The Heat Haters Club 2023

[Frostillicus]

5 minutes ago, stodge said:

It looks as though our luck will run out at the end of next week as an area of HP finally gets in between the LP areas and intensifies as it moves east drawing up much warmer air from the south.

GEM has the +20 850 crossing southern England briefly - others keep it just over the Channel but either way it will get warmer. 

Currently GFS are showing temperatures of 27-28c across London and the south east on the 12th and 13th - other models suggest higher temperatures on the 11th and easing off thereafter.

It doesn't look like a long-duration hot spell but more akin to a "hot snap" of 24-36 hours before LP returns from the west.

A lot of detail to be confirmed but it's something of which we should be aware and for which we should be prepared. 

If it was merely settled weather, then nobody could begrudge it. But it's always the same behaviour from the models whenever high pressure is picked up. The high migrates east and allows a low to pump filth up from Europe. It's going from one extreme to another. 

[SollyOlly]

Thanks Stodge. As I mentioned in a previous post, I have been preparing myself for something like this...the July we had couldn't keep going forever...so I'll "try to be brave", ha ha! Oddly enough the more average/ cooler spell in July has also had the effect of acclimatising me to normal temperatures, so the forthcoming heat might be a challenge, both objectively and subjectively. But hopefully relatively short-lived, and I do still recall the hell of last year, so hopefully not as bad as that. 

Appreciate your insights here, thank you.

[CharlieBear9]

I'm on holiday next week, what rotten luck.

[S Bragg]

Well, look on the bright side - it's August, which means shorter days, and the Sun won't be as high in the sky so it might not feel quite as bad in direct sunlight as earlier in the summer.  But it's not ideal whichever way you look at it.

 

Fingers crossed it's only a brief heatwave.

[Hirudine]

Every time I have a club night to go to this summer, the temperature perks up to 30 degrees. Gah!

[The PIT]

4 hours ago, S Bragg said:

Well, look on the bright side - it's August, which means shorter days, and the Sun won't be as high in the sky so it might not feel quite as bad in direct sunlight as earlier in the summer.  But it's not ideal whichever way you look at it.

 

Fingers crossed it's only a brief heatwave.

However against that warmer seas mean higher temps so you may be adding 20C onto the upper air temps. Then other thing GFS is also showing a showery picture which may cap the temperaters.  A slight change in the wind draw could make better or worse.

Tghis hot spell was shown a long while back on the GFS then disappeared to only return again.  

[simshady]

Today is my kind of day. Fresh and cool. 

Edited August 5, 2023 by simshady

[Guest]

An amazing day today.

My factual post about the 06z GFS didn't go down well in the model thread. I guess it's hard for them when any heat potential is reduced. They need to toughen up and stop being so sensitive because the chances are its us heat haters who are going to suffer in the years to come. We won't be this fortunate again for a long time I fear. So too right I am going to relish this year.

[KTtom]

2 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

An amazing day today.

My factual post about the 06z GFS didn't go down well in the model thread. I guess it's hard for them when any heat potential is reduced. They need to toughen up and stop being so sensitive because the chances are its us heat haters who are going to suffer in the years to come. We won't be this fortunate again for a long time I fear. So too right I am going to relish this year.

Tut! You should be ashamed of yourself posting a GFS chart in the Model discussion thread... and at such timelines ... wind up merchant

[Schnee]

1 hour ago, Tidal Wave said:

An amazing day today.

My factual post about the 06z GFS didn't go down well in the model thread. I guess it's hard for them when any heat potential is reduced. They need to toughen up and stop being so sensitive because the chances are its us heat haters who are going to suffer in the years to come. We won't be this fortunate again for a long time I fear. So too right I am going to relish this year.

Stock up on cheaper a/c units! All too many forget that Summer is an annual thing and sell them off cheap when they're not needed....

[mike57]

3 minutes ago, Schnee said:

Stock up on cheaper a/c units! All too many forget that Summer is an annual thing and sell them off cheap when they're not needed....

It's funny me and SWMBO were discussing this a couple of days ago. Both being heat haters we are investigating whats available. My suggestion is we just air condition our bedroom, reasoning being it catches the sun from about 4pm onwards, right up until sunset, as we are not overlooked. That makes it difficult to cool for sleeping. It alsi gives us one cool refuge. Not sure what our options are, I am comfortable with major DIY jobs, so thinking of a fixed installation rather than a portable unit. Room needs redecorating anyway hence thinking about it. What are noise levels like if it has to run all night? With in reason running cost is less of an issue, being able to stick two fingers up at summers like last year is more important. Any one else with any experiences?

