Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

[Wingman Blue]

10 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

And less wind

anyhoo's,...the gefs ens are starting to flatline after next week and the warm-er ones are looking on shakey ground

i do feel that next weeks cold plundge might have more legs

18z vs 12z.

 

Agreed, winter hasn’t finished here yet, still some lying snow, three days of snow in the morning, melt in the afternoon. The 180m asl clearly helps.

This was yesterday morning but the two previous were similar.

[StingJet]

18 minutes ago, Mandy Orme said:

Love seeing all the snow pictures, but boy am I jealous , as a snow lover and lamp post watcher we not lucky this time as we have had a week of rain .Maybe next winter

An old saying that I am sure we have all heard, and called upon in the hour of need for the "white Stuff" 
This was an extract from a BBC Weather blog posted during the cold May of 2010 ,  but given the current synoptics , it is bang on "relevant" for the present tense   I think this excellent Topic will be alive and kicking for some time to come.

Edited March 11, 2023 by StingJet

[Ali1977]

Next week needs watching, likely colder and more codusuve for snow for most of the U.K. possible snow systems cropping up in the northerly flow anywhere !! 

[Bricriu]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Next week needs watching, likely colder and more codusuve for snow for most of the U.K. possible snow systems cropping up in the northerly flow anywhere !! 

Bank! I hope this does not get watered down now. If this comes off surely there will be settling snow about. I had snow from another system this morning, but none of it stuck again. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like low pressure is going to take up residence over the uk, in the days ahead, plenty of rain to come and wind....

[Wingman Blue]

Hope so, the high pressure was such last night that the fire wouldn’t draw!

The next ten days is looking like ‘back and forth’ cold and wet over very cold ground. 
Still very uncertain though.

[Supacell]

In many years i see March as being the month where snow is most likely to fall. Its just not the month where snow is most likely to stick.

[sheikhy]

Any upgrades for cold and snow next week from the big 3??!!

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any upgrades for cold and snow next week from the big 3??!!

The GEFS MEAN shows we are in for a wintery day for many on Tuesday!!

 

The ECM shows the rash of wintery showers - so I guess things will firm up a bit by tomorrow evening on the chances of some larger areas of snow!!

UKV has a system from the north introducing the much colder air,  then large shower activity from the NW 

It looks like a day of heavy sleet and snow showers most likely - the convection type which could be fun!! 

Edited March 11, 2023 by Ali1977

[PleaseSnow]

13 hours ago, matt111 said:

I get the feeling I'm the only one that still hasn't seen any snow yet (and I'm unlikely to now)

You’re not alone! Portsmouth hasn’t seen any either. 

[PiscesStar]

3 minutes ago, PleaseSnow said:

You’re not alone! Portsmouth hasn’t seen any either. 

Not have we really in herne bay.. Fleetingly as it tirnrd to rain Tuesday erdsnsday but nothing selling or any amount. Signs for next Tuesdays storm look promising, possible snow on its back edge 

[cyclonic happiness]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Looks like low pressure is going to take up residence over the uk, in the days ahead, plenty of rain to come and wind....

We REALLY need the rain still, especially in my area, the soil just 6" down is still dust from the drought last year.

This snow is good because, as it melts, it slowly seeps into the ground rather than just roll off the surface and down the drains.

But I'm conflicted as I really want spring and the warmth to come back :-p

[Fergpfc]

30 minutes ago, PleaseSnow said:

You’re not alone! Portsmouth hasn’t seen any either. 

Have to disagree with this as I looked at the window at 4 a.m. on Wednesday and it was white everywhere,however by 6 a.m the rain was washing it away

[phil nw.]

It looks like an up and down few days coming.

 

This photo sums this spell up I think.Winter reluctant to leave as one of the early Spring blossom appears.

[PleaseSnow]

1 hour ago, Fergpfc said:

Have to disagree with this as I looked at the window at 4 a.m. on Wednesday and it was white everywhere,however by 6 a.m the rain was washing it away

Yeah the grove got a bit but none down town way. 

[andy989]

 

It’s coming down thick and fast again

 

 

[StingJet]

18 minutes ago, andy989 said:

 

It’s coming down thick and fast again

IMG_9065.MOV 11.08 MB · 4 downloads  

 

  We just had an hour of "sleetiness" with 10-15 mins of monster flakes , back to light sleet now as the front clears through.



Turning mild tomorrow, Monday night into Tuesday looking interesting atm

Edited March 11, 2023 by StingJet

[JamesL]

4th morning on the trot here with falling settling snow at a modest 150m ASL in the Cynon Valley 

Last winter 21/22 we saw a big fat ZERO of snow days 

Edited March 11, 2023 by JamesL

[Fergpfc]

57 minutes ago, PleaseSnow said:

Yeah the grove got a bit but none down town way. 

Took the grandkids up Butser wed morning good  covering waterloovile northwards .3 inch butser

[Gregulator]

16 hours ago, matt111 said:

I get the feeling I'm the only one that still hasn't seen any snow yet (and I'm unlikely to now)

You're not the only one, I've not even seen any sleet!

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Gregulator said:

You're not the only one, I've not even seen any sleet!

I can't say that had some icy sleet in December, day before most of the SE got proper snow, in heavy showers that came from the wsw. The icy bits even landed with no melt it spite the rain with them it was so cold. I think the heavy bursts were all icy bits. Was a very weird night tbf. It was all rain, the next day, and it still didn't melt all the ice. Very weird weather, different that's for sure 

[minus10]

You'd think from here there would be some kind of easterly..

..but no...the gfs 12z doesnt make it..

we end up with this at t300

...after cold dip gfs seems all over the place from run to run at present...to be expected i suppose..however still signal for trough disruption and heights blocking in all these variations...

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Very short lived though, Tuesday just a 'toppler' really, back to mild again Wed/Thurs for south

[geordiekev]

Let's see how accurate the next yellow warning is, though suspect main concern may be for ice as the snow/rain pulls away

[Stuie]

23 hours ago, Stuie said:

That does seem to have `some legs` for now.

Regarding tomorrow night again, look where the LP or LP`s are currently and the forecast jet tomorrow. Track of tomorrows low could easily be more south and drag in less warmer air. Just having a punt.

Looking at current radar, this front isn`t swinging up from the SW, it is almost taking a NE/SE (like the jet) track with precipitation. Soon will be catching here.

Kind of pleased about that.