particularly in the South). 

The 'average' temperature for London in July is apparently 19c but honestly in most years of my recent memory, we have more days in July *above* 19c than below it (even if it's not actually sunny), and sometimes considerably above it (multiple days of 25c+, and then those blasts of 30c+ that happen most years in London at some point during July).

[Steve C]

Looking at Wikipedia, the mean July temperature for London is 19C - 23.9C average max, 14.2C average min.

Edited April 17, 2023 by Steve C

[Arctic Hare]

Met Office West Midlands text forecast this evening starts "Mainly dry with sunny then clear spells through the evening". In reality, unless there was some in the very early morning there hasn't been one minute of sunshine in Bewdley today.

[Azazel]

Sun is out! I’m sat outside in only a t shirt, jumper and a hoodie! 

Back to the big coat and bobble hat tomorrow for the foreseeable future:(

[sunny_vale]

53 minutes ago, al78 said:

2013:

https://www.channel4.com/news/cold-weather-leaves-uk-wildlife-in-chaos

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-the-coldest-spring-for-50-years-with-average-temperature-of-just-6c-8637907.html

1996. I remember it being bad enough to feature on the news:

"Temperatures in the south of England would normally reach 18C at this time of year. This year, temperatures are struggling to get above 10C". That was in early May.

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/95240-spring-1996/

 

Well 2013 yes I do remember that taking it's time, although even that April had a nice few days of temps above 20C and a few others over 18 too, so in that sense this year is taking longer for me.

1996 I don't remember personally but I have seen that was pretty slow too. 

Both produced good summers so fingers crossed haha

[Sun Chaser]

1 hour ago, al78 said:

Here are the Europe sea level pressure anomalies for March and 1st to 15th April using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.

I have also added the HadUKP E+W cumulative rainfall anomaly from the Met Office website which shows April has so far seen well above average rainfall, although that anomaly should decrease with the forecast settled week ahead.

Does anyone know for how much longer we need anomalously wet weather countrywide before we can stop worring about potential summer water shortages?

Any link where I can access the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

36 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Sun is out! I’m sat outside in only a t shirt, jumper and a hoodie! 

Back to the big coat and bobble hat tomorrow for the foreseeable future:(

It was out here for half hour 

[kold weather]

4 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

This is true; I'm not about to claim this April has been warm. It's mostly been very consistently average (possibly one of the most consistently average Aprils in recent memory) in temperature due to how overcast its been, which is inevitably going to mute the extremes, as is often the case in autumn when things tend to be a lot more overcast like they are now.

The rain is the unusual part about this April; as with March, the temperature is a bit of a red herring when it comes to this year being unusual so far. The swings between wet and dry have been huge. January started off extremely wet, then the last week and February were bone dry, and then March and April have been really wet and overcast. This year is one of extremes.

As for the fabled 20c, it would seem that only just over half of Aprils reach 20c in London, so I don't see anything that unusual in not reaching this yet. It is still totally reasonable for us not to reach the big 2-0 until May. Patience is key here.

Its been very common in the last 15 years though to reach 20c in London by this point. I do think this is something which is starting to stand out, though i agree the wetness in the 1st half of Spring has been more notable. 

It may have been less common in the 60-80s, but we've seem a shift up in our climatic averages since then...

[Nick L]

Can't deny that today was a lovely day. Annoying that I had to go for a nap half way through the afternoon ahead of my night shift, but we still had a good couple of hours at the allotment. Shame it's not going to last.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

16 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its been very common in the last 15 years though to reach 20c in London by this point. I do think this is something which is starting to stand out

Precisely. The weather averages that Google image will bring up for much of England are a bit outdated imo. Well, at the very least just not fully reflective of the current trends we are seeing across the last 10-15 years. Which is, for April to see 20c in much of England, not just London, as well as several days of 17, 18 and 19c. 

Its a bit like if we  saw an entire June, July and August without any days reaching 30c. Sure, 30c is considerably higher than our statistical averages for summer and not necessarily "expected" as such, however, seeing that most British summers these days *do* indeed result in 30c at some point (oftentimes for multiple days), there is a sort of expectation in one's mind for it to happen, and if we use the last 10 years as a benchmark, it'd be an outlier to not hit 30c. 

Edited April 17, 2023 by In Absence of True Seasons

[tadpole]

1 hour ago, Azazel said:

Sun is out! I’m sat outside in only a t shirt, jumper and a hoodie! 

Back to the big coat and bobble hat tomorrow for the foreseeable future:(

I hope you were wearing something below your waist too!

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, Azazel said:

Sun is out! I’m sat outside in only a t shirt, jumper and a hoodie! 

Back to the big coat and bobble hat tomorrow for the foreseeable future:(

Bloody hell, I'd have been boiling in that. Comfortable t-shirt weather for me today.

[Bristawl Si]

Been awful here.

Grey leaden skies, Dull, bouts of light rain; temp did reach 14c late afters, but it didnt feel like it.

[markyo]

To be honest i missed the freshness this morning that i've be spoilt with, much warmer. Would take a bit to get used to but thankfully the outlook is a return to more comfortable conditions, not a bad Spring at all, long may it continue!...i know many will disagree though!

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Bloody hell, I'd have been boiling in that. Comfortable t-shirt weather for me today.

It was back to feeling cold in a long sleeved top, jumper long winter coat.

[Eugene]

Big downgrade for the warmies this week from what the models were showing a week ago, down from 20C to low teens and feeling chilly in easterly wind this week.

