Autumn 2023

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, simshady said:

Yes please! Better than the summer thread!

Only IF It DOES actually snow!! I would be a happy camper. I would cry I would be so happy!

[cheeky_monkey]

24 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Only IF It DOES actually snow!! I would be a happy camper. I would cry I would be so happy!

why? i have actually reached the point where i prefer rain to snow 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

17 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

why? i have actually reached the point where i prefer rain to snow 

Move back to the UK ...

[summer blizzard]

Always enjoy the Autumn thread, a reminder that summer is soon to end. 

Looking at my primary anaolgues for this event (1972, 1986, 2009, 2014, 2018) we see.. 

 

September

CET range of 15.1 to 11.3

Precipitation range of 67 to 17

 

October

CET range of 10.5 to 12.3

Precipitation range of 34 to 119

 

November

CET range of 6.3 to 8.6

Precipitation range of 105 to 193

 

So the mean here suggests cooler and drier more likely earlier in the Autumn, warmer and wetter later (wet November signal). 

 

A quick look at the plots backs that. September sees a mean ridge west of the UK but close by, a weak +AO. October sees a +AO but biased to the west so that the UK enjoys high pressure over or south. November sees a somewhat zonal pattern but with a high over Scandinavia stopping much progress east. Somewhat like last November or 2009, weak -AO. 

 

[Dangerous55019]

6 hours ago, lassie23 said:

I'll be starting a. ' Will it snow on Christmas day 2023', thread, in 10 minutes

Will it snow in........

*grabs coast and leaves via side door* Lol 

[Dangerous55019]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Always enjoy the Autumn thread, a reminder that summer is soon to end. 

Looking at my primary anaolgues for this event (1972, 1986, 2009, 2014, 2018) we see.. 

 

September

CET range of 15.1 to 11.3

Precipitation range of 67 to 17

 

October

CET range of 10.5 to 12.3

Precipitation range of 34 to 119

 

November

CET range of 6.3 to 8.6

Precipitation range of 105 to 193

 

So the mean here suggests cooler and drier more likely earlier in the Autumn, warmer and wetter later (wet November signal). 

 

A quick look at the plots backs that. September sees a mean ridge west of the UK but close by, a weak +AO. October sees a +AO but biased to the west so that the UK enjoys high pressure over or south. November sees a somewhat zonal pattern but with a high over Scandinavia stopping much progress east. Somewhat like last November or 2009, weak -AO. 

 

Evening @summer blizzard

Looking at your analogues and if my memory serves me correctly, wasn't September 2014 exceptionally dry? I think October was quite dry as well? I haven't got my weather records to hand sorry.

[Frigid]

Give me an Autumn 2016/2019 and I'll be happy. Both great autumns in the last decade, especially 2019.. November actually felt like Autumn, unlike the last few years. 

[Don]

7 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Only IF It DOES actually snow!! I would be a happy camper. I would cry I would be so happy!

It will if you spend the winter period in the Scottish Highlands lol!

7 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

why? i have actually reached the point where i prefer rain to snow 

As Beka says, you definitely need to move back to the UK!!  You can swap with me lol!!

Edited July 13, 2023 by Don

[MP-R]

10 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Why are we talking autumn in july

Seems pretty apt given recent and upcoming conditions.

2 hours ago, Frigid said:

Give me an Autumn 2016/2019 and I'll be happy. Both great autumns in the last decade, especially 2019.. November actually felt like Autumn, unlike the last few years. 

2016 I would agree, 2019 was disgusting.

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Seems pretty apt given recent and upcoming conditions.

2016 I would agree, 2019 was disgusting.

Doesn't feel like autumn in London, more tropical than anything else, the humidity has been unreal lately.

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Doesn't feel like autumn in London, more tropical than anything else, the humidity has been unreal lately.

Probably the only thing making it feel like naff summer weather rather than autumn. Slightly softens the air.

[Frigid]

34 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Seems pretty apt given recent and upcoming conditions.

2016 I would agree, 2019 was disgusting.

Ok forget what I said, just remembered how dismal the October was.. 2016 was a great autumn, had more going for it. Indian summer September, pleasant all round. October was nice and sunny and November was a cold, crisp month with multiple frosts. Top tier Autumn imo. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Autumn's almost here if you know where to look !! Our first crop of cherries have been picked and sealed in kellner jars with vodka. The elderflower has turned to elderberry, blackberries are still green, but visible on the bramble bushes. I've got a crop of Lords 'n' Ladies in the darker corners of the upper orchard that are just starting to turn red - a great harbinger of late summer.

Elsewhere: Hazelnuts are fattening up, hawthorn & blackthorn bushes are in berry (hello sloe-gin !!) but still green, Pink Lady apple trees are struggling under the weight of this year's crop already. Conkers seem to have doubled in size in a week too.

Now waiting for:

The Winter barley harvest, OSR harvest, then the wheat to follow. After that's safely in, it's all eyes pealed on my early morning cycle rides for the first autumnal mists in mid/late August. 

 

[Dangerous55019]

6 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Autumn's almost here if you know where to look !! Our first crop of cherries have been picked and sealed in kellner jars with vodka. The elderflower has turned to elderberry, blackberries are still green, but visible on the bramble bushes. I've got a crop of Lords 'n' Ladies in the darker corners of the upper orchard that are just starting to turn red - a great harbinger of late summer.

