July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

EWP now officially backs up scoring estimates, 117.0 for 27 days, probably 118 mm now, and will add 10-15 mm by end of month. Outside chance of 135 mm, which would rank 20th wettest all time. 130 ranks 22nd. 

CET 16.10 will likely stay close to that but could drift up to 16.2. From this two-decimal position it would need to average 16.9 to pass 16.15 into 16.2 range. 

[Roger J Smith]

CET and EWP order of finish from table of entries

*Table is ranked from final values of 16.1, 121.3 mm.  As usual, I jog ranks for CET for late entries, each one is one down from its error position. Ranks are also determined by order of entry. All CET scoring is official only after J 10 posts scoring summaries.

 

Rank __ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) ___ EWP rank ___ Combined

 

 

_01 ___ 16.1 _ 98.0 _ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 12 ) ____ 6 ____ 7 ____ tie best combined

_02 ___ 16.2 _ --- ---_ Summer Sun ( 18 ) _______________

_(02)     16.0 _ 79.1 _ Average of all data _______________(13.9)_(15.9) _ t5 best combined

_03 ___ 16.4 _ 59.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 19 ) ___________ 35 ____38 ____ 14th best combined

_04 ___ 16.5 _100.0_ summer8906 ( 11 ) ________________ 5 ____ 9 ____ 3rd best combined

_05 ___ 16.5 _ 66.0 _ NeilN ( 27 ) ________________________29 ____34 ____12th best combined 

_06 ___ 15.6 _120.8_ Roger J Smith ( 16 ) ________________1 ____ 7 ____ tie best combined

_07 ___ 16.6 _ 52.0 _ SteveB ( 26 ) _______________________42 ____49 ____t-17th best combined

_09 ___ 15.6 _ 98.0 _ noname_weather ( L1-6 ) __________7 ____ 16 ____t-5th best combined

_(06) __16.6 _ 67.3 _ Average 1981-2010 _______________(28.4) _(34.4) _ 12.1 best combined

_08 ___ 16.7 _ 72.0 _ jonboy ( 28 ) ______________________ 22 ____ 30 ____t-10th best combined

_11 ___ 16.7 _ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( L1-5 ) _______

_10 ___ 16.8 _103.0_ Summer Shower ( 9 ) ______________ 3 ____ 13 ____ 4th best combined

_12 ___ 15.4 _ 85.0 _ syed2878 ( 30 ) _____________________9 ____ 21 ____ 7th best combined

_13 ___ 16.8 _ 75.0 _ Godber1 ( 37 ) _____________________16 ____ 29 ____ 9th best combined

_(10) __16.8 _ 72.0 _ Average 1991-2020 _______________ (22) __(30) ____ 10.5 best combined

_14 ___ 16.9 _112.0_ Weather26 ( 3 ) _____________________2 ____ 16 ____t-5th best combined

_15 ___ 16.9 _ 81.0 _ ProlongedSnowLover ( 31 ) ________11 ____ 26 ____ 8th best combined

_17 ___ 16.9 _ 45.0 _ daniel* ( L1-1 ) _____________________52

_(14) __ 16.9 _ 70.5 _ Average 1993-2022 ________________(22.7) _ (36.7) _ 

_16 ___ 17.0 _ 79.0 _ snowray ( 49 ) ______________________14 ____ 30 ____t-10th best combined

_18 ___ 17.1 _ 69.0 _ chilly milly ( 5 ) _____________________ 26 ____ 44 ____ 16th best combined

_19 ___ 17.2 _ 60.0 _ catbrainz ( 6 ) _______________________34 ____ 53 ____t-19th best combined

_20 ___ 17.2 _ --- --- _ Kentish Man ( 54 ) __________________

_21 ___ 17.2 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 55 ) __________________

_22 ___ 17.3 _ 56.0 _ Mulzy ( 41 ) _________________________38 ____ 60 ____ t-25th best combined

_23 ___ 17.4 _ 52.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 42 ) ______________42

_24 ___ 17.4 _ 57.0 _ Metwatch ( 48 ) _____________________37

_25 ___ 17.5 _ 50.0 _ Methuselah ( 7 ) ___________________ 47

_26 ___ 17.5 _ --- ---_ Typhoon John ( 21 ) _________________

_27 ___ 17.5 _ 82.0 _ MrMaunder ( 35 ) __________________10 ____ 37 ____ 13th best combined

_29 ___ 17.5 _ 65.0 _ Frigid (L1-2 ) _______________________ 32

_28 ___ 17.6 _ 68.0 _ JeffC ( 23 ) __________________________27 ____ 55 ____ 21st best combined

