Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[chapmanslade]

7 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

I agree with that, Scott. But I must confess, that whenever 'experts' tell me I'll wake up to a million feet of snow, only to get NOTHING, my emotions can still take over! 

An expert will never do that! If they do then they are not experts!

[MattStoke]

17 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

I agree with that, Scott. But I must confess, that whenever 'experts' tell me I'll wake up to a million feet of snow, only to get NOTHING, my emotions can still take over! 

That’s the whole reason I got interested in weather prediction; To see why I kept missing out on snow that was forecast (When I lived in London). Wondering ‘how hard can it be to predict snow?’. Turns out, very  Instead of writing something (e.g. weather prediction) off as nonsense when it’s predicted outcome doesn’t come off as expected, like some do, I try and look into and understand it more. Be curious, not judgmental.

Edited July 13, 2023 by MattStoke

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Judging by this I would say that we are back exactly to the encroaching lows, downstream ridge scenario according to the GFS 6Z operational in two weeks time which although isn't ideal its an improvement on what we are currently enduring.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

 

[alexisj9]

23 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

I agree with that, Scott. But I must confess, that whenever 'experts' tell me I'll wake up to a million feet of snow, only to get NOTHING, my emotions can still take over! 

It anyone ever says that, they are no expert, ignore them.

[knocker]

24 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I think psychologically people fall in love with weather models because they believe absolutely anything is possible forecast wise and the thought that science has come along this far to allow us to forecast a lot further into the future scares them.

The certainty scares them and takes away the fun.

But weather is a science and must be studied scientifically taking emotion out of the equation altogether

Which is precisely how the models have evolved since the second world war. The study of teleconnections, including troposphere/stratosphere interactions, is still pretty much in it's infancy but with a fair bit of it being incorporated in the models as they continue to develop. But at the end of the day, as far as I'm aware, this is mainly a thread for interpreting the model output, which I suspect is not helped by the information overload now available

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Which is precisely how the models have evolved since the second world war. The study of teleconnections, including troposphere/stratosphere interactions, is still pretty much in it's infancy but with a fair bit of it being incorporated in the models as they continue to develop. But at the end of the day, as far as I'm aware, this is mainly a thread for interpreting the model output, which I suspect is not helped by the information overload now available

It's the name dropping and moaning I have trouble with, I just scroll past, but the highlighted member gets sent right to reading the moan about them. 

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It's the name dropping and moaning I have trouble with, I just scroll past, but the highlighted member gets sent right to reading the moan about them. 

Bill Smith. 

[Eagle Eye]

38 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It's the name dropping and moaning I have trouble with, I just scroll past, but the highlighted member gets sent right to reading the moan about them. 

People don't seem to like that they might be wrong about something and don't like to learn about it even if evidence is given. Tamara often corrects me but you don't see me calling her names,  I made a mistake and I learn from it. If you know you've got something wrong, why do so many people double down on it? There's no need for name calling, if you made a mistake or don't like what someone else is thinking about the model output, just roll with it. We aren't perfect but we can try to be good.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Addicks Fan 1981]

I'd say this is pretty much the resumption of our pattern at present with a westerly flow according to the GEFS mean that falls in line with the operational run pretty well.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=31&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Under -2 850s i'd expect snow from these 

[KTtom]

8 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

People don't seem to like that they might be wrong about something and don't like to learn about it even if evidence is given. Tamara often corrects me but you don't see me calling her names,  I made a mistake and I learn from it. If you know you've got something wrong, why do so many people double down on it? There's no need for name calling, if you made a mistake or don't like what someone else is thinking about the model output, just roll with it. We aren't perfect but we can try to be good.

This is the issue tho.. Net-Weather is a Weather Site where amateurs can discuss the weather, guidance is one thing but posters shouldn't need 'shutting up' because they don't agree with others. 

One thing no-one can argue about, this weekend is going to feel autumnal!

Edited July 13, 2023 by KTtom

[Paul]

As we've gone off on something of a tangent this pm, and we've not had a fresh thread for some time, I'm going to lock this now and get a new one opened shortly.

New thread here: