Noctilucent Cloud Season 2023

[Arnie Pie]

While we are waiting for mother nature's 'chef in the sky' to mix all of the ingredients into a great big Noctilucent Cloud pie. 
It may be worth remembering the coloration between solar activity and the amount and brightness of any NCL displays.
Try as i might unable to find any new information on this subject, so i revert to a quote from an article in 2014

British Astronomical Association
`Noctilucent cloud over Britain and Western Europe, 2013–2014`

“It has been reported on a number of occasions that NLC frequency is related to the solar cycle with the assumption that increased solar radiation at solar maximum suppresses NLC formation by not allowing the temperature at the mesopause to reach that required for ice nucleation. The past two solar cycles have shown this quite clearly with NLC reaching maximum frequency in years of solar minimum. This was well demonstrated in the recent years of low solar activity from 2006-2009. Since 2010, solar activity has been increasing and it is generally accepted that solar cycle 24 had two peaks, one in 2012 and a second and slightly higher peak at the beginning of 2014.
However, the overall activity of cycle 24 is believed to be the lowest since cycle 14, which peaked in 1907. Given previous relationships between NLC frequency and the solar cycle it would be expected that NLC frequency would have significantly reduced from 2010 to 2014, but the reduction in frequency found by observation does not show a marked decline. One explanation for this lack of fall in NLC frequency must lie in the low activity level of solar cycle 24.”

Some info i have put together which shows the slight reduction in displays in relation to Sunspot activity

Information from                            Information from

Spaceweather.com       www.leuchtende-nachtwolken.info/chronik.htm  

Spotless Days                                Number of NLC displays
Current Stretch: 0 days
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)                             52
2021 total: 64 days (18%)                         46
2020 total: 208 days (57%)                       64
2019 total: 281 days (77%)                       48
2018 total: 221 days (61%)                       54
2017 total: 104 days (28%)                       39
2016 total: 32 days (9%)                            30
2015 total: 0 days (0%)                              30
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)                              29
2013 total: 0 days (0%)                              28
2012 total: 0 days (0%)                              27
2011 total: 2 days  (1%)                             29 
2010 total: 51 days (14%)                          25
2009 total: 260 days (71%)                        37
2008 total: 268 days (73%)                        29
2007 total: 152 days (42%)                        18
2006 total: 70 days (19%)                          35
 Updated 29 May 2023

We are heading towards a solar maximum, part of the Sun's solar cycle of activity lasting around 11 years.
so inevitably we should expect to see fewer NLC displays

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

While we are waiting for mother nature's 'chef in the sky' to mix all of the ingredients into a great big Noctilucent Cloud pie. 
It may be worth remembering the coloration between solar activity and the amount and brightness of any NCL displays.
Try as i might unable to find any new information on this subject, so i revert to a quote from an article in 2014

British Astronomical Association
`Noctilucent cloud over Britain and Western Europe, 2013–2014`

“It has been reported on a number of occasions that NLC frequency is related to the solar cycle with the assumption that increased solar radiation at solar maximum suppresses NLC formation by not allowing the temperature at the mesopause to reach that required for ice nucleation. The past two solar cycles have shown this quite clearly with NLC reaching maximum frequency in years of solar minimum. This was well demonstrated in the recent years of low solar activity from 2006-2009. Since 2010, solar activity has been increasing and it is generally accepted that solar cycle 24 had two peaks, one in 2012 and a second and slightly higher peak at the beginning of 2014.
However, the overall activity of cycle 24 is believed to be the lowest since cycle 14, which peaked in 1907. Given previous relationships between NLC frequency and the solar cycle it would be expected that NLC frequency would have significantly reduced from 2010 to 2014, but the reduction in frequency found by observation does not show a marked decline. One explanation for this lack of fall in NLC frequency must lie in the low activity level of solar cycle 24.”

