July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[MattStoke]

19.2°C and 52mm.

[seaside 60]

Ahhh forgot.

18.2c

55mm

Please, thanks.

[Roger J Smith]

Most notable cool July between warm June and August summers

Just for some early entertainment before the GFS inevitably loses the plot and there is no cool July after all, here's a look at the few cases where July was below 16.5 and both June and August were warm (June above 14.8 and August above 16.8) ... they are unusual summers, only ten qualified and an eleventh was promoted as close enough, and then about a dozen more were considered near misses. Some of these qualifiers are rather subdued cases of what I was trying to find so not all of these summers probably seemed unusual. 1743 and 1842 are perhaps the most striking examples of a "cool middle" July with two warm months on either side.

 

YEAR _____ JUNE __ JULY __ AUG (CET) ___ Total qualifying margin (above 14.8, below 16.5, above 16.8)

1679 _____ 15.5 __ 16.0 __ 17.0 __________ 1.4 

1736 _____ 15.7 __ 16.4 __ 17.8 __________ 2.0

1743 _____ 15.6 __ 14.9 __ 16.9 __________ 2.5

1801 _____ 14.8 __ 16.1 __ 17.1 __________ 0.7

1835 _____ 15.0 __ 16.4 __ 16.9 __________ 0.4

1842 _____ 15.6 __ 14.5 __ 17.1 __________ 3.1

1857 _____ 15.8 __ 16.4 __ 17.4 __________ 1.7

1893 _____ 15.6 __ 16.4 __ 17.4 __________ 1.5

2000 _____ 14.9 __ 15.3 __ 16.7 __________ 1.3 (Aug given a pass although 0.1 below criterion, margin of error and rare recent example)

2004 _____ 15.3 __ 15.7 __ 17.6 __________ 2.1 

2020 _____ 15.3 __ 15.7 __ 17.7 __________ 2.2

 

_________________

near misses for criteria used ...

(1676 ____ 18.0 __ 16.0 __ 16.5) _ close to meeting the criteria and notably warm for June, as a Maunder year it may be within margin of error

(1706 ____ 15.6 __ 16.1 __ 16.7) _ for that early in the CET record, I would give this one a pass but it is a near miss

(1731 ____ 15.6 __ 16.3 __ 16.7) _ more or less same as 1706, borderline case. 

(1741 ____ 15.2 __ 15.6 __ 16.7) _ very close to qualifying, the August mean was 0.1 lower than criteria but July very cool. 

(1831 ____ 15.4 __ 16.7 __ 16.9) _ this one is borderline because July isn't quite cool enough, the other numbers are in range but August is weak too

(1846 ____ 18.2 __ 16.5 __ 16.6) _ July was not all that cool and August didn't warm up from it, but this summer of June's extreme warmth does almost qualify. 

(1936 ____ 14.7 __ 15.3 __ 16.1) _ Trying but not quite warm enough at either end to qualify.

(1942 ____ 14.4 __ 15.5 __ 16.6) _ very close to qualifying 

(1947 ____ very hot late May early June and most of August, but July also warm enough at 17.0 that it does not qualify and isn't really a "near miss")

(1953 ____ 14.4 __ 15.5 __ 16.2) _ similar to 1936

(1965 ____ 14.7 __ 14.0 __ 14.9) _ misses mainly due to August staying rather cold, but certainly the right signal from July

(1970 ____ 16.4 __ 15.2 __ 16.0) _ August does not qualify but this was quite a strong signal anyway. 

(1973 ____ 14.8 __ 15.6 __ 16.5) _ borderline just misses qualifying

(2009 ____ 14.7 __ 16.3 __ 16.7) _ all three months just miss criteria

===================

There are of course plenty of cases of August being a lot warmer than July but they are excluded here if June is much below mid-14s. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Sorry I'm late. 16.7c please.

[noname_weather]

Sorry, I forgot June has 30 days

15.6C and 98mm

[Roger J Smith]

July CET 1981-2010 averages, and extremes 1772-2022 with running CET extremes

This table now converted to v2.0.1.0 data.

 

date _ CET _ (cum) ____ Max, Min 1772-2022 ________ Running CET extremes 1772-2022 __ 1991-2020 daily, cum

01 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.7 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773) _____ 24.7 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773) _______ 16.4 ____ 16.4

02 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.3 (1821) _____ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907) _______ 16.2 ____ 16.3

03 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.4 (1976) __ 10.1 (1907) _____ 23.3 (1976) __ 10.8 (1907) _______ 16.3 ____ 16.3

04 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 ___ 24.5 (1976) __ 10.0 (1965) _____ 23.6 (1976) __ 11.1 (1907) _______ 16.5 ____ 16.4

05 __ 16.3 __ 16.0 ___ 24.0 (1852) __11.2 (1816,1920) __ 23.6 (1976) __ 11.4 (1907) _______16.5 ____ 16.4

06 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 ___ 23.2 (1976) __ 11.3 (1877) _____ 23.6 (1976) __ 11.5 (1907) _______ 16.2 ____ 16.4

