Model discussion highlights

[Don]

38 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Thank you very much for the forecast and for the "sneak preview"!

The Hadley cell expanding towards the UK from April onwards sounds good to me!!

In the nearer term the models seem to be toning down the height rises to our north as the TPV moves away, and are showing what just looks like a modest amount of "disruption" (I think that's the word?!) to the Atlantic trough to our west.

 

Latest Met Office extended outlook hinting at higher pressure to the north towards late March.

[stodge]

Evening all

My rather simple take (compared with some of the quality posts on here) is that between residual Greenland heights and slack heights over the Azores, an elongated but shallow trough covers the Atlantic and periodically extends across the British Isles.

We're not talking LP of 950 MB or anything like that - little or no cyclogenesis, indeed the LP approaching begin to fill and weaken as they arrive on a jet which is increasingly moving to the south.

JMA shows what could happen if we caught a break between LP systems but other models don;t allow for that and instead maintain a broadly unsettled theme with neither the heights to the north nor those to the south able to break through the trough in th short term. Some indication toward the end of the month of another attempt at heights over Scandinavia but that's a long way off.   

[Rain All Night]

The EC46 is not in any hurry to change the pattern...

At least we can watch the PV die now. Thanks for the delayed Spring buddy!!

[Cambrian]

That bubble of heights in the western Mediterranean edging up into the Low Countries prevents passage east of the Atlantic low at day 3, serving us up a mild southwesterly flow towards the end of this week, as shown here on the 12z GFS ensemble mean. 

  

The pattern becomes decidedly slack at day 6. Heights beginning to build around Greenland, while the Siberian PV quietly gathers itself. 

  

Yep. But don’t let us be fooled, the Arctic pool of cold may well not be entirely done with us yet. By day 9, the Greenland heights strengthen further and extend further south, pushing the Atlantic low south and east. The low Atlantic heights begin to interface once more with the base of the reinforced Scandinavian trough as cold PV heights again extend southwest down the Norwegian Sea, the two troughs combining to give the UK and Ireland some more battleground welly. 

  

After the mild interlude, the mean T850s fall around 6 degrees in 6 days, to be comfortably below freezing by day 9. Days 3, 6 and 9.

  

It’s certainly not spring-like, though not suggesting anything extremely cold either. It’s a bit of a twilight zone for the winter. 

Having said that, the north of the UK and Ireland looks solidly cold again, the upper trough of the Atlantic low is clearly being squeezed very flat, and with the low heights extending southeast into France and Iberia, it looks like a better setup for little sliders breaking off and heading across the south than we had during the last week. 

There’s another difference too, with that nose of heights pushing southeast towards Iceland, and the Greenland heights clearly not scarpering this time, there’s more longevity to the setup, still broadly the same from day 8 to 16.

Twilight zone for winter maybe, but it really wouldn’t need much variation on the theme of these mean charts to bring a more widespread wintry episode or two before we’re done with the snow gloves and wellies, and go rummaging around for the sun hat. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98485-model-output-discussion-snow-watch-limited-edition/?do=findComment&comment=4831547

[Rain All Night]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall seeing the TPV form into a huge blob like this that falls off Meteociel's colouring scale during this winter just gone, only on archive charts from previous years? Is it being 'fed' by the cold in Siberia where it's just moved to?

[SLEETY]

Gfs brings back very cold Arctic air at the end of the run. That's too far out yet to get that excited, but in the nearer term we seem to be moving towards the cold air in the North, that never leaves Shetland moving back South after the weekend. 

Very interesting charts still and ECM was keen on colder air returning too. 

Yet hardly any posts, despite the chance of very air cold returning. 

???? 

[Chesil View]

6 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Gfs brings back very cold Arctic air at the end of the run. That's too far out yet to get that excited, but in the nearer term we seem to be moving towards the cold air in the North, that never leaves Shetland moving back South after the weekend. 

Very interesting charts still and ECM was keen on colder air returning too. 

Yet hardly any posts, despite the chance of very air cold returning. 

???? 

In truth though Sleety. None of these cold returning charts actually show anything worthwhile  for the areas that missed out on snow last week..

