Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[Addicks Fan 1981]

It's satisfactory sypnotics @mb018538but not brilliant.  It'll do and at least we are having usable conditions, not exactly brilliant for high summer but could be worse.    

[Derecho]

I think its fair to say the GFS 00z OP went off on a bit of a tangent in the later stages...

It has consistently had trough diving from the NW to the UK in many runs now only for this to be downgraded or delayed closer to the time. EC and UKMO are reasonable later next week and I think that's as far as we can go for now. The outlook is likely to be better the further south-west you go but whether it'll be a cyclonic north-westerly or anticylconic north-westerly for the following week is anybody's guess. 

[mb018538]

Look away now if you are after anything good from the day 10-15 ECM ensembles this morning, they are grim to say the least.

[terrier]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Look away now if you are after anything good from the day 10-15 ECM ensembles this morning, they are grim to say the least.

Ouch. Can tell the schools break up for summer next week. Those are absolutely awful

[Tamara]

10 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

As much as I enjoy reading Tamara's posts, I cannot ignore the fact that the LRFs have and will be wrong for the first 20 days of July, and that ECM ensembles D6-D15 have been a good guide since their upgrade. 

I live in Portugal, so at face value should be ambivalent about the work in progress of a UK summer that (like everywhere else in the NH) is barely half way through. But scrutiny based on 10 to 15 days of the middle third of July does not change a whole seasonal perspective half way through that season and apparently override the known outcome that preceded it for a whole first month of summer (which broke national UK records).

The actual  "LRF" under discussion is not even the first 20 days of July. It is based, as stated above, on expectations for the middle to latter third of the month. Which is not in the true sense even an LRF at all.....

This quoted post also ignores the fact that the first 10 days of July blended out overall in itself is still very close to the suggested seasonal anomaly and that which the diagnostic elements towards framing the summer as a whole were based on. Even taking into account many, including my humble self, overlooking the depth of the retrograde low angular momentum period which now dominates that middle to latter part of July.

Notwithstanding that, the seasonal diagnostic  (framing a true LRF & not an intra monthly interlude within that season as a whole) is equally pertinent still with a whole month of summer to go which has been discussed in detail for all that could, and very well might entail,.Unless doubt on that is also already being made- subject to the (apparent) absolutes of face value numerical modelling.

Contributions to a voluntary forum by a mix of amateur, professional & simply weather pattern studiers like myself are not paid for. Yet, and speaking more generally outside the response to the quoted post, some of the commentary on this thread acts under a microscope that reacts emotionally to numerical model output and does not attempt to listen to, or understand the complexities behind the diagnostics that drive the weather patterns. No-one owes anyone else anything on here - especially as many of those who criticise the most offer little themselves in terms of attempted insight.

As such, and with so much else of more importance to do in the real world, it is, frankly, quite reasonable to wonder if there is any point in taking spare time out to bother.

 

 

 

[danm]

UKMO is good this morning for next week, I’ll glad have whatever it’s drinking. It does seem on its own though as the ECM keeps the high further SW with a cooler NW’erly, but it still shows some element of a push of Azores ridging into the UK. The GFS is also not too bad next week until we get towards the weekend. 

Anything beyond next weekend i’m paying little to no attention to in the Op runs. 

Edited July 13, 2023 by danm

[MattH]

I somewhat reluctantly share this screenshot of a part of the weekly long-range analysis I do for work, to essentially 'shut up' those almost ridiculing the outlook but nothing ever changes with forums, social media and the like, so no surprises. That being said, there's definitely a requirement to counterbalance some of the daft comments in here so far this morning.

To say, generically 'LRF have and will be wrong' is wrong in itself, which is both comical and ironic. This a very broad brush statement with no clarification on what LRFs have been looked at, I know mine haven't been incorrect as we mid-July approach, even though there has been an underestimation for the longevity of the more cyclonic spell, this has already been flagged in the last week or so. The return of the GSDM data through mid-to-late June created much better clarity on the way things were going, as the below screenshot highlights, which I produced on the 25th of June, so comfortably over 2 weeks ago now. Take particular note of my final paragraph...

For those asking why the UKMO outlooks often change and are incorrect, that is simply because they are 'model monkeys' and primarily use blended products that include the EC Monthly, MOGREPS and GloSea. Granted still a very powerful forecasting tool and set of NWP products. They do analyse teleconnections, but the usual ones only, NAO, MJO, et al and when these are nullified, as is often the case through the summer period as compared with winter, it is then back to the default of going with what NWP shows. Clearly, this doesn't always tell the whole story and why the GSDM should always be factored into gauging longer-term trends and transitions. The science being it is very sound indeed and, as I alluded to yesterday, on numerous occasions has pre-empted NWP through the week 2 and 3 period over the years I've been studying it and using it.

As I say nothing changes on social media and forums, but when you have a decent platform like Netweather and the model thread, some users perhaps just need to have a rethink of what they want to say before the fingers start typing.

Cheers, Matt.

