Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[damianslaw]

Models moving towards a more settled theme next week than perhaps anticipated. Plenty of fine usuable weather, nothing overly warm,but pleasant all the same. I'm not complaining. This Spring feels quite old school, no silly early heat.. that reserved for summer proper.

Edited May 12, 2023 by damianslaw

[Summer tyre]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Intensive farming and overpopulation……

Off topic I know, but the massive groundwater and underwater reservoir abstraction for strawberry and other soft fruit growing in the South of Spain is not going to end well.

[Mike Poole]

3 hours ago, MattH said:

Stripping it right back and it has been a pleasing watch to see NWP slowly evolve towards a long-term prediction. A heatwave, certainly not, but a welcomed spell of late spring weather is most certainly on the horizon, despite what some would have you think here...

Cheers, Matt

 

Yes, your recent posts have been very much on the money about the medium term evolution here, Matt.  And that is now consistently modelled in the NWP output, with the heights to our NE now nailed on for some time.  The fly in the ointment is that the modelled evolution towards this has contrived to leave the UK consistently with lower pressure, which has left the weather very unseasonably cool for mid-May. 

Today’s ECM 0z one of the better runs in the next 10 days, here T216:

While the broad pattern looks very sorted, there is big uncertainty for the UK locally, as seen on the clusters T192-T240:

Whatever happens at the timescale of a week or so, this should eventually resolve itself in favour of an improved picture for the UK, I think.  (Although I think I’ve said that before!) And the regimes plot from the ECM 46 is quite striking as to the prominence of the scandi block pattern now, as the model sees it:

The May GloSea6 run is out, and temperatures well above average for summer seems to be the call, here’s the outer quintiles for 2m temperature:

The UK expecting >55% probability of temperatures in the highest quintile, a strong signal there.  

The tercile plots for 500 hPa heights and sea level pressure are interesting:

The pressure plots shows lower pressure to the south, higher to the north and northeast, and lower pressure near the Azores.  Less noticeable on the heights plot, possibly reflecting the strong signal for warmer than average.  It can be quite difficult to read too much into these 3 monthly probability plots, but I would suggest an increased likelihood of significant plumes, and thundery breakdowns, would be consistent with this, i.e. not really very similar to recent summers.  And given an unclear signal for precipitation, maybe a lower likelihood of prolonged spells of dry weather.  We will see…

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Mike Poole

[mushymanrob]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, your recent posts have been very much on the money about the medium term evolution here, Matt.  And that is now consistently modelled in the NWP output, with the heights to our NE now nailed on for some time.  The fly in the ointment is that the modelled evolution towards this has contrived to leave the UK consistently with lower pressure, which has left the weather very unseasonably cool for mid-May. 

Today’s ECM 0z one of the better runs in the next 10 days, here T216:

While the broad pattern looks very sorted, there is big uncertainty for the UK locally, as seen on the clusters T192-T240:

Whatever happens at the timescale of a week or so, this should eventually resolve itself in favour of an improved picture for the UK, I think.  (Although I think I’ve said that before!) And the regimes plot from the ECM 46 is quite striking as to the prominence of the scandi block pattern now, as the model sees it:

The May GloSea6 run is out, and temperatures well above average for summer seems to be the call, here’s the outer quintiles for 2m temperature:

The UK expecting >55% probability of temperatures in the highest quintile, a strong signal there.  

The tercile plots for 500 hPa heights and sea level pressure are interesting:

The pressure plots shows lower pressure to the south, higher to the north and northeast, and lower pressure near the Azores.  Less noticeable on the heights plot, possibly reflecting the strong signal for warmer than average.  It can be quite difficult to read too much into these 3 monthly probability plots, but I would suggest an increased likelihood of significant plumes, and thundery breakdowns would be consistent with this, i.e. not similar to recent summers.  And given an unclear signal for precipitation, maybe a lower likelihood of prolonged spells of dry weather.  We will see…

 

So these charts are begining to support what both Tamara and Matt H have been predicting.... nice one.

