Noctilucent Cloud Season 2023

[Jamie M]

45 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

 Frustrating beyond belief

Over the years sometimes when we have seen massive signals on Marrsy there have been NLC`s seen over Europe.

More often than not the same explosion of signals have revealed nothing 

That`s why we or nobody else has never been able to use the radar signals as a reliable forecasting tool

Give me a daisy anyday

where are the signals on Oswin radar?

Aye it's just luck whether they amount to anything whilst on DAISY you could properly see the clouds forming and where they were

There's a neat PDF I've found here on the website I linked earlier that has got OSWIN echoes linked with NLC sightings

http://www.leuchtende-nachtwolken.info/oswin.pdf

[Arnie Pie]

Something interesting from the German NLC forum you pasted earlier @Jamie M

Hello everyone,

since the NLC season 2023 is likely to start in the near future, I am opening the usual permanent thread today, in which the current situation at OSWIN and other plots can be discussed. This is how we've avoided developing countless threads titled "NLC's Coming Night?" for a number of years.

MAARSY, the mesosphere radar in Andenes (69°N), is currently receiving vast amounts of echoes from the altitude layer 55 - 90 km (i.e. from the entire mesosphere), with the focus being between 65 and 80 km:https://www.iap-kborn.de/forschung/abte ... sosphaere/(each available for the last 48 hours). These are not NLCs or PMSEs, but PMWEs (polar mesospheric winter echoes). These echoes, which do not appear to have a visually perceptible counterpart, occur not only in winter, contrary to their name, but throughout the period from September to April/May and occasionally also during the summer NLC season. For more information on the PMWEs, which are the subject of current research, please refer to the IAP website:https://www.iap-kborn.de/forschung/abte ... nkte/pmwe/.

On the "daisies" of the AIM satellite (http://lasp.colorado.edu/aim/cips/data/ ... _daisy.png) we will have to do without in the future (s.https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/2023/03/ ... l-support/). The plot of the mesosphere radar OSWIN in Kuehlungsborn (https://www.iap-kborn.de/forschung/abte ... sosphaere/) has been hanging since March, but experience has shown that it will provide current data again at the beginning of the season. The Welsh MST Radar (http://www.mstrf.eclipse.co.uk/ncas-cda ... s_m300.png) draws reliably, but has not received any echoes so far. The plots of the Aura satellite regarding the state of the mesosphere show that there are currently insufficient conditions for the formation of NLCs: https://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/~hcp/meso_ts/(UK) as wellhttps://alomar.andoyaspace.no/rmrlidar/ ... index.html(Alomar and Kuehlungsborn).

Underhttp://www.leuchtende-nachtwolken.info/vorhersage.htmyou will find information about the above-mentioned and other plots as well as the associated prediction options for NLCs.

Greetings from Oberursel,

Stefan

edit No mentions of any sighting this season

Edited May 24, 2023 by Arnie Pie

[Jamie M]

Perfect clear skies and nothing

[Arnie Pie]

Same here Jamie

Edited May 24, 2023 by Arnie Pie

[Arnie Pie]

Nothing on the eurocams as yet but I'm up till the next nautical twilight (around 03.00) boiling a joint of bacon during cheap electricity time

Edited May 24, 2023 by Arnie Pie

[Arnie Pie]

Nothing tonight or seen on any cams.

last image taken towards the end of Nautical twilight just before some local cloud moved in

Capella at 10°

 

 

[Arnie Pie]

19 hours ago, Jamie M said:

Vorhersage des Auftretens Leuchtender Nachtwolken

WWW.LEUCHTENDE-NACHTWOLKEN.INFO

 

Excellent piece of work by Stefan Krause, straightforward and easy to understand information concerning the relationship between
radar signals and NLC`s

Stephan is also the author of of the German NLC forum where there is an uptodate sub forum on the same subject
'Current situation at OSWIN & Co. NLC season 2023'

links can be found on the previous page posted by @Jamie M

[Jamie M]

Nil once again outside

I see one of the other radars (ESRAD) is starting to show some weak echos too. 

[Rush2019]

Had a fantastic blood orange sunset earlier and have clear northern skies,  keeping watch just in case.

[mushymanrob]

we had our first sightings this time last year, it came up on my facebook memories... so anytime from now onwards... still seen nothing on the webcams though...

[mushymanrob]

Anybody looking out? Another clear night, might be worth it.. 

[Southern Storm]

20 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Anybody looking out? Another clear night, might be worth it.. 

