Model discussion highlights

[Derecho]

29 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

Not seeing anything to support that wild claim in the model output! Double figures for many today and a mild night tonight with fluctuations in the coming days but nothing to support record breaking cold. Let's have some realism please.

Exactly, aside from a few cold minimums in northern Scotland, the recent cold hasn't been notable at all really. Snow in the first half of March isn't unusual and the EC this morning looks average. 

Record breaking cold is a phrase here that gets used too often. A colder synoptic and people get far too carried away. 

Yes December saw notable cold but that saw an Arctic air mass linger over us for 10 days combined with low solar radiation and slack winds, quite different. 

In fact global temperatures have been notably high in this recent cold spell. 

[ANYWEATHER]

I think we can safely say that it's normal service for early Spring! Alternating milder and colder spells ,does seem rainfall totals are going to mount up in the days ahead though....

[Anthony Burden]

56 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

Not seeing anything to support that wild claim in the model output! Double figures for many today and a mild night tonight with fluctuations in the coming days but nothing to support record breaking cold. Let's have some realism please.

High I suggest you look at GFS 00z 192 hrs onwards 

[Guest]

Just now, Anthony Burden said:

High I suggest you look at GFS 00z 192 hrs onwards 

Oh dear, if we are using model output beyond 192 hours on the GFS to justify record cold claims then things are pretty desperate! And even if that is to be given any credence, it was very much on the cold side of the ensembles:

You cannot make such outlandish claims on the basis of one det. run, that's a basic rule of model watching.

Notwithstanding all that, how about the output up to 192 hours, over a week of bog standard March fayre? Or does that not fit the narrative?

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

High I suggest you look at GFS 00z 192 hrs onwards 

After another blip mid-week, the mean is much closer to the 30-year average

 

[Anthony Burden]

1 minute ago, Tidal Wave said:

Oh dear, if we are using model output beyond 192 hours on the GFS to justify record cold claims then things are pretty desperate! And even if that is to be given any credence, it was very much on the cold side of the ensembles:

You cannot make such outlandish claims on the basis of one det. run, that's a basic rule of model watching.

Notwithstanding all that, how about the output up to 192 hours, over a week of bog standard March fayre? Or does that not fit the narrative?

High nothing is one hundred percent sure in weather terms but what is shown on any model over 120 hrs is subject to change,never the less March CET will show what I have suggested to be true or incorrect until then .

[MJB]

23 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

Oh dear, if we are using model output beyond 192 hours on the GFS to justify record cold claims then things are pretty desperate! And even if that is to be given any credence, it was very much on the cold side of the ensembles:

You cannot make such outlandish claims on the basis of one det. run, that's a basic rule of model watching.

Notwithstanding all that, how about the output up to 192 hours, over a week of bog standard March fayre? Or does that not fit the narrative?

For several runs GFS has shown a cooler /cold outlook for the rest of March - it's not outlandish and it ain't one run either 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Too many writing off the potential cold spell incoming and the recent cold, the other day the CET daily mean for 8th March was the coldest for 50 + years.  
 

BFTP

Edited March 12, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[nick sussex]

The ECM briefly tries to bring some colder air south with that wedge of heights to the north . The GFS is more bullish with some stronger heights there .

The uncertainty is how far south the jet tracks and how much if any trough disruption occurs .

The models are reluctant though to eject much shortwave energy se and the low to the sw fills slowly .

Certainly too early to rule out more cold from the n or ne given we don’t have a raging jet and heights are likely to remain favourable to the north .

As ever more runs needed.

Edited March 12, 2023 by nick sussex

[MJB]

Tuesday looking chilly and wintry in places 

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Too many writing off the potential cold spell incoming and the recent cold, the other day the CET daily mean for March was the coldest for 50 + years.  
 

BFTP

This cold snap is over though. It was 2 days in the south which produced sleet for most  and 5 days in the north with most falls reserved for high ground. It’s currently 8c in Leeds.
What cold spell incoming ? Even model runs that do show any cold in FI are very short lived pulses?  There are no runs showing a sustained ‘cold spell’ , certainly not ‘cold’ enough to deliver snow for most. 

[mushymanrob]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

This cold snap is over though. It was 2 days in the south which produced sleet for most  and 5 days in the north with most falls reserved for high ground. It’s currently 8c in Leeds.
What cold spell incoming ? Even model runs that do show any cold in FI are very short lived pulses?  There are no runs showing a sustained ‘cold spell’ , certainly not ‘cold’ enough to deliver snow for most. 

agreed, all i can see on the ops and the anoms is "normal" cold for March mixed with milder slots. I very much doubt now we can get anything Wintry (as in deep cold/ice days/widespread lying snow) without importing some extremely cold air... and there no sign of that.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

This cold snap is over though. It was 2 days in the south which produced sleet for most  and 5 days in the north with most falls reserved for high ground. It’s currently 8c in Leeds.
What cold spell incoming ? Even model runs that do show any cold in FI are very short lived pulses?  There are no runs showing a sustained ‘cold spell’ , certainly not ‘cold’ enough to deliver snow for most. 

Current one has ended correct.  But there’s enough model interest going forward, it may not happen….but imo it’s certainly on the table and to play for.

