July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Addicks Fan 1981]

If I'm looking at things in a balanced way I do think the CET will be relatively stable this week, after Friday I am not so certain and that'll all hinge on where the trough is positioned and where our winds are imported from.   

[LetItSnow!]

A rough estimate made by me from the models is 16.1°C up to the 26th. After that it could go one of three ways. We could have a late month plunge of chilly air to take us into the 15s and cement us with the coolest July since 2020 or 2012m or a push of hot air could take us into the mid to high 16s... or we could stay generally unsettled with cool-ish days and mild nights and come out with a C.E.T. around the figure. Bear in mind a C.E.T. of 16.1°C is exactly the longterm average but -0.8°C below the 1991-2020 figure. I think we'll definitely be cooler than the 1991-2020 average but touch and go whether we go under the 1961-1990 figure. I'd like to think so for my own interests. It's a privellege getting a colder than average month, you have to take what you can get! I think a July like this one would have seemed quite normal 40 years ago but our expectations are changing.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

A rough estimate made by me from the models is 16.1°C up to the 26th. After that it could go one of three ways. We could have a late month plunge of chilly air to take us into the 15s and cement us with the coolest July since 2020 or 2012m or a push of hot air could take us into the mid to high 16s... or we could stay generally unsettled with cool-ish days and mild nights and come out with a C.E.T. around the figure. Bear in mind a C.E.T. of 16.1°C is exactly the longterm average but -0.8°C below the 1991-2020 figure. I think we'll definitely be cooler than the 1991-2020 average but touch and go whether we go under the 1961-1990 figure. I'd like to think so for my own interests. It's a privellege getting a colder than average month, you have to take what you can get! I think a July like this one would have seemed quite normal 40 years ago but our expectations are changing.

Think the most likely scenario would be for this July to replicate the 2009 CET if we have the winds from the right direction.    

[Shillitocettwo]

  I would describe the pressure chart synoptic as the 'jammed launderette' at the moment, NW Europe has a rather persistent 'Washing Machine Low' throwing its 'cycles' of rain at us and SE Europe has the persistent high pressure dome  'tumble dryer' ie. the intense heat

[Summer Sun]

16.4c to the 16th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 16.3C +0.5C above average. Rainfall 84mm  131.5% of the monthly average.

Looking like we will go for 100mm this month.

[richie3846]

I'm predicting this time next week, well still be within 0.2c of the current figure of 16.4c, so 16.2c to 16.6c. I'm expecting slightly cooler nights to be compensated with day temps a touch higher than last week. 

[SqueakheartLW]

Definitely not going to be a record breaker in terms of the mean CET if current form continues. At the start of July we were ahead of some of the top 10 July's in terms of the mean rolling CET but as the month has gone on we have fallen down the top 10 then off the bottom of this list.

The current state of this July vs the top 10 warmest July's is below. Negative anomalies show 2023 below that particular July at this stage, positive ones above.

As can be seen July 2023 is now over a degree below the 10th placed July at this stage and this gap has steadily grown over the last few days and the way things are going it looks like we're going to finish well short of the top 10.

A different story entirely when looking at the summer as a whole so far including the June as well. The summer rating is as shown.

Despite the poor July so far we are still well within the top 10 in terms of summer as a whole up to this stage which means even if July finishes around average we are still well placed to get a top 10 summer. A decent August should seal that deal but if we go on to have a poor August too then a top 10 finish will be in serious doubt.

[Scorcher]

The only good/interesting thing about this month so far is the likelihood that it will end cooler than June- which is a very rare thing and hasn't happened for some time.

[Summer Sun]

16.3c to the 17th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.2C +0.3C above average. Rainfall 86.1mm 134.7% of the monthly average.

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

16.3c to the 17th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

The CET zone seems to be just about holding on to average means, further north it is turning into a chilly July.

[reef]

17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The CET zone seems to be just about holding on to average means, further north it is turning into a chilly July.

Believe it or not its more the other way around. To the 17th Aberdeen Dyce was +0.5C, Carlisle +0.1C and Boulmer +0.6C. Further south, Bedford -0.8C, Benson -0.7C and Pershore -0.6C.

The month so far - in the British Isles

WWW.MET.READING.AC.UK

 

[Weather-history]

It's looking more and more that's it going be one of those occasions  where there' s a contrast between this month and its predecessor last year.

