Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[Nick2373]

1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Cool and unsettled as we move into August, according to gfs, ecm warms it up a bit before turning cooler and unsettled,  but Ecm has been pants of late. ...!

Some up most of this month in favoured areas, Warm cooler back to warm then cooler are we going to see this patterrn the whole of August is the question  

[SunnyG]

9 hours ago, Earthshine said:

GFS OP brings the furnace in for August.

Here's to hoping...

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Troughing set to remain dominant in a mean Westerly flow into August


which can be seen on the GFS average for ten days time,


and theres not much change in 2 weeks time although imho these charts are closer to average


Yet again this chart suggests any return to high pressure dominance has now been put back until the 15th at the earliest


To me, the first half of August is looking average which isnt bad , but its not settled and there no real warmth/heat away from the Southeast.

That's fine by me, but the hoter looking charts starting to show are coming from somewhere.

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Cool and unsettled as we move into August, according to gfs, ecm warms it up a bit before turning cooler and unsettled,  but Ecm has been pants of late. ...!

Looks more like a ridge between lows, and yes that will feel warmer than what we've had. If there's a southerly before the new low takes over, could get a bit hot quite quickly. Guess we'll see closer to the time.

[ANYWEATHER]

16 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Some up most of this month in favoured areas, Warm cooler back to warm then cooler are we going to see this patterrn the whole of August is the question  

Yes an unsettled August beckons,  perhaps turning more settled as we greet September!

[wimblettben]

22 hours ago, Tamara said:

Its a good question.  

Velocity potential (VP) convection anomaly predictions have persisted with the idea of convergence shifting across the Central Pacific to return a more classic El Nino synoptic response. Much of discussion analysis has been focussed on this - quite reasonably so.

Over recent weeks these predictions have backtracked a few times, putting back the shift in the low frequency signal.  Its worth looking at a water profile across the tropics in this respect. This first image below is almost a week old, but very little has changed. The most intensely anomalous heat is focussed across Indonesia and relatively limited spread also across the Western Pacific. Strong trade winds persists at, and east of the dateline (shaded blue on Hovmollers plot in the third image). Convergence therefore mimics a more La Nina feedback pattern. Look where the main VP200 anomalies (shaded green) lie on the respective plot on the second image. The core is a long way further west of a typical El Nino convergence feedback & with suppression (shaded orange) at and east of the dateline.

With so much heat in these areas well west of the dateline, it does call into question the vivacity of this El Nino, when repeated predictions of eastward progression of tropical convergence and associated westerly wind bursts is being delayed and watered down each time.

The implication of that is the synoptic pattern response is bogged down with Nina feedbacks overshadowing the ocean base state El Nino transition.

This type of oceanic > atmosphere feedback increases the likelihood of return to La Nina much sooner than has been widely anticipated and goes some way to further answering the longevity of the Nino disconnect as discussed already in much detail. In turn explaining the forcing from upstream which has been delaying synoptic upturn for N Europe at the same time as trapping heat across S Europe (Thankfully Portugal has had enough Atlantic influence and effective air con to avoid the worst of the July heat to date).

The numerical models in response to these delays is to water down the expected split flow solutions across the Atlantic & Europe in extended modelling and retain the more retracted pattern which feeds downstream troughs across N Europe at the same time as the Azores/Atlantic ridge is withdrawn. This, rather than a ridge extending fully NE and then the split flow creating cut off lows behind it - which in turn create the ability for warm air (heat) advection northwards.

Clearly, with these spatial wind-flow and VP200 anomalies in mind, it is worth exercising caution with forecasts and keep watching the discussed developments upstream. 

 

It's interesting to think about why these two words were given for these different patterns as el Nino is the boy and La Nina is the girl in Spanish.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Troughing set to remain dominant in a mean Westerly flow into August


which can be seen on the GFS average for ten days time,


and theres not much change in 2 weeks time although imho these charts are closer to average


Yet again this chart suggests any return to high pressure dominance has now been put back until the 15th at the earliest


To me, the first half of August is looking average which isnt bad , but its not settled and there no real warmth/heat away from the Southeast.

To be fair it's better than what we do have at the moment.  Funny how our atmosphere is niña and yet the niño is still developing, obviously the easterly trades aren't having much of an impact to the Pacific.   Have to say you were right on the money over July this year, you picked up on the dicey conditions before anyone else did.   

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, wimblettben said:

It's interesting to think about why these two words were given for these different patterns as el Nino is the boy and La Nina is the girl in Spanish.