_30 ___ 17.6 _ --- --- _damianslaw ( 32 ) ___________________

_31 ___ 17.6 _ 52.0 _ davehsug ( 46 ) ____________________44

_32 ___ 17.6 _ 63.0 _ February1978 ( 52 ) _______________ 31 

_33 ___ 17.6 _ 44.0 _ Mapantz ( 53 ) _____________________53

_(30) __ 17.6 _ 68.0 __ consensus _______________________(27)

_34 ___ 17.7 _ 74.5 _ bobd29 ( 4 ) _______________________ 19 ____ 53 ____t-19th best combined

_35 ___ 17.7 _ 88.0 _ Summer18 ( 14 ) ___________________ 8 ____ 43 ____ 15th best combined

_36 ___ 17.7 _ 70.0 _ sunny_vale ( 29 ) __________________24 ____ 60 ____ t-25th best combined

_37 ___ 17.7 _ 70.0 _ rwtwm ( 36 ) ______________________ 25

_38 ___ 17.7 _ 75.0 _ Don ( 45 ) __________________________17 ____ 55 ____ 22nd best combined

_39 ___ 17.7 _ 49.0 _ Norrance ( 50 ) ____________________50

_40 ___ 17.7 _ 75.0 _ J 10 ( 51 ) __________________________18 ____ 58 ____ 24th best combined

_41 ___ 17.8 _ 50.0 _ B87 ( 17 ) __________________________48

_42 ___ 17.8 _ --- ---_ Stretford End ( 20 ) ________________

_43 ___ 17.8 _ 80.0 _ kold weather ( 39 ) ________________13 ____ 56 ____ 23rd best combined

_44 ___ 17.8 _ 73.0 _ Stationary Front ( 43 ) ____________ 21

_45 ___ 17.9 _103.0_ virtualsphere ( 13 ) ________________ 4 ____ 49 ____ t-17th best combined

_46 ___ 17.9 _ 70.0 _ Wold Topper ( 22 ) ________________23

_47 ___ 17.9 _ 48.0 _ Summer Blizzard ( 25 ) ___________ 51

_48 ___ 17.9 _ 74.5 _ Reef ( 33 ) ________________________ 20

_49 ___ 17.9 _ 68.0 _ Weather Observer ( 38 ) __________28

_50 ___ 17.9 _ 56.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 47 ) ____________40

_51 ___ 18.0 _ 65.0 _ leo 97t ( 15 ) ______________________ 31

_52 ___ 18.0 _ 80.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 34 ) _______________ 12

_53 ___ 18.1 _ 50.0 _ Earthshine ( 1 ) ___________________ 46

_54 ___ 18.1 _ 56.0 _ Moorlander ( 44 ) _________________39

_56 ___ 18.2 _ 55.0 _ seaside60 ( L1-4 ) _________________41

_55 ___ 18.3 _ 60.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 40 ) ____________________34

_57 ___ 18.8 _ 58.0 _ The PIT ( 24 ) _____________________36

_58 ___ 19.2 _ 49.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 10 ) ___________49

_60 ___ 19.2 _ 52.0 _ Matt Stoke (L1-3 ) ________________45

_59 ___ 19.8 _ --- --- _ Blue_Skies_Do_I_See ( 2 ) ________

_61 ___ 20.0 _ 75.0 _ Polar Gael ( 8 ) ___________________15

 

EWP forecasts in order

 

120.8_RJS ... 112_wx26 ... 103_SumSh, virt ... 100_Sum8906 ...  98_I Rem, non^ ... 88_sum18 ... 85_syed ...

 82_MrM ... 81_pSL ... 80_shil, kold ... 79.1_all data ... 79_snow ... 75_PG, godb, Don, J10 ... 74.5_bobd, Reef ...

 73_SF ...  72_jon ... 72.0__91-20 ... 70.5__93-22 ... 70_WT,sunv,rwtwm ... 69_cm ...  68_Jeff, WxObs ...  67.3__81-10 ...

 66_NN ... 65_leo, Frig^ ... 63_Feb78 ... 60_cat,DR(S) ... 59_dww ... 58_PIT ... 57_Metw ...  56_mul, Moor, MIA ... 55_sea^

 52_Ste, Feb91, dave, Matt^ ... 50_Earth, Meth, B87 ... 49_EG, Norr ... 48_sb ... 45_dan^ ... 44_Map ...

__________________

 

 

Edited August 5, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

16.1c to the 29th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

16.1c to the 29th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

Think it's likely now to finish on 16.2 as @Roger J Smith highlighted.   Not too bad considering we've had a shortage of sunshine and a load of rain as well.   

[richie3846]

2 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Think it's likely now to finish on 16.2 as @Roger J Smith highlighted.   Not too bad considering we've had a shortage of sunshine and a load of rain as well.   

A remarkable month when we consider how much wind came from polar regions. Whilst it is tempting to assume that cold summer months are virtually impossible, I remember a few years back there was a cold anomaly in the sea near Greenland. If that anomaly was present during July 23, I suspect we would have had a very chilly month indeed.

