July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.1C +0.1C above average. Rainfall 91.5mm 143.2% of the monthly average.

[LetItSnow!]

On 16/07/2023 at 22:03, LetItSnow! said:

A rough estimate made by me from the models is 16.1°C up to the 26th. 

An update three days later and the rough estimate shows the C.E.T. standing at/around 15.8°C by day 10 (July 29th). Perhaps a bigger chance of getting into the 15s than I thought? Let's watch this space.

That figure is actually a tad below the 1961-1990 average and 1.1°C below the 1991-2020 average. 

Edited July 19, 2023 by LetItSnow!

[damianslaw]

Second half of July quite often warmest part of the year, sometimes extends into early August.

Alas this year looks like little warmth on offer.

July 2023 could end up 1 degree colder than June. Has that ever happened?

Edited July 19, 2023 by damianslaw

[SqueakheartLW]

29 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Second half of July quite often warmest part of the year, sometimes extends into early August.

Alas this year looks like little warmth on offer.

July 2023 could end up 1 degree colder than June. Has that ever happened?

July's at least 1C cooler than June in same year

Year    June CET    July CET    Difference
1676    18.0C        16.0C        -2.0C
1858    16.8C        14.8C        -2.0C
1846    18.2C        16.5C        -1.7C
1822    17.1C        15.6C        -1.5C
1940    16.4C        15.1C        -1.3C
1970    16.4C        15.2C        -1.2C
1786    16.1C        15.0C        -1.1C
1672    16.0C        15.0C        -1.0C
1817    15.1C        14.1C        -1.0C
1960    16.1C        15.1C        -1.0C

July's cooler than Junes by 0.1C to 0.9C

Year    June CET    July CET    Difference
1842    15.6C        14.5C        -0.9C
1743    15.6C        14.9C        -0.7C
1755    15.7C        15.0C        -0.7C
1965    14.7C        14.0C        -0.7C
1798    16.9C        16.3C        -0.6C
1845    14.9C        14.3C        -0.6C
1683    16.0C        15.5C        -0.5C
1685    14.5C        14.0C        -0.5C
1877    15.2C        14.7C        -0.5C
1910    14.7C        14.2C        -0.5C
1726    16.4C        16.0C        -0.4C
1758    14.6C        14.2C        -0.4C
1919    14.3C        13.9C        -0.4C
1966    15.4C        15.0C        -0.4C
1724    15.3C        15.0C        -0.3C
1840    14.1C        13.8C        -0.3C
1920    14.4C        14.1C        -0.3C
1950    16.2C        15.9C        -0.3C
1802    13.7C        13.5C        -0.2C
1804    16.1C        15.9C        -0.2C
1922    13.8C        13.7C        -0.1C
1930    15.3C        15.2C        -0.1C

Edited July 19, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

July's at least 1C cooler than June in same year

Year    June CET    July CET    Difference
1676    18.0C        16.0C        -2.0C
1858    16.8C        14.8C        -2.0C
1846    18.2C        16.5C        -1.7C
1822    17.1C        15.6C        -1.5C
1940    16.4C        15.1C        -1.3C
1970    16.4C        15.2C        -1.2C
1786    16.1C        15.0C        -1.1C
1672    16.0C        15.0C        -1.0C
1817    15.1C        14.1C        -1.0C
1960    16.1C        15.1C        -1.0C

July's cooler than Junes by 0.1C to 0.9C

Year    June CET    July CET    Difference
1842    15.6C        14.5C        -0.9C
1743    15.6C        14.9C        -0.7C
1755    15.7C        15.0C        -0.7C
1965    14.7C        14.0C        -0.7C
1798    16.9C        16.3C        -0.6C
1845    14.9C        14.3C        -0.6C
1683    16.0C        15.5C        -0.5C
1685    14.5C        14.0C        -0.5C
1877    15.2C        14.7C        -0.5C
1910    14.7C        14.2C        -0.5C
1726    16.4C        16.0C        -0.4C
1758    14.6C        14.2C        -0.4C
1919    14.3C        13.9C        -0.4C
1966    15.4C        15.0C        -0.4C
1724    15.3C        15.0C        -0.3C
1840    14.1C        13.8C        -0.3C
1920    14.4C        14.1C        -0.3C
1950    16.2C        15.9C        -0.3C
1802    13.7C        13.5C        -0.2C
1804    16.1C        15.9C        -0.2C
1922    13.8C        13.7C        -0.1C
1930    15.3C        15.2C        -0.1C

Just goes to show how rare this had been in recent times!

