Noctilucent Cloud Season 2023

[Jamie M]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

is SOUSY different? are they clouds or just ingredients?

all im doing is trying to find a more reliable prediction method now we have got AIM. we cant rely on webcams alone, too many are clouded out and not favourably sited for "tonights" forecast which is what im after..

 

SOUSY is a lower resolution than MAARSY and they both show radar echoes that can be associated with the clouds or not. MAARSY in my understanding is more likely to show any very small trace of echoes that could be associated with NLCs whilst that of SOUSY and the OSWIN radar are more likely to show solid and possibly stronger echoes first instead of the much weaker stuff that's seen on MAARSY if you get what I mean in that regards.

Believe those on the German forum tend to use the OSWIN radar echoes that happen before nightfall to try and forecast whether there could be NLCs or not

[Jamie M]

For e.g. on the 5th July last year:

Hello everyone,

OSWIN has been receiving partly strong echoes from the mesosphere since noon until shortly before 19:00 UT (21:00 CEST) (https://www.iap-kborn.de/fileadmin/user ... _4hour.png, expires), which dropped from initially 85 km to 82 km. In the afternoon NERC also responded for a short time (http://www.mstrf.eclipse.co.uk/ncas-cda ... s_m300.png, expires). The high-altitude winds changed direction several times during the course of the day (https://www.iap-kborn.de/fileadmin/user ... _vel24.png, expires) without this being able to be correlated with the course of the echoes.
The statistical odds (p.http://www.glühende-nachtwolken.info/ ... .htm#oswin) that at some point somewhere in the D/A/CH region NLCs can be sighted, at least with technical aids (binoculars, camera, webcam) are at least 80%, whereby bright and extended displays are possible, definitely already in the evening sector.


Greetings from Oberursel,

Stefan

[Metwatch]

Evening all, hope all the noctilucent cloud hunters are doing well!

Myself I haven't seen NLC's much due to them usually being seen early morning more than late evening in my case while I'm asleep, or the great British weather not in our favour.

I've only managed to capture them twice. (12th June 2022, 2:46 AM, first photo and 30th June 2020 22:57 PM second photo) Didn't manage to see anything during 2021, though I wasn't in the UK for quite a few weeks during July - August time. 

However as we now enter the NLC season, I hope to capture some this summer as I now have a new phone (Samsung S22) and can travel to different spots in my local area to see them, even during when most would consider stupid o'clock (early morning) 

Not an expert by any means in the detection and radars to observe them, but hopefully based on reports in the coming weeks in surrounding countries and here, I'll be able to see them soon after, thanks! 

 

[mushymanrob]

Nothing on Maarsy for 1900... nothing on any  webcam .. i dont think anything will be seen this evening.

[Jamie M]

LOVELYY

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Jamie M said:

LOVELYY

we need that spike at 1900 hours to be of any use to us... but its overcast anyway so we are likely to miss anything tonight.

[Jamie M]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

we need that spike at 1900 hours to be of any use to us... but its overcast anyway so we are likely to miss anything tonight.

Aye although it's convincing to see greater echoes starting to appear. Worth keeping an eye out anyway

[Arnie Pie]

Good looking signals from OSWIN ...  I think

I`m waiting for the boffins in Germany to view their opinions before getting overly excited 

https://forum.meteoros.de/viewtopic.php?f=34&t=61302

 

[Jamie M]

18 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Good looking signals from OSWIN ...  I think

I`m waiting for the boffins in Germany to view their opinions before getting overly excited 

https://forum.meteoros.de/viewtopic.php?f=34&t=61302

 

Looking through some of the stats here from Stefan's website (http://www.leuchtende-nachtwolken.info/vorhersage.htm from 2007 to 2022 out of 860 days

82% of NLC nights were preceded by MSEs (radar echoes we're seeing at OSWIN)

62% of visually detectable NLC nights were preceded by MSEs

16% of NLC nights were not preceded by MSEs

For late echoes:
NLCs were observed 76% of the time with late echoes registered at least until 18 UTC, 83% of the time with strong late echoes

Long echoes, lasting for 12 hours with interruptions for a maximum of 3 hours - a lack of data 63 days out of 860:

 NLCs were observed after 83% of the days with long echoes

NLCs were observed after 90% of the days with long and at the same time late or very late echoes (at least until 19 UTC)

Also all contained within this PDF altho harder to translate:

http://www.leuchtende-nachtwolken.info/oswin.pdf

 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Jamie M

[Jamie M]

In the most ideal scenario,

We want strong long-lasting echoes that continue until 20:00 BST or longer on OSWIN

That does fit @mushymanrob's theory on wanting the echoes over the radar's location at 1900 UTC somewhat.