Those long fetch northerlies look like nice eye candy charts but for your location and mine just provide windy bright cold days with the outside chance of a passing wintry shower if we're  lucky.  Without an embedded polar low they just gives us bog standard bright chilly spring days.

[daz_4]

Why would anyone be excited for a cold snap at the end of March?

Thankfully this SSW didn't do much for mainlaind Europe in terms of cold (March will most probably be above average month here) and looking at models spring will now begin for real.

[Nick2373]

 

The 00z brings this morning something more March like from the 17th onwards, then hints of something at the end of the month. I should imaging we'll see a shift to something more spring like from the 27th more members flirting above average,  Roll on warmer weather because as pointed out above what's the excitement for a SSW at the end of March. 

[nick sussex]

More wet and windy weather to come with the cold air close to the north so still a chance of more snow there .

For coldies still holding out hope for more widespread wintry weather even this late on the models are reluctant to take low pressure further se so struggle to get the cold further south .

The JMA would be the pick of the bunch for a last taste of winter , the ECM and GFS and GEM  have a similar pattern but with the jet further north.

The UKMO is least interested in any wintry tease .

Edited March 14, 2023 by nick sussex

[Rain All Night]

21 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Thank you very much for the forecast and for the "sneak preview"!

The Hadley cell expanding towards the UK from April onwards sounds good to me!!

In the nearer term the models seem to be toning down the height rises to our north as the TPV moves away, and are showing what just looks like a modest amount of "disruption" (I think that's the word?!) to the Atlantic trough to our west.

This week...

Next week...

You can see how this might re-aim the "Atlantic firehose" further south and possibly into Europe, the GFS going much further with that idea than the ECM...

Unfortunately that seems to be about as much interest as we are getting for the time being...

Are we going to see any effects (not snowmageddon ones obviously) from the second stratospheric reversal episode that peaked at the beginning of March?

The odds of this not becoming another prolonged soaking seem to be lengthening unfortunately... hopefully based on the ongoing cycle between weeks of wet and weeks of dry, this will mean we get a spell of lovely warm dry weather in April!

Edited March 14, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Cambrian]

Recent runs of the ECM operational have been resolutely resistant to the narrative of the jet stream sinking south, it’s far enough south coming out of the States, but readily buckles over the ocean, with the frequent flick northeast over the UK and Ireland typically being maintained through to day 10, as here on the 0z run. 

  

Keeps it blowing hot and cold - well, milder and colder, but with some potent cold stabs mixed in. The real story is the piling up of the accumulated precipitation totals, captured neatly by this exceedingly groovy graphic, a very wet period ahead for the west, 3-4 inches of rain, possibly more, for the west of Ireland, Scotland, Northwest England and Wales, and based on the last few days, likely if anything to be an underestimation. Eastern side of Sicily looks nice if planning an outside banquet. 

Looking out for a bit more of a steer from the 12z’s - like that stronger surge south of the jet stream in the mid-Atlantic on the ECM op at day 10 to develop into something a bit more definite, leaving enough of a gap for that wedge to the north we keep getting promised on the anomaly charts to give us something to party for, yeah, like the 6z GFS control at day 9/10…

 

…else it’s just puddles man. 

[Nick2373]

06z Brings or looks like trying something more warmer from the 21st onwards, the members seem to be flatten out and the ppn spikes dropping, there's a lot of mess also around this period which may point to a pattern change. Hopefully the spring will roll in with some workable warmth 

[minus10]

Gfs 12z run dominated by the northern trough over or near us..

 

...although the op at the bottom it is supported by many ens with quite a cluster on the pressure..

 

....so if this is anywhere near the mark i think we are in for an unsettled time with plenty of coldish rain...maybe snow on northern hills..good for the gardens if not the gardeners as get some still needed moisture into the soil ( for south eastern areas) before whatever the summer gives us..

 

Edited March 14, 2023 by minus10

[Summer8906]

On 13/03/2023 at 09:59, mushymanrob said:

More like March 1970 to me, as 75 didnt produce lying snow here, just endless cold Northerlies. Either way, June 70 was great and summer 75 was great...

