July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Indeed it is @Don.    

[Scorcher]

A truly awful summer month here that was not quite as bad statistically as you might expect. I think the figures are misleading because that random hot Friday (7th) boosted the sunshine with 13.7 hours that day. Other than that, not one day managed to breach the 10 hour mark- in fact the second sunniest day was the 19th with only 8.3 hours.

It felt worse than 2020 here although it has just pipped it in terms of sunshine (105.9 hours to 95.4).

One thing that has been noticeable has been just how incredibly dark it has been- the light levels have been truly shocking for the middle of summer. That is one thing that the sunshine stats don't show. Cloudy days aren't always dark and dismal but this month they invariably have been. It's been that heavy, low cloud that has just made it incredibly dark feeling. Impossible to measure but it's got to be one of the darkest summer months I can remember in terms of light levels. Extremely depressing.

August 2008 is a case in point- an extremely cloudy month that wasn't nearly as dark as this one as the cloud tended to be higher.

Needless to say it's also been incredibly wet and very difficult to plan any outdoor activities as a result.

Rostherne statistics:

Sunshine hours: 105.9

Rainfall: 159mm

Average Max: 20.1C

Average Min: 12.1C

One to forget- surely August can't be as bad as July? I could never have predicted we'd get such a shocker after that stunning June.

Edited August 1, 2023 by Scorcher

[Roger J Smith]

Sorry I am a bit late to the party, different time zone etc ... my table will be edited to show CET results from 16.1. Only the top two scores and the three values lower than 16.1 will need to be updated along with any collateral damage nearby to those three as they move up a bit. 

EWP looks to be around 128 mm. Will confirm tomorrow. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finished on 16C -0.4C below average so basically average. 163mm of rain 255.1% of normal.  So a soggy month but not a cool one.

[Don]

3 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Indeed it is @Don.    

I see what you mean now!  Strange as I'm certain the July 61-90 average was 16.1C?!  They must have revised it?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I see what you mean now!  Strange as I'm certain the July 61-90 average was 16.1C?!  They must have revised it?

They did on the newer version.   

[Don]

Just now, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

They did on the newer version.   

Right ok.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker ends at 129.6 mm. Will wait for final value posted on 5th (or later) to adjust scoring (average error will be slightly affected). Will also post the current EWP standings already available back in the thread, at that time. 

[Bobd29]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP tracker ends at 129.6 mm. Will wait for final value posted on 5th (or later) to adjust scoring (average error will be slightly affected). Will also post the current EWP standings already available back in the thread, at that time. 

Think I may have been a tad low, lol.

[J10]

PDF Summaries July 2023 Summary.pdf July 2023 Summary Overall.pdf

Excel July 2023 CET.xlsx

Monthly
Just the one spot on entry this month. I remember Atlantic 252

Summer Sun (0.1c) and Dancerwithwings (0.3c) complete the top 3.

Seasonal

Big Changes in the seasonal Competition.

The top 3
Dancerwithwings 1st (from 4th)
Summer Sun 2nd (from 11th)
jonboy 3rd (unchanged)

Overall

The top 6 last month remains the same but with some ordering changes.

Summer Sun 1st (from 6th)
Leo97t 2nd (from 1st)
DR(S)NO 3rd (from 2nd)
Metwatch 4th (from 5th)
reef is 5th (from 3rd)
The PIT is 6th (from 4th)

[Roger J Smith]

Analysis of scoring for recent normals and our consensus

 

_________________________________ Forecasts _______________ Errors ___________ Rank _______ 

"Robot" Forecaster _________ CET ___ EWP ___________ CET __ EWP ____ CET __ EWP 

1981-2010 average DEC ___ 4.5 ____ 97.4 ____________ +1.1 __-4.6 _____ 55 ___ 2.3

1981-2010 average JAN ___ 4.4 _____ 93.0 ____________ -0.8 __ -4.8 _____ 40 ___ 18.5

1981-2010 average FEB ___ 4.4 _____ 66.5 ___________ -2.1 __ +52.5 ____ 40 ___ 37.0

1981-2010 average MAR ___6.6 _____ 71.5 ___________ -0.4 __ -65.3 _____13 ___17.2

