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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This snow watch thread is an extension of the usual model discussion for those who want to chat about the snow chances over the coming days. For more general model discussion, please use the Models, models and more models thread, which also includes the model highlights.

As usual, for more general weather chat, moans and ramps, please head over to the Spring chat thread.

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted by Paul,

Right then - here we go with a limited 'Snow Watch' edition of the Model Discussion thread. If you want to track the models / radar etc with a view on what the snow chances are wherever you may be in the country, this is the thread.  We realise this isn't for everyone though, which is why we also have the models, models and more models thread available too - which will be reserved for more general model discussion outside of the realms of 'is it going to snow in x, y or z'. The models

Thread info - please read

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

Had some pretty decent hail, well biggest for a while.

Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Weather, Hail, PlantCould contain: Gauge, Tachometer

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geordiekev Experienced

geordiekev

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
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Posted

Litterally turned by back 30 mins ago. Am i dreaming

Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Yard, Ice, Weather, Scenery, Snow, Picket Fence

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

And here's the latest Met. Office's Deep Dive... Is it spring or is it winter?

 

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geordiekev Experienced

geordiekev

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
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Posted

Suspect a colder night ahead than originally forecast given the surprise snowfall & crystal clear skies. Will it make a difference to tomorrows snow chances for higher ground?

Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Sky, Sunset, Scenery, Sunrise, Horizon, Sunlight

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)

Another day, another ECM outlier from 0z, await 12z... (Whenever they turn up)

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.ccbbf24db3511f79c8dfeefe65cf1af7.gif

 

EDIT: and here it is, blimey model is a mess at the min.

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.00190f940320546229a9b40c0f9caa20.gif

Edited by Stuie
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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)

Think the towel may have to be thrown in. Chasing a late month whatever spell isn`t something I can get on.

NAO pretty much neutral until end of month scatter. GEFS 850`s although look like scatter past the 20th, it`s only a few members. 2M temps not showing a dip either.

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Line Chartgraphe_ens3.thumb.gif.81bd03146778bb9ba5365eaf190e84f0.gifgraphe_ens4.thumb.gif.f5a212311e93a1bcfd40e3386c9f0301.gif

 

EDIT: Or you could go with the CFS into April if that`s your FI.

 

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Edited by Stuie
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted (edited)

Well, we got a good dumping last week and fair play to the coldies who chased it down,maybe its an age thing for me but I don't have the stomach for march April cold anymore .

That's me signing out until summer ☀️ 

Clocks go forward next weekend so I'm firmly in the looking for warmth camp now , heres to a nice summer and a Canadian SSW round about October to set us up for a prolonged freeze as we head toward December , we'll, a guy has to dream 😀 

Take care all ,until the next time 😁

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Well, we got a good dumping last week and fair play to the coldies who chased it down,maybe its an age thing for me but I don't have the stomach for march April cold anymore .

That's me signing out until summer ☀️ 

Clocks go forward next weekend so I'm firmly in the looking for warmth camp now , heres to a nice summer and a Canadian SSW round about October to set us up for a prolonged freeze as we head toward December , we'll, a guy has to dream 😀 

Take care all ,until the next time 😁

 

Take it easy mate. Maybe by then the ECM will stop trying to shove out outliers, couldn`t manage on the 0z lol 😉

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.9bc4c91a710fc858d07b964234502bed.gif

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

Looking at the GEFS diagrams, looks like an outlier run from the OP around the 19th. This sort of coincides with the ECM but in the other direction.

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.16240b8e7d46a2f065d6406e9548df55.gif

2M temps still look steady though and a minima of maybe 5 overnight.

graphe_ens4.thumb.gif.032aed38ff00b0c835ff302e9fb06898.gif

 

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)

Flicking through the NH profile for the PV going forward. Current charts are slowly showing the recession of the PV due to the time of year. Chasing April? Not worth it.

2022 - April 15.                                                 2023 - March 25

Could contain: Art, Chart, Plot, Accessories, Modern Art, Pattern, Outdoors       Could contain: Pattern, Accessories, Art, Person

 

Due to always being excited for winter snow, never really looked in the opposite direction before looking for dry/warm. Will give it a bash this year.

EDIT: The trusty `CFS` for April 12. 

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Edited by Stuie
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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
2 hours ago, Stuie said:

Looking at the GEFS diagrams, looks like an outlier run from the OP around the 19th. This sort of coincides with the ECM but in the other direction.

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.16240b8e7d46a2f065d6406e9548df55.gif

2M temps still look steady though and a minima of maybe 5 overnight.

graphe_ens4.thumb.gif.032aed38ff00b0c835ff302e9fb06898.gif

 

Totally bizarre, yet another ECM outlier but this time follows the GEFS. This isn`t long range stuff. The 19th (in 4 days) is wobbly.

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.3c907dc4a1ed9cf240b793a04165ab97.gif

 

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Rain All Night Accomplished

Rain All Night

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Stuie said:

Due to always being excited for winter snow, never really looked in the opposite direction before looking for dry/warm. Will give it a bash this year.

I joined here in September chasing an Indian summer, which I didn't get (in spite of the above average temps for most of the Autumn), but then the enthusiasm of so many here for cold weather rubbed off on me, and when the very cold spell came in December I think I ended up enjoying it more than most here did, just for the novelty of going out walking on those bitter cold nights with sparkling surfaces everywhere and breathing that icy fresh air. So you never know, you might end up getting excited for the other side. At least with warmth the only added ingredient you need for it to be special is a clear sky, easier to get than settling snow... unless you want thunderstorms I guess, that might be more of a slog.

Edited by RainAllNight
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