Nah, March 1981, looking at today's dismal, cyclonic GFS runs. I suspect for a combination of dull, wet and unremarkable temperatures, no March in the intervening period will have come close.

[stodge]

Evening all

Last night's theme of an elongated and shallow trough between heights to the north and south continues and it's quite an unsettled picture with plenty of rain over the next few days as we move more W'ly than SW'ly as the jet is squeezed down towards us.

One or two models showing what might happen if the trough is split and heights rise but no clear signal as yet for a Scandinavian or Greenland heights rise to be sustained to the point it takes over from the Atlantic. 

In truth, nothing remarkable - interesting but no more. No sign, it must be said, of any prolonged warmer and drier weather before month end.

[Sun Chaser]

Some remarkably warm outliers on the GFS 12z from around day 9 or 10. Every fibre of my being is hoping one of them comes off. In reality though, things look to be trending slightly cooler (and still wet) for the final week of March. I know this is deep into FI but when the outlook is as dismal as it is currently, this is all we can do. I suppose this is the definition of "payback weather" (if it exists) for such a dry second half of winter. 

In fact the mean, for such a long way out, suggests some very strong ensemble agreement on a trough to the west in around 10 days. After that less so, perhaps there is an opportunity for things to dry out following the 25th, but that's so far out that any kind of analysis would be hopecasting.

You know things are bad when you're relying on the CFS for any kind of interesting or enjoyable weather 

[Cambrian]

Can’t help but feel there is still scope for a wintry surprise or two before March is out, while setups keep cropping up where the margins are so very fine. 

A great example at day 7, the 12z ECM operational run brings some impressively cold air south into the north of the UK, T850 at -10 degrees in Scotland.

  

The warm sector to the west slides southeast as the low disrupts against the UK-Greenland wedge at day 8, 

 

on this run delivering a smattering for many from London and the Home Counties north. 

 

Mid to late March it might be, but with sharp cold in place over the north, a Greenland wedge and an Atlantic low happy to disrupt, itself packing some cold air wrapped in behind the warm sector, these are particularly fine margins for a wide spread of outcomes ranging from unseasonably cold and dry, through to wet and windy, and with a fair few snowy points in between. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98485-model-output-discussion-snow-watch-limited-edition/?do=findComment&comment=4832202

[Paul]

Locking this one now as we go back to a single model thread, which is available here:

This thread will now act as the model highlights thread, based on posts marked as 'insightful' by members in the main model discussion.

[Cambrian]

I like the ECM control for often being useful in sniffing out longer term trends, indicating the general direction of travel, especially when it keeps tight with the operational run up to its end at day 10. 

Yesterday’s 12z and today’s 0z are a case in point. And look where the control is headed from around day 9 on the ensembles. 

 

It’s a fair point that the ensemble means are staying close to average, but if you take the T850 of -5 degrees for Birmingham as a cut-off and compare the two runs, there is quite a tight cluster below -5 forming after day 9 or 10 on the 0z that wasn’t there yesterday. 

The control itself has a very reasonable evolution too, shown here through to day 15, the steady west-east movement of the Atlantic trough, stalling over Europe as heights building through central Russia, combining with those Greenland heights we’ve been watching, serve to lock the trough in place and keep us in the polar air and a cold, cyclonic setup.

 

The movement of the trough to the east of the UK and Ireland and then stalling over Europe and the push of heights into Greenland are both supported by the 0z ensemble mean, so there is broad synoptic support for the control. 

As usual, I have no great preference either way, it does what it does, but there are some reasonable indications here that a decidedly cold week for Northwest Europe at the end of March is very feasible. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4832726

[Eagle Eye]

In my last post I did a bit about the A-Level paper on Cyclone Freddy I'm starting before I've done my GCSE's as well as the forecast 

A bit more from my paper so far and then the latest update;

"The closer setup that provided the ability for cyclogenesis. The setup provided a monsoon trough in the eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean area with large convection along the coasts of Indonesia stretching to northern Australia and east Timor.  In northwest Australia the moisture stream advects NW’wards up from the Broome to Darwin area through the Kimberly Plateau with the topography of the region playing a role in enhancing convection and forcing along the Wunaamin Milwundi ranges. The convection envelope along the southern coast of Indonesia helps with localised transportation of heat and mass exchange for an area of stronger convection for a certain area to form and if divergence is weak enough and low-level convergence can occur then that’s the very general idea of tropical cyclogenesis formation.