Edited July 19, 2023 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

EWP was around 70 mm to 12z 19th, and looks set to add 40-50 mm to reach 110-120 mm. If so (within 10 mm), scoring is almost set, only Weather26 (112 mm) and four others above 98 mm could possibly exchange scores and margins would be small if so. One forecast is above 112 mm (I'm at 120.8). 

CET looks like ending up in high 15 range to me. 

 

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

July's at least 1C cooler than June in same year

Year    June CET    July CET    Difference
1676    18.0C        16.0C        -2.0C
1858    16.8C        14.8C        -2.0C
1846    18.2C        16.5C        -1.7C
1822    17.1C        15.6C        -1.5C
1940    16.4C        15.1C        -1.3C
1970    16.4C        15.2C        -1.2C
1786    16.1C        15.0C        -1.1C
1672    16.0C        15.0C        -1.0C
1817    15.1C        14.1C        -1.0C
1960    16.1C        15.1C        -1.0C

July's cooler than Junes by 0.1C to 0.9C

Year    June CET    July CET    Difference
1842    15.6C        14.5C        -0.9C
1743    15.6C        14.9C        -0.7C
1755    15.7C        15.0C        -0.7C
1965    14.7C        14.0C        -0.7C
1798    16.9C        16.3C        -0.6C
1845    14.9C        14.3C        -0.6C
1683    16.0C        15.5C        -0.5C
1685    14.5C        14.0C        -0.5C
1877    15.2C        14.7C        -0.5C
1910    14.7C        14.2C        -0.5C
1726    16.4C        16.0C        -0.4C
1758    14.6C        14.2C        -0.4C
1919    14.3C        13.9C        -0.4C
1966    15.4C        15.0C        -0.4C
1724    15.3C        15.0C        -0.3C
1840    14.1C        13.8C        -0.3C
1920    14.4C        14.1C        -0.3C
1950    16.2C        15.9C        -0.3C
1802    13.7C        13.5C        -0.2C
1804    16.1C        15.9C        -0.2C
1922    13.8C        13.7C        -0.1C
1930    15.3C        15.2C        -0.1C

Thanks, 1970 the last year featured.. 

[Derecho]

Based on the 18z, I've got the CET finishing at 15.8C with minima holding things up a bit. The maximum temperature anomaly will be more negative, with some low maxes coming on Saturday especially.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP annual scoring update _ first estimate, based on EWP of 126 mm (edit 24 Jul)

The table shows changes in rank for both points (left columns) and average error (inner table columns). For July scoring ranks, these now follow the order of forecasts as our highest forecast was 120.8 mm, scoring levels are 0.19 with some minor jogs due to penalties and different sub-scoring features. Duplicate forecasts only drop 0.10 per entry. I have listed the July scores in this table. Minor adjustments are likely (for average error at least, points are now pretty much locked in for any outcome over 116.4 mm) at end of month on 2nd August. 

This table updates all annual scores for (a) forecasters with 3 or more entries and (b) anyone else who entered July. 

Some scoring ranks are therefore left out near the end of the list. To be ranked for average error, five to eight contest forecasts are required (54 now ranked, it was 57 after June).

In the table, n is number of months entered. * (rank) for avg error is current followed by previous rank

+ indicates a July rank moving past a late penalty for a lower error value, v indicates a late penalty of 0.30 and possibly a drop in rank. Not shown, duplicate entries are scored one half level lower per entry (0.10 instead of 0.19). Error size categories and correct anomaly bonus result in slight jogs relative to a straight uniform drop of 0.19 per scoring level. July ranks 1 to 4 could move up or down by one to four ranks and rank 5 could move up any number from 1 to 4 ranks depending on actual outcome (assuming it is at least 98 mm). 

 

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ________ n ___ TOTAL PTS ____ AVG ERROR (rank)*__ July fcst, score (rank)

_01 __ 02 ___ snowray ______________8 ___ 57.87 _________ 25.81 ( 3 ) _ ( 3 ) ____ 79.0 __ 7.66 (13)

_02 __ 01 ___ Leo97t _______________ 8 ___ 56.25 _________ 25.63 ( 2 ) _ ( 1 ) ____ 65.0 __ 4.56 (29) 

_03 __ 03 ___ Reef __________________8 ___ 54.87 _________ 27.25 ( 5 ) _ ( 4 ) ____ 74.5 __ 6.61 (19)

_04 __ 05 ___ February1978 ________8 ___ 49.54 _________ 30.25 (14) _ ( 7 ) ____ 63.0 __ 4.18 (30)+