Elsewhere: Hazelnuts are fattening up, hawthorn & blackthorn bushes are in berry (hello sloe-gin !!) but still green, Pink Lady apple trees are struggling under the weight of this year's crop already. Conkers seem to have doubled in size in a week too.

Now waiting for:

The Winter barley harvest, OSR harvest, then the wheat to follow. After that's safely in, it's all eyes pealed on my early morning cycle rides for the first autumnal mists in mid/late August. 

 

Another autumn regular returns

Good afternoon @Turnedoutniceagain.

Yes I’ve noticed the Lords ‘n’ Ladies turning red… Seems slightly earlier than normal to me. 
 

Not that I’m complaining mind. Lol 

[cheeky_monkey]

15 hours ago, Don said:

 

As Beka says, you definitely need to move back to the UK!!  You can swap with me lol!!

when you live where i live your appetite for cold and snow goes from  to  pretty quickly 

[Don]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

when you live where i live your appetite for cold and snow goes from  to  pretty quickly 

I would be happy to put it to the test!  Would suit me to dislike cold and snow in view of climate change.

[Metwatch]

if i'm being honest not exactly ready for autumn. Probably my least favorite season for a few reasons.

With the days drawing / night getting longer, as someone who loves the sunshine, longer days usually make me happier and as that becomes shorter through autumn isn't particularly nice.

Another reason being is that it's the season that has the lowest chance of both thunderstorms, (however 2022 did deliver some good storms early on) as well as snow here. That's what makes me like winter more than autumn, the chance of snow is the highest out of any season as expected.

Hopefully the warm Septembers we have mostly had recently does happen again this year, then maybe something of an Indian summer into October, similar to 1995 or 1921; warm but also dry. We are overdue some mid autumn warmth. Then November the ideal weather would be the frosts and snow but it isn't common for low lying areas to see decent falls of snow late autumn.

One of the things I do like about autumn and this is only when the weather allows it in this country, but landscape photography; the mist, frost with the golden leaves can make for some stunning photos!

[stainesbloke]

23 hours ago, Don said:

I would be happy to put it to the test!  Would suit me to dislike cold and snow in view of climate change.

Just come and spend a winter in the Czech Republic. Multiple snow falls and ice days, and only 1.5 hours by air  

[Summer8906]

Hoping for an unusually sunny and dry autumn, warm in September and October with frequent summer-like temps but turning colder later with a cold and frosty November.

While recent autumns have been mild, we've now had a long run of wet unsettled Octobers. 2019 and 2020 were worst but 2021 and 2022 were also on the wet side.

Agree that October 2016 was nice, 2017 and particularly 2018 weren't bad either.

Realistically my gut feeling is for a warm and dry first half of autumn, mild and wet second half (with the change perhaps around October 21) but we'll see.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

22 hours ago, Metwatch said:

if i'm being honest not exactly ready for autumn. Probably my least favorite season for a few reasons.

With the days drawing / night getting longer, as someone who loves the sunshine, longer days usually make me happier and as that becomes shorter through autumn isn't particularly nice.

Another reason being is that it's the season that has the lowest chance of both thunderstorms, (however 2022 did deliver some good storms early on) as well as snow here. That's what makes me like winter more than autumn, the chance of snow is the highest out of any season as expected.

I know what you mean about how autumn has the lowest chance of either summer-like or winter-like conditions (while spring can feature both) but I actually prefer autumn to winter because winters (well Dec and Jan at least) in lowland southern England are such utter rubbish most of the time: mild, dull and damp - though Feb is often better because it can be mild and sunny. Snow is very uncommon and even frosts are rare, though I appreciate we were spoiled this year in the 2nd half of January.

By contrast, there is a good chance of warm sunny weather in September and a reasonable chance in the first half of October, and, in the absence of frost and snow, nature of course looks better in autumn compared to winter.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Summer8906

[markyo]

13 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Just come and spend a winter in the Czech Republic. Multiple snow falls and ice days, and only 1.5 hours by air  

Shame i can't fly!

[Summer8906]

On 14/07/2023 at 00:23, Frigid said:

Ok forget what I said, just remembered how dismal the October was.. 2016 was a great autumn, had more going for it. Indian summer September, pleasant all round. October was nice and sunny and November was a cold, crisp month with multiple frosts. Top tier Autumn imo. 

Agree about Oct and Nov 2016 but I remember September despite being warm was dull and damp much of the time. I missed the 34C heat spike, being out of the country, but I've always thought of September 2016 as being a vastly overrated (and rather curious) month.

[Summer8906]

On 13/07/2023 at 14:24, lassie23 said:

my guess is 10c sunny

10C yes, sunny no.

[Summer8906]

On 12/07/2023 at 20:32, cheeky_monkey said:

autumn start here in 4 weeks more often that not..can do one as far as I'm concerned because winter is never far behind

Surprised as I'd have guessed Edmonton would have warm or hot Augusts due to its extremely continental location. But perhaps the northerliness means the heat is concentrated earlier in the summer?

[damianslaw]

Today and yesterday would fool into thinking Autumn 2023 is already here, conditions more akin to late Sept.