I'm currently sat by my front window, keeping an eye out for surprises 

12th of June is my earliest sighting, so it might be a little early in the season for me, especially down south. 

Have you seen anything online that might give us some idea of tonights chances? 

[mushymanrob]

7 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

Have you seen anything online that might give us some idea of tonights chances? 

im scouring the webcams, but seen nothing.. a lot of clear skies over europe..

 

THIS...... very interesting.. sightings of NLCs..
http://www.leuchtende-nachtwolken.info/chronik.htm?fbclid=IwAR1g05mL_QtvmpM8tknxNTGt2Nel9PBiA3dOHp-TsDvbEoY_0w57IgjfjbU

[Arnie Pie]

Eyes on the sky Rob, most of the duration, Nowt yet

Edited May 26, 2023 by Arnie Pie

[Southern Storm]

6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

im scouring the webcams, but seen nothing.. a lot of clear skies over europe..

 

THIS...... very interesting.. sightings of NLCs..
http://www.leuchtende-nachtwolken.info/chronik.htm?fbclid=IwAR1g05mL_QtvmpM8tknxNTGt2Nel9PBiA3dOHp-TsDvbEoY_0w57IgjfjbU

Very interesting indeed! A great find but I'm struggling to understand it, as I can't seem to get Google to translate it, I'll give it a try on the pc at some point.

Hopefully we don't have to wait too much longer, I think we are still a little early in the season, but only just 

[Arnie Pie]

Nautical twilight starts just after 23.00  clear as a bell apart from the smut level

[Jamie M]

Crippling levels of high tropospheric cloud

[mushymanrob]

[mushymanrob]

Nah... im going back home, there might be something before dawn but theres nothing now. 

[Polar Maritime]

Nowt here..

[Arnie Pie]

European cams are quiet, European forums are quiet
The only thing that`s active is the Sun in it`s solar maximum
Not looking good for now

Edited May 26, 2023 by Arnie Pie

[Southern Storm]

Thought I had some NLCs but I think it's just cirrus clouds 

Highly processed

 

Edit.. definitely cirrus, the last one has a contrail going across the sky 

Edited May 27, 2023 by Southern Storm

[mushymanrob]

Ok..... MAARSY

We went out looking between 10.30 and just after 11 pm... roughly..... so using the MAARSY site which is, i make it, 4 hours in front of us.. at 2300 pm we are seeing what MAARSY detected at 1900 pm... which is next to nothing, in fact the general sky according to MAARSY had NO ingredients detected for NLCs, which fits with nothing being seen in Northwestern Europe...

I accept and understand that MAARSY detects the ingredients for NLCs, so doesnt detect NLCs per se, but IF theres no ingedients, then surely there no clouds... so by that logic although we cant detect / predict NLCs being visible, can we not detect/predict when they arent?....

[Jamie M]

More detection on SOUSY

5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Ok..... MAARSY

We went out looking between 10.30 and just after 11 pm... roughly..... so using the MAARSY site which is, i make it, 4 hours in front of us.. at 2300 pm we are seeing what MAARSY detected at 1900 pm... which is next to nothing, in fact the general sky according to MAARSY had NO ingredients detected for NLCs, which fits with nothing being seen in Northwestern Europe...

I accept and understand that MAARSY detects the ingredients for NLCs, so doesnt detect NLCs per se, but IF theres no ingedients, then surely there no clouds... so by that logic although we cant detect / predict NLCs being visible, can we not detect/predict when they arent?....

Think MAARSY is incredibly sensitive in how it detects these echoes hence why it can show deep red and have nada show up. It does seem easier to detect nothing than something as every radar being void of anything is a good indicator. Anyway away from my tangent, I'd be more likely to say nothing based off MAARSY having absolutely nothing due to its sensitive nature of detecting these radar echoes. 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Jamie M said:

More detection on SOUSY

Think MAARSY is incredibly sensitive in how it detects these echoes hence why it can show deep red and have nada show up. It does seem easier to detect nothing than something as every radar being void of anything is a good indicator. Anyway away from my tangent, I'd be more likely to say nothing based off MAARSY having absolutely nothing due to its sensitive nature of detecting these radar echoes. 

is SOUSY different? are they clouds or just ingredients?

all im doing is trying to find a more reliable prediction method now we have got AIM. we cant rely on webcams alone, too many are clouded out and not favourably sited for "tonights" forecast which is what im after..