July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Dancerwithwings]

20 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Just checked my rain gauge...

Couldn't believe it ,,,,,, already at 130.5mms.  With 40.2mms in the last 7 days.

Now I am expecting around 150mms by next week. Normally I have averaged 65mms during July.

I am in the middle of the CET zone, so could be a nearly record breaking month coming up.

Was surprised at the total.

MIA

Blimey I’m reading 78.7mm for the month so far MIA….we are as you know not many a mile from each other???

edit…I’ll have to check our local  official data readings tomorrow…. Coleshill etc 

Edited July 24, 2023 by Dancerwithwings

[Summer Sun]

16.1c to the 24th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Warm nights I think are likely to keep the CET above 16 after tonight.   Will be ironic if this July has the same CET as July 2009.   

[reef]

Thursday and Friday are looking quite warm in the CET zone now, with mid-teens by night and as high as 24-26C by day, so I think that will ensure we stay in the 16s. Possibly a slight rise even.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, reef said:

Thursday and Friday are looking quite warm in the CET zone now, with mid-teens by night and as high as 24-26C by day, so I think that will ensure we stay in the 16s. Possibly a slight rise even.

Agree what you say @reef on that.    

[damianslaw]

16 hours ago, reef said:

Thursday and Friday are looking quite warm in the CET zone now, with mid-teens by night and as high as 24-26C by day, so I think that will ensure we stay in the 16s. Possibly a slight rise even.

Not sure will see max temps that high, we shall see.

Touch and go whether we end in the 16s or 15s..

July has seen a very static CET throughout, rare for flatlining to happen nowadays. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 15.8C -0.7C below average. Rainfall unchanged at 144.2mm 225.7% of the monthly rainfall.

Should be a slow rise from now on so an average wet month looks to be the final result.

Edited July 26, 2023 by The PIT

[Scorcher]

Looking at the local statistics- I didn't realise July 2020 was quite as bad as it was. It's a forgotten month for me in many ways due to the restrictions we were under at the time. This month has been very dull but will have overtaken July 2020 for overall sunshine today.

It looks like we will at least break the 100 hour barrier for sunshine here. Below 100 hours is the hallmark of a truly horrific July around here. Even if the last few days were sunny, we'd still be well down on the average overall.

[reef]

27 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Looking at the local statistics- I didn't realise July 2020 was quite as bad as it was. It's a forgotten month for me in many ways due to the restrictions we were under at the time. This month has been very dull but will have overtaken July 2020 for overall sunshine today.

It looks like we will at least break the 100 hour barrier for sunshine here. Below 100 hours is the hallmark of a truly horrific July around here. Even if the last few days were sunny, we'd still be well down on the average overall.

July 2020 was the only summer month ever to fail to hit 100 hours of sunshine here. It finished on 97 hours, just 49% of average.

Its one of only 5 months in 43 years of records to fail to hit 50% of average sunshine. The others were March 1984, January and March 1996 (two out of three months!) and December 2002.

[cheese]

51 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Looking at the local statistics- I didn't realise July 2020 was quite as bad as it was. It's a forgotten month for me in many ways due to the restrictions we were under at the time. This month has been very dull but will have overtaken July 2020 for overall sunshine today.

It looks like we will at least break the 100 hour barrier for sunshine here. Below 100 hours is the hallmark of a truly horrific July around here. Even if the last few days were sunny, we'd still be well down on the average overall.

I don’t remember July 2020 being as bad as it was either, but 2020 in general is a bit of a blur for me.

[BruenSryan]

It does amaze me how many forget July 2020 whilst it is my personal least favourite summer month although July 2023 is making a strong contender! Had only 104 hrs of sun in July 2020 followed by 97 hours in August 2020.. however the July total is arguably worse because it has higher potential with more daylight whilst both are atrocious. This July is on 93.6 hrs right now. 

Edited July 26, 2023 by BruenSryan

[summer blizzard]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Looking at the local statistics- I didn't realise July 2020 was quite as bad as it was. It's a forgotten month for me in many ways due to the restrictions we were under at the time. This month has been very dull but will have overtaken July 2020 for overall sunshine today.

It looks like we will at least break the 100 hour barrier for sunshine here. Below 100 hours is the hallmark of a truly horrific July around here. Even if the last few days were sunny, we'd still be well down on the average overall.

July 2020 was somewhat forgettable because it was not extreme. I recall it having one 14C and heavy rain day but other than that the only thing i recall is the dullness of most of the first week in which we saw about 4 hours of sunshine one evening that that was it. This month by virtue of the weekend rainfall and more convective rainfall (and thunder early in the month) will be more memorable. 

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, reef said:

July 2020 was the only summer month ever to fail to hit 100 hours of sunshine here. It finished on 97 hours, just 49% of average.

Its one of only 5 months in 43 years of records to fail to hit 50% of average sunshine. The others were March 1984, January and March 1996 (two out of three months!) and December 2002.