[bluearmy]

For whatever reason, the 12z eps suites seem more inclined to push the heights a little further east than the 00z runs. The gefs are really not interested beyond next weeks flirtation with an improvement. The geps also meh. 
 

the nwp remains steadfast in refusing to embrace a really summery spell before month end 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, MattH said:

I somewhat reluctantly share this screenshot of a part of the weekly long-range analysis I do for work, to essentially 'shut up' those almost ridiculing the outlook but nothing ever changes with forums, social media and the like, so no surprises. That being said, there's definitely a requirement to counterbalance some of the daft comments in here so far this morning.

To say, generically 'LRF have and will be wrong' is wrong in itself, which is both comical and ironic. This a very broad brush statement with no clarification on what LRFs have been looked at, I know mine haven't been incorrect as we mid-July approach, even though there has been an underestimation for the longevity of the more cyclonic spell, this has already been flagged in the last week or so. The return of the GSDM data through mid-to-late June created much better clarity on the way things were going, as the below screenshot highlights, which I produced on the 25th of June, so comfortably over 2 weeks ago now. Take particular note of my final paragraph...

For those asking why the UKMO outlooks often change and are incorrect, that is simply because they are 'model monkeys' and primarily use blended products that include the EC Monthly, MOGREPS and GloSea. Granted still a very powerful forecasting tool and set of NWP products. They do analyse teleconnections, but the usual ones only, NAO, MJO, et al and when these are nullified, as is often the case through the summer period as compared with winter, it is then back to the default of going with what NWP shows. Clearly, this doesn't always tell the whole story and why the GSDM should always be factored into gauging longer-term trends and transitions. The science being it is very sound indeed and, as I alluded to yesterday, on numerous occasions has pre-empted NWP through the week 2 and 3 period over the years I've been studying it and using it.

As I say nothing changes on social media and forums, but when you have a decent platform like Netweather and the model thread, some users perhaps just need to have a rethink of what they want to say before the fingers start typing.

Cheers, Matt.

‘Model monkeys’ !   A little cruel Matt but broadly true I think. 

 

[Uncle_Barty]

33 minutes ago, Tamara said:

.

As such, and with so much else of more importance to do in the real world, it is, frankly, quite reasonable to wonder if there is any point in taking spare time out to bother.

 

 

 

It is exactly the content from the likes of yourself and others, that I come on here to read. Your posts are massively appreciated here.

I am usually one of the 'silent majority'.

There are a number of posters that emotionally react to each twist and turn in the MO; I skim past those.

In the light of the very useful posts looking at global patterns, I would pay very little attention to the NWP past about 7-8 days until they begin to show a consistent pattern, and with a reasonable amount of inter-model agreement.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

As long as it's not this, I don't mind the mean below. Wouldn't be hot, but around average and decent enough out of showers.

noaa are bang in line with those charts

Edited July 13, 2023 by mushymanrob

[Dorsetbred]

4 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

It is exactly the content from the likes of yourself and others, that I come on here to read. Your posts are massively appreciated here.

I am usually one of the 'silent majority'.

There are a number of posters that emotionally react to each twist and turn in the MO; I skim past those.

In the light of the very useful posts looking at global patterns, I would pay very little attention to the NWP past about 7-8 days until they begin to show a consistent pattern, and with a reasonable amount of inter-model agreement.

Sadly, this forum is on the cusp AGAIN, of loosing technical resources that provide an in depth knowledge of weather action and reaction. SO OFTEN, this forum has lost some great people due to incessant bickering, back stabbing, and cruel personal attacks, and IT's ONLY THE WEATHER, for goodness sake.

Having spent many years on here, I've seen great people chased away, typical for social media. BUT, Netweather has been a great place for people to respect people (in the main), tr***s and the likes have no home here (no suggestions they exist), But PLEASE, it is only the weather NOT WORLD WAR III, we are discussing. Let's be human, and share our thoughts, without the need for verbal assassination.

##MODS, I appreciate you will remove this (after a time possibly)##

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Thank you @MattHand @Tamarafor enlightening us of the goings on currently.  Whilst it's disappointing it could be worse and at least the CET as things stand is slightly above normal.  

What I think would be a great idea is if hovmoller plots were monitored on a daily basis pretty much all of the time as well as other components that come with whatever weather we have.   

Safe to say that the models have had a tough time handling troughs and where they are exactly positioned, unfortunately those troughs have found their way in the vicinity of the UK.   

Am no expert myself but I would say I am a quick learner and capable just as much as the rest of the forumites here.   

[knocker]

I often thank my lucky stars that I was kicked out of this forum

Edited July 13, 2023 by knocker

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

I often thank my lucky stars that I was kicked out of this forum

[thestixx]

1 hour ago, Tamara said:

I live in Portugal, so at face value should be ambivalent about the work in progress of a UK summer that (like everywhere else in the NH) is barely half way through. But scrutiny based on 10 to 15 days of the middle third of July does not change a whole seasonal perspective half way through that season and apparently override the known outcome that preceded it for a whole first month of summer (which broke national UK records).

