July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Reckon @Don an average July is still favoured according to CFS V2.   

[Don]

Just now, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Reckon @Don an average July is still favoured according to CFS V2.   

Could well be but still plenty of time for big changes.

[damianslaw]

Another rise tomorrow, then a probable stall and drop. A relatively cool first half to July could well be on the cards, and no sign of a significant warm up through the third week. I think we can safely say a very warm July is not going to happen this year, still time, just for a warm one to materialise but will take a major warm spell final staging and at this juncture its not easy to see a clear path to such an evolution.

Also could end up a notably wet July. Sunshine levels in west at least likely to be below par, first half looking very dull indeed.

All pay back for that 4-5 week sunny warm dry spell from 10 May to 17 June I think! Always say and will continue to say May and June best months here 100%.

Edited July 8, 2023 by damianslaw

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Another rise tomorrow, then a probable stall and drop. A relatively cool first half to July could well be on the cards, and no sign of a significant warm up through the third week. I think we can safely say a very warm July is not going to happen this year, still time, just for a warm one to materialise but will take a major warm spell final staging and at this juncture its not easy to see a clear path to such an evolution.

Also could end up a notably wet July. Sunshine levels in west at least likely to be below par, first half looking very dull indeed.

All pay back for that 4-5 week sunny warm dry spell from 10 May to 17 June I think! Always say and will continue to say May and June best months here 100%.

Thinking an indifferent July now would be the best outcome, regarding sunshine there will be regional variations, Eastern parts actually haven't done too badly this July so far, but yes it could be more favourable.   

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is at 13 mm after seven days, looks quite wet over the interval on GFS reaching about 80-90 mm grid average if not more by 24th. 

CET will peak in low 16s, then looks as though it will stall around 16 C next week, and possibly even drop back into 15s later in the month.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

11 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP is at 13 mm after seven days, looks quite wet over the interval on GFS reaching about 80-90 mm grid average if not more by 24th. 

CET will peak in low 16s, then looks as though it will stall around 16 C next week, and possibly even drop back into 15s later in the month.

It all depends on where the winds are coming from really @Roger J Smith and we are stuck in a westerly regime at present.   

[Dancerwithwings]

11 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

It all depends on where the winds are coming from really @Roger J Smith and we are stuck in a westerly regime at present.   

Absolutely, but Roger did state on the present GFS output,  yes it’s all and always with a pinch of salt….lots of salt come Winter trust me lol 

Anyway atm it’s just 8 days in to the month….it’s a long, long road

Edited July 8, 2023 by Dancerwithwings

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16C +0.8C above average. Rainfall 39.4mm 61.7% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

16.2c to the 8th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[LetItSnow!]

Wont go much higher than this for a while at least before it probably starts to slide down 

[reef]

38 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Wont go much higher than this for a while at least before it probably starts to slide down 

Today and tomorrow will see a rise and then it looks pretty average. The rest of the week also looks a bit warmer than it did (low-mid 20s instead of high teens/low 20s) so I think we'll still be in the mid-16s by next weekend.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 minute ago, reef said:

Today and tomorrow will see a rise and then it looks pretty average. The rest of the week also looks a bit warmer than it did (low-mid 20s instead of high teens/low 20s) so I think we'll still be in the mid-16s by next weekend.

Agree on that @reefcompletely.   

[damianslaw]

Not expecting much change in the CET this week, a very average one ahead, a little cooler than average further north.

Question is whether we will be below or above the CET mean at half way stage. 

Edited July 9, 2023 by damianslaw

[Derecho]

25 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Not expecting much change in the CET this week, a very average one ahead, a little cooler than average further north.

Question is whether we will be below or above the CET mean at half way stage. 

Latest GFS has the CET at 16.2C up to 16th and still has it at that point up to the 24th.

[Roger J Smith]

Somebody mentioned a few days ago that the last July to run cooler than its preceding June was 1970. The closest call to that was 1993 (June 15.0, July 15.1). Second closest was 2007 (15.1, 15.3). 

Before 1970, this is the full list of CET values for July that were lower than June in the same year: They are presented in order of July deficits. Equal cases are included (and are at the end of the list, and also 0.1 warmer cases like 1993). Note every year ending in zero from 1910 to 1970 made this list ...