[SunSean]

Crazy to think that around just 5 days or so ago, the models were looking great for this week, forecasts had loads of sunny days showing and it felt like Spring was finally on the way! But....

As is the pattern this year, any beautiful looking run of sunny Spring weather will be swiftly smashed to bits like a bull in a china shop.

However...

If the models are showing absolute rubbish and the forecasts are promising another long stint of rain and grey skies, you honestly have more chance of jumping off the Empire state building and landing on the concrete below perfectly, without even a sprain, than those forecasts and models to even hint at upgrading to sunshine.

Its the way it goes! Rubbish on the models 10 days out? Absolute certainty of coming off!! Glorious sunshine, settled weather and high pressure 6 days out? No chance mate, would you care for some low pressure instead?!

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Nobody is expecting 25c in April... I've even caveated my posts with that. 16c and sunny would be nice, not 9c and cold rain. 

There's no denying that this month has felt very wintry this far, particularly in comparison to many Aprils in recent years.

The "average temperatures" for the UK aren't the best indicators of the weather we actually get though imo, as unintuitive as that sounds. 

I mean, the "average" temperatures they show for the likes of June and July don't even make 20c lol but realistically, most of the country sees numerous days at 20 and above in both these months, for the majority of years, and oftentimes in the 30s (particularly in the South). 

The 'average' temperature for London in July is apparently 19c but honestly in most years of my recent memory, we have more days in July *above* 19c than below it (even if it's not actually sunny), and sometimes considerably above it (multiple days of 25c+, and then those blasts of 30c+ that happen most years in London at some point during July).

The 25c thing was a comedic exaggeration as explained before. I'm not addressing that again - Please don't quote that and say "well no one has claimed that" anymore. I know no one claimed that; it's a deliberate exaggeration to highlight the unrealistically high expectations of many people. I'll keep in mind that no one here understands sarcasm in the future.

I'm not sure where you're getting your information? I was using the average high as a benchmark, not the mean. All three summer months have an average high of at least 21c - July and August have an average high above 23c, so yes, 19c would be a mild day. Elsewhere in the south, the average high still trends above 20c in July and August, and only slightly below in June.

This imo is flawed logic; the average temperature can't simply be dismissed because we have decided it feels too cold to be April. The mean average is there to mathematically tell us what sort of temperature range is normal for a given time, within a very good margin of accuracy, and this tells us that a high of 14c is very average in April, and even above average in some areas. Unfortunately, the human experience is subjective, and it is going to be next to impossible to align our expectations exactly with the mathematical averages.

As for the average maxima of each month, I don't have access to that info right now, but if I had to throw out an educated guess, I would say it stands at about 18-19c in London, and lower the progressively further north/coastward you get. For comparison, the average maximum in August is about dead on 30c, maybe 31c (a year in which August doesn't reach 30c at least once would have a lower maximum than the average August), so this leaves plenty of room for higher temperatures than that.

 

21 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Precisely. The weather averages that Google image will bring up for much of England are a bit outdated imo. Well, at the very least just not fully reflective of the current trends we are seeing across the last 10-15 years. Which is, for April to see 20c in much of England, not just London, as well as several days of 17, 18 and 19c. 

Its a bit like if we  saw an entire June, July and August without any days reaching 30c. Sure, 30c is considerably higher than our statistical averages for summer and not necessarily "expected" as such, however, seeing that most British summers these days *do* indeed result in 30c at some point (oftentimes for multiple days), there is a sort of expectation in one's mind for it to happen, and if we use the last 10 years as a benchmark, it'd be an outlier to not hit 30c. 

I'm not getting my sources from Google images.

I totally agree; spring is beginning to get considerably warmer on average and these sorts of temperatures are going to become a lot more normalised over time. The danger with this is becoming acclimatised to the shorter, milder winters and longer, hotter summers, and then when we do finally have a spring or summer that is wet and milder, perceiving it as too cold and not recognising that this used to be normal weather, and that the climate has changed. This would appear to be already happening, e.g. the comments regarding a 1961-1990 average April being unreasonably cold and the general sentiment of "surely it didn't used to be that cold". Gradual acclimatisation is a really powerful thing.

From my observations of recent years, imo we have switched from a northern European climate with long winters and short, fairly mild summers to a more western European climate, with shorter, milder and wetter winters and longer, hotter summers with frequent long periods of really dry weather, and powerful but fairly short lived outbursts of wet weather. It would appear that summer is starting to begin a lot sooner now, and in some cases is also lasting a lot longer well into September.

Of course, throughout this century as climate change gets worse, the average maximum of every month is going to increase, the biggest increases of course in summer. I would not be surprised if the average maxima of each summer month were the wrong side of 35c in London by 2070. By then the average April probably will include long spells of 20+c weather in southern England, and a spring like this would be a true outlier.

[Guest]

Have wound up in hospital on the best day of the week, outlook is pretty grim, in fact beyond grim for the weekend and it’s now odds on I’ll miss on my trip to Spain in mid May for some golf and warmth due to this injury. A really bad couple of days both personally and meteorologically! 

[baddie]

To be honest, this April is probably going to turn out like april 2016 did (slightly wetter and sunnier than average), because it only reached 15c. But without the that nasty cold spell at the end of the month, just like how 2016 had, snow on the 26th

Edited April 17, 2023 by baddie

[Sunny76]

6 hours ago, Azazel said:

Fair enough - don’t give up your day job