That is especially shocking given you're so close to the coast.  2020 really was a remarkably cloudy month.  Spring/summer 2020 sums up the feast or famine nature of the modern climate in a way, with that incredibly sunny spring being followed by a very cloudy summer. June and August were also well below average here for sunshine.

[Roger J Smith]

There was no update for CET on 25th, the value on 24th (16.1) was actually 16.075. I suspect it would have fallen to 16.0 rounded for 25th (Pershore had a low minimum and all three were quite cool for a max), and the average will now drift up to about 16.2 by weekend with 17-18 means for several days, perhaps then level off or drop back to 16.1 at end of month. They seem to have low-balled Sunday's rainfall, even so, EWP very close to 100 mm before today's rain and GFS still indicates a finish near 125 or even 130 mm. 

[Weather-history]

7 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Looking at the local statistics- I didn't realise July 2020 was quite as bad as it was. It's a forgotten month for me in many ways due to the restrictions we were under at the time. This month has been very dull but will have overtaken July 2020 for overall sunshine today.

It looks like we will at least break the 100 hour barrier for sunshine here. Below 100 hours is the hallmark of a truly horrific July around here. Even if the last few days were sunny, we'd still be well down on the average overall.

So was July 2010 , it was even worse than July 2020.  

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

So was July 2010 , it was even worse than July 2020.  

2007-2012 was such a terrible run of summers. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Our terrible run of summers @cheesecoincided with a big solar sleep.   SC24 was 30% weaker than SC23.    

[Don]

7 minutes ago, cheese said:

2007-2012 was such a terrible run of summers. 

Not as bad as the run of summers 1985 to 1988 though.

[Metwatch]

On 30/06/2023 at 22:10, Metwatch said:

17.4°C and 57mm please. 

Although this summer has the best chance of having a July cooler than June, I don't think that feat will be achieved, although can never be certain what surprises can happen. 

First half of July looks to be fairly average for temperatures maybe a touch below at times. Spells of showers and longer spells of rain in the mix. The second half may be a bit warmer and also drier. 

With a few days left of July, safe to say this was quite a bit off the mark. July is now going to end up cooler than June, which I think almost everyone didn't expect, but I thought there was a small chance. Still, a shock to me. 

Didn't really get any of that drier/ warmer conditions in the second half either, and looking at the EWP, this might be the wettest July since 2012. 

Interesting to see what August holds and whether it may be warmer than June, and if it isn't, then a truly weird summer we would have had. 

Edited July 26, 2023 by Metwatch

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Not as bad as the run of summers 1985 to 1988 though.

In terms of temperature probably not, those 80s summers were cold (& it’s difficult to get anything like that now with average temperatures being so much higher). But the likes of 2007 are hard to beat when it comes to rainfall.

I was born in 1987 and June 2012 is the worst summer month I have ever experienced. We had a sub-10C maximum on the 3rd. 

Edited July 27, 2023 by cheese

[Frigid]

26 minutes ago, cheese said:

In terms of temperature probably not, those 80s summers were cold (& it’s difficult to get anything like that now with average temperatures being so much higher). But the likes of 2007 are hard to beat when it comes to rainfall.

I was born in 1987 and June 2012 is the worst summer month I have ever experienced. We had a sub-10C maximum on the 3rd. 

Yes I remember that day, coincided with the Jubilee weekend and oh my it was cold.. like a propers winter day you could see your breath and the rain made it feel like mid single digits. Never knew that could occur in summer. 

Other similar days in June where the temperature didn't exceed 12C were in 2019, and the 5th June 2022 which also coincided with the Jubilee weekend.. you'd find warmer days in January.

[cheese]

26 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Yes I remember that day, coincided with the Jubilee weekend and oh my it was cold.. like a propers winter day you could see your breath and the rain made it feel like mid single digits. Never knew that could occur in summer. 

Other similar days in June where the temperature didn't exceed 12C were in 2019, and the 5th June 2022 which also coincided with the Jubilee weekend.. you'd find warmer days in January.

We had a high of 8.7C on 3rd June 1998 (clearly the 3rd of June is cursed). That’s the only other occurrence of single-digit maxima in summer I can recall. What’s interesting though is I can’t find any day in September with single-digit maxima. 

Anything royal related seems cursed as well. Charles’ coronation this year was wet in London, though it was pretty nice up here. 

Edited July 27, 2023 by cheese

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 15.8C -0.8C. Rainfall 156mm 244.1% of the monthly average.

[Scorcher]

13 hours ago, Don said:

Not as bad as the run of summers 1985 to 1988 though.

In terms of sunshine, some of the summer months since 2007 have been up there with the very worst.

Sunshine statistics don't go back as far as temperature but still...

[Scorcher]

15 hours ago, Weather-history said:

So was July 2010 , it was even worse than July 2020.  

Have you got some sunshine stats for July 2010? Again I can't really recall anything about that month. I do recall a downturn after a good June but not much more than that.