Rank ___ Year ___ JUN __ JUL ___ July deficit __ since previous (not counting equal or up 0.1 cases)

_t01_____ 1676 __ 18.0 _ 16.0 __ 2.0 ____________4

_t01_____ 1858 __ 16.8 _ 14.8 __ 2.0 ___________12

_03 _____ 1846 __ 18.2 _ 16.5 __ 1.7 ____________ 1

_04 _____ 1822 __ 17.1 _ 15.6 __ 1.5 ____________ 5

_05 _____ 1940 __ 16.4 _ 15.1 __ 1.3 ___________ 10

_06 _____ 1970 __ 16.4 _ 15.2 __ 1.2 ____________ 4

_t07_____ 1786 __ 16.1 _ 15.0 __ 1.1 ___________ 28 

_t07_____ 1842 __ 15.6 _ 14.5 __ 1.1 ____________ 2

_t09_____ 1672 __ 16.0 _ 15.0 __ 1.0 ____________ (14 or more, first of series)

_t09_____ 1817 __ 15.1 _ 14.1 __ 1.0 ____________ 13

_t09_____ 1960 __ 16.1 _ 15.1 __ 1.0 ____________ 10

_t12_____ 1743 __ 15.6 _ 14.9 __ 0.7 _____________17

_t12_____ 1755 __ 15.7 _ 15.0 __ 0.7 _____________12

_t12_____ 1965 __ 14.7 _ 14.0 __ 0.7 ______________5

_t15_____ 1798 __ 16.9 _ 16.3 __ 0.6 _____________12

_t15_____ 1845 __ 14.9 _ 14.3 __ 0.6 ______________3

_t17_____ 1683 __ 16.0 _ 15.5 __ 0.5 ______________7

_t17_____ 1685 __ 14.5 _ 14.0 __ 0.5 ______________2

_t17_____ 1877 __ 15.2 _ 14.7 __ 0.5 _____________19

_t17_____ 1910 __ 14.7 _ 14.2 __ 0.5 _____________33

_t21_____ 1726 __ 16.4 _ 16.0 __ 0.4 ______________ 2

_t21_____ 1758 __ 14.6 _ 14.2 __ 0.4 ______________ 3

_t21_____ 1919 __ 14.3 _ 13.9 __ 0.4 ______________ 9

_t21_____ 1966 __ 15.4 _ 15.0 __ 0.4 ______________ 1

_t25_____ 1724 __ 15.3 _ 15.0 __ 0.3 ______________39

_t25_____ 1840 __ 14.1 _ 13.8 __ 0.3 ______________18

_t25_____ 1920 __ 14.4 _ 14.1 __ 0.3 ______________ 1

_t25_____ 1950 __ 16.2 _ 15.9 __ 0.3 ______________10

_t29_____ 1802 __ 13.7 _ 13.5 __ 0.2 ______________ 4

_t29_____ 1804 __ 16.1 _ 15.9 __ 0.2 ______________ 2

_t31_____ 1922 __ 13.8 _ 13.7 __ 0.1 ______________ 2

_t31_____ 1930 __ 15.3 _ 15.2 __ 0.1 ______________ 8

_t33_____ 1662 __ 15.0 _ 15.0 __ 0.0 ______________ first 0.0 or deficit of series, 10 years to next one

_t33_____ 1711 __ 15.5 _ 15.5 __ 0.0 ______________ 26 years since a July deficit, 13 years to next one

_t33_____ 1785 __ 16.1 _ 16.1 __ 0.0 ______________ 27 years since a July deficit, 1 year to next one

_t33_____ 1866 __ 15.5 _ 15.5 __ 0.0 _______________ 8 years since a July deficit, 11 years to next one 

_t33_____ 1889 __ 15.3 _ 15.3 __ 0.0 _______________12 years since a July deficit, 7 years to next 0.0

_t33_____ 1896 __ 16.2 _ 16.2 __ 0.0 _______________19 years since a July deficit, 14 years to next one 

_---- _____ 1775 __ 16.6 _ 16.7 __ up 0.1 ___________ 20 years since a July deficit, 10 years to next 0.0

_---- _____ 1836 __ 15.3 _ 15.4 __ up 0.1 ___________ 14 years since a July deficit, 4 years to next deficit

_---- _____ 1993 __ 15.0 _ 15.1 __ up 0.1 ___________ 23 years since a July deficit, ?? years to next deficit

==============================

ANALYSIS: A total of 32 of 354 previous July were cooler and six more were equal, just three were 0.1 warmer like 1993. 

It would be 53 years between cases if 2023 qualifies. Previously, longest interval (not counting equal or up 0.1) was 39 years between 1685 and 1724 with one equal case (1711) in between those. It was 33 years from 1877 to 1910 with two equal cases (1889 and 1896) between those. 

Clusters of cooler months of July occurred around 1798 to 1804 (three of seven), 1840 to 1846 (four of seven), and 1919 to 1922 (three of four) which had consecutive cases in 1919 and 1920. 

