Autumn 2023

[simshady]

Very autumnal this morning. Nice! 

[Bristawl Si]

Grey, dull, cloudy but

v warm for 09.00 on 1st Oct, at 19c.

[Alderc 2.0]

Can’t complain being down the beach walking the dog at 9am on the 1st of October and it’s already 18Z.

Whats not so cool is I can see the edge of the cloud sat out in the channel! Double annoying given there is no meaningless directly south of that line until you get to Ghana or the Ivory Coast!!

[SunSean]

Incomplete until tomorrow but until the other stations data comes in, here is the sunshine amounts per county for 2023.

East Sussex were the only county to breach 200 hours but many places got more than their July or even August totals.

Fully updated table to be posted tomorrow in the sunshine watch thread

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, SunSean said:

Troll cloud again for the UK today- crystal clear sunshine for mainland Europe, the ugly grey sheet for UK! We're the country always picked last for the prom

 

As I said above this kind of setup seems to be becoming increasingly frequent: warm sunny weather following a trajectory Iberia-France-Low Countries, and completely missing the UK. So much so that I would expect Brussels and Amsterdam to be significantly sunnier than London these days, while 30 years ago (say) they might have had similar sunshine records.

[Summer8906]

27 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Can’t complain being down the beach walking the dog at 9am on the 1st of October and it’s already 18Z.

Whats not so cool is I can see the edge of the cloud sat out in the channel! Double annoying given there is no meaningless directly south of that line until you get to Ghana or the Ivory Coast!!

It often seems to be the case that the UK is duller than much of the Channel, never mind the continent. Not the first time I've noticed the edge of the cloud out over the sea somewhere.

Similar here, dull, gloomy and very, very humid. In terms of light level, it was positively wintry at 8am. Winter-like light here, summer-like temperatures in France. We're really hard done by in the UK for weather.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

29 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Can’t complain being down the beach walking the dog at 9am on the 1st of October and it’s already 18Z.

I wonder whether that was a Freudian slip on the light levels at 9am: typical of 18Z (i.e. 7pm)

17 hours ago, razorgrain said:

If you believe what some will say, statistics suggest a warmer October preludes a cold winter. I guess an average to cool October just gives us an average or above average winter by contrast.

Goes either way, I guess, but 1969, 1978 and 1995 were all warm and all were followed by seasonable winters.

[MP-R]

Very mild start but grey grey grey. Unfortunately I’ve driven west to Swansea where we have the added pleasure of drizzle…

Come on high pressure… move in please!

[Summer8906]

9 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Was laughing at the article not you.

Ah, sorry!

[carinthian]

Hello October. More of the same following the warmest September ever in these parts. This morningS view from Alpendorf.

C

[StingJet]

32 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Incomplete until tomorrow but until the other stations data comes in, here is the sunshine amounts per county for 2023.

East Sussex were the only county to breach 200 hours but many places got more than their July or even August totals.

Fully updated table to be posted tomorrow in the sunshine watch thread

Good work mate 

My stats  (Valley Met/ Climate Station) . not fairing too well for comparison     2022 vs 2023 vs 1991-2020 Mean
September generally warmer,  duller and wetter than the mean by some margin 
Warmer due to the fine and settled spell at the start of the month , but thereafter downhill into typical Autumn weather for this part of the UK


 

Edited October 1, 2023 by StingJet

[Summer8906]

9 hours ago, baddie said:

This is the 7th time September 30th was unsettled. We didnt have a good 30/9 since 2016, though 2018 was dry but cloudy

Here it was dry, for the first time since 2018. Mostly cloudy, though became brighter in the afternoon.

Last sunny September 30th was 2015, though we also had fine days in 2014 (afternoon only, I think) and 2011.

[Summer8906]

18 hours ago, infiniteblackskies said:

Praying that cold October spell comes to fruition and not that nasty heatwave. It's time for stuff to cool down!

I'd say November is the best time to cool down. Once we get beyond the first week of November, mild weather is almost invariably dull and often wet (rare exceptions include 1983, 1989 and 2011 - but they are rare) - whereas fine spells after that date are generally frosty.

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

9 hours ago, baddie said:

I like warm days in october, but cold and foggy nights. A sunny day, with a mnimum of 4c and a maximum of 18c is perfect for October

I knew September would be one of the hottest on record, but I didnt expect it to beat the record by such a wide margin

Also remarkable that September was actually hotter than June in London, given June was basically sunny until the 25th whereas in September, the sunny weather only lasted until the 9th and it was much cloudier thereafter.

A sign, I guess, of what a week-long but extreme hot spell, persistent warm nights, and lack of anything cool can do.

With the caveat that I'm relying on second-hand reports for the first 3 weeks or so, September 2023 would in no way be amongst the best months of September in my lifetime for weather though, due to being mostly unsettled in the second half. Years that would beat it (by featuring more prolonged, if less intense, fine sunny spells) would include 1979, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2014 and 2020.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

 

As I said above this kind of setup seems to be becoming increasingly frequent: warm sunny weather following a trajectory Iberia-France-Low Countries, and completely missing the UK. So much so that I would expect Brussels and Amsterdam to be significantly sunnier than London these days, while 30 years ago (say) they might have had similar sunshine records.