This setup is a good example of how the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) can help with formation of tropical storm systems given the ITCZ’s effect on the MJO and the link between the two. The ITCZ is the band of convergence around the equator where trade winds from the northern and southern hemisphere meet. A pre-existing ITCZ can sometimes help with convective layer growth strengthening in the MJO as it did with Indian Ocean convection here. The modulation of MJO strength from weak convective layer upscaling strength with a strong ITCZ is at about a 30% rate for MJO strengthening events but this appears to be one of them with the convective envelope diffusing down from an initial ITCZ appearing to modify MJO strength.

The Indo-Pacific MJO modified temperature pool is a big factor in pre-conditioning for the intensification over the Indian Ocean into an equivalent category 5 strength tropical cyclone. The outflow from the convection envelope west of Indonesia develops its own cold pool with the convection warm pooling and that’s important because that cold pool is dynamically lifted equatorward and along the northern edge of that cold pooling is the strongest shearing sector parallel to the cold pooling and so the MJO pre-modifies the shearing in the Indian Ocean. The warm pool meanwhile has little shearing associated and as shearing plays a big role in whether a Tropical Cyclone forms

The MJO convection envelope also increases the absolute vorticity in the general vicinity with the best lobe of vorticity showing between Australia and the northern edge of Indonesia increasing the convergence in the tropics area and the MJO clearly has quite a big influence on the development of the trough system with the best low-level characteristics of high convergence, large amounts of energy and low shearing for cyclone Freddy to eventually form.

There’s also a cold dry air slot on the other side of the convection with the outflow that’s part of the suppressed MJO phase for that area with a noted ‘Gill response’ like movement in moisture either side of the dry slot with the main mode of the convection being westerly as it was around that time that the westerly winds associated increased in the area and the low-level wind field started becoming more cyclonic around the area of formation.

The primary source of energy in the tropics is the latent heat release meaning that the strongest source of the storage of potential energy is the small-scale temperature gradients. The localised heat flux being important in transferring surface energy to the atmosphere and modification of low-level wind fields via energy and meridional wind budget redistribution from the replacement of heating.

The low-level atmosphere moisture is of course linked to the amount of latent heat released and impacts upon the convective rain which is important for the energy budget in the atmosphere and has more of a response in the tropical atmosphere than stratiform rain. Therefore, the distribution of smaller scale heat diffusion within CCKW’s here are linked more to the MJO convection envelope than their independent uniform quasi-geostrophic balanced gradients.

The latent heat release at the surface is related more to the MJO’s effect on the ITCZ and the orography of regions than relatively larger CCWK’s. The MJO and a CCKW are not completely independent of each other though; the synoptic scale zonal winds linked to a passing CCKW are noted to have similarities when understanding MJO and the supressed and active phases. The area between pre-CCKW easterlies and the westerly winds are often an area of the active MJO phase before it becomes mostly stratiform precipitation with the westerly wind burst as the convection gets suppressed. You can even see that on the diagram with the lift and moisture just above the surface skin across the Oceania region followed by the less buoyant dry air that’s reached south of the Semarang area.

The smaller scale latent heat release is not a direct link with the CCKW and more to do with the diffusion of warm air from MJO forcing on sub-synoptic scales therefore the MJO plays a big role in the active distribution of heating and energy in the tropics important for forcing Kelvin and Rossby waves on tropical and planetary scales as well as being a predictor for wavebreaking on both spatial and temporal scales.

You can see the large-scale moisture and warmth fall from the equator and poleward (this is situated in the southern hemisphere) and that’s probably characterised best by the warm air over Australia and that also managed to reach New Zealand as the Rossby Wave train (RWT) passed towards the southern Pacific. However, that is besides the point.

It is more difficult (compared to the MJO) to attribute localised moisture returns to a CCKW as these are much smaller scale than a kelvin wave is and the strongest outflow and wind anomalies may not be delineated by the strongest convection and subtle troughs also attributed to the MJO cannot be picked up well (usually) by a CCKW diagram.