 

BFTP

[MJB]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

This cold snap is over though. It was 2 days in the south which produced sleet for most  and 5 days in the north with most falls reserved for high ground. It’s currently 8c in Leeds.
What cold spell incoming ? Even model runs that do show any cold in FI are very short lived pulses?  There are no runs showing a sustained ‘cold spell’ , certainly not ‘cold’ enough to deliver snow for most. 

It's a very rare cold snap that delivers snow for most - the 0z certainly gave potential for the white stuff with LP in the N Sea 

[SilverWolf]

As someone who lives in the south, I saw falling snow on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. The garden I was working in on Friday had 2 inches of snow on it until lunchtime. Sure, it wasn’t sub zero all week, and I wasn’t snowed in, but this hasn’t been a ‘normal’ March here. Not 2018 either, of course, but not normal for the last 30 years. Just an observation from someone who’s also worked outside for the last 15 years. 

Edited March 12, 2023 by SilverWolf

[Iceaxecrampon]

47 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

High I suggest you look at GFS 00z 192 hrs onwards 

 

41 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

Oh dear, if we are using model output beyond 192 hours on the GFS to justify record cold claims then things are pretty desperate! And even if that is to be given any credence, it was very much on the cold side of the ensembles:

You cannot make such outlandish claims on the basis of one det. run, that's a basic rule of model watching.

Notwithstanding all that, how about the output up to 192 hours, over a week of bog standard March fayre? Or does that not fit the narrative?

Hang on. 

GFS at t+45

[ANYWEATHER]

21 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Too many writing off the potential cold spell incoming and the recent cold, the other day the CET daily mean for 8th March was the coldest for 50 + years.  
 

BFTP

To be fair this cold spell was bog standard for most ,nothing like 2013 or even 2018. It delivered snow for many, and lying snow for some, but in all honesty I never saw temperatures dip below minus 2 here, I've known temperatures dip below that in May ! The tops turvy weather is normal fair coming up, nice to see something milder from the models at times as well. ☺

[EML Network]

06Z GFS keeps things interesting from a cold lovers perspective. At least for the North of the UK.

This month is likely to be a very memorable one for the extreme North of Scotland especially.

UK seemingly stuck right on the trajectory of the Jet with warmer air the the South and colder Air to the North and the Midlands stuck in between

210 chart shows this well.

Regardless of where you are one thing looks relatively certain...for the next week its probably gonna be wet

[Updated_Weather]

5 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

 

Hang on. 

GFS at t+45

When has a GFS snow chart ever materialised? Almost close to none always OTT

[MJB]

10 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To be fair this cold spell was bog standard for most ,nothing like 2013 or even 2018. It delivered snow for many, and lying snow for some, but in all honesty I never saw temperatures dip below minus 2 here, I've known temperatures dip below that in May ! The tops turvy weather is normal fair coming up, nice to see something milder from the models at times as well. ☺

I think to much hope was probably put against the SSW x2 , I didn't have any frost on my car all week . Had an awful lot of snow falling that was wasted as it got soaked up by the ground .

Edited March 12, 2023 by MJB

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

 

Hang on. 

GFS at t+45

That's not record cold! A bog standard toppler and usual caveats apply with those snow charts.

[Crackerjack]

18 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

As someone who lives in the south, I saw falling snow on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. The garden I was working in on Friday had 2 inches of snow on it until lunchtime. Sure, it wasn’t sub zero all week, and I wasn’t snowed in, but this hasn’t been a ‘normal’ March here. Not 2018 either, of course, but not normal for the last 30 years. Just an observation from someone who’s also worked outside for the last 15 years. 

Spot on I’m just down the road from you and I’ve enjoyed this March so far and I think we are classed as lowland south  

Models are still showing some transient  wintery potential going forward and until they don’t I’m up for the chase. Had some fabulous frosts here to this winter (sub -9c) and that’s the best winter in a long time. 
 

my flip flops come out in May thanks until then I keep the boots close at hand

[Derecho]

25 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

As someone who lives in the south, I saw falling snow on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. The garden I was working in on Friday had 2 inches of snow on it until lunchtime. Sure, it wasn’t sub zero all week, and I wasn’t snowed in, but this hasn’t been a ‘normal’ March here. Not 2018 either, of course, but not normal for the last 30 years. Just an observation from someone who’s also worked outside for the last 15 years. 

But snowy weather in early March isn't unusual looking back historically. It's just that March over the last 20-30 years has been so much milder then in decades gone by.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

21 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To be fair this cold spell was bog standard for most ,nothing like 2013 or even 2018. It delivered snow for many, and lying snow for some, but in all honesty I never saw temperatures dip below minus 2 here, I've known temperatures dip below that in May ! The tops turvy weather is normal fair coming up, nice to see something milder from the models at times as well. ☺

Agreed the spell we just had wasn’t major as it fizzled fairly quickly, but coldest CET 8th March since 1970 shows it had a bite.  Let’s see what comes after the next plunge, 

 

BFTP

[sheikhy]

Wouldnt be too confident on mild weather just yet!!currently the atmosphere is prone to sudden upgrades of cold and and snow at a relatively short time frame!!!12zs shall be of interest!!!

Edited March 12, 2023 by sheikhy