July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

16.1c to the 21st

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

Will it finish below the 61-90 average?!

3 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

You d have to be old to remember it then..

So it was the equal hottest june since 1846 or it was the same as 1976..

Yes, I'm struggling to remember it myself! 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

On 20/07/2023 at 14:09, Frigid said:

Not long left of July, and I can't see any direction of warmth in the foreseeable with quite a few days pretty cool. That said I'd expect a CET around 15.7-16.2C.  Nights are crucial and have been the reason this July isn't close to the 14s yet. 

You are probably right on that, very average kind of CET according to the older averages.   

[Snowyowl9]

Looking to the good old days so 1986 and 1987 it came out as 15.9c..

[North-Easterly Blast]

Looking at average CETs for July, on the legacy series; the 1961-90 average is 16.1*C (16.05), and the 1991-2020 average is 16.8*C (16.79).  In between those the 1971-2000 average is 16.5*C (16.48) and the 1981-2010 average is 16.7*C (16.71).  

Looking at this we did have some fairly cool Julys in 2011 and 2012, and the coolest since then was in 2020, which did finish slightly below the 1961-90 average.  

 

Edited July 22, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Done some research from Pershore on the bbc weather centre app on where the CET is likely to land and it seems as though 16.1 will be the final finishing number at this stage.   Mind you I don't know what yesterday was like in the CET zone so it could be 16 in that case.    

[Addicks Fan 1981]

16.1 to the 22nd 

0.1 above the 61-90 average 

0.3 below the 81-10 average 

[Don]

3 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

16.1 to the 22nd 

0.1 above the 61-90 average 

0.3 below the 81-10 average 

Thought there would have been a drop yesterday.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

We can't assume anything @Donwith our weather.  

[Don]

1 minute ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

We can't assume anything @Donwith our weather.  

No but with a cool day yesterday, I thought it would likely drop to 16.0C, but obviously not!

[richie3846]

14 minutes ago, Don said:

Thought there would have been a drop yesterday.

There was a drop, but it was due to rounding that it was not visible. 

[Roger J Smith]

Looks like CET dropped from 16.14 to 16.08. Latest EWP projection is 135 mm and possibly more, will be adjusting scoring table already posted.

Time to start looking at top ten wettest July stats (1766-2022) ... 140.0 would be 16th wettest. These are current top 20. 

 

TOP 20 WET JULY EWP 1766-2022

 

Rank __ Year ____ EWP ________________ Rank __ Year ____ EWP

_01 ____ 1828 ____ 182.6 ______________ _11 ____ 1767 ____ 148.0

_02 ____ 1834 ____ 164.2 ______________ _12 ____ 1822 ____ 145.2

_03 ____ 1775 ____ 158.4 ______________ _13 ____ 1829 ____ 143.7

_04 ____ 1880 ____ 157.5 ______________ _14 ____ 1875 ____ 142.7

_05 ____ 1888 ____ 156.6 ______________ _15 ____ 2009 ____ 140.7

_06 ____ 1787 ____ 155.0 ______________ _16 ____ 1988 ____ 139.0

_07 ____ 1839 ____ 152.9 ______________ _17 ____ 1936 ____ 138.0

_08 ____ 1816 ____ 152.0 ______________ _18 ____ 2007 ____ 137.9

_09 ____ 1798 ____ 149.5 ______________ _19 ____ 1796 ____ 135.2

_10 ____ 1779 ____ 149.3 ______________ _20 ____ 1920 ____ 132.4

_________________________

17 out of 20 were 1936 or before, 15 were 1888 or before. 

(first 1/2 of data ends 1894)

1988, 2007 and 2009 are only "modern" entrants to list. 

 

[Frigid]

This month looks to be wetter than July 2007 or 2012 by the projections.., guess no one saw that coming after such a warm dry June. 

[Don]

12 minutes ago, Frigid said:

This month looks to be wetter than July 2007 or 2012 by the projections.., guess no one saw that coming after such a warm dry June. 

Certainly not I!

[summer blizzard]

I'd be curious to know how much that warm weekend contributed to the CET around the 7th (think it was Thurs-Sun that recorded warm means).

