July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

 

(a) CET Temperature forecast contest -- averages and extremes

 

... all years since 1981 (v2.0.1.0) are shown for comparison

... warmest 14 are bold type, middle 14 are italic type and coolest 14 are underlined.

... CET v2.0.1.0 breaks ties by second decimals which accounts for various years such as 1995, 2013 not shown as tied here.

... averages also recalculated for v2.0.1.0 data.

 

28.1 ... 19th, 2022, warmest daily mean

19.8 ... 2006 (warmest July)

19.4 ... 1983 (2nd warmest)

19.2 ... 2018 (3rd warmest)

18.8 ... 1783 (4th warmest)

18.7 ... 1852 (5th warmest)

18.6 ... 1976 (6th warmest)

18.5 ... 1921 (7th warmest), 1995 (8th warmest) 

18.4 ... 2013 (9th), 1808 (10th warmest), 1757 (11th warmest) 1808

18.2 ... 2022

18.1 ... 1989

18.0 ... 1994

17.9 ... 2014 

17.8 ... 2021

17.6 ... 1999, 2019

17.5 ... 

17.4 ... 2003

17.2 ... 2010

17.1 ... 2001, 1991 

17.0 ... 2016 ... average 2001-2022

16.9 ... 2017 ... average 1993-2022 

16.8 ... 1984, 1990, 2005 ... average for 1991-2020 

16.7 ...

16.6 ... 1997 ... average for 1981-2010 (16.63 compared to 16.71 legacy CET)

16.5 ... 

16.4 ... 1982, 1996, 2008 ... average for 1971-2000 (16.38 cf 16.48 legacy CET)

16.3 ... 2009

16.1 ... 1985, 1992 ... average 1901-2000 (16.06 vs 16.09 legacy) and 1701-1800

16.0 ... 2015 ... average for 1961-1990 (16.1 legacy) and all years 1659-2022

15.9 ... 

15.8 ... 1987, 2002, 2020 ... average for 1801-1900

15.7 ... 1986, 2004

15.6 ... 2012, average for 1659-1700

15.5 ... 1981 and lowest 30-year average 1671-1700 (15.47)

15.4 ... 1998

15.3 ... 2000, 2007, 2011

15.1 ... 1993 

14.6 ... 1988 (tied with 1980 as coldest since 1965, and with four other years as tied 35th coldest)

14.0 ... 1965 CET (t-11th coldest with 1674, 1685, 1713)

13.9 ... 1919 (10th coldest)

13.8 ... 1725, 1840, 1841 (tied 7th coldest)

13.7 ... 1888, 1922 (tied 5th coldest)

13.6 ... 1879 (4th coldest)

13.5 ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest)

13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

 8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your July forecast by end of the day Friday 30th June without penalty,

or during the first three days of July with increasing time penalties.

=================================================================================

 

(b) Optional EWP contest

Predict the England and Wales mean precipitation in mm for July 2023. The contest uses the Hadley EWP version which runs from 1766 to 2022. Here are some averages and extremes as a guide:

 

182.6 __ wettest (1828)

140.7 __ wettest since 1981 (2009)

_93.9 __ highest 30-year average (1773-1802 and 1775-1804)

_79.1 __ average for 1766-2022

_70.5 __ average for 1993-2022

_72.0 __ average for 1991-2020

_67.3 __ average for 1981-2010

_57.4 __ lowest 30-year average (1971-2000)

_22.6 __ driest since 1981 (2022)

_15.8 __ driest since 1825 (1911)

__8.2 __ driest (1825) __ second driest was 1800 (9.1 mm)

_____________________________________________________________________________________

recent values: 2022_22.6 ... 2021_90.5 .... 2020_69.0 .... 2019_71.7 .... 2018_39.6 .... 2017_105.7 .... 2016_43.6 mm

... ... ... ... ... ... 2015_92.1 .... 2014_54.7 .... 2013_54.0 .... 2012_120.7 .... 2011_65.2 .... 2010_67.9 mm ... 2009_ 140.7 mm

 

Enter your EWP forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines. 

Maximum score 10.0, late penalties 0.3 per day.

Good luck !!

Edited June 25, 2023 by reef
Changed title from 2022 to 2023.

[Roger J Smith]

By the way, in creating the above table, I noted that three months had changed their means from v2.0 to v2.0.1.0. Last year I had posted a thread using the new v2.0, but v2.0.1.0 has come into existence since then. I had assumed there were no differences in the data sets before they discontinued v2.0 (the last entries for v2.0 are on 18 April 2023). 

I checked one out (July 2013 dropped from 18.5 to 18.4) and found that there were no differences in daily CET table values for any of the 31 days, and it appears to be a new rounding convention at work, as my calculation from the similar data sets was 18.45. I wonder if perhaps they went over their data set and changed certain rounded values if either they had a new protocol about which way to round, or they took a more direct average of mean max and mean min rather than average of all daily means. It would not affect many months. I am going to generate a list of months that are different in that thread I created about changes from legacy to v2.0. 1999, 2014 and 2018 also changed by 0.1. 

