The Heat Haters Club 2023

[Chris J]

Ugh, looks like a long-ish period of absolute misery. Not really bothered what month the calendar shows, 25c and high humidity is still 25c and high humidity, i'm not getting the placebo effect of being closer to Autumn.

Not much relief overnight either with no breeze, 16c later next week for overnight low's is still warm.

I reckon mid 30's in the office easily by the end of next week.

We've jinxed our luck and the run of comfortable weather, by rejoicing and calling time on hot weather about six weeks too early!.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Chris J

[The PIT]

GFS despite 16C uppers only has at 21C for Wednesday. The only way that can happen if we are covered by north sea cloud and to be fair it does show cloud modelled in. Local forecast has clear skies.  Time will tell. The really warm uppers get away nicely still very warm though. However GFS has been the cooler of the runs. UKMO goes for lets bake T120 and T144 and the real cooker ecm isn't out yet.

Since it's an easterly flow hot spots should be in the western areas depending on how strong it is.

Just checked the UKMO hi res run and that keeps the high uppers over S much longer.  So at the moment GFS is our friend. Sadly it's the third best model generally.

 

Edited August 31, 2023 by The PIT

[Penguin16]

Awful runs so far this evening. Depressing 

[Frostillicus]

ECM throwing up 20c overnight lows. Clearly those saying September tempers the heat may need to reconsider. 

[SollyOlly]

Looks utterly awful. What a terrible outlook. As I mentioned earlier, at least the house is starting off cool; but on the other hand, after a reasonable summer, I'm now totally un-acclimatised to these bonkers heat runs. Hopefully it won't last too long...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Frostillicus said:

ECM throwing up 20c overnight lows. Clearly those saying September tempers the heat may need to reconsider. 

Aye, agree, the right setup will see mid 30's, and 20 minimums, hot southerly air

it's early Sept, in 2011 some areas had 30 degrees on 1st/2nd Oct

[Guest]

I'm with @CreweCold, I am not concerned. Its September, sunset is at 7.30pm, it simply will not have the same impact as it would have done 2 months ago. I get that some will still find it uncomfortable but just be thankful its not happening earlier in the summer.

[Chris J]

The Met Office forecast shows 3 days (Mon - Wed) of completely unbroken sun here between 7AM and 7PM each day, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if that doesn't eventually extend further into the weekend and following week. That is 12 hours of non stop unbroken solar heating, so I can confidently predict if that comes off for me its going to be high 20's by Evening upstairs, which with mid - high teens, high humidity and 3 mph of wind overnight, is going to make early September just as sleep deprived as any similar period in say, Mid July.

This could very easily end up being the worst period of the Summer

Edited August 31, 2023 by Chris J

[Frostillicus]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, agree, the right setup will see mid 30's, and 20 minimums, hot southerly air

it's early Sept, in 2011 some areas had 30 degrees on 1st/2nd Oct

Was a 26c high with a 20c minima. That to me suggests the heat will be in the air, and not just the sun. Nothing good comes from southerly air.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 hours ago, Frostillicus said:

ECM throwing up 20c overnight lows. Clearly those saying September tempers the heat may need to reconsider. 

Whereas in summer the modelling may underestimate temperatures, come September they’re more likely to overestimate them.

The only place that may see 20c as an overnight minimum will be the London area. You can quote me on that one too.

Even in the crazy July 2022 spell we dipped just under 20c here overnight.

Edited August 31, 2023 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

57 minutes ago, Chris J said:

The Met Office forecast shows 3 days (Mon - Wed) of completely unbroken sun here between 7AM and 7PM each day, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if that doesn't eventually extend further into the weekend and following week. That is 12 hours of non stop unbroken solar heating, so I can confidently predict if that comes off for me its going to be high 20's by Evening upstairs, which with mid - high teens, high humidity and 3 mph of wind overnight, is going to make early September just as sleep deprived as any similar period in say, Mid July.