_05 __ 19 ___ Summer Shower______7 ___ 48.73 _________ 26.23 ( 4 ) _ (13) ____103.0 __ 9.62 (3)

_06 __ 04 ___ Mulzy _________________8 ___ 48.72 _________ 30.30 (15) _ ( 5 ) ____ 56.0 __ 2.85 (38)

_07 __ 14 ___ bobd29 _______________8 ___ 48.51 _________ 29.01 (11) _ ( 8 ) ____ 74.5 __ 6.71 (18)

_08 __ 06 ___ DR(S)NO ______________8 ___ 48.13 _________ 31.08 (16) _ ( 9 ) ____ 60.0 __ 3.70 (34)

_09 __ 21 ___ virtualsphere _________8 ___ 47.93 _________ 29.90 (12) _ (25) ____103.0 __ 9.52 (4)

_10 __ 18 ___prolongedSnowLover _8 ___ 47.77 _________ 27.59 ( 8 ) _ ( 6 ) ____ 81.0 ___8.04 (11)

_11 __ 16 ___ jonboy _______________ 8 ___ 47.56 _________ 31.03 (16) _ (15) ____ 72.0 __ 6.14 (21)

_12 __ 12 ___ Weather Observer ___ 8 ___ 47.12 _________ 31.63 (19) _ (16) ____ 68.0 __ 5.04 (27)

_13 __ 17 ___ Stationary Front ______8 ___ 47.07 _________ 30.03 (13) _ (12) ____ 73.0 __ 6.33 (20)

_14 __ 15 ___ Jeff C _________________ 8 ___ 46.60 _________ 32.80 (22) _ (21) ____ 68.0 __ 5.14 (26)

_15 __ 09 ___ Midlands Ice Age _____8 ___ 45.81 _________ 34.50 (29) _ (22) ____ 56.0 __ 2.65 (40)

_16 __ 10 ___ dancerwithwings _____8 ___ 45.63 _________ 34.53 (30) _ (23) ____ 59.0 __ 3.42 (35)

_17 __ 22 ___ J 10 ___________________8 ___ 45.37 _________ 31.18 (18) _  (17) ____ 75.0 __ 7.17 (17)

_t18__ 24 ___ Polar Gael ___________ 8 ___ 45.36 _________ 33.56 (26) _ (27) ____ 75.0 __ 7.47 (14)

_t18__ 08 ___ Feb1991Blizzard _____8 ___ 45.36 _________ 32.43 (21) _ (10) ____ 52.0 __ 1.99 (42)+

_20 __ 07 ___ Emmett Garland _____ 8 ___ 44.33 _________ 32.93 (23) _ (11) ____ 49.0 __ 0.76 (49)

_21 __ 23 ___ Wold Topper _________ 8 ___ 43.95 _________ 33.50 (25) _ (24) ____ 70.0 __ 5.94 (22)

_22 __ 13 ___ seaside60 ____________ 8 ___ 43.82 _________ 35.95 (34) _ (26) ____ 55.0 __ 1.98 (43) v

_23 __ 26 ___ I Remember Atl252 ___7 ___ 42.45 _________ 28.28 ( 9 ) _ (19) ____ 98.0 __ 9.05 (6)

_24 __ 11 ___ Mapantz ______________8 ___ 42.18 _________ 34.93 (31) _ (18) ____ 44.0 __ 0.00 (53)

_25 __ 32 ___ summer8906 _________6 ___ 40.68 _________ 22.12 ( 1 ) _  ( 2 ) ____100.0 __ 9.24 (5)

_26 __ 35 ___ Roger J Smith _________8 ___ 40.55 _________ 28.71 (10) _ (31) ____120.8 __10.00 (1)

_27 __ 33 ___ noname_weather_____8 ___ 40.45 _________ 33.18 (24) _ (38) ____ 98.0 __ 8.65 (7) v

_28 __ 27 ___ Don __________________ 8 ___ 40.18 _________ 34.30 (28) _ (29) ____ 75.0 __ 7.27

_29 __ 20 ___ daniel* _______________ 8 ___ 38.68 _________ 38.06 (36) _ (28) ____ 45.0 __ 0.10 (52) v

_30 __ 36 ___ summer18 ___________ 8 ___ 37.94 _________ 33.93 (27) _ (35) ____ 88.0 __ 8.64 (8)

_31 _ t41 ___ Weather26 ____________7 ___ 36.19 _________ 27.52 ( 6 ) _ (20) ____112.0 __9.81 (2)

_32 __ 38 ___ shillitocettwo _________ 8 ___ 35.37 _________ 43.53 (46) _ (51) ____ 80.0 __ 7.85 (12)