Thing is the warmth is not missing us, it's very warm under this cloud, it's just we are still stuck under yesterday's rain front, although it's dying for rain production, the cloud still persists, for now anyway.

[alexisj9]

24 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Also remarkable that September was actually hotter than June in London, given June was basically sunny until the 25th whereas in September, the sunny weather only lasted until the 9th and it was much cloudier thereafter.

A sign, I guess, of what a week-long but extreme hot spell, persistent warm nights, and lack of anything cool can do.

With the caveat that I'm relying on second-hand reports for the first 3 weeks or so, September 2023 would in no way be amongst the best months of September in my lifetime for weather though, due to being mostly unsettled in the second half. Years that would beat it (by featuring more prolonged, if less intense, fine sunny spells) would include 1979, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2014 and 2020.

It wasn't just that warm spell though, London didn't get a lot of days under 20⁰ it was a warm month regardless of the heat wave.

[baddie]

40 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I'd say November is the best time to cool down. Once we get beyond the first week of November, mild weather is almost invariably dull and often wet (rare exceptions include 1983, 1989 and 2011 - but they are rare) - whereas fine spells after that date are generally frosty.

 

A Feb 2019 to start November would be nice, followed by a Nov 2010 end

[danm]

Annoyingly cloudy, only a few breaks. Pretty warm though. Already 21c.

[Freeze]

15 minutes ago, baddie said:

A Feb 2019 to start November would be nice, followed by a Nov 2010 end

Absolutely, feb 2019 started with a half decent snowfall on the 1st and got warmer as the month went on, its the last time snow has lay on the ground here nothing since. 

[Bristawl Si]

22 minutes ago, danm said:

Annoyingly cloudy, only a few breaks. Pretty warm though. Already 21c.

Just reached 21c here. Clouds trying to break up, but not really expecting much in the way of sunny spells today.

But 21c on 1st October, i'll take that

[BlueDomeSky]

Not a big fan of having to turn the bathroom light on to take a shower at 11 in the morning. Bring back the sunshine for the sake of our Vitamin D and utility bills!

[Catbrainz]

Even Ireland and to a lesser extent Northern England/Scotland are getting sunshine while Wales and Southern England enjoy drizzle and overcast skies. 

[Somerset girl]

22C here , humid , warm , sunny intervals . 

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Indeed it was. However, that followed a period of weak ENSO amplitude, as 2015 and 2019 did. This time, it has more in common with 2003 in following after a triple Nina. 1990 followed after a Nina if I'm not mistaken, and 2009 came during a period of overall strong -ENSO amplitude. 2009 didn't deliver a disastrously hot summer but it certainly threatened to after a dry, sunny spring and that June heatwave.

Of course, a trend is just a trend, and there will always be some level of unpredictability. This time in particular because of the absurdly high SSTs which will throw a spanner in the works.

I agree that May is long overdue a big heatwave. We have periodically had what would in summer be a mild heatwave in this century, but we've 'only' reached 30.9C so far, which isn't too far out from a statistical norm to experience once in 23 years, although we did also see 30.7C in 2005, so this may (badum tss) be somewhat above expectations for 23 years, but not something I can see being of as much magnitude as it could've been. What May has really lacked is a SE-based heatwave - The 2012 30.9C was reached in Scotland and the 2017 heatwave failed to move far enough south to challenge 32.8C. Had the 2012 heatwave's epicentre been in the South, it wouldn't have been unreasonable to expect 34-35C, maybe even a challenge to the June record. April has a similar problem with this - I have no doubt that the 2018 heatwave could've reached 31-32 had it been more focused on the SE. However it tried to account for the west and go for the huge record break, so in the end Eastern areas didn't get as hot as they needed to and now you have the ridiculous situation of a bunch of western stations with higher April records than May records - This should tell you what kind of heatwave is needed to get past the old records in the east. 

Next year's SSTs and tropospheric temps are set to be through the roof,  which will be advantageous to extremely hot weather early in the year if synoptics cooperate. If SSTs remain as high as they are and we get a SE-focused (or huge record smashing) heatwave, I could definitely see 34-35C in May next year, maybe even 36C and a surpassing of the June record if SSTs and trop temps are high enough, which is not entirely unreasonable. It would certainly be a sign of the times if we go above the June 1976 record in May. The highest temp possible in May right now I would say is >37C, <38C. But you would need Coningsby's springtime cousin for that.

Regarding May, i think your overestimating what is possible. The old record at 32C does certainly suggest that 33C is possible however you have to remember that during most April and May's, the European continent is fairly cool still and as such it is not as simple as replicating a summer pattern because that same pattern is not likely to produce the scale of uppers required. It's why most of our heatwaves with SE winds are not overly humid until July normally.

We could potentially plume with more of a SW element of course but then you move over cooler seas and generate more cloud.  

[alexisj9]

36 minutes ago, BlueDomeSky said:

Not a big fan of having to turn the bathroom light on to take a shower at 11 in the morning. Bring back the sunshine for the sake of our Vitamin D and utility bills!

It's October, the sun shine isn't strong enough for vit d at this time of year. It's still warm though.