Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[Scott Ingham]

3 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

As much as I enjoy reading Tamara's posts, I cannot ignore the fact that the LRFs have and will be wrong for the first 20 days of July, and that ECM ensembles D6-D15 have been a good guide since their upgrade. 

I disagree. The uptick in summery weather and in my opinion a plume for the end of july was forecast by the lrf's due to background tropical signals and angular momentum forecast to be strongly on the rise. This forecast for me is absolutely nailed on without any doubts at all. The science behind this is rock solid! Its only the timing that will be out (which no model or forcaster can get a handle on perfectly. A hot period of weather is 100% on the way just pushed back end of july start of august. Look at 240 hours ecm. Its already sniffing a cut off low solution. Watch forecasts for a plume gain traction quickly soon. The signals and tropics dictate to weather models. Not the other way round.

Its coming......

Edited July 13, 2023 by Scott Ingham

[KTtom]

3 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

I disagree. The uptick in summery weather and in my opinion a plume for the end of july was forecast by the lrf's due to background tropical signals and angular momentum forecast to be strongly on the rise. This forecast for me is absolutely nailed on without any doubts at all. The science behind this is rock solid! Its only the timing that will be out (which no model or forcaster can get a handle on perfectly. A hot period of weather is 100% on the way just pushed back end of july start of august. Look at 240 hours ecm. Its already sniffing a cut off low solution. Watch forecasts for a plume gain traction quickly soon. The signals and tropics dictate to weather models. Not the other way round.

Its coming......

If the science is 'rock solid' can you explain why the met are not having a sniff of this hot weather in their lrf? In fact they go as far as saying the chances of hot weather into mid August is lower than normal? Do you know something they dont? in which case your in the wrong job. UKMO an improvement this morning for next week but GFS pretty much follows the met forecast with NW winds due to the stubborn position of the  Azores  high.

[terrier]

Well back to square one this morning on the GFS 00z  low pressure systems just keep coming right the way out into FI. Definitely no signs of anything warm or settled on this run. 

[Nick2373]

37 minutes ago, KTtom said:

If the science is 'rock solid' can you explain why the met are not having a sniff of this hot weather in their lrf? In fact they go as far as saying the chances of hot weather into mid August is lower than normal? Do you know something they dont? in which case your in the wrong job. UKMO an improvement this morning for next week but GFS pretty much follows the met forecast with NW winds due to the stubborn position of the  Azores  high.

Spot on KTom I think there is sometimes a over analysis at times from people the weather is a fickle thing and will do want it wants even if its not to script. 

[Nick2373]

18z still continues the theme of unsettled with temps just hovering below or on average plus side of things the amount of rain seems to drop next week, it seems for now or at least the next 7-10 days the weather continues with temps lower than what we seen last July, 40c last July down to 20c this year. 

[alexisj9]

7 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

As much as I enjoy reading Tamara's posts, I cannot ignore the fact that the LRFs have and will be wrong for the first 20 days of July, and that ECM ensembles D6-D15 have been a good guide since their upgrade. 

Did she make such a forecast?

[Nick2373]

4 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

I disagree. The uptick in summery weather and in my opinion a plume for the end of july was forecast by the lrf's due to background tropical signals and angular momentum forecast to be strongly on the rise. This forecast for me is absolutely nailed on without any doubts at all. The science behind this is rock solid! Its only the timing that will be out (which no model or forcaster can get a handle on perfectly. A hot period of weather is 100% on the way just pushed back end of july start of august. Look at 240 hours ecm. Its already sniffing a cut off low solution. Watch forecasts for a plume gain traction quickly soon. The signals and tropics dictate to weather models. Not the other way round.

Its coming......

It seems this is the case even in the winter, When chasing the cold charts with heaps of snow I think even with all the computer modelling and runs are not 100%. Anything past 7 days is FI In the weather world.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Nick2373

[alexisj9]

58 minutes ago, KTtom said:

If the science is 'rock solid' can you explain why the met are not having a sniff of this hot weather in their lrf? In fact they go as far as saying the chances of hot weather into mid August is lower than normal? Do you know something they dont? in which case your in the wrong job. UKMO an improvement this morning for next week but GFS pretty much follows the met forecast with NW winds due to the stubborn position of the  Azores  high.

Probably cause they don't want a return of the two weeks of 40⁰ temp headline from the end of last month, they always wait, they do the same with cold, for the same reason.

[clark3r]

Hats off to those who wrote the whole of July off right at the beginning, the gfs outlook this morning anyone would think it is autumn. 

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

If the science is 'rock solid' can you explain why the met are not having a sniff of this hot weather in their lrf? In fact they go as far as saying the chances of hot weather into mid August is lower than normal? Do you know something they dont? in which case your in the wrong job. UKMO an improvement this morning for next week but GFS pretty much follows the met forecast with NW winds due to the stubborn position of the  Azores  high.