Some info i have put together which shows the slight reduction in displays in relation to Sunspot activity

Information from                            Information from

Spaceweather.com       www.leuchtende-nachtwolken.info/chronik.htm  

Spotless Days                                Number of NLC displays
Current Stretch: 0 days
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)                             52
2021 total: 64 days (18%)                         46
2020 total: 208 days (57%)                       64
2019 total: 281 days (77%)                       48
2018 total: 221 days (61%)                       54
2017 total: 104 days (28%)                       39
2016 total: 32 days (9%)                            30
2015 total: 0 days (0%)                              30
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)                              29
2013 total: 0 days (0%)                              28
2012 total: 0 days (0%)                              27
2011 total: 2 days  (1%)                             29 
2010 total: 51 days (14%)                          25
2009 total: 260 days (71%)                        37
2008 total: 268 days (73%)                        29
2007 total: 152 days (42%)                        18
2006 total: 70 days (19%)                          35
 Updated 29 May 2023

We are heading towards a solar maximum, part of the Sun's solar cycle of activity lasting around 11 years.
so inevitably we should expect to see fewer NLC displays

hmm.... im not convinced there , and since nlcs are being more widely reported then once they were owing to more exposure (i only discovered them 12/15 years ago and ive been into weather since the ark! lol), i have to question the accuracy of the figures anyway. Plus those figures come from the D/A/Ch  region which im assuming means Germany, Austria and Switzerland ...

A true picture would be of occurances in the northern hemisphere, how many times has Europe had them and we havnt?

[Jamie M]

14 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

While we are waiting for mother nature's 'chef in the sky' to mix all of the ingredients into a great big Noctilucent Cloud pie. 
It may be worth remembering the coloration between solar activity and the amount and brightness of any NCL displays.
Try as i might unable to find any new information on this subject, so i revert to a quote from an article in 2014

British Astronomical Association
`Noctilucent cloud over Britain and Western Europe, 2013–2014`

“It has been reported on a number of occasions that NLC frequency is related to the solar cycle with the assumption that increased solar radiation at solar maximum suppresses NLC formation by not allowing the temperature at the mesopause to reach that required for ice nucleation. The past two solar cycles have shown this quite clearly with NLC reaching maximum frequency in years of solar minimum. This was well demonstrated in the recent years of low solar activity from 2006-2009. Since 2010, solar activity has been increasing and it is generally accepted that solar cycle 24 had two peaks, one in 2012 and a second and slightly higher peak at the beginning of 2014.
However, the overall activity of cycle 24 is believed to be the lowest since cycle 14, which peaked in 1907. Given previous relationships between NLC frequency and the solar cycle it would be expected that NLC frequency would have significantly reduced from 2010 to 2014, but the reduction in frequency found by observation does not show a marked decline. One explanation for this lack of fall in NLC frequency must lie in the low activity level of solar cycle 24.”

Some info i have put together which shows the slight reduction in displays in relation to Sunspot activity

Information from                            Information from

Spaceweather.com       www.leuchtende-nachtwolken.info/chronik.htm  

Spotless Days                                Number of NLC displays
Current Stretch: 0 days
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)                             52
2021 total: 64 days (18%)                         46
2020 total: 208 days (57%)                       64
2019 total: 281 days (77%)                       48
2018 total: 221 days (61%)                       54
2017 total: 104 days (28%)                       39
2016 total: 32 days (9%)                            30
2015 total: 0 days (0%)                              30
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)                              29
2013 total: 0 days (0%)                              28
2012 total: 0 days (0%)                              27
2011 total: 2 days  (1%)                             29 
2010 total: 51 days (14%)                          25
2009 total: 260 days (71%)                        37
2008 total: 268 days (73%)                        29
2007 total: 152 days (42%)                        18
2006 total: 70 days (19%)                          35
 Updated 29 May 2023

We are heading towards a solar maximum, part of the Sun's solar cycle of activity lasting around 11 years.
so inevitably we should expect to see fewer NLC displays

I've always assumed that more solar activity would mean a higher temperature in the mesopause so lower NLC activity although I've got nothing to back that up other than hearsay.

It doesn't seem to really work for a year like 2014 and 2015 though which both had 28 & 29 days despite 2014 being the maximum for Solar Cycle 24 and 2015 being a 'spotless year'.

2019 also had 281 spotless days although it has lower NLC sightings than 2020 which had 208 spotless days. 

[Arnie Pie]

12 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

hmm.... im not convinced there , and since nlcs are being more widely reported then once they were owing to more exposure (i only discovered them 12/15 years ago and ive been into weather since the ark! lol), i have to question the accuracy of the figures anyway. Plus those figures come from the D/A/Ch  region which im assuming means Germany, Austria and Switzerland ...

