July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Frigid]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Based on current model output, I suspect we won't be far off the average by mid month. Second half probably still likely to be above but perhaps early signs not to the extent some forecasts were going for.. 

Chances of this month coming under the June CET.. the last of which happened in 1970. That was also after quite a warm June (16.4C).

Would be quite something if it did occur. 

 

[SLEETY]

Really hope the c e t comes in below average, just to shut the METO up for once, constantly going on and on about global-warming, as if we don't know!! 

[Summer Sun]

14.8c to the 5th

1.2c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by Summer Sun

[Frigid]

Don't recall ever seeing the CET sitting at 14C, is this the first since 2012?

[LetItSnow!]

We’ll see a sharp tick up over the next few days but signs of a proper low pressure fest and warm uppers being eroded away pretty fast. I wonder where we’ll stand by the middle of the month. Probably not far from the long term average on either side. A cool July would be interesting after such a warm June. 

[Frigid]

3 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

We’ll see a sharp tick up over the next few days but signs of a proper low pressure fest and warm uppers being eroded away pretty fast. I wonder where we’ll stand by the middle of the month. Probably not far from the long term average on either side. A cool July would be interesting after such a warm June. 

I'm banking it being cooler than June, purely on statistical interest. I'm thinking by Monday, the CET will be somewhere in the upper 15s/low 16s. The warm spell is very brief, and Saturday doesn't look to warm given the cold front and torrential rain forecast. The outlook is very reminiscent of July 2017, which saw a warm blip and suppressed temperatures after.. with quite a lot of rain. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 hours ago, Frigid said:

I'm banking it being cooler than June, purely on statistical interest. I'm thinking by Monday, the CET will be somewhere in the upper 15s/low 16s. The warm spell is very brief, and Saturday doesn't look to warm given the cold front and torrential rain forecast. The outlook is very reminiscent of July 2017, which saw a warm blip and suppressed temperatures after.. with quite a lot of rain. 

If I'm honest this July as things stand on CFS V2 will be average temperatures overall, but the fact there's so much rain doesn't make it particularly nice.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.1C -0.9C below average. Rainfall 11.5mm 18% of average.

[The PIT]

Woods average speed 90mph highest since Brett Lee

[Roger J Smith]

4 hours ago, Frigid said:

Don't recall ever seeing the CET sitting at 14C, is this the first since 2012?

Did you mean daily or running means?

Surprisingly the answer to a running mean below 14 is 2013, the first two days (14.1, 12.5) produced a running mean of 13.3 to 2nd but that quickly warmed up. The last multiple July days below 14.0 were not in July 2012 (when there were six of them) but running means were below 14.0 for 1st, 2nd; there was a running mean of 15.1 as late as the 21st before a warmer spell. The coldest mean daily readings in July 2012 were 13.1 on 1st, and 13.2 on 12th and 30th. 

In July 2015 there were five in the last eight days of which the coldest was 12.8 on 31st. July 2016 had running means below 15 to the 4th. July 2016 had four days below 14.0 (2nd, 6th, 12th, 13th). The lowest running mean was 14.3 on 2nd.

2019 had one day below 14 (13.5 on 2nd). July 2020 also started cool and recorded five days below 14.0 and a running mean of 14.7 by 12th. The lowest value was 12.8 on the 7th, also 13.1 on the 20th.

The running mean last year was only 14.6 after the 5th but as with 2021, July 2022 had no means below 14.3.

In recent decades the coolest spell in July was 9th to 13th of July 1993 which had values of 12.7, 11.1, 11.1, 11.8, and 11.2. That dragged the running mean down to 14.3 by 13th and it only recovered to 15.0 after another cool spell late in the month (25th and 26th both 13.9). 

[Don]

17 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Really hope the c e t comes in below average, just to shut the METO up for once, constantly going on and on about global-warming, as if we don't know!! 

If the monthly CET comes in below average, it won't make any difference to the Met Office regarding global warming!

53 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Did you mean daily or running means?

Surprisingly the answer to a running mean below 14 is 2013, the first two days (14.1, 12.5) produced a running mean of 13.3 to 2nd but that quickly warmed up. The last multiple July days below 14.0 were not in July 2012 (when there were six of them) but running means were below 14.0 for 1st, 2nd; there was a running mean of 15.1 as late as the 21st before a warmer spell. The coldest mean daily readings in July 2012 were 13.1 on 1st, and 13.2 on 12th and 30th. 

Yes, I remember the opening days of July 2013 being on the cool side, following a cool June.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Don

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

If the monthly CET comes in below average, it won't make any difference to the Met Office regarding global warming!

Yes, I remember the opening days of July 2013 being on the cool side, following a cool June.

