July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[summer blizzard]

Modelling can change however it is starting to look like our 16.8C target for the 1991-2020 mean will now require a late hot spell. 

In terms of potential targets we are looking at coolest since..

2020: 15.8C

2012: 15.6C

2011: 15.3C

1993: 15.1C

Edited July 13, 2023 by summer blizzard

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 16.3C +0.8C above average. Rainfall 51.4mm 80.4% of the monthly average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.4C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[LetItSnow!]

Still looking cool to me during the next 7 days or so. I spotted some quite cool NW winds around the 20th which could produce some cool nights. I still think a slow tick down is on its way, but enough to break the 15s? 

[Frigid]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

Still looking cool to me during the next 7 days or so. I spotted some quite cool NW winds around the 20th which could produce some cool nights. I still think a slow tick down is on its way, but enough to break the 15s? 

Agreed, the next 10 days doesn't reach 20C at all. Nights are around average though. Won't be surprised if we are in the 15s by months end, but as we saw in 2020 the heat can come out of nowhere. I'm fully expecting a surprise heat spike in the upcoming weeks, with the record breaking warmth in the med making its way here. 

[LetItSnow!]

22 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Agreed, the next 10 days doesn't reach 20C at all. Nights are around average though. Won't be surprised if we are in the 15s by months end, but as we saw in 2020 the heat can come out of nowhere. I'm fully expecting a surprise heat spike in the upcoming weeks, with the record breaking warmth in the med making its way here. 

This could happen, though August 2021 was an example that we can have excessive heat across the continent and not tap into it. I'd rather we not myself.

[Summer Sun]

16.4c to the 13th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[SqueakheartLW]

Looking like the Netweather July 2023 forecast is going pear shaped.

The warmest month of the summer with temps at least 2C above the 1981-2010 average was what I thought it said.

So far a long way out unless we see a heatwave for the 2nd half of the month but models show no sign of any heatwave in the UK.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP around 35 mm to end of 13th and looks set to add 35-45 mm to end of month, for totals around 70-80 mm. (from GFS). In this pattern there is probably more upside potential. CET projections remain quite low and the battle is on to reach or avoid the 15s depending on what you want. I'm relatively happy with my punt (15.6) but nervous about the last minute heat spike potential that always exists nowadays. 

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Looking like the Netweather July 2023 forecast is going pear shaped.

The warmest month of the summer with temps at least 2C above the 1981-2010 average was what I thought it said.

So far a long way out unless we see a heatwave for the 2nd half of the month but models show no sign of any heatwave in the UK.

Can't see a significant enough warm spell propelling temps up enough to produce a finish in the 17s. My guess looks a bust.

Today was very cool, expect a fall tomorrow and I suspect we may well be in the 15s by this time next week. 

A good bet at this stage we will finish in the 16s, with every chance could be in the 15s. 

High chance June 2023 will be warmer than July 2023, but yes a late minute heat spike could throw a curve ball..

Edited July 14, 2023 by damianslaw

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Think the most likely scenario @damianslawis July this year will be nondescript as far as the CET is concerned.  Its just the incessant wet weather that is leaving people a bit scratchy.    

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Gonna need a little warm up at the end of the month to get near the high 16s.

Rainfall wise might end up wetter!

[damianslaw]

8 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Think the most likely scenario @damianslawis July this year will be nondescript as far as the CET is concerned.  Its just the incessant wet weather that is leaving people a bit scratchy.    

Plus lack of sun at least here. 

[Daniel*]

Surely the month is favoured to be below average at least on 1991-2020? And probably 1981-2010 which we are yet to accomplish this year at least across U.K.. Looking at some cooler nights next week as well.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Think @Daniel*the warmer nights are keeping the temperatures up to be honest with you.   It's on a knife edge currently.   

[Don]

2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Gonna need a little warm up at the end of the month to get near the high 16s.

Rainfall wise might end up wetter!

Gonna need a ghastly heat wave later in the month for my guess of 17.7C to be close to the mark!  

[LetItSnow!]

Just saw some graphs in the model output and looks persistently below average for at least the next 7-10 days. Interested (and excited, don’t shoot me!) to see the eventual tick downs. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Yep the latest ensembles shows persistently below average even for London!

At this rate could end up in the 15s!

[Frigid]

Not seen a upper chart this bullish on cool temperatures, right up to the end of the month.. 15C has to be possible. If we get a July 2015 type final week maybe 14C.. 

[Summer of 95]

It's remarkable how rare it is for June to be warmer than July by the CET. Even in the many years when June has clearly felt like the warmer of the two months it just doesn't seem to happen, though June warmer than August seems to be a bit more common. Last time was 1970 for June warmer than July.

Compare the winter equivalent, December colder than January,  which was almost becoming the norm for a time in the 90s and early 00s and is still quite frequent now.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.3C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall 65.7mm 102.8% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

16.4c to the 14th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[richie3846]

I think it's unlikely for the figure to drop below 16c in the next 7 days. Anything beyond that is stretching outside the reliable. There are no particularly cool days forecast, temperatures do seem to be around or slightly below average. Today, including last night is above average due to a mild night and temperatures which look likely to exceed 20c, so any cooler day would already have to counteract the slight increase from today's numbers. 

[reef]

The anomaly on the Hadley CET is +0.1C on the maxima and +0.5C on the minima to the 14th, so it looks like it has just been pretty close to average by day and night rather than one or another.

I think by the end, this month may be more notable for rainfall and dullness rather than being cool. It's typical of poorer summer months these days. Real "cold" summers or summer months are quite rare now it seems.

[LetItSnow!]

37 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

I think it's unlikely for the figure to drop below 16c in the next 7 days. Anything beyond that is stretching outside the reliable. There are no particularly cool days forecast, temperatures do seem to be around or slightly below average. Today, including last night is above average due to a mild night and temperatures which look likely to exceed 20c, so any cooler day would already have to counteract the slight increase from today's numbers. 

Nighttime temperatures have been boosted due to somewhat of a southwesterly element. A flick through some charts led me to see that we lose this in the coming week and while some nights may be closer to average the days will be cool, especially stuck under any rain. I also think nights could be quite cool between the 18th to the 22nd and I think it could bring us into the upper 15 to lower 16 mark. Uppers are consistently cool plus it looks like me may be going into a northwesterly set up around day 10 but who knows where that will end up.