Tamara and Matt Hugo have already gone through the reasons why. The science in my opinion is definietly rock solid. In my opinion its not a matter of if but when this period of warmth hit the UK. Timing only to be decided.

Only time will tell

[Nick2373]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Tamara and Matt Hugo have already gone through the reasons why. The science in my opinion is definietly rock solid. In my opinion its not a matter of if but when this period of warmth hit the UK. Timing only to be decided.

Only time will tell

Do you think that sometimes there's to much over analysis of long range forecasts? after all a stopped clock is right twice a day, heat will return yes that is a law of averages bit like betting on horses you have a winner after a time. 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Nick2373

[Scott Ingham]

16 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

It seems this is the case even in the winter, When chasing the cold charts with heaps of snow I think even with all the computer modelling and runs are not 100%. Anything past 7 days is FI In the weather world.

It is to an extent. But broadly speaking using gdsm products you can make a semi good effort of knowing where the main pieces of jigsaws will be in play. In summer its easier to be able to say if we have a set up bringing winds from the south its going to be hot these days. You cant guarentee that air from the north or east in winter will bring snow in a warming planet were in

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Nick2373 said:

Do you think that sometimes there's to much over analysis of long range forecasts? after all a stopped clock is right twice a day.  

No not at all its a science using basic physics and what can be said with confidence is AAM is going to rise substantially in a background state of La Nino which according to these laws is going to bring air from our direct south soon

[MattStoke]

8 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Tamara and Matt Hugo have already gone through the reasons why. The science in my opinion is definietly rock solid. In my opinion its not a matter of if but when this period of warmth hit the UK. Timing only to be decided.

Only time will tell

2024?  

[mb018538]

Crunch time...will the lull around 7/8 be filled with low pressure like the GFS run shows, or will high pressure start to build like the GEM?



  

[Scott Ingham]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

2024?  

Hahaha no beginning of August, maybe last 2 or 3 days of July

[mb018538]

I'd urge some caution with forecasts at this sort of range though.....this little blighter is going into the mixer and will cause chaos.

[alexisj9]

19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Tamara and Matt Hugo have already gone through the reasons why. The science in my opinion is definietly rock solid. In my opinion its not a matter of if but when this period of warmth hit the UK. Timing only to be decided.

Only time will tell

It's building now in Europe, and a low does keep being modeled now cut off near Portugal, just waiting for the next few steps.

[Scorcher]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I'd urge some caution with forecasts at this sort of range though.....this little blighter is going into the mixer and will cause chaos.

May be just what we need to shake up this very tedious, stagnant pattern.

Hopes are certainly rising this morning for more dry weather for the cricket next week in Manchester. The GFS would be pretty decent until day 5.

[Nick2373]

00z shows nothing spectacular for next week or so, something of a raise in temps around the 24th, pretty much what's being shown for the 15th then hints of a change around the 28th perhaps? control and few toying over the 30 year mean. 

[mb018538]

ECM sitting between GFS and GEM by day 10. Helpful!

[winterof79]

5 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

I disagree. The uptick in summery weather and in my opinion a plume for the end of july was forecast by the lrf's due to background tropical signals and angular momentum forecast to be strongly on the rise. This forecast for me is absolutely nailed on without any doubts at all. The science behind this is rock solid! Its only the timing that will be out (which no model or forcaster can get a handle on perfectly. A hot period of weather is 100% on the way just pushed back end of july start of august. Look at 240 hours ecm. Its already sniffing a cut off low solution. Watch forecasts for a plume gain traction quickly soon. The signals and tropics dictate to weather models. Not the other way round.

Its coming......

Yes and Tamara has been close to the mark in her predictions

signs at the end of July of flattening rainfall and uptick in temps will build

[Guest]

52 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM sitting between GFS and GEM by day 10. Helpful!

GFS Ops was stubbornly below the mean and the mean wasn’t great however at least there’s some scatter now appearing with some warmer solutions in the ensembles suite.  GEM certainly trending more positively as shown and UKMO at 168 shows the least troughy output we’ve seen in a while and actually wouldn’t take much to open the flood gates to warmer air from the south. I was slightly concerned after seeing the gfs ops runs but viewing things across the board it’s a case of Slowly slowly catchy monkey   

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Tell you what @Aldercthe ECM 00Z ensemble mean backs the op at 240 hours with a ridge but with NW winds.  I'm looking at it cautiously but there is scope for something a bit drier.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

 

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Tell you what @Aldercthe ECM 00Z ensemble mean backs the op at 240 hours with a ridge but with NW winds.  I'm looking at it cautiously but there is scope for something a bit drier.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

 

As long as it's not this, I don't mind the mean below. Wouldn't be hot, but around average and decent enough out of showers.