[near northampton]

3 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Intensive farming and overpopulation……

Yep agreed And golf Courses

[alexisj9]

On 11/05/2023 at 09:31, Met4Cast said:

Virtually impossible to put a timescale on it but it does suggest spells of very warm/hot weather at times, rather concerning given the heat building up across N Africa/S Spain for example, albeit I'd be surprised if we broke the UK all time record again, soil moisture is just too high.

When it doesn't rain, soil is still as dry as a bone here, really weird how quick it dries out.

[MattH]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, your recent posts have been very much on the money about the medium term evolution here, Matt.  And that is now consistently modelled in the NWP output, with the heights to our NE now nailed on for some time.  The fly in the ointment is that the modelled evolution towards this has contrived to leave the UK consistently with lower pressure, which has left the weather very unseasonably cool for mid-May. 

Today’s ECM 0z one of the better runs in the next 10 days, here T216:

While the broad pattern looks very sorted, there is big uncertainty for the UK locally, as seen on the clusters T192-T240:

Whatever happens at the timescale of a week or so, this should eventually resolve itself in favour of an improved picture for the UK, I think.  (Although I think I’ve said that before!) And the regimes plot from the ECM 46 is quite striking as to the prominence of the scandi block pattern now, as the model sees it:

The May GloSea6 run is out, and temperatures well above average for summer seems to be the call, here’s the outer quintiles for 2m temperature:

The UK expecting >55% probability of temperatures in the highest quintile, a strong signal there.  

The tercile plots for 500 hPa heights and sea level pressure are interesting:

The pressure plots shows lower pressure to the south, higher to the north and northeast, and lower pressure near the Azores.  Less noticeable on the heights plot, possibly reflecting the strong signal for warmer than average.  It can be quite difficult to read too much into these 3 monthly probability plots, but I would suggest an increased likelihood of significant plumes, and thundery breakdowns, would be consistent with this, i.e. not really very similar to recent summers.  And given an unclear signal for precipitation, maybe a lower likelihood of prolonged spells of dry weather.  We will see…

 

Hi Mike. Just a quick one, but yes, it is interesting to see GloSea come up with that solution because that is what the May EC Seasonal has shifted to as well, which you no doubt have seen. In recent months it has certainly been the ECMWF Seasonal that has been the most significant in terms of a blocking high over NW Europe, almost similar to 2018, but I've never fancied that solution, so the decline of any key +ve 500mb height and MSLP anom more to the N and NE, along with evidence for lower than usual pressure to the SW, is definitely of interest.

While we do always get thunderstorms each summer, there has definitely been a lack of what I would call a more 'typical' British Isles summer, characterised by the usual madness surrounding one week of heat, and humidity for it then to all end with thunderstorms and the following week the BBQ's and deck chairs are pushed to one side for some time. This is what I was implying in the earlier message. It would certainly make for an interesting summer, in terms of actual weather conditions and not just all about focus on heat records.

Clearly, time is nearly up for any summer forecasts, but the full seasonal updates mid-month, on Copernicus, could be telling, especially if, unlike in recent months, there is something of a better agreement between all the models for this broader pattern, because up to April, there has been little or no consistency over much apart from yet another summer of above average temperatures.

Cheers, regards. Matt.

Edited May 12, 2023 by MattH

[danm]

Another good GFS run from Tuesday/Wednesday onwards. Increasing influence from the Azores high...

[summer blizzard]

As we wait for the 12z to come out i took a look at the 0z models. 

Both the Euro and GEM 0z essentially kept to the pattern advertised yesterday, that of a broad ridge building north of the UK and then heading east as low pressure displaces this around days 9/10. 

It's worth saying that the GEM does bring in a thundery plume.

The GFS0z was something of an outlier because the high remained to our west through day 10. 

The GFS6z was another operational outlier by simply avoiding doing anything and just avoiding an Atlantic attack. 

