Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

[Stuie]

Chasing a flake or 2 tomorrow morning in EA. All very borderline, potentially back edge snow due to the wetbulb (2 hours after expected front) and cold air arrival.

Any other showers after this will be wintry up to early hours Weds.

Edited March 13, 2023 by Stuie

[Unpredictable Seasons]

 

 

On 10/03/2023 at 11:11, Decemberof2010 said:

An expensive snowfall for someone

Ouch. Poor Lambo 

 

 

[Chesil View]

Realistically model output is suggesting that last week was winters last hurrah away from places that are always vulnerable to snow in early spring. Namely northern High ground or windward coasts.

The wedgey bits of high pressure that do set up on some runs simply don't have the heft to cause the incoming lows to slide even with a relatively dormant atlantic. 

They just move across the UK at various angles  or become stagnant over us either way will only produce white stuff in the aforementioned 'areas vulnerable in early spring. 

For my locale at least. Bring on Spring.

(Now watch as a model run brings in minus 15 uppers and and a perfectly tracking channel low. )

[Unpredictable Seasons]

Very quite in here especially for those that are under a snow & ice yellow warning from now until 12 noon tomorrow...

Looking forward to more Sneachta...  

[KTtom]

3 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

 

(Now watch as a model run brings in minus 15 uppers and and a perfectly tracking channel low. )

Well  ECM does try ...

[Stuie]

Current flow, to show tomorrows wintry risk.

[Don]

10 minutes ago, Unpredictable Seasons said:

 

 

 

Not being funny but why would you take a car like that out in the snow??!!

9 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

Realistically model output is suggesting that last week was winters last hurrah away from places that are always vulnerable to snow in early spring. Namely northern High ground or windward coasts.

I thought last week was winter's first hurrah?! 

[Daniel*]

Quiet in here now understandably as wintry potential becomes more remote away from north and hills. ECM op shows the ongoing influence of SSW with southerly tracking lows and Arctic air close, it’s not very springlike anytime soon. The GEFS not really interested. Potentially a very cold March for Scotland and northern half of country. 2022 was a ridiculously warm year in U.K. maybe 2023 less extreme. 

Edited March 13, 2023 by Daniel*

[Stuie]

32 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Quiet in here now understandably as wintry potential becomes more remote away from north and hills. ECM op shows the ongoing influence of SSW with southerly tracking lows and Arctic air close, it’s not very springlike anytime soon. The GEFS not really interested. Potentially a very cold March for Scotland and northern half of country. 2022 was a ridiculously warm year in U.K. maybe 2023 less extreme. 

Yep and getting to the point of no return. Noticed yet again the ECM has churned out a bizarre outlier, only 5/6 days ahead also. If this was a 1 off you would raise an eyebrow but it isn`t. I presume the upgrade coming this year for the ECM is less about higher resolution but more to combat this short range issue.

EDIT:

Maybe to give it a little slack, the GEFS control does also dip.

EDIT2: Regardless, the 2M temps from todays GEFS is possibly more bullish than yesterday. 

Edited March 13, 2023 by Stuie

[Cambrian]

That bubble of heights in the western Mediterranean edging up into the Low Countries prevents passage east of the Atlantic low at day 3, serving us up a mild southwesterly flow towards the end of this week, as shown here on the 12z GFS ensemble mean. 

  

The pattern becomes decidedly slack at day 6. Heights beginning to build around Greenland, while the Siberian PV quietly gathers itself. 

  

Yep. But don’t let us be fooled, the Arctic pool of cold may well not be entirely done with us yet. By day 9, the Greenland heights strengthen further and extend further south, pushing the Atlantic low south and east. The low Atlantic heights begin to interface once more with the base of the reinforced Scandinavian trough as cold PV heights again extend southwest down the Norwegian Sea, the two troughs combining to give the UK and Ireland some more battleground welly. 

  

After the mild interlude, the mean T850s fall around 6 degrees in 6 days, to be comfortably below freezing by day 9. Days 3, 6 and 9.

  

It’s certainly not spring-like, though not suggesting anything extremely cold either. It’s a bit of a twilight zone for the winter. 

Having said that, the north of the UK and Ireland looks solidly cold again, the upper trough of the Atlantic low is clearly being squeezed very flat, and with the low heights extending southeast into France and Iberia, it looks like a better setup for little sliders breaking off and heading across the south than we had during the last week. 