1981-2010 average APR ___ 8.5 _____ 64.8 ___________ -0.2 __ -12.1 _____11 ___ 23.2

1981-2010 average MAY __11.7 _____ 63.6 ___________ -0.8 __+20.1 _____50 ___ 24.6

1981-2010 average JUN ___14.4 _____ 66.3 ___________-2.6 __+16.3 _____44 ___ 44.2

1981-2010 average JUL____16.6 _____ 67.3 ___________+0.5 __-62.2 ______ 6 ___ 28.4

----------------

1991-2020 average DEC ___ 4.8 ____103.6 ____________ +1.4 __+1.6 _____ 63 ___ 0.4

1991-2020 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 94.2 _____________ -0.5 __ -3.6 _____ 28 ___ 17.8

1991-2020 average FEB ___ 5.0 _____ 72.4 _____________ -1.5 __ 58.4 ____ 39 ___ 40.3

1991-2020 average MAR ___6.7 _____ 65.4 _____________ -0.3 __-71.4 ____11 ___ 30.6

1991-2020 average APR ___ 9.0 _____ 63.2 _____________ +0.3 __-13.7 ____16 ___ 25.1

1991-2020 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 62.7 ______________-0.6 __ 19.2 ____42 ___ 21.1

1991-2020 average JUN ___ 14.6 ____ 70.5 ______________ -2.4 __20.5 ____ 50 ___ 47.2

1991-2020 average JUL ____16.8 ____ 72.0 ______________ +0.7__-57.5_____10 ___ 22.0

---------------

1992-2021 average DEC ___ 4.9 ____105.5 _____________ +1.5 __+3.5 _____ 65 ___ 0.9

1993-2022 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 95.4 _____________ -0.5 __ -2.4 _____ 28 ___ 13.5

1993-2022 average FEB ___ 5.1 _____ 74.9 _____________-1.4 __ +60.5 ____ 36 ___ 41.4

1993-2022 average MAR ___ 6.7 _____63.6 _____________-0.3 __ -73.2 ____ 11 ___ 32.7

1993-2022 average APR ____8.9 _____59.8 _____________ +0.2 __-17.1 ____ 11 ___ 32.2

1993-2022 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 66.6 _____________ -0.6 ___ 23.1 ____ 42 ___ 29.8

1993-2022 average JUN ____14.7 ____ 69.5 _____________-2.3 ___ 19.5 ____ 49 ___ 45.8

1991-2020 average JUL ____ 16.9 ____ 70.5 ____________ +0.8 __ -59.0_____ 14 ___ 22.7

-----------------

consensus DEC ____________ 3.5 ____ 63.0 ______________ +0.1 __-39.0 _____ 04 __ 39.0

consensus JAN _____________5.1 ____ 99.5 _______________-0.1 __ +1.7 _____ 1.5 __ 5.9

consensus FEB ____________ 5.4 ____ 65.0 _______________-1.1 __ +51.0 ____ 29 ___ 31.0

consensus MAR ___________ 5.9 ____ 67.0 _______________-1.1 __ -69.8 ____ 27 ___ 25.0

consensus APR ____________ 9.0 ____ 65.0 _______________+0.3 __-11.9 ____ 16 ___ 20

consensus MAY ____________12.3 ___ 65.0 _______________-0.2 __ 21.5 _____ 23 ___ 25

consensus JUN _____________15.4 ___ 50.0 _______________-1.6 __ +1.2 _____26 ___ 11

consensus JUL ______________17.6 ___ 68.0 ______________ +1.5 __-61.5 ____ 30 ___ 27

=======================

1981-2010 mean of 8 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.06 __29.74 ___ 32 ___24.4

1991-2020 mean of 8 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.96 __30.74 ___ 32 ___25.5

1993-2022 mean of 8 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.95 __32.29 ___ 32 ___27.4

consensus mean of 8 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________ 0.75 _ 32.20 ___ 20 __ 23.0

(note mean of errors is mean of absolute errors, not actual errors)

(mean of actual errors is "bias" of forecasts and is around -0.6 for normals, and is currently -0.38 for our consensus, meaning on average our consensus forecasts were 0.38 below outcomes ... it's a different measure of consensus being better compared to normals).