The GFS12z looks more like the morning GEM and Euro with low pressure breaking through around day 9/10. 

GEM 12z is somewhat similar to its 0z run but with a closer high. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looking at the GEFS ensemble mean, it just looks to me like something you see every summer these days, Azores HP extending through the UK into N Europe

This is what caused the 2018 drought.

Azores HP ridging across the UK isn't my cup of tea as I prefer more 'active' and varied weather (including storms) but I'll have to roll with the punches!

CFS seeing it as a general foundation pattern through June

To me there is increasing evidence that June may well be the best month of the summer (there seems to be a strong HP signal across the board wrt the seasonals). I'm tentatively seeing a summer deteriorating as it progresses and I feel August could be really poor for summer weather.

Edited May 13, 2023 by CreweCold

[B87]

5 hours ago, CreweCold said:

To me there is increasing evidence that June may well be the best month of the summer (there seems to be a strong HP signal across the board wrt the seasonals). I'm tentatively seeing a summer deteriorating as it progresses and I feel August could be really poor for summer weather.

Hopefully this isn't the case, and the Azores high remains in place all summer, especially after this spring.

[Scorcher]

37 minutes ago, B87 said:

Hopefully this isn't the case, and the Azores high remains in place all summer, especially after this spring.

Yes and the recent trend is for much better Augusts after a long spell of poor ones (going back over a decade).

There is no way anyone can predict confidently that far ahead and there is clearly some personal bias affecting this particular judgement.

[ANYWEATHER]

Big differences between the Big two GFS/ECM even by middle of next week, certainly looks a messy picture next week with heavy showers developing once again.....

[northwestsnow]

Hope I'm not jumping the gun but NWP seems to have flipped to a much more settled set up and the apps have gone much more settled today too with little rain forecast up North after mon/ Tues.. 

[Sunny76]

On 12/05/2023 at 10:31, Alderc said:

The problem is I’m going next week from Wednesday to play golf. If I want to play golf in the cold and rain I can do that in this country perfectly well.  Additionally after another severe back injury playing in the warmth allows me more physical movement and negates the severe stiffness and pain I suffer, that why I don’t want it to rain in Spain next week. Just immensely frustrating knowing any other week would have been fine. 

Yeah Spain and Portugal do not need lots of unsettled weather. They just need a couple of severe thunderstorms.

I hope it’s still hot or warm and dry enough for you. 
 

 

On 12/05/2023 at 13:42, damianslaw said:

Models moving towards a more settled theme next week than perhaps anticipated. Plenty of fine usuable weather, nothing overly warm,but pleasant all the same. I'm not complaining. This Spring feels quite old school, no silly early heat.. that reserved for summer proper.

I disagree, as it’s been very tedious having to endure days of either unsettled rainy weather, or other days with mainly cloudy conditions and temps still on the chilly side.

Yes, there were a few warmer and humid days just recently, making mornings and evenings a little milder, but they have been in short supply.

[Sunny76]

7 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Yes and the recent trend is for much better Augusts after a long spell of poor ones (going back over a decade).

There is no way anyone can predict confidently that far ahead and there is clearly some personal bias affecting this particular judgement.

Yeah, if a poor spring becomes the norm over the next few year, but we get a good sunny August in return, I’ll take it

22 hours ago, MattH said:

Hi Mike. Just a quick one, but yes, it is interesting to see GloSea come up with that solution because that is what the May EC Seasonal has shifted to as well, which you no doubt have seen. In recent months it has certainly been the ECMWF Seasonal that has been the most significant in terms of a blocking high over NW Europe, almost similar to 2018, but I've never fancied that solution, so the decline of any key +ve 500mb height and MSLP anom more to the N and NE, along with evidence for lower than usual pressure to the SW, is definitely of interest.