A more recent cluster was 1960 to 1970 (four of eleven). This included the second consecutive cases (1965, 1966); 1785 and 1786 are also in the larger list.

[Frigid]

12 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Somebody mentioned a few days ago that the last July to run cooler than its preceding June was 1970. The closest call to that was 1993 (June 15.0, July 15.1). Second closest was 2007 (15.1, 15.3). 

Before 1970, this is the full list of CET values for July that were lower than June in the same year: They are presented in order of July deficits. Equal cases are included (and are at the end of the list, and also 0.1 warmer cases like 1993). Note every year ending in zero from 1910 to 1970 made this list ...

Rank ___ Year ___ JUN __ JUL ___ July deficit __ since previous (not counting equal or up 0.1 cases)

_t01_____ 1676 __ 18.0 _ 16.0 __ 2.0 ____________4

_t01_____ 1858 __ 16.8 _ 14.8 __ 2.0 ___________12

_03 _____ 1846 __ 18.2 _ 16.5 __ 1.7 ____________ 1

_04 _____ 1822 __ 17.1 _ 15.6 __ 1.5 ____________ 5

_05 _____ 1940 __ 16.4 _ 15.1 __ 1.3 ___________ 10

_06 _____ 1970 __ 16.4 _ 15.2 __ 1.2 ____________ 4

_t07_____ 1786 __ 16.1 _ 15.0 __ 1.1 ___________ 28 

_t07_____ 1842 __ 15.6 _ 14.5 __ 1.1 ____________ 2

_t09_____ 1672 __ 16.0 _ 15.0 __ 1.0 ____________ (14 or more, first of series)

_t09_____ 1817 __ 15.1 _ 14.1 __ 1.0 ____________ 13

_t09_____ 1960 __ 16.1 _ 15.1 __ 1.0 ____________ 10

_t12_____ 1743 __ 15.6 _ 14.9 __ 0.7 _____________17

_t12_____ 1755 __ 15.7 _ 15.0 __ 0.7 _____________12

_t12_____ 1965 __ 14.7 _ 14.0 __ 0.7 ______________5

_t15_____ 1798 __ 16.9 _ 16.3 __ 0.6 _____________12

_t15_____ 1845 __ 14.9 _ 14.3 __ 0.6 ______________3

_t17_____ 1683 __ 16.0 _ 15.5 __ 0.5 ______________7

_t17_____ 1685 __ 14.5 _ 14.0 __ 0.5 ______________2

_t17_____ 1877 __ 15.2 _ 14.7 __ 0.5 _____________19

_t17_____ 1910 __ 14.7 _ 14.2 __ 0.5 _____________33

_t21_____ 1726 __ 16.4 _ 16.0 __ 0.4 ______________ 2

_t21_____ 1758 __ 14.6 _ 14.2 __ 0.4 ______________ 3

_t21_____ 1919 __ 14.3 _ 13.9 __ 0.4 ______________ 9

_t21_____ 1966 __ 15.4 _ 15.0 __ 0.4 ______________ 1

_t25_____ 1724 __ 15.3 _ 15.0 __ 0.3 ______________39

_t25_____ 1840 __ 14.1 _ 13.8 __ 0.3 ______________18

_t25_____ 1920 __ 14.4 _ 14.1 __ 0.3 ______________ 1

_t25_____ 1950 __ 16.2 _ 15.9 __ 0.3 ______________10

_t29_____ 1802 __ 13.7 _ 13.5 __ 0.2 ______________ 4

_t29_____ 1804 __ 16.1 _ 15.9 __ 0.2 ______________ 2

_t31_____ 1922 __ 13.8 _ 13.7 __ 0.1 ______________ 2

_t31_____ 1930 __ 15.3 _ 15.2 __ 0.1 ______________ 8

_t33_____ 1662 __ 15.0 _ 15.0 __ 0.0 ______________ first 0.0 or deficit of series, 10 years to next one

_t33_____ 1711 __ 15.5 _ 15.5 __ 0.0 ______________ 26 years since a July deficit, 13 years to next one

_t33_____ 1785 __ 16.1 _ 16.1 __ 0.0 ______________ 27 years since a July deficit, 1 year to next one

_t33_____ 1866 __ 15.5 _ 15.5 __ 0.0 _______________ 8 years since a July deficit, 11 years to next one 

_t33_____ 1889 __ 15.3 _ 15.3 __ 0.0 _______________12 years since a July deficit, 7 years to next 0.0

_t33_____ 1896 __ 16.2 _ 16.2 __ 0.0 _______________19 years since a July deficit, 14 years to next one 

_---- _____ 1775 __ 16.6 _ 16.7 __ up 0.1 ___________ 20 years since a July deficit, 10 years to next 0.0

_---- _____ 1836 __ 15.3 _ 15.4 __ up 0.1 ___________ 14 years since a July deficit, 4 years to next deficit

_---- _____ 1993 __ 15.0 _ 15.1 __ up 0.1 ___________ 23 years since a July deficit, ?? years to next deficit

==============================

ANALYSIS: A total of 32 of 354 previous July were cooler and six more were equal, just three were 0.1 warmer like 1993. 