07 __ 16.2 __ 16.1 ___ 22.7 (1923) __ 11.1 (1877) _____ 23.4 (1976) __ 11.5 (1907) _______ 16.2 ____ 16.3

08 __ 16.5 __ 16.1 ___ 21.4 (1870) __ 10.6 (1823) _____ 23.1 (1976) __ 11.4 (1907) _______ 16.2 ____ 16.3

09 __ 16.2 __ 16.1 ___ 21.6 (1921) __ 11.0 (1856) _____ 22.7 (1976) __ 11.5 (1907) _______ 16.4 ____ 16.3

10 __ 16.5 __ 16.2 ___ 22.2 (1921) __ 11.1 (1993) _____ 22.1 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907) _______ 16.5 ____ 16.3

11 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 ___ 22.6 (1783) ___ 9.0 (1888) _____ 21.9 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907) _______ 16.3 ____ 16.3

12 __ 16.4 __ 16.2 ___ 23.6 (1923) __ 11.0 (1840) _____ 21.7 (1976) __ 11.7 (1907) _______ 16.2 ____ 16.3

13 __ 16.5 __ 16.2 ___ 24.5 (1808) __ 10.2 (1840) _____ 21.5 (1976) __ 11.7 (1907) _______ 16.2 ____ 16.3

14 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 ___ 24.4 (1808) __ 11.7 (1961) _____ 21.2 (1976) __ 12.1 (1907) _______ 16.5 ____ 16.3

15 __ 16.9 __ 16.3 ___ 23.7 (1825) __ 11.4 (1883) _____ 21.0 (1976) __ 12.5 (1879) _______ 16.6 ____ 16.3

16 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 ___ 22.5 (2003) __ 11.5 (1823) _____ 20.8 (1976) __ 12.5 (1879) _______ 17.0 ____ 16.4

17 __ 16.2 __ 16.3 ___ 22.3 (1834) __ 11.2 (1892) _____ 20.6 (1976) __ 12.6 (1879) _______ 16.8 ____ 16.4

18 __ 16.5 __ 16.3 ___ 24.4 (2022) __ 10.1 (1863) _____ 20.4 (1976) __ 12.8 (1879) _______ 17.0 ____ 16.4

19 __ 16.9 __ 16.4 ___ 28.1 (2022) __ 10.6 (1892) _____ 20.4 (1976) __ 12.9 (1879) _______ 17.5 ____ 16.5

20 __ 17.1 __ 16.4 ___ 23.6 (2016) ___ 8.7 (1836) _____ 20.1 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879) _______ 17.2 ____ 16.5

21 __ 16.8 __ 16.4 ___ 23.1 (1868) __ 11.3 (1902) _____ 19.9 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879) _______ 16.6 ____ 16.5

22 __ 16.8 __ 16.4 ___ 23.1 (1868) __ 11.4 (1902) _____ 19.7 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879) _______ 17.1 ____ 16.6

23 __ 16.8 __ 16.5 ___ 22.6 (2019) __ 10.1 (1843) _____ 19.6 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879) _______ 17.5 ____ 16.6

24 __ 16.6 __ 16.5 ___ 23.9 (1818) __ 11.1 (1843) _____ 19.6 (2006) __ 13.2 (1879) _______ 17.3 ____ 16.6

25 __ 17.0 __ 16.5 ___ 25.3 (2019) __ 11.2 (1920) _____ 19.7 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879) _______ 17.5 ____ 16.7

26 __ 17.2 __ 16.5 ___ 23.3 (2006) __ 11.0 (1884) _____ 19.9 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879) _______ 17.5 ____ 16.7

27 __ 17.1 __ 16.5 ___ 22.7 (2018) __ 10.6 (1867) _____ 19.9 (2006) __ 13.2 (1879) _______ 17.5 ____ 16.7

28 __ 17.3 __ 16.6 ___ 23.7 (1948) __ 11.6 (1886) _____ 19.9 (2006) __13.3 (1879) _______ 17.1 ____ 16.8

29 __ 17.6 __ 16.6 ___ 25.1 (1948) __ 11.0 (1816) _____ 19.9 (2006) __ 13.4 (1879) _______ 17.4 ____ 16.8

30 __ 17.3 __ 16.6 ___ 23.1 (1948) __ 10.6 (1786) _____ 19.9 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816) _______ 17.2 ____ 16.8

31 __ 17.1 __ 16.63 __ 23.8 (2020) __ 10.9 (1841) _____19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816) _______ 17.4 ____ 16.80

______________________________________________ 

1981-2010 and 1991-2020 were 0.1 above indicated averages in CET legacy (rounded to one decimal)

also very cool running means for late July in 1802 (often 0.1 above 1879 and 1816) _ 13.2 22-24 July 1802

highest 1983 running mean was 19.9 on 17th, 2018 (after first few days in 20s) was 19.4 after 16 days and 19.5 after 27 days.

1826 was running 20.4 on 6th and 7th and 1808 was 18.8 on 19th, 1852 was 19.7 on 9th and again on 16th (finished 18.7).