There’s another difference too, with that nose of heights pushing southeast towards Iceland, and the Greenland heights clearly not scarpering this time, there’s more longevity to the setup, still broadly the same from day 8 to 16.

Twilight zone for winter maybe, but it really wouldn’t need much variation on the theme of these mean charts to bring a more widespread wintry episode or two before we’re done with the snow gloves and wellies, and go rummaging around for the sun hat. 

[nobble]

5 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

That bubble of heights in the western Mediterranean edging up into the Low Countries prevents passage east of the Atlantic low at day 3, serving us up a mild southwesterly flow towards the end of this week, as shown here on the 12z GFS ensemble mean. 

  

The pattern becomes decidedly slack at day 6. Heights beginning to build around Greenland, while the Siberian PV quietly gathers itself. 

  

Yep. But don’t let us be fooled, the Arctic pool of cold may well not be entirely done with us yet. By day 9, the Greenland heights strengthen further and extend further south, pushing the Atlantic low south and east. The low Atlantic heights begin to interface once more with the base of the reinforced Scandinavian trough as cold PV heights again extend southwest down the Norwegian Sea, the two troughs combining to give the UK and Ireland some more battleground welly. 

  

After the mild interlude, the mean T850s fall around 6 degrees in 6 days, to be comfortably below freezing by day 9. Days 3, 6 and 9.

  

It’s certainly not spring-like, though not suggesting anything extremely cold either. It’s a bit of a twilight zone for the winter. 

Having said that, the north of the UK and Ireland looks solidly cold again, the upper trough of the Atlantic low is clearly being squeezed very flat, and with the low heights extending southeast into France and Iberia, it looks like a better setup for little sliders breaking off and heading across the south than we had during the last week. 

There’s another difference too, with that nose of heights pushing southeast towards Iceland, and the Greenland heights clearly not scarpering this time, there’s more longevity to the setup, still broadly the same from day 8 to 16.

Twilight zone for winter maybe, but it really wouldn’t need much variation on the theme of these mean charts to bring a more widespread wintry episode or two before we’re done with the snow gloves and wellies, and go rummaging around for the sun hat. 

Oh oh , hope is sparking again

[snowsummer]

4 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'm going no where. I live here all year round. This is my home ...

I live here all year too. I obviously  need to get out a bit more and  introduce myself to all you lovely neighbours!

[Don]

6 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'm going no where. I live here all year round. This is my home ...

Not even Scotland?! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, snowsummer said:

I live here all year too. I obviously  need to get out a bit more and  introduce myself to all you lovely neighbours!

I'll have the tea and cake ready

25 minutes ago, Don said:

Not even Scotland?! 

Well darling you know the answer to that one ... 

[Don]

10 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Well darling you know the answer to that one ... 

Too cold aye?!  

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS 18z is a stonker - problem is its deep into the 200's when it reaches that aforementioned threshold of being a stonker.

[Allseasons-Si]

Well! well! well!

[Don]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well! well! well!

Yeah come on, winter has only just got going! 

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 18z is a stonker - problem is its deep into the 200's when it reaches that aforementioned threshold of being a stonker.

From the north again though. Think I'll just give up for my corner now lol.

[Don]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

From the north again though. Think I'll just give up for my corner now lol.

At that time frame, we all have a ticket in the raffle (or not!)

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Yeah come on, winter has only just got going! 

Lol

it wouldn't be out of place at this time of the year as the pv relents

come on!,...one last hurrah

[Don]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Lol

it wouldn't be out of place at this time of the year as the pv relents

come on!,...one last hurrah

Shame the PV does not relent two months earlier!

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Don said:

Shame the PV does not relent two months earlier!

Yes it is

maybe next season would give us an early ssw that produce better goods,...i think we will be in an east QBO too.

[Don]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes it is

maybe next season would give us an early ssw that produce better goods,...i think we will be in an east QBO too.

It should be unless we have another failure?!  However, main potential fly in the ointment for next winter is El Nino, which will need to be a weak affair or a Modiki central based event.

[Stuie]

14 hours ago, Stuie said:

Chasing a flake or 2 tomorrow morning in EA. All very borderline, potentially back edge snow due to the wetbulb (2 hours after expected front) and cold air arrival.

Any other showers after this will be wintry up to early hours Weds.

Back edge wet snow/sleet NW Essex. That`s going to be it.