"

A few quotes from my recent forecasts

28th February;

"So we have a double AAM spread with the MJO Indo-Pacific linear time linking. This looks to put tension on eastwards movement in the North Atlantic and drag the jet back. So this is really looking like a sign that this upcoming event may not be it if we can get it all to time together for just before late March though anytime before then is good really if we can get the best fetch in terms of easterly or northerly."

The forecasts do suggest something on the chilly side but I think it's too late for anything really that cold away from Scotland but I'm still quite happy with that given that it's monthly forecasting. I think people will have more memory of the first one though.

March 8th

"This is a setup similar to the PM air around mid-Jan for the UK with the SE US ridge and mid-Atlantic ridge. That helps with the trend towards a PM airflow for the next effects of the RWT. Initially, the pull is just from the WNW and that really struggles to pull in cold but as the high moves further North it pulls it more from the NNW and so mid March may bring in chilly air again."

It ended up being late March but I'm fairly happy with that, it was in line with the models at the time and time give credit to them at Day 12 or so they were only a week under the time it's sort of expected at.

March 13th

"This WWB likely destructively interfered with the holding pattern signal as the SSW's influence weakened into just the retrogressing RWT and that' where we begin to see the North Pacific return to the low pressure above the ridge given the shift towards jet retraction given the -VE EAMT over the coming days supporting a return to semi-zonal/UK-Scandi high to be more influential as we move towards April."

Boom, really happy with that though it was perhaps an easier forecast than the others.

The destructive influence of the WWB can be seen at just day 3 really well now and it'd setting up a more semi-zonal kind of setup with a jet retraction rather than an equstorward jet as the AAM falls from the recent -VE EANY though the retraction is unlikely yo be large. The SE US ridge isn't entirely stable in terms of advection given that it's the start of US storm season it can easily be pulled up via WAA from troughs and that may favour a weak RWT like pattern especially as momentum rises rather than falls over the North Atlantic and so I could see the rising of the UK-Scandi high possibly sometime around April. AAM is unlikely to rise enough for it now and the North Pacific Jet stays slightly retracted buy I think eventually we'll see a poleward shift/extension and as we go into Spring that may favour AWB that leads to a UK-Scandi type high. Given the nuetral/Nino ENSO state expected and how the AAM has been acting over Winter, there may be a slight favour towards a warmer summer however thers only if the high is forced correctly. As it could quite easily be forced into the mid-Atlantic if the SE US ridge remains in place as that's the typical response given that setup as a Rossby packet 'pushes through'. Alternatively, if the forcing from the background signal is for AWB similar to early March then unlikely early March; the high might be pushed more towards a UK-Scandi high and that's typically a warm summer flow as far as I know. It's what some of the seasonal models are showing with an Ekman pumping esque WAA scenario which is really not good for the heat haters.

There's a lot less teleconnection forecasting that can be done for Spring and Summer though and you rely a lot on essentially composites based off how the monsoon seasons go around the world surprisingly. I think it's too early to base Summer of the SSW though as its destructive influence is likely to end sometime in April as the WWB in the ENSO seeks to have had more of an effect on the setup particularly in North America over the recent week or so. So despite SSW's typically having really bad Springs for people who like moderately warm Springs, this might not be too bad. Though I do still worry about the SE US ridge because if it can't get too high then we may have a windier Spring than Winter and if it can't get too low then we may be chillier because it promotes mid-Atlantic blocking and polar maritime air as a side effect. It has to be just right if it remains there.

The problem with wanting little precipitation in early Spring is that it tends to come from the dry air pattern that can remain through Summer like last year and so droughts become a risk. Then if one trough comes along and a big thunderstorm is formed then flash flooding can be a major risk.

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4834166

[mushymanrob]

Signs of a change?
The NOAA 8-14 dayer isnt a bad chart, as the mean upper trough is located well to our West, and although we have a moderate WSW upper flow over us, its not bad, despite being unsettled. Its not a "monsoon" chart and should be moderately mild. Theres still a weak high pressure anomaly to our South which on the lastest EPS for the 7th (the NOAA is centred on the 2nd) has developed further. It might be just to our West, but the heights are good with the 552DAM over most of the Country in a flow sorced to our Southwest.

