Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Modelling to day 10 essentially gives a choice between low pressure or an Atlantic High. It does not look like we will see meaningul warmth until at least the final week of July.

Think it is fair to say @summer blizzardthat the models have had a war of attrition lately and have struggled big time. 

We do need to look at when the next downwelling kelvin wave takes effect and all of that. 

It seems also that the met office update as well will be skewed judging by how ECM is after this inclement weekend coming up.   

[Mark wheeler]

Maybe a little tease at the end of the ECM 12 z run.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

According to this an azores ridge is developing and heights towards Greenland are dropping, hope this keeps up on the 00Z ECM tomorrow as the 12Z tonight looks quite pleasing and we should by the looks of it have less rain too.  The only question mark will be the temperatures next week and where the winds will be imported from?  

Edited July 12, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Supposedly a mean trough is progged on the NOAA CPC site for 8-14 days time but with average confidence rating of 3 out of 5.  So the models are in a real no man's land here methinks.   

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Man With Beard]

28 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Maybe a little tease at the end of the ECM 12 z run.

Nice to see but I'd prefer to see the same movement towards this pattern on the ECM ensembles - a couple of days ago this kind of outcome looked promising, but over the last 36 hours this has been a 30% option in the ECM ensembles at best.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Just checked the GFS 12Z operational at 384 hours ahead and looks like we are back to our default summer pattern of Atlantic trough and downstream ridge.  As far as I'm concerned now it's all sorts of possibilities that could happen now.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

 

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Nice to see but I'd prefer to see the same movement towards this pattern on the ECM ensembles - a couple of days ago this kind of outcome looked promising, but over the last 36 hours this has been a 30% option in the ECM ensembles at best.

Eps mean brings the higher heights and slp further east by day 10 and the expected retraction west that follows looks a little less convincing. Cluster time !! 

[Dangerous55019]

Hello everyone. 

I haven't done this for a while, so lets have a look at what the CFS v2 charts are showing for the next four weeks...


Week 1 - 12th to the 18th July: Low pressure seems to be centered pretty much over the top of us here in the UK! I'd say expect showers or longer spells of rain, possibly even quite windy at times! No named storms... But certainly blustery at times. But its July, so it should feel pleasant enough in the sunshine. 

Week 2 - 19th to the 25th July: The low pressure is now centered more over Scandinavia, but we still look to be under the influence of it here in the UK, again a risk of showers, but after such a dry May and June, I'd say that any rainfall is going to be welcome by farmers, gardeners and water companies alike!  This could also put us in a northerly or north easterly airflow... But again, it should feel pleasant enough in the sunshine. 

Week 3 - 26th July to the 1st August: The low pressure that is hanging around Scandinavia appears to be heading back towards us here in the UK! Quite possibly a rinse and repeat of week 2.

Week 4 - 2nd to the 8th of August: Well we're now into the final month of meteorological summer, and although the signal that these long range models pick up on is weaker, there is trough of low pressure  more or less over us, here in the UK! So more showers and longer spells of rain are possible. But also the high pressure appears to have set up camp over Greenland and the North Pole! 


So there you go folks! Make of that what you will! I realise that's probably not what many of you want to read, but I can only say what the models are showing.
As ever this is the CFSv2, and it does change daily, if I get chance before the end of the week, I may pop on here Friday and what, if anything has changed. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

NAO going weakly positive after this negative lull we are in currently.  

 

I wouldn't put any faith in the CFS V2 weekly charts or the ECM weeklies as they often are subject to change.  The hovmoller plots are in my books more accurate.    

[jamesthemonkeh]

1 minute ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

I wouldn't put any faith in the CFS V2 weekly charts or the ECM weeklies as they often are subject to change.  The hovmoller plots are in my books more accurate.    

How do you access them?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Often things on CFS V2 @jamesthemonkehchange on a daily basis, the hovmoller plots can change too and changes of wind can alter the course of everything.    

Edited July 12, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Surprisingly the ECM 12Z backs the azores high at 240 hours ahead.  Maybe the cards are starting to turn, but it will have to be a trend as from now on.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

 

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters D11-D15 provide no clear way forward (a relief it isn't worse!)

Cluster 1 seems to follow the op after D10, with average to slightly above average heights - which at this time of the year should lead to something fairly warm. 40% of members in this cluster.

Cluster 2 is the non-summer cluster, with trough after trough over the UK

Cluster 3 is slightly smaller in number but interesting as it hints at leaving part of the trough to the SW, with weak heights building to the south - which maybe just maybe would result in us flirting with a plume?

Given such a range of options, best wait for the next run

 

[danm]

Been out this eve so only just checked the ECM and it looks a fairly good’un. 
 

 

 

According to the ECM SLP ensemble mean, it’s pushing 1020mb again next week for London, and the latter stages of the Op, although higher than the mean, was by no means an outlier:

 

 

Is anyone else having trouble accessing the 156 and 168hr UKMO charts? 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Yes @danm it is a blank screen, but i checked the other bit of the jigsaw in regards to the met office at a higher resolution and actually it indicated to me a not too bad a day on Tuesday as the below link I will post.  

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

The GEM 12Z are now indicating an azores high at 240 hours just like the ECM although not as robust as the ECM 12Z.  Maybe the models are starting to latch on the predicted AAM rise.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

 

[danm]

2 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

The GEM 12Z are now indicating an azores high at 240 hours just like the ECM although not as robust as the ECM 12Z.  Maybe the models are starting to latch on the predicted AAM rise.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

 

Yep not a bad GEM at all. Let’s hope the models are picking up on something. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Really starting to take advice from @Tamaraon this @danmin the sense to be proactive and look at other variables but adding the NWP output as well.  Another thing we need to get rid of is the easterly trades on the 850 hpa zonal winds and maybe that will also help with the NWP output too.   

[Man With Beard]

22 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Really starting to take advice from @Tamaraon this @danmin the sense to be proactive and look at other variables but adding the NWP output as well.  Another thing we need to get rid of is the easterly trades on the 850 hpa zonal winds and maybe that will also help with the NWP output too.   

As much as I enjoy reading Tamara's posts, I cannot ignore the fact that the LRFs have and will be wrong for the first 20 days of July, and that ECM ensembles D6-D15 have been a good guide since their upgrade. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

The winds @Man With Beardchange on a daily basis so that can affect the NWP. 

When i checked the site by mike ventrice earlier I found it very disappointing that there was that hovmollers feature I mentioned in a previous post about easterly zonal winds going through the dateline.  

Two things I think we need now going forward are a more active MJO and the next developing CCKW I have mentioned as those two will change the course of the NWP.   

[Guest]

This really is quite a chart for high summer:

The 18z GFS keeps the changeable theme going throughout.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Guest

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Just now, Tidal Wave said:

This really is quite a chart for high summer:

The 18z GFS keeps the changeable theme going throughout.

Yes not very nice really, however we will have to wait and see if the mean and control back it or not.  

[Mark wheeler]

16 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

This really is quite a chart for high summer:

The 18z GFS keeps the changeable theme going throughout.

Oh, thank almighty it is the 18z : 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

At the end of the run though @Mark wheelerthe Greenland heights drop, but we still have a changeable westerly regime.   Also have a fair idea when the next CCKW is going to happen through the site owned by mike ventrice and its predicted to be very soon.   

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Just checked the GEFS 18Z ensemble mean and it indicates the high pressure a bit more northwards, shows that the op was all by itself then as the control followed the mean pretty much.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&mode=0&code=31&ext=0