Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[Mark wheeler]

Lots of very informative posts today, thanks all, no charts from me today but it does feel like we are approaching a cross roads.  A very interesting period upcoming. Weather is never boring, well apart from uncle B.:::::.

[summer blizzard]

51 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Think Matt summarised it very well this morning in the sense that the AAM has now bottomed out and now should be on the rise.  Also the next downwelling kelvin wave will change the course of our weather.   

If the AAM forecast is correct with the surge in relative AAM then that suggests an improving picture peaking in the first week of August. 

Of course there's a dollop of caveat there.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Absolutely @summer blizzardand everything needs to remain consistent now.  Often these things can have lags to them too which delays things sotus speak.    

[Don]

1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Its amazing that we have the jet right over us currently, yet the CET for this month is 0.4 above the 61-90 average and 0.3 above the 81-10 average.   

Mainly a result of the warm/hottish weekend.  However, it takes a lot more to achieve below average these days!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

All weather systems require certain amounts of energy to keep themselves sustained. Our cut off low is fading in terms of energy ATM but to correctly link to the evolution through phases 5-8 which I've been covering there needs to be further lows developing within the same pathway, so how does that happen? 

Through the next 2 days or so we are at the beginning of the transitional period of the patterns connected to phases 5>8, tbh there are lots of similar features but definitely some key nuances

Showing the most important focal areas. 

The dual high pressure energies will become a singular elongated high around California extending both east and particularly west into the Pacific which shows the atmosphere definitely transitioning within these phases which I'll show in a sec. For our cut off low to get a reboost of energy itl come from 2 distinct zones combining. An area of energy close to Iceland gets drawn into the trough and at the same time a big part of the energy within a low currently with a 30% chance of containing tropical characteristics though part of this low percentage is with a big chuck of its energy moving into our renewing low 

 

I've also marked the persistent low spinning away through parts of Canada this will be causing a massive cold anomaly with a big bullseye across the Dakotas I certainly won't be shocked seeing record low temps from this which slides toward the great lakes during week 2

Our newly energized cut off low + trough will be at near record intensity for this point of July 

The complete evolution and a tropical system in the EPAC 

 

The evolution through phases 5-8 

 

 

CFS weeks 1 > 2 

Still seeing signals for the atmosphere properly getting into a Ninò resemblance with the  outputs on the GFS & GEM

Phases 5 + 6 Ninò  

Certainly a time providing lots of interests

[terrier]

Well the gfs this morning isn’t great once again. A few usable days early next week before more low pressure systems come barrelling into the U.K. once more. Definitely no real signs of things settling down just yet. 

[clark3r]

We’ll outlook is still poor, have to be hoping for a good august now, still time for a change in last week of July I suppose but not hopeful.

[ANYWEATHER]

More green snot not just for this weekend but for next as well ! 

[Guest]

Well it was one step forward with GFS yesterday however it’s about 9 back this morning. Any trying to make it look or sound pretty this morning needs some counselling. 
 

Both 850s and SLP views of the ensembles are awful. 
 

[terrier]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well it was one step forward with GFS yesterday however it’s about 9 back this morning. Any trying to make it look or sound pretty this morning needs some counselling. 
 

Both 850s and SLP views of the ensembles are awful. 
 

Yeah those are awful. Think we can safely write off July now. Let’s hope for something better as we move forward into August. Looks like cancelling my stay cation on the 24th of July now was a good call. 

[Nick2373]

 

00z Brings pretty much the same synoptics going forward, A raise in temps to just average from the 19th to the 21st then back down to below then back up 23rd for one day. Looks like surges of warm air pushing up South Westley then swing back to NNW West winds, showers built into this no real sign of warmth yet.  

[bluearmy]

Whilst we struggle to lose the current pattern, the med is going to frazzle next week as a heat dome establishing this week remains broadly in situ without any pattern changes to move it on. 

[mushymanrob]

6 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

The evolution through phases 5-8 

 

 

CFS weeks 1 > 2 

Still seeing signals for the atmosphere properly getting into a Ninò resemblance with the  outputs on the GFS & GEM

Phases 5 + 6 Ninò  

Certainly a time providing lots of interests

Sorry old chap...i still dont "get" it... its July 12th and you are posting composite charts for JUNE ..... And the MJO HASNT phased through 5-8....

I just dot get it at all.. explain please... somebody?

 

[JayAlmeida]

Models have had a bedroom accident overnight but the only thing that's certain at day 10 is uncertainty. The reliable looks better than what is coming up over the next 5 days.