All details of changes made are now available in the thread concerning CET legacy to v2.0 updates, which now lists all (about 50 in total) months and two annual means that have changed by 0.1 -- all have taken place since 1968 for months and 1947 for annual means (no monthly values changed in the two years that saw an adjustment of their annual mean -- the general conclusion I reached is that the changes are due to some rounding protocols that were perhaps observed before the 1970s, since there were no adjustments made to months before 1968, or possibly, I just happened to notice some work underway moving back through the data and more changes may show up, so I will monitor for that possibility. It's not much work for me, I just download the two sets, run text to columns, and run a differential, all the results are 0.0 except the changed values. 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Earthshine]

Going with 18.1°C and 50mm.  Warm SST will limit just how cool any westerly spells are and I'm keeping an eye out for some quite extreme heat to build into Iberia - should we tap into it we could really see some quite high temperatures that would be less modified by sea temperatures than you might expect.

[Frigid]

19.5C and 42mm. I'm done with predicting cooler than average months..

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

19.8C to tie 2006 record.

[Don]

13 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Going with 18.1°C and 50mm.  Warm SST will limit just how cool any westerly spells are and I'm keeping an eye out for some quite extreme heat to build into Iberia - should we tap into it we could really see some quite high temperatures that would be less modified by sea temperatures than you might expect.

Is that all?! 

[Summer8906]

17.2 and 75.9mm.

I started out with the 2010 figures and increased the rainfall a little bit. Gut feeling is for the jetstream to move south with more Atlantic influence but not a  washout. A north-south split, fairly cloudy in all areas, dry in the south (and warmish), wet in the north, but perhaps one difference from 2010 is a (short) more generally wet and cyclonic spell, perhaps later in the month.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Summer8906

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Is that all?! 

Generally unspectacular synoptics but such warmth around the UK we end up with an 18C+ month!

[Weather26]

16.9C and 112MM-I feel like that change to unsettled conditions is well and truly on it's way.

[Earthshine]

Hang on, I think I know the CET for this competition month.  July 2022 was 18.2C!

[Don]

5 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Generally unspectacular synoptics but such warmth around the UK we end up with an 18C+ month!

Yes, would be very difficult to achieve an average month currently, let alone below!!

[Bobd29]

17.7C and 74.5mm please.

[Methuselah]

I'll pump for 19.9C and 50mm. 

[chilly milly]

17.1c and 69mm

[Catbrainz]

Going for 17.2C and 60mm

[Methuselah]

21 hours ago, Methuselah said:

I'll pump for 19.9C and 50mm. 

Well, that didn't last long, did it? Same rainfall, but CET down to 17.5C. 

[Polar Gael]

20.0°C and 75mm for me please.

[SummerShower]

16.8C and 103mm

Going for very unsettled but with some thunder.  1 plume event 2nd half of the month.  I've just got a feeling this will be a classic front loaded summer.

If I'm wrong though, and it's a good month I'll be happy either way  

[emmett garland]

19.2 degrees and 49mm please Roger

[Summer8906]

On 20/06/2023 at 12:27, Summer8906 said:

17.2 and 75.9mm.

I started out with the 2010 figures and increased the rainfall a little bit. Gut feeling is for the jetstream to move south with more Atlantic influence but not a  washout. A north-south split, fairly cloudy in all areas, dry in the south (and warmish), wet in the north, but perhaps one difference from 2010 is a (short) more generally wet and cyclonic spell, perhaps later in the month.

 

Am I allowed to change this?

If so 16.5 and 100mm - beginning to look like it could be the poorest July since 2012 on current models. Seems to show a locked-in cyclonic pattern over the whole country the likes of which we haven't see in July for some time, even during the run of rather meh months from 2015 to 2021 (except 2018).

Not going for such high rainfall as 2012 as I suspect it'll be a little more moderate.

If I can't change, fair enough - will know not to make rash early predictions in the future

Edited June 22, 2023 by Summer8906

[Frigid]

21 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

 

Am I allowed to change this?

If so 16.5 and 100mm - beginning to look like it could be the poorest July since 2012 on current models. Seems to show a locked-in cyclonic pattern over the whole country the likes of which we haven't see in July for some time, even during the run of rather meh months from 2015 to 2021 (except 2018).

Not going for such high rainfall as 2012 as I suspect it'll be a little more moderate.

If I can't change, fair enough - will know not to make rash early predictions in the future

You forgot July 2020, in some way that felt cooler than July 2012, until the last few days of course. 

[Summer8906]

7 minutes ago, Frigid said:

You forgot July 2020, in some way that felt cooler than July 2012, until the last few days of course. 

July 2020 was very meh, cloudy and cool but not as cyclonic as what this morning's GFS or ECM are showing. More westerly than cyclonic, with reasonable pressure in the south, IIRC. Don't get me wrong, it wasn't my favourite July of all time by any means - too cool and cloudy for most of it, then a brief burst of silly, OTT heat.

Edited June 22, 2023 by Summer8906

[I remember Atlantic 252]

16.1, 98mm, low pressure to dominate

[virtualsphere]

17.9C and 103mm please. Going for generally unsettled and westerly, but warmer than average due to the high SSTs in the Atlantic.

[Summer18]

17.7 & 88mm