You'll probably find they patterns were named many years ago by the Spaniards, they do have communities in areas by by the Pacific, who bare the brunt of how these ocean patterns effect weather. Although it is global of course, where the Pacific heat is, reflects where oceanic storms form.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

17 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

It's interesting to think about why these two words were given for these different patterns as el Nino is the boy and La Nina is the girl in Spanish.

Have to say the atmosphere is playing games as things stand, we don't know where we stand at present.   I did see also suggestions that on the ONI that el niño would be accelerating albeit at a linear increase rather than a spike.   

Back to now and @northwestsnowlatched onto it that ECM 00Z op doesn't look too bad at all really at 10 days ahead.   

Edited July 23, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[sundog]

16 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

It's interesting to think about why these two words were given for these different patterns as el Nino is the boy and La Nina is the girl in Spanish.

El Nino  ' The Child' is a reference to Jesus as the phenomenon is strongest in December / Christmas time.

[Mark wheeler]

Certainly some positive vibes in the modelling albeit different timing at this juncture. A couple of snap shots from ECM and GFS . 

[Nick2373]

00z up to the 07th looking at the pattern It looks to be the case of a up and down in terms of weather systems or wind change look at the scatter for around the 01st there is a increase in temps etc then back down around the 04th.  Pretty much like what's showing for the 27th of this month this will be pretty much for now I'm thinking going from other posts and long range etc don't think we'll see anything mean full until mid August. 

[seabreeze86]

50 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

That's fine by me, but the hoter looking charts starting to show are coming from somewhere.

The same place the 23 channel low snow makers come from in winter

[mushymanrob]

54 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

That's fine by me, but the hoter looking charts starting to show are coming from somewhere.

until the anomalies start showing a pattern thatll allow those hotter looking charts - and imho they currently dont - then they are "up the garden path" fodder...

[Addicks Fan 1981]

44 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

until the anomalies start showing a pattern thatll allow those hotter looking charts - and imho they currently dont - then they are "up the garden path" fodder...

Wondering if the AAM is rising albeit at a slower rate? Will be intriguing with what @MattHsays on it.  Its definitely fair to say that this month for weather has been pretty volatile to say the least.    

Back to the here and now and the GFS 6Z op wants to rise heights at 354 hours ahead, not sure it'll be backed though, but nothing can be ruled out completely.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

We will look with avid interest if it is backed or not.  

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

What disappoints me about this GEFS mean chart by the 7th or 8th August is yes we have a not too bad pattern of weather overall, but a Greenland high is still appearing.    

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=31&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

It may not too bad when the chart comes down to high resolution, but as mushy stated earlier its looking pretty average for August and very nondescript.   

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

The MJO has changed dramatically within the past two days according to the mike ventrice site, now more niño like than niña like, all to play for weatherwise.      

Hovmollers - Michael J. Ventrice, Ph.D.

MIKEVENTRICE.WEEBLY.COM

---

o   Time–longitude plots of rainfall and winds, averaged over the indicated 10° latitude bands. o   Wind plots use 1° GFS analyses for the last 90 days o   Updated daily at 1200 UTC ...

 

[Bats32]

GFS 12z showing quite a summer storm for next weekend.

[Downburst]

Yes, will next weekend be the 4th in a row very unsettled? 12 z GFS certainly showing that, although might not be more than showery rather than washout. July 2023 certainly not one to cherish for the weather for me.

[JayAlmeida]

1 hour ago, Downburst said:

Yes, will next weekend be the 4th in a row very unsettled? 12 z GFS certainly showing that, although might not be more than showery rather than washout. July 2023 certainly not one to cherish for the weather for me.

Cant be any worse than today up here in the NW. It's like a monsoon. At least France, Belgium and Netherlands are joining in now! You love to see it.

Edited July 23, 2023 by JayAlmeida

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, Bats32 said:

GFS 12z showing quite a summer storm for next weekend.

Question is where exactly will it be placed?

[Mark wheeler]

Bingo, now just to count it down .

[Mark wheeler]

No, Just no ECM

 

Here comes the mighty Navgem to save the day

Edited July 23, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[I remember Atlantic 252]

29 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Question is where exactly will it be placed?

hopefully won't exist

[Don]

49 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Bingo, now just to count it down .

It's getting like a dog with a bone, the GFS FI!  It can be a good trend spotter remember.

Edited July 23, 2023 by Don