-----------------------------------------------------------------

ANALYSIS: Our consensus took a bit of a downturn compared to recent normals in July, but overall our CET forecast consensus is considerably better than the normals. EWP consensus scores are not significantly better or worse compared to recent normals.  

Average consensus error of 0.75 deg is better than most full-time contest entrants except for top nine, eight of whom are lower (range 0.57 to 0.74). One other ranked player has a lower average error but has missed two contests. So 0.75 ranks either 9th or 10th. The average errors for the three normals are closer to the 26-35 range in the contest. 1993-2022 (0.95) would rank t-26th among frequent entrants.

Despite larger errors, EWP ranks overall are better than implied by average monthly ranks, both consensus and all three normals are scoring better than most outside the top five in EWP. When comparing average ranks, it should be kept in mind that there are usually 7-10 forecasters going "CET only" so that an average rank of 32 in CET is probably almost equivalent to an average rank of 25 in EWP. 

Edited August 4, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Weather-history]

On 02/08/2023 at 09:37, Roger J Smith said:

EWP tracker ends at 129.6 mm. Will wait for final value posted on 5th (or later) to adjust scoring (average error will be slightly affected). Will also post the current EWP standings already available back in the thread, at that time. 

A downward correction.

Put down as 121.3mm

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP as noted above has been revised to 121.3 mm. This won't change scoring other than to adjust some details of average error ranking. I will post a revised summary of scoring in a while, as I am just getting up here at 0800h in my time zone. I noticed also that the June EWP was revised up to 49.3 mm close to where it had been before they revised that one down at end of June. There is a three month period where EWP values can be adjusted before they settle in at permanent table values but for our contest I only take the first revision made on 5th of month following. 

[Roger J Smith]

Updated EWP scoring for annual, July and summer seasonal ranks

July finished on 121.3 mm. Scoring is adjusted from the earlier report for average error and ranks. Seasonal scoring details are added.

 

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ________ n ___ TOTAL PTS ____ AVG ERROR (rank)*__ July fcst, score (rank)

_01 __ 02 ___ snowray ______________8 ___ 57.87 _________ 25.23 ( 3 ) _ ( 3 ) ____ 79.0 __ 7.66 (13) 

_02 __ 01 ___ Leo97t _______________ 8 ___ 56.25 _________ 25.04 ( 2 ) _ ( 1 ) ____ 65.0 __ 4.56 (29) 

_03 __ 03 ___ Reef __________________8 ___ 54.87 _________ 26.66 ( 5 ) _ ( 4 ) ____ 74.5 __ 6.61 (19)

_04 __ 05 ___ February1978 ________8 ___ 49.54 _________ 29.66 (14) _ ( 7 ) ____ 63.0 __ 4.18 (30)+

_05 __ 19 ___ Summer Shower______7 ___ 48.73 _________ 25.56 ( 4 ) _ (13) ____103.0 __ 9.62 (3)

_06 __ 04 ___ Mulzy _________________8 ___ 48.72 _________ 29.71 (15) _ ( 5 ) ____ 56.0 __ 2.85 (38)

_07 __ 14 ___ bobd29 _______________8 ___ 48.51 _________ 28.43 (11) _ ( 8 ) ____ 74.5 __ 6.71 (18)

_08 __ 06 ___ DR(S)NO ______________8 ___ 48.13 _________ 30.49 (17) _ ( 9 ) ____ 60.0 __ 3.70 (34)

_09 __ 21 ___ virtualsphere _________8 ___ 47.93 _________ 29.31 (12) _ (25) ____103.0 __ 9.52 (4)

_10 __ 18 ___prolongedSnowLover _8 ___ 47.77 _________ 27.00 ( 8 ) _ ( 6 ) ____ 81.0 ___8.04 (11)

_11 __ 16 ___ jonboy _______________ 8 ___ 47.56 _________ 30.44 (16) _ (15) ____ 72.0 __ 6.14 (21)

_12 __ 12 ___ Weather Observer ___ 8 ___ 47.12 _________ 31.04 (19) _ (16) ____ 68.0 __ 5.04 (27)