_33 __ 28 ___ davehsug _____________8 ___ 34.42 _________ 38.30 (39) _ (34) ____ 52.0 __ 1.89 (44)

_34 __ 40 ___ Godber 1 _____________ 8 ___ 34.15 _________ 38.25 (38) _(t41) ____ 75.0 __ 7.37 (15)

_35 __ 34 ___ The PIT _______________ 8 ___ 33.83 _________ 40.38 (42)_ (t41) ____ 58.0 __ 3.23 (36)

_36 __ 29 ___ Methuselah __________ 8 ___ 33.63 _________ 39.55 (41) _ (39) ____ 50.0 __ 1.23 (47)

_37 __ 25 ___ DiagonalRedLine _____ 6 ___ 33.52 _________ 33.52 (32) _ (37) ____ no fcst

_38 __ 44 ___ Mr Maunder __________8 ___ 33.11 _________ 38.80 (40) _ (45) ____ 82.0 __ 8.23 (10)

_t39__ 30 ___ Norrance _____________8 ___ 32.65 _________ 38.15 (37) _ (33) ____ 49.0 __ 0.66 (50)

_t39__ 45 ___ syed2878 _____________8 ___ 32.65 _________ 41.40 (45) _ (48) ____ 85.0 __ 8.42 (9)

_41 __ t41 ___ rwtwm _______________ 8 ___ 32.12 _________ 40.55 (43) _ (46) ____ 70.0 __ 5.74 (24)

_42 __ 31 ___ freeze _________________5 ___ 31.95 _________ 31.92 (20) _ (30) ____ no fcst

_43 __ 37 ___ stewfox _______________ 5 ___ 29.13 _________ 27.44 ( 7 ) _ (14) ____ no fcst

_44 __ 39 ___ SLEETY ________________ 7 ___ 27.10 _________ 35.57 (33) _ (40) ____ no fcst

_45 __ 43 ___ Cymro _________________4 ___ 26.11 _________ 36.88 (---) _  (43) ____ no fcst

_46 __ 48 ___ Neil N __________________7 ___ 26.03 _________ 40.78 (44) _ (44) ____ 66.0 __ 4.75 (28)

_47 __ 47 ___ Moorlander ___________ 8 ___ 24.51 _________ 45.93 (49) _ (50) ____ 56.0 __ 2.75 (39)

_48 __ 46 ___ summer blizzard ______8 ___ 24.35 _________ 45.75 (48) _ (47) ____ 48.0 __ 0.38 (51)

_49 __ 50 ___ Frigid __________________8 ___ 23.79 _________ 49.83 (51) _ (55) ____ 65.0 __ 4.16 (31) v

_50 __ 49 ___ SteveB _________________8 ___ 22.74 _________ 45.95 (50) _ (49) ____ 52.0 __ 2.09 (41)+

_51 __ 51 ___ Metwatch ______________7 ___ 22.15 _________ 52.60 (53) _ (56) ____ 57.0 __ 3.04 (37)

_52 __ 56 ___ sunny_vale _____________ 5 ___ 19.99 _________37.98 (35) _ (37) ____ 70.0 __ 5.84 (23)

_53 __ 52 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather _____ 5 ___ 19.01 _________ 44.90 (47) _ (53) ____ no fcst

_54 __ 53 ___ Blast From the Past ____4 ___ 18.63 _________ 44.15 (---) _ (52) ____ no fcst

_55 __ 58 ___ catbrainz _______________4 ___ 17.74 _________ 47.63 ( --- ) _ (---) ____ 60.0 __ 3.80 (33)

_56 __ 60 ___ chilly milly ______________8 ___ 17.48 _________ 57.34 (54) _ (57) ____ 69.0 __ 5.34 (25)

_57 __ 55 ___ B87 _____________________3 ___ 17.25 __________29.33 (---) _ (---) ____ 50.0 __ 1.13 (48)

_58 __ 54 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers _4 _17.04 _________ 32.58 (---) _ (32) ____ no fcst

_59 __ 59 ___ Earthshine ______________6 ___ 15.03 _________ 48.37 (52) _ (54) ____ 50.0 __ 1.33 (46)

_60 __ 57 ___ Let It Snow! _____________3 ___ 14.06 _________ 51.47 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_67 __ --- ___ kold weather ____________1 ____ 7.75 _________ 46.00 (---) _ (---) ____ 80.0 __ 7.75 (13)

_87 __ --- ___ mattstoke _______________1 ____ 1.49 _________ 74.00 (---) _ (---) ____ 52.0 __ 1.49 v

=========================

(3.9) _(5.8) __ Consensus ______________8 ___ 49.75 _________ 31.74 (19.1) (16.2) __ 68.0 __ 5.14 (t26)

(14.8)(16.4) _ 1981-2010 average _____ 8 ___ 45.93 _________ 29.43 (10.0) _(6.3) __ 67.3 __ 4.80 (27.4)

(24.1)(24,1) _ 1991-2020 average _____ 8 ___ 43.44 _________ 30.43 (14.2)  (13.5) __ 72.0 __ 6.14 (t21)

______________________________

 

Edited July 24, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Maz]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Thanks, 1970 the last year featured.. 