[Summer Sun]

17.4c to the 1st

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

A cool 3-4 days ahead in the CET zone after a rather cool one today, should bring an appreciable drop to the CET. By Friday a warm up expected, both will probably cancel each other out, meaning we are likely to be close to the mean at the end of the first 10 days. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP first projection from GFS is around 50 mm by 18th, some pockets of heavy rain expected in west and northwest, blending with larger areas around 30-40, and not much fell so far. 

[Summer Sun]

16.0c to the 2nd

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Deleted

Edited July 4, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Summer Sun]

15.3c to the 3rd

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[Daniel*]

14.6C the high at Pershore today - very cool indeed. 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Daniel*

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

14.6C the high at Pershore today - very cool indeed. 

Yes a notably cool day max temp wise.. Many a warmer October day. We have very cold air above for the time of year.  CET will take a knock as a result, a warm up Thursday will cancel things out. 

Edited July 4, 2023 by damianslaw

[Frigid]

The record breaking warm SST's didn't really prevent the cool weather, in fact it's actually cooler than I expected with nights quite chilly. 

First week looks like a mixed bag, Friday to Sunday looks pretty warm but also volatile.. could see some intense storms about. This has certainly been the stormiest first half to Summer I've ever experienced. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

20 minutes ago, Frigid said:

The record breaking warm SST's didn't really prevent the cool weather, in fact it's actually cooler than I expected with nights quite chilly. 

First week looks like a mixed bag, Friday to Sunday looks pretty warm but also volatile.. could see some intense storms about. This has certainly been the stormiest first half to Summer I've ever experienced. 

 Think the cloud cover next week should keep the CET relatively stable and with the westerly type of wind we have the CET should remain static.    

Edited July 4, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

10 hours ago, Frigid said:

The record breaking warm SST's didn't really prevent the cool weather, in fact it's actually cooler than I expected with nights quite chilly. 

First week looks like a mixed bag, Friday to Sunday looks pretty warm but also volatile.. could see some intense storms about. This has certainly been the stormiest first half to Summer I've ever experienced. 

It makes a nice change from last July’s (continuing from June) incessant heat!

Edited July 5, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[reef]

A cool day yesterday in places, but probably not as low as you'd think when the CET figure comes in as many places will have been warmer by 0900 this morning. (Max temp is 0900 on the day to 0900 the next day).

This is why low maximums aren't as common in the figures as cool days in reality at this time of the year.

[Daniel*]

13 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Yes a notably cool day max temp wise.. Many a warmer October day. We have very cold air above for the time of year.  CET will take a knock as a result, a warm up Thursday will cancel things out. 

And a cool night

 

[reef]

14.9C to the 4th.

Yesterday came in at 14.0C. The mean max was 16.4C, mean min 11.5C.

[Summer Sun]

14.9c to the 4th

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

[summer blizzard]

Outlook should deliver a gradual rise from Friday, after the short heat spurt we see a period of south westerlies which will keep minima somewhat high next week.

[Roger J Smith]

Looking back, 60 years (of the period 1772-2022) were cooler than or equal to 2023 on 4th of July, here's the list ending with 14.0 in 2023 ...

... the frequency drops off around 1900 and picks up briefly again in the 1960s which had a run of very cool 4th of July days including the record low ...

 

Rank ____ Year ____ CET 4th July

_01 _____ 1965 ___ 10.0

_02 _____ 1813 ___ 10.8

_03 _____ 1809 ___ 11.3

_04 _____ 1978 ___ 11.7

_05 _____ 1954 ___ 11.8

_t06 ___ 1823,1879 ___ 12.0

_08 _____ 1910 ___ 12.1

_09 _____ 1907 ___ 12.2

_10 _____ 1968 ___ 12.3

_t11 __ 1812,1829,1851,1890,1919,1962 ___ 12.4

_17 _____ 1816 ___ 12.5

_18 _____ 1821 ___ 12.6

_t19 ___ 1964,1990 ___ 12.7

_t21 ___ 1802,1820 ___ 12.8

_t23 ___ 1864,1877,1922 ___ 12.9

_t26 ___ 1898,1940,1948,1974 ___ 13.0

_30 _____ 1928 ___ 13.1

_31 _____ 1850 ___ 13.2

_t32 ___ 1861,1875 ___ 13.3

_t34 ___ 1796,1849,1860,1900,1920,1982,2002 ___ 13.5

_t41 ___ 1810,1895,1988 ___ 13.6

_t44 ___ 1817,1824,1904,1921,1924 ___ 13.7

_t49 ___ 1871,1878,1914,1938, 1950,1997 ___ 13.8

_t55 _____ 1995,1996 ___ 13.9

_t57 __ 1777,1790,1795,1963,2023 ___ 14.0

 

[Don]

4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Outlook should deliver a gradual rise from Friday, after the short heat spurt we see a period of south westerlies which will keep minima somewhat high next week.

Only so long it can stay below average!

[damianslaw]

Based on current model output, I suspect we won't be far off the average by mid month. Second half probably still likely to be above but perhaps early signs not to the extent some forecasts were going for..