While we do always get thunderstorms each summer, there has definitely been a lack of what I would call a more 'typical' British Isles summer, characterised by the usual madness surrounding one week of heat, and humidity for it then to all end with thunderstorms and the following week the BBQ's and deck chairs are pushed to one side for some time. This is what I was implying in the earlier message. It would certainly make for an interesting summer, in terms of actual weather conditions and not just all about focus on heat records.

Clearly, time is nearly up for any summer forecasts, but the full seasonal updates mid-month, on Copernicus, could be telling, especially if, unlike in recent months, there is something of a better agreement between all the models for this broader pattern, because up to April, there has been little or no consistency over much apart from yet another summer of above average temperatures.

Cheers, regards. Matt.

Just have a feeling this summer will deliver on the thunderstorm side of things. Still chilly air floating around, so when it does become hot, this could trigger some widespread storms.

[danm]

GFS and UKMO both looking decent after Monday. Some hints that the low over Iberia will drift north towards southern areas by next weekend, but that’s a way off. 

[mushymanrob]

looking good for the bank holiday in 2 weeks.... all indications are that this general pattern will be in place, and this suggests warmth, but will we get any showers?

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters this morning showing improved confidence in a swathe of higher pressure crossing the north of the country, T120-T168:

This is an improved picture for this period than was being predicted a few days ago, particularly for the north, exemplified by the GFS 0z run, T144:

Quite a bit of uncertainty thereafter, but a clearer picture emerging T264+:

Strong signal for high heights to the NE, and low pressure to our W or SW.  This fits very much with the predictions of the seasonal models for June, with 500 hPa heights anomalies showing below average heights out to our southwest, higher to the northeast:

(Apart from the ECCC one which seems always to be at odds with the rest, best ignored.)

Also, note that is height anomaly - the pressure over the Azores less than average, but not a ‘low’ as such, as it is below an average which is a high base.

Warmer than average temperatures from the models for June:

But, all models going for at least slightly wetter than average apart from CFS (labelled NCEP):

So there does look potential for some quite plumey, thundery weather in June.  

Signal for July, not clear at all.  Going back to the heights anomaly, the ECM on its own in pushing for high heights over the UK, so warm and dry likely from that model, but the other models are not committing themselves.

Edited May 14, 2023 by Mike Poole

[damianslaw]

Not a bad outlook at all, high pressure generally ruling the roost, the azores high becoming more influential than it has for quite some time - ridging NE and linking with heights to the NE through the coming week. The net result, a pleasant dry spell of weather for most in the main. May be cool and cloudy near east coastal parts, and cloud could be slow to clear in some places. Feeling quite warm, high teens for many, nudging low 20s next weekend.

As we move in late May, no major change expected, perhaps weak atlantic frontal attack from the NW, but making little headway and its back to the ridge through the UK. I can see the second half of May being much sunnier and drier for the south at least with temps consistently a little above average and at times in the warm category.

All fairly standard fayre for the time of year, not renowned for being a period of atlantic assualt, and in many a year can produce the first real shot of heat, im not seeing anything notably warm, but warm all the same. 

Edited May 14, 2023 by damianslaw

[ANYWEATHER]

Trend from the models is for lowering of pressure from the south as we move into next week ,the final part of May, so more unsettled conditions for the south with potentially heavy thundery showers ,the north hanging on to the more settled weather the longest.....

[B87]

48 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Trend from the models is for lowering of pressure from the south as we move into next week ,the final part of May, so more unsettled conditions for the south with potentially heavy thundery showers ,the north hanging on to the more settled weather the longest.....

It's unrelenting isn't it. Can we not have at least 1 run that has the best weather in the SE for once?

[Sunsetglimmer]

54 minutes ago, B87 said:

It's unrelenting isn't it. Can we not have at least 1 run that has the best weather in the SE for once?

It don’t look cold though in sunshine will be nice and some big juicy storms would be fantastic too! 

[danm]

ECM looking very nice for the week ahead. Plenty of dry and sunny weather. 

[Metwatch]

That's solid, that is proper solid.

ECM 12z next Saturday for context.