Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[kold weather]

15 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

There’s no defending it. This April has been hideous. 

I'm not trying to claim its been good, just that it's not quite the disaster some claim it to be. March, that was by any standards pretty disastrous. But April is probably going to end close to average temps, sunshine levels a bit below par but not drastic and rainfall a bit above but again not dreadful.

The suppressed maxes have been dissapointing for sure though down here.

Again though I'd say if this came after a good March and not one of the worst on record we'd not be seeing half the complaints.

With all that being said, this is going to be a wet spring and that is an undeniable bust on the Met office behalf given their models looked drier than normal and thats what they went with (hence the drought concerns).

Ps, if you hideous look at April 2012. That was a terrible month. This one is not even close to that level of bad.

Edited April 27, 2023 by kold weather

[danm]

4 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

How do they seem positive? The setup seems similar to 2021 which was a summer without much reliable or consistent sunny / warm weather outside of a couple of heat blasts.

Long range forecasts have been pointing to another hot summer. The current synoptic set up has little to do with what will happen in 1, 2 or 3 months time. 

[MP-R]

Somebody mentioned how we’d be complaining if we had another April 2004, but that month was actually better here. By now we had had a few days in the low twenties with plentiful sunshine. There had also been plenty of days in the upper teens earlier on.

[al78]

4 hours ago, Scorcher said:

It's becoming more and more difficult statistically to justify the claim that this is a poor April (especially in my local area).

Maybe it has been better here than other areas but we've had a good few people in the NW relentlessly moaning as well.

Here we are only 10 hours behind the monthly average for sunshine now with 4 days of the month still to go- there is a decent chance the month will end up above average for sunshine.

Temperature-wise it's been average to slightly above as well so struggling to see why people are so annoyed about this month. Not the best but not the worst by any means.

I can only imagine what this thread would be like with a repeat of April 2012, 2000 or 2004.

 

There is a south to north gradient in the rainfall anomaly across the UK. Northern England has seen near average rainfall but south-east England is on 126% anomaly with three and a half days of the month left. Northern Scotland has seen below average rainfall this month. This is consistent with a jet stream that has been anomalously far south for the time of year, stuck over the southern counties whilst Scotland reaps the benefit of more frequent anticyclonic conditions. It has been a poor April in my part of SE England (Sussex), not the worst but something doesn't have to be the worst ever to be poor. I do wish people would stop with this fallacy of relative privation.

You only have to spend time with outdoor activities to see for yourself conditions are not good. I am well behind with allotment cultivation because the soil has been horribly claggy and very difficult to cultivate. I led a local walk last Sunday morning which originally had 13 people signed up, in the end four turned up because of yet another several hours period of rain, and the paths were very muddy and tricky to negotiate in places, and this follows from having to cancel a walk at the end of last month due to very poor weather and ground conditions. I have never had two walks disrupted like this in a whole year, never mind in the same season. It is unusual for soils to still be saturated at this time of year in the south.

[Downburst]

1 hour ago, danm said:

Long range forecasts have been pointing to another hot summer. The current synoptic set up has little to do with what will happen in 1, 2 or 3 months time. 

Not sure what long range are pointing to another hot summer. We will know more next week, but the most recent SEAS5 ECMWF, it's pointing to 0.5 to 1C above average. That's the right direction, but I am not at this stage thinking "Hot" and is showing a mean of average rainfall for the season. hopefully some hot episodes and hopefully the mean won't drag down with cooler interludes. Won't know until end of August no matter what the models say anyway.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

I'm not trying to claim its been good, just that it's not quite the disaster some claim it to be.

IMO, April doesn't need to be a full on disaster to be considered generally dull, depressing and moan-worthy. April is a month where it's so great when there's warmth and sun because its the first real month where you'll be experiencing that since the prior September. It's first proper 'green' month of the year, and the first month where the days get noticeably longer and more usable as a result. It's like a nice breakfast after skipping dinner the night before.

So, when this doesn't materialise and the month ends up just feeling like an extension of Winter with longer daylight hours, it's really tiresome. I wouldn't care if we had this weather in October, November, or March. But by April - especially mid to late April, I'm fully done with 9-12c and thick cloud day-in-day-out. 

What would define a 'disaster' April anyhow? A heavy snowstorm? A few days of freezing wind and hail? Or just temps consistently below the statistical average?

[Don]

1 hour ago, danm said:

Long range forecasts have been pointing to another hot summer. The current synoptic set up has little to do with what will happen in 1, 2 or 3 months time. 

Yes and with the early heat building over North Africa and Iberia, you could say the building blocks are already coming into place for a hot summer?!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah, since 2019 it does appear that the summers have become cloudier. Apart from 2022, as that was sunny for longer periods during warm or hot sunny periods.

2019/20 and 21 were cloud fest summers. If it’s cloudy and warm, for me that’s not a good summer. 
 

Would take cool and sunny over cloudy and warm, if I can’t get hot and sunny. 

