Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[Sprites]

20 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Slight case of mammatus above the pyramid stage at Glasto.

It's more like strato-cumulus hitting an inversion, looks a bit like mammatus. 

Edited June 23, 2023 by Sprites

[congerball]

Looking forward to Sunday for us up North. Hope it stays on track

[Metwatch]

56 minutes ago, Sprites said:

It's more like strato-cumulus hitting an inversion, looks a bit like mammatus. 

Get them here from time to time. They're very dramatic looking the stratocumulus, occuring when the winds are quite light. I see them usually most time of the year apart from winter or late autumn. I like to call them false mammatus / asperitas.

Some stark examples I've captured and edited from this spring which were not particularly of a convective origin.

[Iceman2606]

Humid & Convective - 22 June 2023 Time-Lapse

 

[matty40s]

Quite amazing change of cloud cover, in half an hour, everything's cleared , Texas style sky, and the sun is beating down waiting for FooFighters aka churnups.

[Sprites]

23 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Get them here from time to time. They're very dramatic looking the stratocumulus, occuring when the winds are quite light. I see them usually most time of the year apart from winter or late autumn. I like to call them false mammatus / asperitas.

Some stark examples I've captured and edited from this spring which were not particularly of a convective origin.

Yes I associate mammatus clouds with cirrus,cirrocumulus, and cumulonimbus.

The strato-cumulus that spreads out under an inversion, is usually from stable conditions.

[Eagle Eye]

Cherry picked sounding for Sunday. Very ample bouyancy and strong 3CAPE should allow for active thunderstorms. With MLCAPE based updraft speed (minus the averaged out cloud layer wind speed) being about 20 m/s or nearing 70 km/h for some fairly active thunderstorms. Assuming downwards fall speed equal to updraft speed then hail slightly in excess of 2 inches may be possible. Generally though, a Supercell would need to form if that were to happen. Non-supercellular hail would have too much drag to get larger than at best 1.25 inches in my opinion. Though, if it forms in a rear inflow jet of a squall line then the effective inflow layer may be realised and the drag weaker than the outflow area. This could mean that 1.5 - 1.75 inch hail even without a Supercell may be possible. However, I have not taken the time out of my day to work that out specifically. That also assumes that a squall does form. The low LCL's and relatively large inflow layer relative to previous events does suggest that large hail is possible. Generally, the GFS is probably overdoing that hail size and I get the feeling that the drag will be more significant than currently suggested but it is a possibility. It'll be interesting to see closer to time, whether or not the vorticity is realised as crosswise or streamwise because theoretically a tornado or two is possible with streamwise inflow in my opinion, even if only a squall line and no Supercells form. This given the general strength of vorticity is looking fairly good. That hodograph looks very multicellular rather than Supercellular bit I could see a south side Supercell possible but we'll have to see how it plays out as that's only based off not much more than a guess really.

[Neilsouth]

BBC nor MET making much of any storms in Kent on Sunday.. Although they said there might be some heavy rain in the evening? :D

[ChannelThunder]

1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

BBC nor MET making much of any storms in Kent on Sunday.. Although they said there might be some heavy rain in the evening?

Dunno where they're getting the latter from. No rain south & east of London on any model...

[Rush2019]

2 hours ago, matty40s said:

Slight case of mammatus above the pyramid stage at Glasto.

I thought for a minute you were referring to the young lass in the bottom left of the picture.

[Scuba steve]

1 minute ago, Rush2112 said:

I thought for a minute you were referring to the young lass in the bottom left of the picture.

I’m glad you’re keeping abreast of the current situation

 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

I’m glad you’re keeping abreast of the current situation

 

Even Glasto has its knockers? 

[JR319]

What is the likelihood that the storms will trend southwards to cover more of the Midlands and Eastern England? 

[camturbo]

47 minutes ago, JR319 said:

What is the likelihood that the storms will trend southwards to cover more of the Midlands and Eastern England? 

And the southwest and south

[Aiden2012]

As I see the ukv the main action goes into the North Sea, tell if I’m wrong though ? 

[CoventryWeather]

1 hour ago, JR319 said:

What is the likelihood that the storms will trend southwards to cover more of the Midlands and Eastern England? 

Unlikely I feel - the extent of the squall line may be larger (ie further south) but the greatest risk of severe storms into N England and Southern Scotland. 

[ChannelThunder]

9 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

As I see the ukv the main action goes into the North Sea, tell if I’m wrong though ? 

That'll be when it forms into an MCS/squall. It still shows individual cells forming over north/east England. UKV will firm up on the details nearer the time of course too.

[matty40s]

2 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

I thought for a minute you were referring to the young lass in the bottom left of the picture.

Apparently there are 2 couples selling t17 tassels for £10, I think that may have been one of them.

[Supacell]

21 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

As I see the ukv the main action goes into the North Sea, tell if I’m wrong though ? 

This is the worry. If the cold front goes through too early it will be a case of severe thunderstorms over the North Sea and near Continent. The slower it moves east, the better. 

[Scuba steve]

9 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Apparently there are 2 couples selling t17 tassels for £10, I think that may have been one of them.

Vigazzles price ,asking for a friend

[Rush2019]

Fun and games for folks in Ireland Sunday am.  It's going to be very entertaining watching how this all pans out.  Pop up showers ahead of this for the UK, a great day for sky and radar watching.

[Scuba steve]

1 minute ago, Rush2112 said:

Fun and games for folks in Ireland Sunday am.  It's going to be very entertaining watching how this all pans out.  Pop up showers ahead of this for the UK, a great day for sky and radar watching.

Line echo looks like fun 

[Sprites]

1 hour ago, JR319 said:

What is the likelihood that the storms will trend southwards to cover more of the Midlands and Eastern England? 

There MAYBE a few elevated storms in your area Sunday evening/night. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 hour ago, Supacell said:

This is the worry. If the cold front goes through too early it will be a case of severe thunderstorms over the North Sea and near Continent. The slower it moves east, the better. 

Very much so. Last 24 hours, models have trended on front moving through a bit quicker. That saying if we're talking severe potential, I'd rather too quick than too slow, as at least we'll have storms in their discrete stage before things get a bit messy. 

Hopefully, models trend a bit the other way tomorrow. But even then, I am a little more hopeful that high pressure to our east might be a bit more stubborn and I doubt the models will have a good grasp on timing, even during Sunday itself!

Edited June 23, 2023 by Ben Sainsbury

[Aiden2012]

My guess it’s going to be down to radar watching, so I’ll be doing my shift at work early as possible cause I’ll be chasing this 1 if it comes off