[SummerShower]

Think the reason the CET isn't as low as might be expected is the anomalous warmth in the Atlantic.  This may, especially with all the cloud, be whats keeping the minimum CET up a bit.  

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Frigid said:

This month looks to be wetter than July 2007 or 2012 by the projections.., guess no one saw that coming after such a warm dry June. 

The synoptics have been very July 09.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 15.9C -0.5C below average. Rainfall 144.2mm 225.7% of the monthly average.

Now the 2nd wettest July on record up from 9th yesterday. Unlikely to the beat 187mm recorded in 1973 but if we get some heavy showers in the next few days it may do but odds are against it.

Actually could still be a below average summer if August comes in very dry.

[Weather-history]

11 hours ago, Frigid said:

This month looks to be wetter than July 2007 or 2012 by the projections.., guess no one saw that coming after such a warm dry June. 

 

11 hours ago, Don said:

Certainly not I!

June ended up not being that especially dry anyway.  Local variations as always  but June 2015 has a lower rainfall total than June 2023 for England and Wales. 

[Snowyowl9]

Fourth wettest here on record now..

2007

2009

2012

Last night was very wet climbed  3 to 4 places in the chart..2023 from 7 to 4..

[Summer Sun]

16.1c to the 23rd

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[LetItSnow!]

20 hours ago, damianslaw said:

The synoptics have been very July 09.

And July 2009 came out with a very similar C.E.T. as well. One of those copy months, though July 2009 managed hotter weather at the start than this month. I think the max in July 2009 was 33C but I think we’ve only managed 30.1C this month. If we escape a heat pump in August maybe this year we might get away without a heat spike. 2021 managed that. If 2023 can then it gives me hope that hot every year will see crazy high temperatures! But we have a month to go yet!!

Edited July 24, 2023 by LetItSnow!

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP has passed 100 mm (I think), 89 mm to Saturday plus Sunday's north-central deluge well verified by watching Open on TV ... looks to be about 102 to 105 mm with GFS saying 25-30 mm more at least, most of that coming later this week. I have adjusted scoring estimates which are now not really estimates at all. CET will drift down into 15.8-15.9 range at some point later this week and then may drift back up to finish around 16.0. I have a chance at a double if it were to stay at 15.8. In the past there have been two doubles (CET and EWP firsts) scored by Midlands Ice Age and myself. (my standard of reporting on my own status is simply this, would I report it for another entrant? if yes, then say it). The average error portion of the EWP contest is a bit compromised by one or two who qualify but missed out on August (stewfox, freeze, DRL). If they fall below the criterion of three or fewer missed months, then they won't be ranked in later months and a more equitable outcome will occur in that ranking. Stewfox, freeze and Kirkcaldy Weather will need to enter all remaining contests to maintain an average error ranking and DRL can miss one more out of four remaining. 

In points ranking, snowray has edged out in front of leo97t and Reef is keeping pace in third, those three have opened up a bit of a gap on the chase pack, which is quite large because there isn't a huge difference in points from about 4th to 20th in the contest. (preliminary scoring table will soon be edited back a few days now) ... will post the slightly adjusted outcome of EWP scoring on 2nd of Aug but only a few minor details of average error rank are likely to change, points appear locked in now. 

 

Edited July 24, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Don]

4 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

If we escape a heat pump in August maybe this year we might get away without a heat spike. 2021 managed that. If 2023 can then it gives me hope that hot every year will see crazy high temperatures! But we have a month to go yet!!

Sorry, couldn't resist!! 

[Midlands Ice Age]

14 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Fourth wettest here on record now..

2007

2009

2012

Last night was very wet climbed  3 to 4 places in the chart..2023 from 7 to 4..

Just checked my rain gauge...

Couldn't believe it ,,,,,, already at 130.5mms.  With 40.2mms in the last 7 days.

Now I am expecting around 150mms by next week. Normally I have averaged 65mms during July.

I am in the middle of the CET zone, so could be a nearly record breaking month coming up.

Was surprised at the total.

MIA

[LetItSnow!]

16 minutes ago, Don said:

Sorry, couldn't resist!! 

Too late to edit. If every year of the 21st century left sees 40+ max then you know who to blame