_13 __ 17 ___ Stationary Front ______8 ___ 47.07 _________ 29.44 (13) _ (12) ____ 73.0 __ 6.33 (20)

_14 __ 15 ___ Jeff C _________________ 8 ___ 46.60 _________ 32.21 (22) _ (21) ____ 68.0 __ 5.14 (26)

_15 __ 09 ___ Midlands Ice Age _____8 ___ 45.81 _________ 33.91 (30) _ (22) ____ 56.0 __ 2.65 (40)

_16 __ 10 ___ dancerwithwings _____8 ___ 45.63 _________ 33.94 (31) _ (23) ____ 59.0 __ 3.42 (35)

_17 __ 22 ___ J 10 ___________________8 ___ 45.37 _________ 30.59 (18) _  (17) ____ 75.0 __ 7.17 (17)

_t18__ 24 ___ Polar Gael ___________ 8 ___ 45.36 _________ 32.98 (26) _ (27) ____ 75.0 __ 7.47 (14)

_t18__ 08 ___ Feb1991Blizzard _____8 ___ 45.36 _________ 31.84 (20) _ (10) ____ 52.0 __ 1.99 (42)+

_20 __ 07 ___ Emmett Garland _____ 8 ___ 44.33 _________ 32.34 (23) _ (11) ____ 49.0 __ 0.76 (49)

_21 __ 23 ___ Wold Topper _________ 8 ___ 43.95 _________ 32.91 (25) _ (24) ____ 70.0 __ 5.94 (22)

_22 __ 13 ___ seaside60 ____________ 8 ___ 43.82 _________ 35.36 (33) _ (26) ____ 55.0 __ 1.98 (43) v

_23 __ 26 ___ I Remember Atl252 ___7 ___ 42.45 _________ 27.60 ( 9 ) _ (19) ____ 98.0 __ 9.05 (6)

_24 __ 11 ___ Mapantz ______________8 ___ 42.18 _________ 34.34 (32) _ (18) ____ 44.0 __ 0.00 (53)

_25 __ 32 ___ summer8906 _________6 ___ 40.68 _________ 21.33 ( 1 ) _  ( 2 ) ____100.0 __ 9.24 (5)

_26 __ 35 ___ Roger J Smith _________8 ___ 40.55 _________ 28.13 (10) _ (31) ____120.8 __10.00 (1)

_27 __ 33 ___ noname_weather_____8 ___ 40.45 _________ 32.59 (24) _ (38) ____ 98.0 __ 8.65 (7) v

_28 __ 27 ___ Don __________________ 8 ___ 40.18 _________ 33.71 (29) _ (29) ____ 75.0 __ 7.27

_29 __ 20 ___ daniel* _______________ 8 ___ 38.68 _________ 37.48 (36) _ (28) ____ 45.0 __ 0.10 (52) v

_30 __ 36 ___ summer18 ___________ 8 ___ 37.94 _________ 33.34 (27) _ (35) ____ 88.0 __ 8.64 (8)

_31 _ t41 ___ Weather26 ____________7 ___ 36.19 _________ 26.27 ( 6 ) _ (20) ____112.0 __9.81 (2)

_32 __ 38 ___ shillitocettwo _________ 8 ___ 35.37 _________ 42.94 (46) _ (51) ____ 80.0 __ 7.85 (12)

_33 __ 28 ___ davehsug _____________8 ___ 34.42 _________ 37.71 (39) _ (34) ____ 52.0 __ 1.89 (44)

_34 __ 40 ___ Godber 1 _____________ 8 ___ 34.15 _________ 37.66 (38) _(t41) ____ 75.0 __ 7.37 (15)

_35 __ 34 ___ The PIT _______________ 8 ___ 33.83 _________ 39.79 (42)_ (t41) ____ 58.0 __ 3.23 (36)

_36 __ 29 ___ Methuselah __________ 8 ___ 33.63 _________ 38.96 (41) _ (39) ____ 50.0 __ 1.23 (47)

_37 __ 25 ___ DiagonalRedLine _____ 6 ___ 33.52 _________ 33.52 (28) _ (37) ____ no fcst

_38 __ 44 ___ Mr Maunder __________8 ___ 33.11 _________ 38.21 (40) _ (45) ____ 82.0 __ 8.23 (10)