Think we'd need the wind speed/direction higher up in the meso to try and figure out exactly how far these clouds are going in an hour or so to get something more precise 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Jamie M

[Jamie M]

https://www.iap-kborn.de/fileadmin/user_upload/MAIN-abteilung/radar/Radars/JuliusruhMF/Plots/jmf_fca_vel24.png

Managed to find zonal and meridional velocity.

Stefan mentions this on his website (http://www.leuchtende-nachtwolken.info/vorhersage.htm)

"Also from IAP is operated Juliusruh MF radar in the north of the island of Rügen. It leads Wind measurements in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Relevant on the linked side above is the plot at the bottom left, which shows wind direction and wind speed for the height profile of 60 to 100 km, separated for the last 24 hours according to zonal ( west-east ) and meridional component ( north-south ). If a strong south-facing wind ( green and blue color ) blows in the range between 80 and 90 km over a longer period of time, there is a chance, the particularly cold air masses are brought in from the north, which could produce an NLC-like location. So this is different from that OSWIN measurementsno direct proof of NLCs, but only an indication of favorable conditions in the Mesopause region. Are e.g. observed in one night on the Baltic Sea NLCs and the following day there is a permanent strong south current in the decisive altitude, this is an indicator, that NLCs can also be expected the following night, especially if OSWIN also displays MSEs.")

 

It looks like we might be able to work out at least the conditions here if they are conducive to form. Ideally, we'd want a positive meridional velocity and a negative zonal velocity for conducive NLC conditions for them to form. You can see this today with deep blue from 0600 to now between 80 & 90 km for zonal velocity although meridional velocity could be stronger. I presume we can use this along with MSES on OSWIN to try and see if there are conducive conditions for NLCs to possibly appear. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Jamie M

[mushymanrob]

13 hours ago, Jamie M said:

https://www.iap-kborn.de/fileadmin/user_upload/MAIN-abteilung/radar/Radars/JuliusruhMF/Plots/jmf_fca_vel24.png

Managed to find zonal and meridional velocity.

Stefan mentions this on his website (http://www.leuchtende-nachtwolken.info/vorhersage.htm)

"Also from IAP is operated Juliusruh MF radar in the north of the island of Rügen. It leads Wind measurements in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Relevant on the linked side above is the plot at the bottom left, which shows wind direction and wind speed for the height profile of 60 to 100 km, separated for the last 24 hours according to zonal ( west-east ) and meridional component ( north-south ). If a strong south-facing wind ( green and blue color ) blows in the range between 80 and 90 km over a longer period of time, there is a chance, the particularly cold air masses are brought in from the north, which could produce an NLC-like location. So this is different from that OSWIN measurementsno direct proof of NLCs, but only an indication of favorable conditions in the Mesopause region. Are e.g. observed in one night on the Baltic Sea NLCs and the following day there is a permanent strong south current in the decisive altitude, this is an indicator, that NLCs can also be expected the following night, especially if OSWIN also displays MSEs.")

 

It looks like we might be able to work out at least the conditions here if they are conducive to form. Ideally, we'd want a positive meridional velocity and a negative zonal velocity for conducive NLC conditions for them to form. You can see this today with deep blue from 0600 to now between 80 & 90 km for zonal velocity although meridional velocity could be stronger. I presume we can use this along with MSES on OSWIN to try and see if there are conducive conditions for NLCs to possibly appear. 

so deep blue and bright red ? then work out how far in front this station is, which i make is 13 degrees east, so 4 hours ahead of us... assuming the conditions hold ...

 

[Jamie M]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

so deep blue and bright red ? then work out how far in front this station is, which i make is 13 degrees east, so 4 hours ahead of us... assuming the conditions hold ...

 

Aye. Of course like you say, it's dependant on conditions holding. For precision, it's also whether the clouds form exactly at 13° east although that's just me being a perfectionist which is almost impossible on something like this . That's probably where the OSWIN echoes will come in handy to see if anything has formed and then you can go from there.

OSWIN had further weak echoes this morning although velocity doesn't look as best-suited as it could be 

[Jamie M]

That's also a bit more promising that NLC sightings are on the horizon at least soon - albeit off on a late start.

The Welsh radar which can be hard to pick up echoes at times has seen the first decent echoes so far this year. 