I felt that the Summer of 2020 was pretty decent overall, especially off the back of the fantastic Spring that year. But August 2020 was the perfect example of this. We had that intense heatwave that was a week or so long, but it was cloudy for about 90% of it. When I went outside it felt like I was stepping off the plane at Bangkok in the monsoon season.

Much preferred August last year - temps generally mid 20s or thereabouts, clear skies, lots of sunshine. An usual August for England I'll admit, but ideal from my perspective.

But, like you, I would happily sacrifice a few degrees C if meant less overcast! 21 or 22c and sunny > 27/28c and cloudy unquestionably. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Just me?? This feels like the looooongest "Spring" in history. Even longer than January!!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 hours ago, kold weather said:

I dont think it's been a terrible April statistically speaking, pretty close to average, perhaps a little worse than normal the further south you go.

I just think the combo of monotonous temperatures with little variation, relatively low max monthly temp particularly again further south and a really dreadful March is probably making it look worse than it is, particularly when things still are struggling to improve and we are knocking on May's door.

I suppose we've also had quite a downturn in April precipitation in the last 5-10 years which also probably makes a modestly wet month seem far worse than it is on the precipitation front.

Realistically I think your right

[Andy Bown]

Absolutely tonking down at the moment. A few hours of very heavy rain for much of the South while further North has comparatively little!

9.1c in mid afternoon only 4 days from May!

[Maz]

1 hour ago, al78 said:

There is a south to north gradient in the rainfall anomaly across the UK. Northern England has seen near average rainfall but south-east England is on 126% anomaly with three and a half days of the month left. Northern Scotland has seen below average rainfall this month. This is consistent with a jet stream that has been anomalously far south for the time of year, stuck over the southern counties whilst Scotland reaps the benefit of more frequent anticyclonic conditions.

Agreed regarding % anomoly.  How do absolute values compare though? 

The average will be much lower in SE England than in  N England and especially N Scotland.  Perhaps in absolute terms rainfall has been fairly similar NW -> SE, which is unusual in itself?    For those in the SE the same level of rainfall will feel like a much wetter spell than those in N England/ N Scotland whose normal level of rainfall is higher.  

[stainesbloke]

59 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes and with the early heat building over North Africa and Iberia, you could say the building blocks are already coming into place for a hot summer?!

Or it could be entirely irrelevant. Many a summer has gone by where these places were roasting and the UK was in a very different airmass. And there won’t be extreme heat with the soil as wet as it is currently, there’d need to be a long arid spell of weather

[kold weather]

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

IMO, April doesn't need to be a full on disaster to be considered generally dull, depressing and moan-worthy. April is a month where it's so great when there's warmth and sun because its the first real month where you'll be experiencing that since the prior September. It's first proper 'green' month of the year, and the first month where the days get noticeably longer and more usable as a result. It's like a nice breakfast after skipping dinner the night before.

So, when this doesn't materialise and the month ends up just feeling like an extension of Winter with longer daylight hours, it's really tiresome. I wouldn't care if we had this weather in October, November, or March. But by April - especially mid to late April, I'm fully done with 9-12c and thick cloud day-in-day-out. 

What would define a 'disaster' April anyhow? A heavy snowstorm? A few days of freezing wind and hail? Or just temps consistently below the statistical average?

I think an April 2012 could be easily defined as a disaster, hugely wetter than normal, 1c colder than the running mean, one of the duller Aprils in living memory as well, zero 20c recorded as well.

That is a disaster of an April. This one is somewhat poor but is better on just about every metric than 12, considerably so on some metrics like rainfall totals.

[B87]

The month so far here is 14.2c/5.8c, 57.2mm rain and 75% of average sun (~133 hours). Not terrible but noticeably worse than expected.

[Don]

26 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Or it could be entirely irrelevant. Many a summer has gone by where these places were roasting and the UK was in a very different airmass. And there won’t be extreme heat with the soil as wet as it is currently, there’d need to be a long arid spell of weather

Obviously no guarantee this coming summer will be a hot one for the UK, but with the heat building early in the aforementioned places (even earlier than last year!) we have a ticket if nothing else.  Also, even if the summer is mediocre overall, given the general trends since 2015, we could potentially have a few heat spikes at least.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Don

[al78]

23 minutes ago, Maz said:

Agreed regarding % anomoly.  How do absolute values compare though? 

The average will be much lower in SE England than in  N England and especially N Scotland.  Perhaps in absolute terms rainfall has been fairly similar NW -> SE, which is unusual in itself?    For those in the SE the same level of rainfall will feel like a much wetter spell than those in N England/ N Scotland whose normal level of rainfall is higher.  

From the HadUKP charts website:

N Scotland: 2023 value to 25th April: 49.4mm (52% of 1991-2020 April climatology).

NW England: 2023 value to 25th April: 48.2mm (81% of 1991-2020 April climatology).

SE England: 2023 value to 25th April: 65.8mm (126% of 1991-2020 April climatology)

Doesn't matter whether you look at absolute or relative to climatology comparisons, April has been a significantly wetter month in SE England than most other regions in the UK. Only SW England and S Scotland have very similar rainfall accumulations to date.