_t39__ 30 ___ Norrance _____________8 ___ 32.65 _________ 37.56 (37) _ (33) ____ 49.0 __ 0.66 (50)

_t39__ 45 ___ syed2878 _____________8 ___ 32.65 _________ 40.81 (45) _ (48) ____ 85.0 __ 8.42 (9)

_41 __ t41 ___ rwtwm _______________ 8 ___ 32.12 _________ 39.96 (43) _ (46) ____ 70.0 __ 5.74 (24)

_42 __ 31 ___ freeze _________________5 ___ 31.95 _________ 31.92 (21) _ (30) ____ no fcst

_43 __ 37 ___ stewfox _______________ 5 ___ 29.13 _________ 27.44 ( 7 ) _ (14) ____ no fcst

_44 __ 39 ___ SLEETY ________________ 7 ___ 27.10 _________ 35.57 (34) _ (40) ____ no fcst

_45 __ 43 ___ Cymro _________________4 ___ 26.11 _________ 36.88 (---) _  (43) ____ no fcst

_46 __ 48 ___ Neil N __________________7 ___ 26.03 _________ 40.10 (44) _ (44) ____ 66.0 __ 4.75 (28)

_47 __ 47 ___ Moorlander ___________ 8 ___ 24.51 _________ 45.34 (49) _ (50) ____ 56.0 __ 2.75 (39)

_48 __ 46 ___ summer blizzard ______8 ___ 24.35 _________ 45.16 (48) _ (47) ____ 48.0 __ 0.38 (51)

_49 __ 50 ___ Frigid __________________8 ___ 23.79 _________ 49.24 (51) _ (55) ____ 65.0 __ 4.16 (31) v

_50 __ 49 ___ SteveB _________________8 ___ 22.74 _________ 45.36 (50) _ (49) ____ 52.0 __ 2.09 (41)+

_51 __ 51 ___ Metwatch ______________7 ___ 22.15 _________ 51.93 (53) _ (56) ____ 57.0 __ 3.04 (37)

_52 __ 56 ___ sunny_vale ____________ 5 ___ 19.99 _________ 37.04 (35) _ (37) ____ 70.0 __ 5.84 (23)

_53 __ 52 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather _____5 ___ 19.01 _________ 44.90 (47) _ (53) ____ no fcst

_54 __ 53 ___ Blast From the Past ____4 ___ 18.63 _________ 44.13 (---) _ (52) ____ no fcst

_55 __ 58 ___ catbrainz _______________4 ___ 17.74 _________ 46.45 ( --- ) _ (---) ____ 60.0 __ 3.80 (33)

_56 __ 60 ___ chilly milly ______________8 ___ 17.48 _________ 56.75 (54) _ (57) ____ 69.0 __ 5.34 (25)

_57 __ 55 ___ B87 _____________________3 ___ 17.25 __________27.77 (---) _ (---) ____ 50.0 __ 1.13 (48)

_58 __ 54 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers _4 _17.04 _________ 32.58 (---) _ (32) ____ no fcst

_59 __ 59 ___ Earthshine ______________6 ___ 15.03 _________ 49.97 (52) _ (54) ____ 50.0 __ 1.33 (46)

_60 __ 57 ___ Let It Snow! _____________3 ___ 14.06 _________ 51.47 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_67 __ --- ___ kold weather ____________1 ____ 7.75 _________ 41.30 (---) _ (---) ____ 80.0 __ 7.75 (13)

_87 __ --- ___ mattstoke _______________1 ____ 1.49 _________ 69.30 (---) _ (---) ____ 52.0 __ 1.49 v

=========================

(3.9) _(5.8) __ Consensus ______________8 ___ 49.75 _________ 31.15 (19.1) (16.2) __ 68.0 __ 5.14 (t26)

(14.8)(16.4) _ 1981-2010 average _____ 8 ___ 45.93 _________ 28.84 (10.0) _(6.3) __ 67.3 __ 4.80 (27.4)

(24.1)(24,1) _ 1991-2020 average _____ 8 ___ 43.44 _________ 29.84 (14.2)  (13.5) __ 72.0 __ 6.14 (t21)