The actual  "LRF" under discussion is not even the first 20 days of July. It is based, as stated above, on expectations for the middle to latter third of the month. Which is not in the true sense even an LRF at all.....

This quoted post also ignores the fact that the first 10 days of July blended out overall in itself is still very close to the suggested seasonal anomaly and that which the diagnostic elements towards framing the summer as a whole were based on. Even taking into account many, including my humble self, overlooking the depth of the retrograde low angular momentum period which now dominates that middle to latter part of July.

Notwithstanding that, the seasonal diagnostic  (framing a true LRF & not an intra monthly interlude within that season as a whole) is equally pertinent still with a whole month of summer to go which has been discussed in detail for all that could, and very well might entail,.Unless doubt on that is also already being made- subject to the (apparent) absolutes of face value numerical modelling.

Contributions to a voluntary forum by a mix of amateur, professional & simply weather pattern studiers like myself are not paid for. Yet, and speaking more generally outside the response to the quoted post, some of the commentary on this thread acts under a microscope that reacts emotionally to numerical model output and does not attempt to listen to, or understand the complexities behind the diagnostics that drive the weather patterns. No-one owes anyone else anything on here - especially as many of those who criticise the most offer little themselves in terms of attempted insight.

As such, and with so much else of more importance to do in the real world, it is, frankly, quite reasonable to wonder if there is any point in taking spare time out to bother.

 

 

 

I value your input immensely along with several other users of this forum. Thanks for taking the time post.

[alexisj9]

29 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

It is exactly the content from the likes of yourself and others, that I come on here to read. Your posts are massively appreciated here.

I am usually one of the 'silent majority'.

There are a number of posters that emotionally react to each twist and turn in the MO; I skim past those.

In the light of the very useful posts looking at global patterns, I would pay very little attention to the NWP past about 7-8 days until they begin to show a consistent pattern, and with a reasonable amount of inter-model agreement.

Reacting to a model run is fine to get emotional about, if that's your thing, I don't have a problem with that, but sniping and calling out other members moaning about there forecasts and stuff isn't really cricket.

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

noaa are bang in line with those charts

Eeek  

[Buzz]

1 hour ago, Tamara said:

As such, and with so much else of more importance to do in the real world, it is, frankly, quite reasonable to wonder if there is any point in taking spare time out to bother.

 

 

 

As the old saying goes: "Don't let the b*stards grind you down".

Remember that, as in most walks of society, it's usually the case that a a few rotten apples spoil the barrel - in other words the majority of posters here value not only your input but that of the other experts and professionals who post in the model output thread. I sincerely hope that you and the other experts continue to post here and that the mods identify and discard the rotten apples.

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

What we also need to take into account @Aldercis it had a very average confidence rating for days 8-14 and above average for days 6-10, so on the face of it not totally certain.   

[Howie]

52 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

noaa are bang in line with those charts

And I bet we won't see anything resembling that this winter

[terrier]

And so the GFS06z continues with the unsettled theme right out into FI. Yes a few usable days next week for sure. But all in all a very cool showery outlook or longer spells of rain right out till T384.

[Downburst]

If I might add, there is one or two on here that are clearly purposefully and irrationally emotive. I am not a phycologist, but I believe the intent is to project their own misery for some reason on the internet. The weather is top class fodder for these types and even though on some cases not even experiencing this weather, on they come with the misery. Weather forecasting is forecasting the weather, that is the main function.

 

Nice kidney shaped Azores High for this day next week, thanks to the storm, won't of course be like that given a week away. Just to show the potential of this storm to interact in some way. I wonder if it has some significance on the mean pressure as even if the low is surrounded by high pressure, it will in some way reduce the overall mean, hence reducing the apparent meaning of anomalies over a given special area such as north Atlantic.

Mareograms show nicely the heavy rain for tomorrow, picked Dublin in this case. Into next week the rain reduces, slight increase in temps as the week ends are indicated, winds keen enough probably from NW around the high. 

[Scott Ingham]

15 minutes ago, Downburst said:

If I might add, there is one or two on here that are clearly purposefully and irrationally emotive. I am not a phycologist, but I believe the intent is to project their own misery for some reason on the internet. The weather is top class fodder for these types and even though on some cases not even experiencing this weather, on they come with the misery. Weather forecasting is forecasting the weather, that is the main function.

I think psychologically people fall in love with weather models because they believe absolutely anything is possible forecast wise and the thought that science has come along this far to allow us to forecast a lot further into the future scares them.

The certainty scares them and takes away the fun.

But weather is a science and must be studied scientifically taking emotion out of the equation altogether

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I think psychologically people fall in love with weather models because they believe absolutely anything is possible forecast wise and the thought that science has come along this far to allow us to forecast a lot further into the future scares them.

The certainty scares them and takes away the fun.

But weather is a science and must be studied scientifically taking emotion out of the equation altogether

I agree with that, Scott. But I must confess, that whenever 'experts' tell me I'll wake up to a million feet of snow, only to get NOTHING, my emotions can still take over!