July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Mr Maunder]

17.5c and 82mm for me please.

MM

[rwtwm]

17.7c and 70mm please

[Godber 1]

16.8c and 75mm please.

[Weather Observer]

17.9 and 68mm

[kold weather]

I think we are going to have to have a hell of a sustained northerly blocking pattern to avoid an above average month, particularly on the older measures. SSTs are still on fire just about every cardinal direction we look in and so the base temperature is probably 1c above  the 91-20 average in what you'd expect for the same pattern (probably moreso the further west you go, Ireland I'd imagine maybe more like 2c above base).

Synoptically I'd guess 17C (modestly above average), but I think we may end up pretty close to 18c. I will go 17.8, but with a significant upside risk of something closer to 19c as well if the mean placement of the upper lows in the atlantic are a hair further SW.

80mm precip.

Edited June 30, 2023 by kold weather

[DR(S)NO]

18.3c and 60 mm

thank you please

[mulzy]

17.3C and 56mm please

[feb1991blizzard]

17.4c and 52mm please.

[Stationary Front]

17.8 please with 73mm

[moorlander]

18.1 C and 56mm please 

[Don]

Haven't the foggiest TBH, but have to go for something, so lets say 17.7C and 75mm, please.

[davehsug]

17.6C & 52mm please

[Midlands Ice Age]

17.9C and 56mms please...

 

[Metwatch]

17.4°C and 57mm please. 

Although this summer has the best chance of having a July cooler than June, I don't think that feat will be achieved, although can never be certain what surprises can happen. 

First half of July looks to be fairly average for temperatures maybe a touch below at times. Spells of showers and longer spells of rain in the mix. The second half may be a bit warmer and also drier. 

[snowray]

On 27/06/2023 at 10:41, snowray said:

16.6c and 89mm please.

Can I change please, looking slightly milder and less wet, so going for the double, 17c, same as June and 79mm.

Thanks

[Norrance]

17.7C and 49mms please.

[J10]

17.7c and 75mm

[February1978]

17.6C and 63mm please

[Mapantz]

17.6°C / 44mm

[Kentish Man]

17.2C thanks

[Mark Bayley]

17.2c please

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for July 2023

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) ____________________ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry)

20.0 _ 75.0 _ Polar Gael ( 8 ) __________________________________ 17.5 _ 50.0 _ Methuselah ( 7 ) __________________________

19.8 _ --- --- _ Blue_Skies_Do_I_See ( 2 ) _______________________ 17.5 _ --- ---_ Typhoon John ( 21 ) _______________________

19.2 _ 49.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 10 ) ___________________________17.5 _ 82.0 _ MrMaunder ( 35 ) _________________________

19.2 _ 52.0 _ Matt Stoke (L1-3 ) _______________________________ 17.5 _ 65.0 _ Frigid (L1-2 ) _______________________________

18.8 _ 58.0 _ The PIT ( 24 ) ____________________________________17.4 _ 52.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 42 ) ____________________

18.3 _ 60.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 40 ) ___________________________________ 17.4 _ 57.0 _ Metwatch ( 48 ) __________________________

18.2 _ 55.0 _ seaside60 ( L1-4 ) _______________________________ 17.3 _ 56.0 _ Mulzy ( 41 ) ________________________________

18.1 _ 50.0 _ Earthshine ( 1 ) __________________________________ 17.2 _ 60.0 _ catbrainz ( 6 ) ______________________________

18.1 _ 56.0 _ Moorlander ( 44 ) ________________________________17.2 _ --- --- _ Kentish Man ( 54 ) _________________________

18.0 _ 65.0 _ leo 97t ( 15 ) _____________________________________ 17.2 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 55 ) __________________________

18.0 _ 80.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 34 ) _____________________________ 17.1 _ 69.0 _ chilly milly ( 5 ) _____________________________

17.9 _103.0_ virtualsphere ( 13 ) ______________________________17.0 _ 79.0 _ snowray ( 49 ) _____________________________

17.9 _ 70.0 _ Wold Topper ( 22 ) _______________________________16.9 _112.0_ Weather26 ( 3 ) ___________________________ 

17.9 _ 48.0 _ Summer Blizzard ( 25 ) __________________________ 16.9 _ 81.0 _ ProlongedSnowLover ( 31 ) ________________ 

________________________________________________________________ 16.9 _ 45.0 _ daniel* ( L1-1 ) _____________________________

17.9 _ 74.5 _ Reef ( 33 ) ________________________________________16.9 _ 70.5 _ Average 1993-2022 ________________________

17.9 _ 68.0 _ Weather Observer ( 38 ) _______________________ 16.8 _103.0_ Summer Shower ( 9 ) _____________________ 