______________________________

SUMMER SEASONAL SCORING (2 of 3 months) _ all entrants (Consensus, normals shown in position to right)

Rank _ FORECASTER _________________ Points ___ Avg err

01 __ I Remember Atlantic252 _______ 17.81 ____ 12.90

02 __ snowray ________________________17.66 ____ 21.40

03 __ Reef ____________________________ 15.93 ____ 23.90

04 __ noname_weather ______________ 15.89 ____ 13.90

05 __ shillitocettwo ___________________15.19 ____ 22.90

06 __ J 10 _____________________________ 15.07 ____ 24.90

07 __ virtualsphere ___________________14.58 ____ 14.40

08 __ Summer Shower ________________14.49 ____ 15.40

09 __ Wold Topper ____________________14.04 ____ 27.40

10 __ Leo97t __________________________13.80 ____ 28.90

11 __ Don _____________________________13.27 ____ 27.40 _________ Consensus 13.24 (28.40)

12 __ Roger J Smith ___________________ 13.16 _____8.80

13 __ Metwatch _______________________13.04 ____ 32.40

14 __ dancerwithwings _______________ 12.28 ____ 32.40

15 __ Mr Maunder ____________________ 12.15 ____ 26.90

16 __ Midlands Ice Age ________________12.08 ____ 33.30

17 __ Polar Gael _______________________11.95 ____ 29.90

18 __ Stationary Front ________________ 11.77 ____ 28.90

19 __ Mulzy ___________________________ 11.51 ____ 33.90

t20__ NeilN ___________________________ 10.95 ____ 31.90

t20__ February1978 __________________ 10.95 ____ 32.40

22 __ ProlongedSnowLover __________ 10.82 ____ 29.10

23 __ Weather26 ______________________10.42 ____ 18.90

24 __ summer 18 _____________________ 10.32 ____ 26.40

25 __ The PIT __________________________10.00 ____ 34.90

26 __ seaside60 ________________________ 9.98 ____ 34.90

27 __ Jonboy ___________________________ 9.87 ____ 32.40

28 __ DR(S)NO _________________________ 9.80 ____ 34.90

29 __ JeffC ______________________________9.72 ____ 33.40

30 __ Weather Observer _______________9.62 ____ 33.40

31 __ syed2878 ________________________ 9.58 ____ 29.90

32 __ rwtwm ___________________________ 9.37 ____ 33.40

33 __ Godber1 _________________________ 9.26 ____ 32.70

t34__ daniel* ___________________________9.24 ____ 38.90

t34__ summer8906 ____________________ 9.24 ____ 21.30 (July only)

36 __ B87 _______________________________9.23 ____ 37.40

37 __ sunny vale _______________________ 9.19 ____ 33.90

38 __ stewfox __________________________ 8.86 _____ 2.50 (June only)

39 __ davehsug ________________________ 8.85 ____ 37.40

40 __ Feb1991Blizzard _________________ 8.38 ____ 38.40

41 __ bobd29 __________________________ 7.97 ____ 35.15

42 __ kold weather _____________________7.75 ____ 41.30 (July only)

43 __ Frigid _____________________________6.65 ____ 37.40 ____________ 1993-2022 7.32 (36.90)

44 __ Emmett Garland _________________ 6.20 ____ 40.90 ____________1991-2020 7.16 (36.65)

45 __ Mapantz _________________________ 6.20 ____ 42.90 ____________1981-2010 6.44 (36.90)

46 __ chilly milly ________________________5.34 ____ 46.90

47 __ Moorlander ______________________ 5.14 ____ 41.90

48 __ SLEETY ___________________________ 4.08 ____ 13.50 (June only)

49 __ Methuselah ______________________ 3.82 ____ 44.90

50 __ catbrainz _________________________ 3.80 ____ 61.30 (July only)

51 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ________________2.97 ____ 17.70 (June only)

52 __ SteveB ____________________________2.92 ____ 47.40

53 __ Norrance _________________________2.13 ____ 46.90

54 __ Earthshine _______________________ 1.72 ____ 54.90

55 __ mattstoke ________________________ 1.49 ____ 69.30 (July only)

56 __ Summer Blizzard _________________ 0.55 ____ 56.40

______________________________