A true picture would be of occurances in the northern hemisphere, how many times has Europe had them and we havnt?

These examples are from the only chroniced displays of Noctilucent Clouds availabe on the web (that I can find anyhows)

To which they have been recording their results for over 30 years, fistly through the NCLNET site, and presently on the AKM site

They relate to the number of Night/morning displays over the Northern hemisphere NLC season and not just individual reports.

You assumed correctly about the D/A/CH region, which the last time i checked is in the Northern hemisphere

9 hours ago, Jamie M said:

I've always assumed that more solar activity would mean a higher temperature in the mesopause so lower NLC activity although I've got nothing to back that up other than hearsay.

It doesn't seem to really work for a year like 2014 and 2015 though which both had 28 & 29 days despite 2014 being the maximum for Solar Cycle 24 and 2015 being a 'spotless year'.

2019 also had 281 spotless days although it has lower NLC sightings than 2020 which had 208 spotless days. 

A difficult subject to prove, thats why my hearsay comes from a cited paper on the British Astronomy association site
the article mentions the low solar activity of solar cycle 24 in it`s last sentence.

however the general trend of the number of displays in relationship to solar activity can be seen. ie less displays at the height of solar activity 2012-2015 compared with more displays when the Sun was less active 2018-2021

[Southern Storm]

I've just been having a scan through some of the euro webcams, and came across one that peaked my interest 

Bayerische Zugspitzbahn - Blick vom Gipfel nach Norden - Foto-Webcam.eu

WWW.FOTO-WEBCAM.EU

---

Webcam Bayerische Zugspitzbahn - Blick vom Gipfel nach Norden

IT could just be low level clouds way off in the distance, either way, I'll be keeping watch for the next half an hour or so In case something pops up.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Arnie Pie said:

These examples are from the only chroniced displays of Noctilucent Clouds availabe on the web (that I can find anyhows)

To which they have been recording their results for over 30 years, fistly through the NCLNET site, and presently on the AKM site

They relate to the number of Night/morning displays over the Northern hemisphere NLC season and not just individual reports.

You assumed correctly about the D/A/CH region, which the last time i checked is in the Northern hemisphere

A difficult subject to prove, thats why my hearsay comes from a cited paper on the British Astronomy association site
the article mentions the low solar activity of solar cycle 24 in it`s last sentence.

however the general trend of the number of displays in relationship to solar activity can be seen. ie less displays at the height of solar activity 2012-2015 compared with more displays when the Sun was less active 2018-2021

... but a very small area of the northern hemisphere, there could have been more or less displays in other areas.. 

Not enough data to draw conclusions

[Arnie Pie]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

... but a very small area of the northern hemisphere, there could have been more or less displays in other areas.. 

Not enough data to draw conclusions

30 years of data collected by the same group of observers

Can you show me some data that disproves the theory that noctilucent cloud displays are effected by Solar activity?

anything so we can agree to disagree

[Jamie M]

nothing in Europe but something in Canada maybe? 

[mushymanrob]

48 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

nothing in Europe but something in Canada maybe? 

if they are, they are too faint to count! lol

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

30 years of data collected by the same group of observers

Can you show me some data that disproves the theory that noctilucent cloud displays are effected by Solar activity?

anything so we can agree to disagree

Of course i cant..... but i dont think theres enough data to draw conclusions, itll take many more years.

[Arnie Pie]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Of course i cant..... but i dont think theres enough data to draw conclusions, itll take many more years.

I understand that the data only representing a small segment of the pole. 

Frustratingly the data was out there until last year when the AIM satellite archives suddenly disappeared from the web (from my limited search ability.)

The archives held all(both North and South) of the Daily daisies, Albedo, Radius and ice water content strips from the start of it`s mission in 2007

I`m guessing that the volume of noctilucent clouds seen on the daisies could have been calculated in to a mass % for each year
 
The achieves was kept on NASA`s https://aim.hamptonu.edu/ site through the 'Browse CIPS Daily Images' link

The answers could out there

Can anybody find the Aim satellite achieves???

Edit They have been removed from the https://spaceweather.com/ site also

 

Edited June 1, 2023 by Arnie Pie

[mushymanrob]

15 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

I understand that the data only representing a small segment of the pole. 