More runs needed as you lot say

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst we struggle to lose the current pattern, the med is going to frazzle next week as a heat dome establishing this week remains broadly in situ without any pattern changes to move it on. 

And with a heat dome in situ like that the pattern will unlikely budge and in turn keep the trough locked in over the uk.
 

I’m frazzling in Morocco but I’m going to be freezing in Devon in a couple weeks.  

[LRD]

43 minutes ago, terrier said:

Yeah those are awful. Think we can safely write off July now. Let’s hope for something better as we move forward into August. Looks like cancelling my stay cation on the 24th of July now was a good call. 

Thanks, don't think you've ever made this point that before

Well, what can you say about this morning's runs? Pretty grim. What a stark contrast to last July. The ECM offered some hope yesterday but, as expected, it's reverted to utter dross

As for the med heat - they can keep it. Our weather looks crap but there is a happy medium between that and the heat over the med

Edited July 12, 2023 by LRD

[Guest]

Ukmo clearly the pick of the bunch this morning but it’s something of a loner with the extent of its ridging and looks overly optimistic. 
 

[LRD]

Day 3 at the cricket

GFS

ECM

GEM

And day 4 might not be much better

Not a huge golf fan but The Open's weather looks wretched too

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Ukmo clearly the pick of the bunch this morning but it’s something of a loner with the extent of its ridging and looks overly optimistic. 
 

Yes and even then the ridge looks flimsy and ready to be swept aside by a rather weak looking low just SW of Iceland

[Guest]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

Day 3 at the cricket

GFS

ECM

GEM

And day 4 might not be much better

Not a huge golf fan but The Open's weather looks wretched too

Not only are millions of staycation plans under treat so are several major sporting events. The weather looks a disaster for the Ashes.

[ANYWEATHER]

15 minutes ago, LRD said:

Thanks, don't think you've ever made this point that before

Well, what can you say about this morning's runs? Pretty grim. What a stark contrast to last July. The ECM offered some hope yesterday but, as expected, it's reverted to utter dross

As for the med heat - they can keep it. Our weather looks crap but there is a happy medium between that and the heat over the med

Ecm has a very bad performance lately,  gfs has mainly led the way!

[Scorcher]

20 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not only are millions of staycation plans under treat so are several major sporting events. The weather looks a disaster for the Ashes.

Yes unless something changes it looks terrible for the cricket. As I said before, if you had that sort of setup in the SE there would be a good chance of limited interruptions. With the test being in the west we could lose whole days.

That said, we will have to see closer to the time what conditions we get at the surface. This week is not a total washout here despite the charts looking grim on the face of it.

It's certainly not going to be pleasant for the players and spectators though and you'd imagine jumpers will be the order of the day at the peak of summer.

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Yes unless something changes it looks terrible for the cricket. As I said before, if you had that sort of setup in the SE there would be a good chance of limited interruptions. With the test being in the west we could lose whole days.

That said, we will have to see closer to the time what conditions we get at the surface. This week is not a total washout here despite the charts looking grim on the face of it.

It's certainly not going to be pleasant for the players and spectators though and you'd imagine jumpers will be the order of the day at the peak of summer.

With the amount of time that could potentially be lost due to the weather, England will have to play Bazball on steroids to move the game forward quickly

But, as you say, it could still change and, even if it doesn't, still not result in a washout despite grim looking charts. The very worst looking charts are over 7 days away. Day 1 and, possibly even Day 2, look ok at this stage unless I'm reading things wrong

Edited July 12, 2023 by LRD

[Phil Blake]

Well I don't think July has been too bad so far. Yes we've had alot of showers but there's still been plenty useable weather and it hasn't exactly been cold in the north east at least. Hit 20c most days and forecasted to hit 19-20c most days coming up which is around average. I am looking for some nice summery weather last week in July for my holiday to sunny Scarborough so fingers crossed.

Models do look unsettled but I think it'll be a more continuation of what we've had with sunny spells and showers. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, clark3r said:

We’ll outlook is still poor, have to be hoping for a good august now, still time for a change in last week of July I suppose but not hopeful.

As James peacock suggested on twitter we do need to hold in there but the tropical response has delayed things.  

[danm]

Yep no doubt both the GFS and ECM have taken a step back again this morning for later next week. If they’re anything to go by we will get a few pleasant days before another trough descends upon the UK towards next weekend. Still a while off though so let’s see how things play out. 

The UKMO is the most robust with the high by Wednesday. Let’s hope it’s leading the way. 

There is a downward trend in the SLP mean from the ECM towards late next week, but just to note that the ECM Op was one of the worst members (although the control follows it too):

Edited July 12, 2023 by danm