July 2006/2007, August 1911/1912 were spectacular  examples for summer. 

Other examples

January 1795/1796 for winter

March 2012/2013 for spring

November 1993/1994 for autumn 

[LetItSnow!]

27 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

It's looking more and more that's it going be one of those occasions  where there' s a contrast between this month and its predecessor last year.

July 2006/2007, August 1911/1912 were spectacular  examples for summer. 

Other examples

January 1795/1796 for winter

March 2012/2013 for spring

November 1993/1994 for autumn 

Summer 1921 and summer 1922 are overall were exceptionally constraining seasons and contrasting years 

[Earthshine]

56 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

It's looking more and more that's it going be one of those occasions  where there' s a contrast between this month and its predecessor last year.

July 2006/2007, August 1911/1912 were spectacular  examples for summer. 

Other examples

January 1795/1796 for winter

March 2012/2013 for spring

November 1993/1994 for autumn 

We just had the hottest June on record.  Don't think it's quite that extreme.  And we are only halfway through summer

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

We just had the hottest June on record.  Don't think it's quite that extreme.  And we are only halfway through summer

I think you misunderstand my post. I'm talking about comparing this July with July last year. 

 

[Weather-history]

51 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Summer 1921 and summer 1922 are overall were exceptionally constraining seasons and contrasting years 

July 1988/1989 contrast

July 1910/1911

There's going to be a contrast between this July and last July. I think the greatest contrast will probably be more with sunshine and rainfall levels. 

[Optimus Prime]

13 hours ago, reef said:

Believe it or not its more the other way around. To the 17th Aberdeen Dyce was +0.5C, Carlisle +0.1C and Boulmer +0.6C. Further south, Bedford -0.8C, Benson -0.7C and Pershore -0.6C.

The month so far - in the British Isles

WWW.MET.READING.AC.UK

 

It is true though the south has warmed, relative to the previous 30 year periods, quite a bit faster compared to the north.

[Earthshine]

37 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I think you misunderstand my post. I'm talking about comparing this July with July last year. 

 

Ah my bad, sorry!  Yes it's been one hell of a front-loaded summer so far.  

[richie3846]

Whilst there has been talk of a cool down, and getting into the 15s, over the last week or so, in my view, it's off the cards now. I've been sifting through forecasts and we have a cool night coming up this week, but then a really mild night or two, with an unsettled weekend, with the winds veering away from the north west again. Day time temperatures may be low on a wet day over the weekend, but on sunnier days they look similar to the current temperatures, 20 to 22c.

I suspect by this time next week, we'll be sat approximately where we are now, and given the unlikely scenario of genuinely cool weather in the final days of July, I suspect it'll end up similar to now, or warmer, given the probability that a warmer spell will show up at some point in then near future. 

I won't be offended if anyone uses the new 'disagree' button

[Frigid]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

It's looking more and more that's it going be one of those occasions  where there' s a contrast between this month and its predecessor last year.

July 2006/2007, August 1911/1912 were spectacular  examples for summer. 

Other examples

January 1795/1796 for winter

March 2012/2013 for spring

November 1993/1994 for autumn 

Other examples:

December 2010/2011

July 2012/2013

February 2018/2019

April 2020/2021

[Frigid]

44 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

Whilst there has been talk of a cool down, and getting into the 15s, over the last week or so, in my view, it's off the cards now. I've been sifting through forecasts and we have a cool night coming up this week, but then a really mild night or two, with an unsettled weekend, with the winds veering away from the north west again. Day time temperatures may be low on a wet day over the weekend, but on sunnier days they look similar to the current temperatures, 20 to 22c.

I suspect by this time next week, we'll be sat approximately where we are now, and given the unlikely scenario of genuinely cool weather in the final days of July, I suspect it'll end up similar to now, or warmer, given the probability that a warmer spell will show up at some point in then near future. 

I won't be offended if anyone uses the new 'disagree' button

This month does have parallels with August 2008, in the way that it's quite cool at day but rarely chilly at night. The CET for that month was also in the 16s. 

[Don]

26 minutes ago, Frigid said:

This month does have parallels with August 2008, in the way that it's quite cool at day but rarely chilly at night. The CET for that month was also in the 16s. 

Yes, I have been thinking that, too.

[Summer Sun]

16.2c to the 18th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average