Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

[SLEETY]

Another cold outbreak from the N/Ne again later on this month is looking possible.You would not rule it out.CET for March in Northern Scotland going to be way below normal if that comes off.

 Very cold air in the Arctic.Iceland been having a very cold winter and now Spring.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes you beat me to it Feb

06z vs 00z at day ten...

and there is quite a cluster below the -5 line,...let's see how we progress with this and as you say,...the EPS need to be of the same page.

 

On the face of it, taken as an individual suite and not part of a intra-day multi-suite, this chart would be good for mid winter, its a rasper for 22nd march (10 years to the day since that famous Thursday / Friday night)

[Don]

Some pics and videos from the Shropshire hills yesterday.  

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Some ens member this one about to be churned out.

[Bradowl]

Yellow weather warning issued for South Yorkshire for later tomorrow and into Tuesday for Sleet and Snow. 

[Stuie]

Looking at potential for Tuesday snow, very slim pickings if any. Not much precipitation about but here is the Arpege and Arome`s take.

After the 2 day cold spell, looks like nudging double digit daytime temps for a while. (for the South) I don`t normally look past 4 or 5 days but the clustering on the GEFS is very tight.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

It turned out epic.

[Stuie]

only recently started to look at where LP`s get some of their fuel from. This weeks are still drawing from the arctic.

EDIT:

FAX does show this. They must use NCEP/GFS data.

Edited March 12, 2023 by Stuie

[Weather-history]

ECM 12z is very poor for back edge snow during Monday night/Tuesday morning south of the Border 

 

[Bricriu]

A few questions: Did - 20 upper air make it to England in January 1987? If not, has  it every happened before?  If - 20 air did manage to reach any of us in the next two weeks, what would be the surface temperature at this time of year?  

[Purga]

Well that would be a nice end to March.

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Bricriu said:

A few questions: Did - 20 upper air make it to England in January 1987? If not, has  it every happened before?  If - 20 air did manage to reach any of us in the next two weeks, what would be the surface temperature at this time of year?  

As far as I can see, it nearly did:

This is, I believe the coldest chart in living memory, but someone will no doubt correct me.  

Don’t think it will happen in the next 2 weeks!

Came reasonably close in 2018 BFTE though:

[Stav]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

As far as I can see, it nearly did:

This is, I believe the coldest chart in living memory, but someone will no doubt correct me.  

Don’t think it will happen in the next 2 weeks!

Came reasonably close in 2018 BFTE though:

I remember walking home from the pub in what I believe was the coldest minimum Hove ever had, -13C. That was cold.

[Weather Observer]

The other near miss was 1st January 1956 when meteociel shows -20 clipping the Kent coast.

[Weather Observer]

Just now, Weather Observer said:

The other near miss was 1st January 1956 when meteociel shows -20 clipping the Kent coast.

 

Just now, Weather Observer said:

The other near miss was 1st January 1956 when meteociel shows -20 clipping the Kent coast.

 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

ECM 12z is very poor for back edge snow during Monday night/Tuesday morning south of the Border 

 

Yes perhaps a couple of hours of wet light snow might be the best on offer for the far north of England, may wake up to a cover on Tuesday morning first thing.

Tuesday itself will be a cold day, cold 850mb temps, sub 522 dam air, might be some convection about to kick off some snow showers - will be an interesting day, in the sunshine it will feel ok, but in the shade and any showers quite arctic.

 

[andreas]

35 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

his is, I believe the coldest chart in living memory, but someone will no doubt correct me.  

I can well believe you. I looked back in my diary and on a bus journey in Northamptonshire and Cambridgeshire on 12 January 1987  the driver had to keep stopping as the windows were freezing up inside! In Cheltenham the maximum was -7.

[damianslaw]

38 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

As far as I can see, it nearly did:

This is, I believe the coldest chart in living memory, but someone will no doubt correct me.  

Don’t think it will happen in the next 2 weeks!

Came reasonably close in 2018 BFTE though:

Had the BFTE arrived a month earlier -20 degree line may well have breached the UK, alas it came probably just a smidgen too late in the season, whereas the 1987 spell arrived bang in the heart of winter, with minimal solar heating. 

[IDO]

No clear signal for any blocking, amplification or helpful SSW forcing right through to the end of March on the GFS. The op is a mild one this morning with Spring-like temps (London):

...but probably one for the bin.

The tPV mean suggests it is in a position that will not bring cold to our region (D8-16 mean):

The tPV core over Siberia in most of FI. We remain on the cold side of the jet, so cold shots remain on the card with a wedge in the right place. But scraps really as the winter closes out.

 

[Weather Observer]

Just for the record, my reference above to the -20c upper air temp clipping the Kent coast should have read 1st February 1956, not January. Sorry if anyone was confused. I remember it well living in Hampshire at the time. A bone chilling easterly. A grey stratus sheet but no appreciable snow except on the east coast, as in 1987.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The forum is Dead! I've had a long hard think about retiring til November....then thought...nahh,one last chase!

Key moments. Mild today but as rain clears tonight it could turn to snow on the back edge as colder air chases in! Also Frost and ice looking possible.

So Tuesday we see a colder day with wintry showers for some.. could be a fair amount of snow for some exposed locations.

Right then...beyond that it turns milder and less settled with cold conditions remaining further North..perhaps by the latter part of the weekend we again bring colder conditions South!

Rrrrrrr...interesting update from the met regarding High pressure building towards the North beyond this point,and colder air coming South which would again bring a wintry mix on that boundary line!

So perhaps we have another shot after tonight as we approach the final 3rd of the month!

So come on you lot...one last chase,then I promise I will let you all retire for the Summer!

Come onnnnnnn

[Don]

11 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

So come on you lot...one last chase,then I promise I will let you all retire for the Summer!

Come onnnnnnn

Nope, I will not be retiring for summer until mid April!! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I'm going no where. I live here all year round. This is my home ...

[Rain All Night]

35 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

The forum is Dead! I've had a long hard think about retiring til November....then thought...nahh,one last chase!

Key moments. Mild today but as rain clears tonight it could turn to snow on the back edge as colder air chases in! Also Frost and ice looking possible.

So Tuesday we see a colder day with wintry showers for some.. could be a fair amount of snow for some exposed locations.

Right then...beyond that it turns milder and less settled with cold conditions remaining further North..perhaps by the latter part of the weekend we again bring colder conditions South!

Rrrrrrr...interesting update from the met regarding High pressure building towards the North beyond this point,and colder air coming South which would again bring a wintry mix on that boundary line!

So perhaps we have another shot after tonight as we approach the final 3rd of the month!

So come on you lot...one last chase,then I promise I will let you all retire for the Summer!

Come onnnnnnn

No need to retire when you can start chasing this stuff instead!!

[Don]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

No need to retire when you can start chasing this stuff instead!!

That's exactly the reason too retire!!