17.9 _ 56.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 47 ) ________________________ 16.8 _ 75.0 _ Godber1 ( 37 ) ______________________________

17.8 _ 50.0 _ B87 ( 17 ) _________________________________________16.8 _ 72.0 _ Average 1991-2020 _________________________

17.8 _ --- ---_ Stretford End ( 20 ) _______________________________16.7 _ 72.0 _ jonboy ( 28 ) _________________________________ 

________________________________________________________________ 16.7 _ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( L1-5 ) _________________

17.8 _ 80.0 _ kold weather ( 39 ) _______________________________16.6 _ 52.0 _ SteveB ( 26 ) __________________________________ 

17.8 _ 73.0 _ Stationary Front ( 43 ) ___________________________ 16.6 _ 67.3 _ Average 1981-2010 __________________________

17.7 _ 74.5 _ bobd29 ( 4 ) ______________________________________16.5 _100.0_ summer8906 ( 11 ) ___________________________

17.7 _ 88.0 _ Summer18 ( 14 ) _________________________________16.5 _ 66.0 _ NeilN ( 27 ) ___________________________________

17.7 _ 70.0 _ sunny_vale ( 29 ) _________________________________16.4 _ 59.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 19 ) _______________________

17.7 _ 70.0 _ rwtwm ( 36 ) _____________________________________ 16.2 _ --- ---_ Summer Sun ( 18 ) ____________________________

17.7 _ 75.0 _ Don ( 45 ) ________________________________________ 16.1 _ 98.0 _ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 12 ) ________________

17.7 _ 49.0 _ Norrance ( 50 ) ___________________________________16.0 _ 79.1 _ Average of all data ____________________________

17.7 _ 75.0 _ J 10 ( 51 ) _________________________________________15.6 _120.8_ Roger J Smith ( 16 ) ____________________________

17.6 _ 68.0 _ JeffC ( 23 ) ________________________________________ 15.6 _ 98.0 _ noname_weather ( L1-6 ) ____________________

17.6 _ --- --- _damianslaw ( 32 ) ________________________________ 15.4 _ 85.0 _ syed2878 ( 30 ) _________________________________

17.6 _ 52.0 _ davehsug ( 46 ) _________________________________

17.6 _ 63.0 _ February1978 ( 52 ) ____________________________ 

17.6 _ 44.0 _ Mapantz ( 53 ) _________________________________

17.6 _ 68.0 __ consensus 

 

now 55 on time forecasts,  plus six one day late so far, 61 total __ consensus (median) 17.6 C. 

(Frigid edited after late deadline, becomes L1-2 from 2)

(daniel* L-1, Matt Stoke L1-3, seaside60 L1-4, Walsall Wood Snow L1-5, noname_weather L1-6 ) added to table. 

 

<< == LATE ENTRIES WILL BE ADDED UNTIL END OF 3rd JULY == >>

 

===================================

EWP forecasts in order

 

120.8_RJS ... 112_wx26 ... 103_SumSh, virt ... 100_Sum8906 ...  98_I Rem, non^ ... 88_sum18 ... 85_syed ...

 82_MrM ... 81_pSL ... 80_shil, kold ... 79.1_all data ... 79_snow ... 75_PG, godb, Don, J10 ... 74.5_bobd, Reef ...

 73_SF ...  72_jon ... 72.0__91-20 ... 70.5__93-22 ... 70_WT,sunv,rwtwm ... 69_cm ...  68_Jeff, WxObs ...  67.3__81-10 ...

 66_NN ... 65_leo, Frig^ ... 63_Feb78 ... 60_cat,DR(S) ... 59_dww ... 58_PIT ... 57_Metw ...  56_mul, Moor, MIA ... 55_sea^

 52_Ste, Feb91, dave, Matt^ ... 50_Earth, Meth, B87 ... 49_EG, Norr ... 48_sb ... 45_dan^ ... 44_Map ...

__________________

48 on time forecasts, plus five marked one day late ^, 53 total __  consensus (median) 68.0 mm

Edited July 1, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Late forecasts will be added to table until end of 3rd of July when absolute deadline for entries passes. 

Will be checking the table as I found it a bit difficult to follow all the changes and banter in the thread, check your entries. 

[Daniel*]

16.9C and 45mm thanks, I think this month will either end up much warmer than average or never really get going. I’m sort of going in the middle. 

[Frigid]

On 19/06/2023 at 23:23, Frigid said:

19.5C and 42mm. I'm done with predicting cooler than average months..

Bit late on this edit but oh well..

17.5C and 65mm. Thanks 

Edited July 1, 2023 by Frigid