The fact that it is picking up echoes, as well as OSWIN around the same time, might indicate there is larger scale cooling of the mesopause which means NLC formation is more likely.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Jamie M said:

Aye. Of course like you say, it's dependant on conditions holding. For precision, it's also whether the clouds form exactly at 13° east although that's just me being a perfectionist which is almost impossible on something like this . That's probably where the OSWIN echoes will come in handy to see if anything has formed and then you can go from there.

OSWIN had further weak echoes this morning although velocity doesn't look as best-suited as it could be 

for me, if we can get a reliable indication of whether they are likely or not likely at all..thatll be a start. getting a precise prediction isnt something that can be done.. but it would help if we could at least determine nights when theres no/very little chance, it would save time and effort...

as things stand, without the aim, all we have are euro webcams which arent a very good predictive tool for us. i remember one day last year "flenburgs on fire" someone posted, (arnie?) but there was nothing here... so as things stand, its all random, if conditions are right, stop up, stay sober, go out... which im happy to do IF theres a chance of seeing them. i also dont want to mislead my followers by telling them to go out, then theres nothing!

[Southern Storm]

2 hours ago, Jamie M said:

That's also a bit more promising that NLC sightings are on the horizon at least soon - albeit off on a late start.

The Welsh radar which can be hard to pick up echoes at times has seen the first decent echoes so far this year. 

The fact that it is picking up echoes, as well as OSWIN around the same time, might indicate there is larger scale cooling of the mesopause which means NLC formation is more likely.

 

36 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

for me, if we can get a reliable indication of whether they are likely or not likely at all..thatll be a start. getting a precise prediction isnt something that can be done.. but it would help if we could at least determine nights when theres no/very little chance, it would save time and effort...

as things stand, without the aim, all we have are euro webcams which arent a very good predictive tool for us. i remember one day last year "flenburgs on fire" someone posted, (arnie?) but there was nothing here... so as things stand, its all random, if conditions are right, stop up, stay sober, go out... which im happy to do IF theres a chance of seeing them. i also dont want to mislead my followers by telling them to go out, then theres nothing!

Hi guys 

I Just want to say thanks to you for taking the time to do research, which I'm sure will help a great deal on giving UK enthusiasts a heads up on the chances of NLCs appearing. The effort is much appreciated!

I did see a couple of reports pop up in the Glendale App last night, one on the east coast, and one at stone henge, but I haven't seen anything pop up on social media, so it's fair to say that is not a very good predictive tool. 

Hopefully the European tab will be of more use, as it will give us at least an hours notice, I'd like to see quite few reports from this area before I would think about head out though. 

Fingers crossed that it won't be long now.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Southern Storm

[Jamie M]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

for me, if we can get a reliable indication of whether they are likely or not likely at all..thatll be a start. getting a precise prediction isnt something that can be done.. but it would help if we could at least determine nights when theres no/very little chance, it would save time and effort...

as things stand, without the aim, all we have are euro webcams which arent a very good predictive tool for us. i remember one day last year "flenburgs on fire" someone posted, (arnie?) but there was nothing here... so as things stand, its all random, if conditions are right, stop up, stay sober, go out... which im happy to do IF theres a chance of seeing them. i also dont want to mislead my followers by telling them to go out, then theres nothing!

Aye I agree fully - rather not stay up for bugger all 

[mushymanrob]

So im guessing that something like the 1200 readings are what we would like to see at 1900 their time....?

 

[Jamie M]

21 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

So im guessing that something like the 1200 readings are what we would like to see at 1900 their time....?

 

Aye although I think the meridional velocity with red would ideally need to be higher into the atmosphere if we want optimal conditions 

[mushymanrob]

27 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Aye although I think the meridional velocity with red would ideally need to be higher into the atmosphere if we want optimal conditions 

understood! thanks.

[Jamie M]

Always good 

[mushymanrob]

Maarsy looks interesting

Oswin down

Nowt on the new one.. 

Nowt on any webcam... yet.. 

[Jamie M]

Wales radar has had 

Wales radar has had echoes intermittently from ~0430 UTC to ~1300 UTC with a gap of 2 hours or so

I suppose this is one of the 'long echoes' that has been mentioned so might be better odds of seeing NLCs tonight

[mushymanrob]

Ettlesberg looks interesting, some brightness behind the cloud, but i can see nothing on other cams

[Southern Storm]

13 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Ettlesberg looks interesting, some brightness behind the cloud, but i can see nothing on other cams

It does look suspiciously bright in one particular area of the sky! 

Definitely worth keeping an eye on