July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

15.9c to the 26th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[Frigid]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

15.9c to the 26th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

Took its time lol.. never knew a July with such a static CET. It's been in the low 16s since the 10th. 

[Don]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

15.9c to the 26th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

Finally dropped!  Possibly back up to 16.0 or 16.1C after today?

[Weather-history]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Have you got some sunshine stats for July 2010? Again I can't really recall anything about that month. I do recall a downturn after a good June but not much more than that.

RAF Woodford: 82hrs

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

RAF Woodford: 82hrs

That is abysmal...

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Finally dropped!  Possibly back up to 16.0 or 16.1C after today?

Think @Roger J Smithis right to be honest with you on this.   

[The PIT]

Should end just above 16C.

[Roger J Smith]

It will easily recover as that 15.9 appears to be 15.94 rounded down. 

There have been a grand total of three days this month warmer than 17.9, all of them in the interval of 7th to 9th. This compares with four by end of July 2020 (two were the last two days of that month), and three in 2015 (1st, 2nd and 4th). There were 14 such days last year in July and 21 in 2006. 

We may add one or two more such days.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

It will easily recover as that 15.9 appears to be 15.94 rounded down. 

There have been a grand total of three days this month warmer than 17.9, all of them in the interval of 7th to 9th. This compares with four by end of July 2020 (two were the last two days of that month), and three in 2015 (1st, 2nd and 4th). There were 14 such days last year in July and 21 in 2006. 

We may add one or two more such days.

Do you see a final around 16.1 or 16.2C Roger?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Do you see a final around 16.1 or 16.2C Roger?

Eh up Donald, 16.1 was mine, only 98mm though, underestimated the Atlantic

[Don]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Eh up Donald, 16.1 was mine, only 98mm though, underestimated the Atlantic

Well mine was 17.7C, so I think you have this lol!

[Roger J Smith]

Don, today's CET around 18, average of next four days 16.5, that would give an outcome of 16.1 for the month. All the cloud prevented many cool nights otherwise would be mid to high 15 range I believe. 

[damianslaw]

20 hours ago, cheese said:

We had a high of 8.7C on 3rd June 1998 (clearly the 3rd of June is cursed). That’s the only other occurrence of single-digit maxima in summer I can recall. What’s interesting though is I can’t find any day in September with single-digit maxima. 

Anything royal related seems cursed as well. Charles’ coronation this year was wet in London, though it was pretty nice up here. 

Coronation and jubilee events yes, but big royal weddings always seem to bring glorious sunshine.. well the last 2 did .

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

15.9c to the 26th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

Part of me wants to experience the novelty of a 61-90 below average month.. such are there rarity, but I suspect we will finish just above by a smidge, 16.1 degrees or bang on average. In any other year without such warm SSTs we would have easily been below average. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Absolutely @damianslawbut the fact its been so wet isn't so good.  Thing is nowadays its all extremes, theres no happy medium to our weather nowadays.   

[Don]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Don, today's CET around 18, average of next four days 16.5, that would give an outcome of 16.1 for the month. All the cloud prevented many cool nights otherwise would be mid to high 15 range I believe. 

There you go @I remember Atlantic 252!

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Eh up Donald, 16.1 was mine, only 98mm though, underestimated the Atlantic

Your the closest enough though.    

[Don]

20 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Your the closest enough though.    

Yes, I would be happy with that.  After getting May CET spot on, I have done very poorly with June and July!  Hopefully I will do better with August.....

Edited July 27, 2023 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

Regarding discussion of low maxima in September, 3 lowest values are seen below including 2 below 10.0:

Date ___ CET legacy __ CET v2.0

27 Sep __ 9.8 1974 __ 9.6 1974 

28 Sep __11.1 1974 _10.9 1974

29 Sep __ 8.3 1918 __ 8.2 1918 

30 Sep __10.1 1918 _10.1 1918

No days beside 27 and 29 Sep recorded max below 10 C. (1878 to 2022) ... 10.2 on 29 Sep 1952 (v2.0) was next coldest. 

[Earthshine]

Missed the mark with my 18.0°C for this month amazing how we've had such intense heat further south and if that boundary between warm and cool was just a bit further north we would be in for a very interesting time

[Weather-history]

Wettest summer month since August 2020 now and if it surpasses that total, it will be the wettest since  June 2012.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back to 15.9C -0.8C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

16.0c to the 27th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 15.9C -0.8C below average. Rainfall up 156.2mm 244.4% of the monthly average.

Expected a rise today but probably get one for tomorrow.

Looking at the local forecasts suggest a final figure of 16.2C so anywhere between 16.1C to 16.3C here.

Rainfall wise between 160 and 170mm.

[Summer Sun]

16.1c to the 28th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average