[Maz]

1 minute ago, al78 said:

From the HadUKP charts website:

N Scotland: 2023 value to 25th April: 49.4mm (52% of 1991-2020 April climatology).

NW England: 2023 value to 25th April: 48.2mm (81% of 1991-2020 April climatology).

SE England: 2023 value to 25th April: 65.8mm (126% of 1991-2020 April climatology)

Doesn't matter whether you look at absolute or relative to climatology comparisons, April has been a significantly wetter month in SE England than most other regions in the UK. Only SW England and S Scotland have very similar rainfall accumulations to date.

Thanks Al. 

That is definitely a turning upside down of the usual situation, which does show those in the SE in both relative and absolute terms have experienced a worse April than elsewhere.  It's not been great in NW England, but hasn't been that bad either (a bit cool with no real warm days, but quite dry).

[al78]

3 minutes ago, Maz said:

Thanks Al. 

That is definitely a turning upside down of the usual situation, which does show those in the SE in both relative and absolute terms have experienced a worse April than elsewhere.  It's not been great in NW England, but hasn't been that bad either (a bit cool with no real warm days, but quite dry).

I think that is what is causing the debate/argument on here about the quality of April weatherwise. I suspect those claiming it has been normal or at least not bad are living in the northern half of the UK, those who are complaining bitterly are living in the south of England.

As I speak the rain is coming down again here in Farringdon.

Edited April 27, 2023 by al78

[stainesbloke]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Obviously no guarantee this coming summer will be a hot one for the UK, but with the heat building early in the aforementioned places (even earlier than last year!) we have a ticket if nothing else.  Also, even if the summer is mediocre overall, given the general trends since 2015, we could potentially have a few heat spikes at least.

This is still the UK though, it’s not Seville. Hot weather is still not the form horse and most of summer is unlikely to be anything noteworthy. Of course we have a ‘ticket’ but there are a few days of hot weather in nearly every summer, it’s entirely normal, especially away from the far NW. Why are you so stressed about it, if I may ask? 

[Maz]

Just now, al78 said:

I think that is what is causing the debate/argument on here about the quality of April weatherwise. I suspect those claiming it has been normal or at least not bad are living in the northern half of the UK, those who are complaining bitterly are living in the south of England.

Yep, agreed.

Thanks for the link too.  Interesting looking at the monthly averages.  NW England is much wetter than SE England in January and September (30mm difference) but much closer in April (5mm difference). 

That accords to my experience that there are more instances of HP to N or NE of UK in April, hence more Easterly and Northerly winds, and in NW England that tends to mean dryer than average.  January and September far more W'ly/SW'ly and wetter in NW England, but in SE the "rain-shadow" effect and being nearer continental high, means it's dryer.

This April has been a more extreme version of that pattern.  It's just unfortunate that this year, even in NW England, it's not given any warmth, although often it does in April and clearly has in NW Scotland this year.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

2 minutes ago, al78 said:

I think that is what is causing the debate/argument on here about the quality of April weatherwise. I suspect those claiming it has been normal or at least not bad are living in the northern half of the UK, those who are complaining bitterly are living in the south of England.

As I speak the rain is coming down again here in Farringdon.

This is pretty much it, i think, compounded by the differing degrees to which people are bothered about cloud lol. 

Pretty solid showers now in London, 11.5c. It goes without saying that that's dross, however what's more noteworthy is that this rain wasn't even forecasted until...well, it basically arrived. 

As of this morning my phone's weather forecast for today had cloudy morning and then sun coming out by mid to late afternoon. I checked Met Office yesterday evening, and it had "temps warming up for South England" for today, and highs of 15c for London. Looking at my phone now, it's changed to rain the whole entire evening AND tomorrow morning. 

Narrator's voice: "Unsurprisingly, it did not warm up, instead, it ended up raining and remaining at 11/12c".

This country's weather is like a comedy show at times (that you're forced to watch for weeks on end).

[TwisterGirl81]

On 25/04/2023 at 22:05, Azazel said:

I’m just so bloody cold all the time unless I’m stood in a sheltered spot of the garden in direct sunlight.

I was hoping by the time the baby arrived we wouldn’t still be having to heat the house to stop the little sod from freezing!

 

We’ve had almost an inch of rain here today, I’m not sure as much rain was forecast but I really hope it starts warming up and drying up from here on out.

The reservoirs must be near full by now surely?

[Metwatch]

Somehow managed to reach average April sunshine this month up to yesterday with current value at 146.6 hours (average 1991-2020 is 147.1) according to the Bablake weather station.

Surprising but also glad, given most have had less in England.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Metwatch

[Don]

41 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Why are you so stressed about it, if I may ask? 

This really is getting ridiculous now!  What gives you the impression that 'I'm so stressed?!!'  I'm merely giving my view on how the summer 'may' turn out and am not stressed about the weather or what might lie ahead.  The only things that are really stressing me out on here recently are certain people taking my posts out of context!!  If this continues I will seriously stop posting here altogether, which would be a shame after nearly 17 years!

Edited April 27, 2023 by Don