It would be 53 years between cases if 2023 qualifies. Previously, longest interval (not counting equal or up 0.1) was 39 years between 1685 and 1724 with one equal case (1711) in between those. It was 33 years from 1877 to 1910 with two equal cases (1889 and 1896) between those. 

Clusters of cooler months of July occurred around 1798 to 1804 (three of seven), 1840 to 1846 (four of seven), and 1919 to 1922 (three of four) which had consecutive cases in 1919 and 1920. 

A more recent cluster was 1960 to 1970 (four of eleven). This included the second consecutive cases (1965, 1966); 1785 and 1786 are also in the larger list.

Thanks for the insight Roger, great as always.

Looks like if we were to beat the 2.0C CET gap between June and July we'd need a July CET of 15.0 or below. Looks unlikely so I'd place my bets around a 1C delta. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

16.4 to the 9th

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

[LetItSnow!]

19 hours ago, reef said:

Today and tomorrow will see a rise and then it looks pretty average. The rest of the week also looks a bit warmer than it did (low-mid 20s instead of high teens/low 20s) so I think we'll still be in the mid-16s by next weekend.

Watching Gavin's forecast and I'm surprised at this, though perhaps the outlook has changed since you posted this, as the models look thoroughly cool for at least the next ten days and the anomaly for to the 18th showed below average. Nights may save it. I still think a slow tick down will probably happen, especially in any days when weather fronts clear in air masses and potentially get some cool nights. One thing I've noticed about this year is sometimes the nights have gotten cooler than I'd expect them to.

[summer blizzard]

3 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Watching Gavin's forecast and I'm surprised at this, though perhaps the outlook has changed since you posted this, as the models look thoroughly cool for at least the next ten days and the anomaly for to the 18th showed below average. Nights may save it. I still think a slow tick down will probably happen, especially in any days when weather fronts clear in air masses and potentially get some cool nights. One thing I've noticed about this year is sometimes the nights have gotten cooler than I'd expect them to.

The CET zone is biased a little south and we have winds from the WSW quite often. Enough to keep any significant cool uppers away and maintain a probably cloudy at night maritime flow. 

[Roger J Smith]

Guidance a bit cooler today, I would estimate a slow drop into the high 15s then steady in mid-15s later. 

After some wetter runs recently, back to a more moderate 60-70 mm outlook for EWP, including current total around 24 mm after nine days. The heavier rainfalls stay mostly in Ireland and Scotland, and southeast England sees only 10-15 mm more (to 26th). 

This may resemble 2020 when it stayed cool until the end of July and became hot for a few weeks mainly in August. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Depends where the winds come from @Roger J Smithas I stated in another post.  

[Roger J Smith]

* not visibly showing annoyance *

[Roger J Smith]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

The CET zone is biased a little south and we have winds from the WSW quite often. Enough to keep any significant cool uppers away and maintain a probably cloudy at night maritime flow. 

and the latest guidance shows an endless string of similar days with 19-20 max and 10-12 min, which would suggest 15.5 type means, thing is, Pershore is one third of the CET and it tends to run quite cool any time skies clear, compared to many locations in the midlands. Also the northern location Stonyhurst would run closer to 18 max in this sort of set-up. But I think your basic premise is sound, just adding some details. It is a maritime flow that often has a northerly source coming at Britain from the w.s.w. to w.n.w., across rather warmed up ocean temps, net effect is a whole lot of -1 C anomaly. Quite a contrast to last July. 

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Watching Gavin's forecast and I'm surprised at this, though perhaps the outlook has changed since you posted this, as the models look thoroughly cool for at least the next ten days and the anomaly for to the 18th showed below average. Nights may save it. I still think a slow tick down will probably happen, especially in any days when weather fronts clear in air masses and potentially get some cool nights. One thing I've noticed about this year is sometimes the nights have gotten cooler than I'd expect them to.

In any other year, the current synoptics would be delivering much cooler CET values, alas the warm SSTs are inflating temps. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

I'll say this @damianslawbut I have agreed with you wholeheartedly that this July is a 1997 and 2009 clone it really is.