Im liking this!

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4835013

[Rain All Night]

I've been posting FI ensemble mean charts for days, with the sustained pattern change not getting too much closer. I'm hoping it's a good sign that we've now got this negative precipitation anomaly coming up from the south, and the positive anomaly disappears completely from the UK. I would have thought that in early April, the "average" rainfall (i.e. no anomaly) would not be terribly much rain for many places, and would allow for some completely dry days when averaged over a week as on these charts.

I have been curious, based on other posts here, whether this would be an unusual time of year to have an Atlantic-driven weather pattern persisting for weeks longer than has already been the case. I won't attempt to directly answer this, but if anybody wants to try to draw their own conclusions, I have written a little summary for each of the last 10 years giving each pattern change I can see on the ECMWF reanalysis charts in (roughly) the last week of March and the first week of April.

Charts: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=17&month=3&hour=0&year=2013&map=0&region=nh&mode=2&type=era

2013* - continental flow c. March 19th, Atlantic flow c. April 10th
2014 - continental flow c. March 25th, Atlantic flow c. April 4th
2015 - Atlantic flow with NW-SE tilt c. March 23rd, anticyclone over UK c. April 4th
2016 - Atlantic flow with strong NW-SE tilt c. March 25th, continental flow c. April 10th
2017 - anticyclone over UK c. March 24th, Atlantic flow c. March 28th, anticyclone over UK c. April 5th
2018** - Atlantic flow c. March 23rd (following 2nd "Beast") with the track pushed far to the south from c. March 28th, continental flow c. April 10th
2019* - anticyclone over UK c. March 25th, continental flow c. April 5th
2020 - continental flow c. March 20th, NW-based anticyclone c. March 28th, southerly flow c. April 5th, ridge over UK c. April 9th
2021* - Atlantic flow c. March 22nd, ridge over UK c. March 29th, NW-based anticyclone c. April 1st, northerly flow c. April 5th
2022 - anticyclone over UK c. March 24th, northeasterly flow c. March 30th
2023** - Atlantic flow c. March 8th, still going as of March 24th, still showing on semi-reliable model output (including today's 12Zs) up to March 31st...

* SSW in January ** SSW in February

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4835380

[Mike Poole]

I think we might see a trend towards a more settled second half of spring now, I had pointed to mid April for this and stand by it, possibly a tad earlier.  I always smile slightly at the ‘standard spring fare’ type comments during the first half of spring, because for me, the first half of spring is very much a Jekyll and Hyde period, as it depends to a significant extent on the way the atmosphere was left at the end of winter, vis a vis the stratospheric vortex.  

On the one hand there is the scenario where the strat vortex gradually loses steam, without any shenanigans, towards a benign final warming, this is more likely to bring an early spring in my view.  On the other hand, is a late winter SSW (as this year) or a more explosive final warming (which would be classed as a SSW were it not also the final warming), either way a more amplified meridional pattern may persist for some weeks.  Not that the UK will always be on the cold side of it, but probably will be some of the time, and it is a bit longer before the jet stream can trend to the more northerly track associated with summer.  

Just starting to see evidence now that the SSW has more or less run its course at about 6 weeks.  Zonal winds at 60N from the GFS 12z illustrates:

Two things here, first is the last of the negative wind anomalies seems to drip down into the trop days 5-15.  Secondly, at the top the returned westerly winds are waning towards the final warming.  It is as if the strat vortex has returned to active duty following the SSW, only to find it has a terminal illness due to the inexorable march towards summer, here T6 and T384 shows it now on the way out.

But this should be a benign process from now on, and some warmth should be forthcoming…

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4835985

[Cambrian]

The 6z GFS op at day 10 and day 12.

Ah, if only these charts were for the Easter weekend….

  

then this high pressure might look very apt too.

 

The GFS clearly having the UK and Ireland in mind with its very kind placing of a 1030mb+ gift, though of course at this (free) range, it might well be over-egging it. It certainly deserves a Grade A for now. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4836892