This could very easily end up being the worst period of the Summer

The altitude of the sun will be around 42 degrees, compared to 60 degrees in early July.

To put that into some sort of perspective, you’d probably need 30 hours of none stop peak daytime heating to get anywhere near the level of what you’d get from a wall to wall sunny day in early July.

Heating of your house will be significantly reduced.

Edited August 31, 2023 by CreweCold

[lassie23]

I am not concerned either about the possible September heat. It won't feel anything like June did thank flog.

[The PIT]

For those who say we can't get high temperatures in September. Sheffield nearly go to 33C.

 

At the moment GFS is our friend still and keeps 20C away from us while UKMO still brings it across us as does the ECM.

[Chris J]

Yep, as predicted last night, I get another 12 hour day of unbroken sun from Dawn to Dusk on Thursday. Utterly abysmal weather, this is shaping up to become another June in this part of the Country, with weeks of Blue Skies and Sun but without the breeze and a good few degrees hotter by both day and night.

16c - 17c in Shetland for the majority of next week........I wish.

Edited September 1, 2023 by Chris J

[The PIT]

GFS and UKMO getting closer in its thoughts so slightly less hot from the UKMO point of view. Going to to be interesting if our record of 28.8C stays intact or not. The bigger one is 32.8C in 1906 which I think will survive. Exceptionally warm  Wednesday and Thursday night with a low of 20C for us. Thankfully the slowly introduces almost perfect weather by Saturday with 22C to 24C for us. I noticed the forecasters now slipping the the odd 32C into the forecast.

I'll probably running my air con unit at least that will drown out the neighbours hifi blasting out which happens as soon as the sun comes out these days.

Edited September 1, 2023 by The PIT

[S Bragg]

Well isn't that typical - just as we cross into September the weather is set to warm up again.  I know warmth isn't unusual for September but I was sincerely hoping we could put the threat of heat behind us now.  Roll on October I guess.

[The PIT]

You can still get heat in October luckily so far it's only happened once and for one day.

[Dami]

well here we are in September, and it looks like summer hasn't thrown in the towel.... yet

 mind you i have missed the plumes this year and the radar watching, although i have had *some* storms. didn't really have a real hum dinger.

maybe it will snow again in December.

Edited September 1, 2023 by Dami

[The PIT]

ECM cooler than previous runs so moving in the right direction.

[legion_quest]

The feels like temps arent a nice look, especially Wed into Thurs night with dew points around 20c in places.

The sun may have a little less umph, but those are some warm set ups for humidity generated heat.

[The PIT]

UKMO our friend with lower uppers still hot but less chance of silly temps

[Frigid]

Had a check at the latest GFS run, it's not pretty at all. Has us at 5 days of 26+ which would only translate to 28/29.. what a horror show. Would've never expected it beat the spell in Sep 21. 

This is where the GFS was heading shown 6 days ago. A cool start to September.

Where it is now..

I'm hoping the second half is the coldest on record, or something similar to 2015/2022. 

 

[The PIT]

The trend looking at the ECM is generally lower uppers still going to be unpleasant but not as bad as shown a few days ago

[SollyOlly]

Yep, for the first time since June really it looks as though we're going to be in for some prolonged serious discomfort. I'm still clinging on to hope that 'something' (not sure what!) might help keep the temperatures in the mid-20s rather than around 30c odd as some heat-lovers are claiming...but it's getting into range now and not many signs of hope. If it lasts a few days, I'll just have to grimace and wear it...let's hope that it breaks down pretty quickly though and doesn't go on and on, like some hot spells have in recent years.

[markyo]

A truly awful start to Autumn, sadly i'm working in the South most of next week, conditions look terrible, not looking forward to it at all. My mood has really darkened, the sooner we have seasonal weather and this vile crap has gone the better. Its going to be a long tough week, temps will be in the mid 40's in some of the sites i will be in.