[Schnee]

Yeah, i'd just do the bedroom. It makes alot of difference being able to get a good sleep in hot conditions. Perhaps the living room too if heat conditions become regular every year.

You won't be able to sleep with it on all night, if it's a portable. I used earplugs during that spell last year where I left it on at 24C for a solid 4 days (cost £5/day on 17p/KWh, with solar helping in daylight). It's the cooling version of the past where one room was heated in the depths of winter.

Fitted units need to be done properly, there's technical stuff invovled and future questions as to the heating side. Fitted units are usually air based heat pumps and considerations to replace a conventional wet heat system with an air based system need to be looked at too.

[Eugene]

It's hilarious how the warmies are scratching their heads how such a cold day in early August is possible with a warm Atlantic, ummm maybe for inland areas they don't affect 2M temps as much as you'd hope, it's air mass origin and cloud cover/precipitation that is a lot more important.

Today has widely seen near local August record max's for many places, around 10C below average.

[markyo]

5 hours ago, mike57 said:

It's funny me and SWMBO were discussing this a couple of days ago. Both being heat haters we are investigating whats available. My suggestion is we just air condition our bedroom, reasoning being it catches the sun from about 4pm onwards, right up until sunset, as we are not overlooked. That makes it difficult to cool for sleeping. It alsi gives us one cool refuge. Not sure what our options are, I am comfortable with major DIY jobs, so thinking of a fixed installation rather than a portable unit. Room needs redecorating anyway hence thinking about it. What are noise levels like if it has to run all night? With in reason running cost is less of an issue, being able to stick two fingers up at summers like last year is more important. Any one else with any experiences?

I  find noise levels on my 12BTU are fine, its a constant rhythmic noise so once your tuned in to it sleep is no issue. It makes a massive difference to the temp in a bedroom. Costly to run but worth it on the hot days.

[Guest]

A good ECMWF 12z run. Good consensus on any heat being short-lived

[lassie23]

7 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

A good ECMWF 12z run. Good consensus on any heat being short-lived

Good

[Stationary Front]

Had the heating on today, not sure I’ve done that in August before. I usually wait until well into September. Heat alert for me, lasts until around Sept 21st

[S Bragg]

I'm never posting in the model thread again.  Heat-rampers the lot of 'em.

[Frigid]

44 minutes ago, S Bragg said:

I'm never posting in the model thread again.  Heat-rampers the lot of 'em.

Same story in winter.. a warm lover posts a Bartlett high and gets absolutely lambasted.

I've got no interest in model output during Summer unless it's something like a long period of cool weather or thunderstorms. Can't wait till we get those blocking high charts in winter, can't come any sooner cause frankly it's a snoozefest atm. 

Edited August 6, 2023 by Frigid

[Frostillicus]

3 hours ago, S Bragg said:

I'm never posting in the model thread again.  Heat-rampers the lot of 'em.

The MAD thread has always been mob rule. Go against the hive mind and you'll hear about it. Main reason old knocker jumped ship.

I suppose these pariah threads were born out of that

[G4WFT2]

7 hours ago, S Bragg said:

I'm never posting in the model thread again.  Heat-rampers the lot of 'em.

I've looked at the model output discussion thread a lot but given up now as it seems it's essentially a bunch of people trying to find signs that a hot plume is coming and interpreting the model outputs to suit their own bias.  My bias is for nice, cool bright days.  If it never goes above 21 degrees C I'm happy!

[simshady]

7 hours ago, S Bragg said:

I'm never posting in the model thread again.  Heat-rampers the lot of 'em.

There are a lot of bitter heat lovers on here. If you post anything they don't like on there they jump on you. It's cool at the moment, they don't like it. They need to just 'get over it'

[markyo]

Now looking fairly certain that this hot spell will be a blip, nothing more. By then mid August, yes still time for some uncomfortable weather but we are by then in the realms shorter days and UV index lower. Not long now to the good times! Just around the corner is Autumn!

[SakuraOwl]

Update: Well, it looks like the humidity levels have climbed upwards again... Not that they ever went down much in the first place (xD)
Anyway... The sunlight was welcome. The sun then combined with the higher humidity levels today have made me tired & miserable...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, SakuraOwl said:

Update: Well, it looks like the humidity levels have climbed upwards again... Not that they ever went down much in the first place (xD)
Anyway... The sunlight was welcome. The sun then combined with the higher humidity levels today have made me tired & miserable...

where are you reporting from????????