1910, 1920, 1930, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 all with colder July than June....strange quirk of statistics

[Weather-history]

34 minutes ago, Maz said:

1910, 1920, 1930, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 all with colder July than June....strange quirk of statistics

Also that July 1990 was the first fairly decent July ending in "0" since 1900.

July 2000 was poorish,

July 2010 was very poor for west and north, much better to south and east

July 2020 was poor. 

 

[Summer Sun]

16.3c to the 19th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[Frigid]

Not long left of July, and I can't see any direction of warmth in the foreseeable with quite a few days pretty cool. That said I'd expect a CET around 15.7-16.2C.  Nights are crucial and have been the reason this July isn't close to the 14s yet. 

[Roger J Smith]

Today's EWP projection is even higher and could reach 120 mm. The CET continues to drift lower erratically and may spend some time in the 15s whether it ends there or maybe 16.0, 16.1. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.1C +0.1C above average. Rainfall 94.5mm 147.9% of monthly

[damianslaw]

Will be interested to see average max compared to average min. Mins haven't been that low thanks to cloud, but a cool one this eve on the cards. Northern areas just out of the CET have seen cooler minima, and maxima substantively cool. Perhaps the SST values are preventing this month from being notably below average. The air has predominantly been a chill polar source. Only seems right we end up below the 61-90 average, but touch and go whether that happens, a good chance I feel.

Edited July 20, 2023 by damianslaw

[BruenSryan]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Will be interested to see average max compared to average min. Mins haven't been that low thanks to cloud, but a cool one this eve on the cards. Northern areas just out of the CET have seen cooler minima, and maxima substantively cool. Perhaps the SST values are preventing this month from being notably below average. The air has predominantly been a chill polar source. Only seems right we end up below the 61-90 average, but touch and go whether that happens, a good chance I feel.

CET minimum is 0.6C above 61-90 whilst CET maximum is bang on the 61-90 average.

UK national mean max is ~0.27C above 61-90 whilst min is ~1.00C above 61-90. Mean max is ~0.72C below the modern warmer 91-20.

[damianslaw]

44 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

CET minimum is 0.6C above 61-90 whilst CET maximum is bang on the 61-90 average.

UK national mean max is ~0.27C above 61-90 whilst min is ~1.00C above 61-90. Mean max is ~0.72C below the modern warmer 91-20.

A very average month so far then, rare to see one flatline for so long... 

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A very average month so far then, rare to see one flatline for so long... 

Indeed, and it's the second month this year that's done so. After a few days in the 7s early on in the month, the running mean for April never moved out of the 8s.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Relativistic

[Summer Sun]

16.2c to the 20th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.1C +0.1C above average. Rainfall 94.5mm 147.9% of the monthly average.

If the GFS is right that rainfall figure is going to fly past 100mm perhaps up to 150mm by end of Monday.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is at 70 mm now and GFS predicts 50-60 mm grid average to reach 120-130 mm. That would give the adjusted scores mentioned in my post as a note at the end. If the trends seem accurate after Monday I will just edit the post, only five scores are affected and only one (mine) goes up much, four others come down slightly and not enough to change ranks. May be time to repost this but I had a list of summers back around 2nd of month in the thread that featured a warm June and August with a relatively cool July between them. I think 1743 and 1842 had the two most blatant cases of that. If the models start to show a decent trend in August I will repost the list. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16C. -0.2C below average. Rainfall 97.8mm 153.1% of the monthly average.

Uncertain how much rain we will get from the low pressure system this weekend it's looking less than suggested though so probably looking at 110 to 120mm by the end of Sunday which will mean what ever happens it's to going to be an average to wet summer with short odds on a wet summer .

[Snowyowl9]

On 19/07/2023 at 20:44, Don said:

Just goes to show how rare this had been in recent times!

You d have to be old to remember it then..

So it was the equal hottest june since 1846 or it was the same as 1976..

[Summer Sun]

16.1c to the 21st

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average