Frustratingly the data was out there until last year when the AIM satellite archives suddenly disappeared from the web (from my limited search ability.)

The archives held all(both North and South) of the Daily daisies, Albedo, Radius and ice water content strips from the start of it`s mission in 2007

I`m guessing that the volume of noctilucent clouds seen on the daisies could have been calculated in to a mass % for each year
 
The achieves was kept on NASA`s https://aim.hamptonu.edu/ site through the 'Browse CIPS Daily Images' link

The answers  out there

Make of this what you will ..

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Make of this what you will ..

That, on the face of it, looks like an inverse relationship, but a relationship nonetheless, Rob. Where do noctilucent clouds get their energy from, if not the sun? 

[Arnie Pie]

10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Make of this what you will ..

Interesting, you can see the relationship between the peaks of sightings and the troughs of times of less solar activity, which are pretty constant up till the last few years

If its just sightings that the graph is recording then it`s understandable, as you said in an earlier post " nlcs are being more widely reported then once they were owing to more exposure"

if it`s Night/ morning displays then it`s becoming more understandable why there is more recent research into Noctilucent clouds and global warming

 Have you got a link for this graph Rob

[mushymanrob]

9 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Interesting, you can see the relationship between the peaks of sightings and the troughs of times of less solar activity, which are pretty constant up till the last few years

If its just sightings that the graph is recording then it`s understandable, as you said in an earlier post " nlcs are being more widely reported then once they were owing to more exposure"

if it`s Night/ morning displays then it`s becoming more understandable why there is more recent research into Noctilucent clouds and global warming

 Have you got a link for this graph Rob

I made it! lol.... i edited a solar activity graph off google, then added the green lines myself using that data from that site that was posted here... the D/A/Ch one... There were some gradings at the side so i used them for the sightings in tens..

 

Edited June 1, 2023 by mushymanrob

[mushymanrob]

17 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

That, on the face of it, looks like an inverse relationship, but a relationship nonetheless, Rob. Where do noctilucent clouds get their energy from, if not the sun? 

 they appear to do better when theres low solar activity...

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Interesting, you can see the relationship between the peaks of sightings and the troughs of times of less solar activity, which are pretty constant up till the last few years

If its just sightings that the graph is recording then it`s understandable, as you said in an earlier post " nlcs are being more widely reported then once they were owing to more exposure"

if it`s Night/ morning displays then it`s becoming more understandable why there is more recent research into Noctilucent clouds and global warming

 Have you got a link for this graph Rob

I wish I knew more about quantum theory than I do, Arnie. But, alas, I do not.

But there must be a relationship between the frequency of incoming solar radiation and that which (at least that within the visible spectrum) is subsequently re-emitted by noctilucent clouds. 

[Arnie Pie]

12 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

I wish I knew more about quantum theory than I do, Arnie. But, alas, I do not.

I think we are all in the same boat

I'm not sure I even understand the question

[Arnie Pie]

Some interesting latest posts on the German forum

Aktuelle Situation an OSWIN & Co. NLC-Saison 2023 - Seite 2 - AKM e.V. Forum

FORUM.METEOROS.DE

 

[Jamie M]

41 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Some interesting latest posts on the German forum

Aktuelle Situation an OSWIN & Co. NLC-Saison 2023 - Seite 2 - AKM e.V. Forum

FORUM.METEOROS.DE

 

A lot of sightings that aren't sightings floating about 

[Arnie Pie]

1 hour ago, Jamie M said:

A lot of sightings that aren't sightings floating about 

Easily done when your looking to hard

I`ve been in that situation in the past and no doubt will be in the future

[Arnie Pie]

The laser beams are on at Kühlungsborn from the RMR lidar .. and they are attracting some kind of matter around the beams

AllskyCam_KBORN - Leibniz-Institut für Atmosphärenphysik, Kühlungsborn

WWW.IAP-KBORN.DE

 

[mushymanrob]

Heres a not very good stat...

Out of the 12 best years for sightings (30 or more per season) all but one had started on or before  June 2nd.

[mushymanrob]

Crystal clear skies here atm, im likely to venture out tonight...

 

[mushymanrob]

Reports are coming in that NLCs were seen on the 26th and have "grown since", but i dont know where this was, it came via a pm to my site and was a forewarded mail from an astronomy group.