[Roger J Smith]

Yes, CET probably on its way to 16.2 because that 16.1 for 29 days is close to 16.15 rounded down. The EWP last checked in at an estimated 119 to 120 mm and GFS says 5-8 mm grid average today. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, richie3846 said:

A remarkable month when we consider how much wind came from polar regions. Whilst it is tempting to assume that cold summer months are virtually impossible, I remember a few years back there was a cold anomaly in the sea near Greenland. If that anomaly was present during July 23, I suspect we would have had a very chilly month indeed.

I would describe July 23 as quite a humid kind of month if I'm brutally honest.    

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Think it's likely now to finish on 16.2 as @Roger J Smith highlighted.   Not too bad considering we've had a shortage of sunshine and a load of rain as well.   

Summer Sun got this then

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Indeed he did @I remember Atlantic 252and did it in style.    

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Indeed he did @I remember Atlantic 252and did it in style.    

whats number at the end? I'm on 12, SS on 18?

[Frigid]

1 hour ago, richie3846 said:

A remarkable month when we consider how much wind came from polar regions. Whilst it is tempting to assume that cold summer months are virtually impossible, I remember a few years back there was a cold anomaly in the sea near Greenland. If that anomaly was present during July 23, I suspect we would have had a very chilly month indeed.

If that warm spell didn't occur at the end of July 2020, then the CET could've been in the low 15s.. akin to the 2007-12 summers. I'm just surprised that we got away with a CET in the 16s with hardly any high maxes, highest here was only 25C.. crazy figure considering it's the lowest since 2007. Guess this month is the August 2008 of July's. 

[Don]

3 hours ago, Frigid said:

Guess this month is the August 2008 of July's. 

Yes, another month with warmish nights skewing the CET.  However, as other have alluded too, given the synoptics, this July should have been somewhat colder.  I suspect the reason is largely down to the warm North Atlantic?!

Edited July 30, 2023 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

6 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

whats number at the end? I'm on 12, SS on 18?

It's your order of entry (you were 12th to enter, Summer Sun was 18th), it only matters if you tie for error size, and just to be clear, the order at top may be the other way round, if today and tomorrow do not boost the final CET to 16.2, it's a tossup at present. We'll know (probably) on Tuesday. I am posting a bit ahead of the end of the contest as I expect to be pressed for time on 1st and 2nd, and this saves about 95% of the work time required then, I am lucky enough to have editing ability past the usual cutoff (because of all the statistical tables I post). 

[Snowyowl9]

On 28/07/2023 at 10:03, Weather-history said:

Wettest summer month since August 2020 now and if it surpasses that total, it will be the wettest since  June 2012.

Good grief that was exceptionally wet,A forgotten wet summer month I forgot about that one....

 

[richie3846]

Nights are currently 0.4c over the 61-90 mean, and days -0.1c under. Half a degree skewing with mild nights. In my view, that level of imbalance is not very large, though I don't know how many months in the CET have night temperatures more than 0.5c higher than the day temperatures, when compared with average. 

I personally don't think this month has been notably skewed with mild nights, given we are talking about half a degree. That may increase by the end of the month, but not by much at this stage. 

 

[Summer Sun]

16.1c to the 30th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

Outcome of CET still depends on today's reading, yesterday came in at 16.1 and that left the running average close to 16.14. Today looks like it may be a bit higher. About a 50-50 chance of either 16.1 or 16.2 appearing tomorrow as monthly average. 

[J10]

This months CET scores should be up Wednesday or Thursday.

[damianslaw]

Just a very poor July for any warmth. Consistently average with cold synoptics that should have brought much cooler means but the warm SSTs prevented it.

It has felt a below average month,but we look just to get away with an above average one 61-90 mean wise, but colder compared to more recent means.

Our max was 24 degrees, and the vast majority of days returned maxima 20 degrees or below, very poor for July. Exceptionally wet and dull makes it one if not poorest summer month since infamous June 2012 here.

Edited July 31, 2023 by damianslaw

[Relativistic]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt

July confirmed as 16.1°C.

[Don]

1 minute ago, Relativistic said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt

July confirmed as 16.1°C.

Bang on the 61-90 average then.

[damianslaw]

A very similiar month to July 2009 temp and rainfall and synoptic wise, though I suspect duller.

What are the rainfall and sunshine stats?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Relativistic said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt

July confirmed as 16.1°C.

Roger says still could be up to 16.2, which would be Summer Sun right on the dot 

Edited August 1, 2023 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Bang on the 61-90 average then.

In actual fact @Don 0.2 above what you have suggested.  

[Don]

1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

In actual fact @Don 0.2 above what you have suggested.  

Was it?