No, probably not, Don ... Given the bigger picture: 

The planet saw its hottest day on record this week. It's a record that will be broken again and again | CNN

EDITION.CNN.COM

---

This week’s global temperature records are probably the warmest in at least 100,000 years, one climate scientist explained.

 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

No, probably not, Don ... Given the bigger picture: 

The planet saw its hottest day on record this week. It's a record that will be broken again and again | CNN

EDITION.CNN.COM

---

This week’s global temperature records are probably the warmest in at least 100,000 years, one climate scientist explained.

 

Exactly!

A grim reading and the fact that the new record will not likely last long, there really is no getting away from it now!!

Edited July 6, 2023 by Don

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Did you mean daily or running means?

Surprisingly the answer to a running mean below 14 is 2013, the first two days (14.1, 12.5) produced a running mean of 13.3 to 2nd but that quickly warmed up. The last multiple July days below 14.0 were not in July 2012 (when there were six of them) but running means were below 14.0 for 1st, 2nd; there was a running mean of 15.1 as late as the 21st before a warmer spell. The coldest mean daily readings in July 2012 were 13.1 on 1st, and 13.2 on 12th and 30th. 

In July 2015 there were five in the last eight days of which the coldest was 12.8 on 31st. July 2016 had running means below 15 to the 4th. July 2016 had four days below 14.0 (2nd, 6th, 12th, 13th). The lowest running mean was 14.3 on 2nd.

2019 had one day below 14 (13.5 on 2nd). July 2020 also started cool and recorded five days below 14.0 and a running mean of 14.7 by 12th. The lowest value was 12.8 on the 7th, also 13.1 on the 20th.

The running mean last year was only 14.6 after the 5th but as with 2021, July 2022 had no means below 14.3.

In recent decades the coolest spell in July was 9th to 13th of July 1993 which had values of 12.7, 11.1, 11.1, 11.8, and 11.2. That dragged the running mean down to 14.3 by 13th and it only recovered to 15.0 after another cool spell late in the month (25th and 26th both 13.9). 

July 93 was a bit of a shocker, here I rank 1993 up there with 2007 and 2012 as contender for worse summer last 30 years. There was barely any warmth at all, not as wet as 2007 or 2012 mind. 

[Don]

19 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

July 93 was a bit of a shocker, here I rank 1993 up there with 2007 and 2012 as contender for worse summer last 30 years. There was barely any warmth at all, not as wet as 2007 or 2012 mind. 

Didn't July 1993 start off being decent before a cold front moved down from the north (around the 9th?) causing temperatures to plummet rapidly in a short space of time and summer thereon was cool?

Edited July 6, 2023 by Don

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Didn't July 1993 start off being decent before a cold front moved down from the north (around the 9th?) causing temperatures to plummet rapidly in a short space of time and summer thereon was cool?

Vague memories of detail, I just remember there was little warmth about here especially school holidays. 

[Roger J Smith]

Yes Don, first few days of July 1993 were not as cool. 

Five day average of 11.6 ranks tied second coldest of all time in July. Same five days 9-13 averaged 11.6 in July 1840 and 7-11 1888 also 11.6. 

July 1-5 1907 was colder at 11.2. 

Closest contenders to tied 2nd coldest were

5_ 1836 __ Jul 19-23 or 20-24 ___ 11.7 __ includes coldest July mean of 8.7 (20)

t6 _1813 __ Jul 1-5 __ 11.9

t6 _1892 __ Jul 17-21 __ 11.9

t8 _1879 __ Jul 2-6 __ 12.0

t8 _1902 __ Jul 18-22 __ 12.0

t8 _1913 __ Jul 5-9 __ 12.0

t8 _1919 __ Jul 1-5 __ 12.0

t8 _1954 ___Jul 3-7 or 4-8 __ 12.0

t13_ 1877 __ Jul 4-8 __ 12.1 // 1879 __ Jul 8-12 __ 12.1 // 1978 __ Jul 3-7 __ 12.1

1796 __ Jul 6-10 or 7-11 _ 12.2 

(1965 1-5 was 12.3)

 

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

14.9c to the 6th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

14.9c to the 6th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

That will rise from today, over the weekend and then plateau next week?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, Don said:

That will rise from today, over the weekend and then plateau next week?

It wouldn't surprise me at all on that @Donto be honest with you.   

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Can we see these sort of charts verify in the winter as well please ?

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Can we see these sort of charts verify in the winter as well please ?

I’ll second that suggestion

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.6C +0.5C above average. Rainfall 11.5mm 18% of the average.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

15.5 to the 7th

0.5 below the 61 to 90 average

0.6 below the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

15.5 to the 7th

0.5 below the 61 to 90 average

0.6 below the 81 to 10 average

Big jump after yesterday.