August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The mean for 10 July to 9 Aug 2023 was 15.8, compared to the mean for 17 July to 16 Aug 2022, 19.5 C. 

This statistic is noteworthy. The period is core high summer, and this year the period was below par. 

[cheese]

28 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

This statistic is noteworthy. The period is core high summer, and this year the period was below par. 

Indeed, and it’s partly why the summer has been perceived so poorly despite being statistically pretty average overall. High summer (late July/early August) was not good at all. Certainly a huge contest to how warm last year was too. 
 

Last August was an amazing month, one of the best summer months I’ve ever experienced. On par with August 1995. 

Edited September 2, 2023 by cheese

[Addicks Fan 1981]

51 minutes ago, cheese said:

Indeed, and it’s partly why the summer has been perceived so poorly despite being statistically pretty average overall. High summer (late July/early August) was not good at all. Certainly a huge contest to how warm last year was too. 
 

Last August was an amazing month, one of the best summer months I’ve ever experienced. On par with August 1995. 

Apparently we had nationwide 11% more rainfall and 6% more sunshine this summer thanks to our very wet July and fabulously sunny June.   Its incredible and crazy with the implications el niño has brought to our summer this year.   

People I thought were conned into believing el niño would bring more heat to our shores in this country this summer, no in actual fact it caused disruption.    

Edited September 3, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Roger J Smith]

 

Updated EWP scoring report

The EWP table value posted on 5th (77.0 mm) ended up a long way from the tracker final value of 85.0 mm, and the missing rainfall seems to have been posted under July now as that monthly value went up considerably from last month's table value of 121.3, to 133.4 mm. Under the rules the July change this month will not be scored, although it should be mentioned that in terms of points scoring, no changes would have occurred anyway -- it would have had an impact on average errors.  

So more than my advertised "further tweaking of this table" was required on Tuesday 5th, and those changes are now complete below. It is still the case that many forecasters are in a narrow range of scores in a chase pack behind the top three, namely Snowray, Leo97t and Reef. 

For August scores, those with late penalties have the  _v_ symbol added. This can create a jog in ranks of scoring for the month.  The rounded number result (77.0) creates a number of ties under the rules, which then get separated out slightly as one of the tied values is usually above the 1991-2020 normal value which in this case creates a deduction of up to 0.06 points. Ties for (75, 79) and (72, 82) mm were both on the right side of normal and scored the same. This means we have a shared win for SteveB (79.0) and AddicksFan1981 (75.0) and the closest "forecast" was actually 1981-2010 normal (75.6 mm). 

Congrats to snowray and Reef for first and third/fifth place ranks in both annual and summer scoring. Leo97t is now second in the annual contest, and your host was second in the summer segment with Metwatch third and Polar Gael fourth. Errors were generally much larger in July than the other two months so the average error portion of summer scoring does not always correlate with the points totals. 

If you are ranked between 4th to about 27th in the annual scoring you'll note that there is not much of a spread in that "chase pack" and really your chances of a good contest result are almost the same. The top three have separated a bit from the field but are not yet in a totally dominant position although snowray has a comfortable lead. 

Note: Rank (prev) refers to July annual rank, and second entry of average error rank is also July value to show changes month to month. 

 

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ________ n __ TOTAL PTS ___ AVG ERROR (rank)__ Aug fcst, score (rank)

_01 __ 01 ___ snowray ______________9 ___ 66.75 ________ 22.98 ( 2 ) _ ( 3 ) ____ 72.0 __ 8.88 (8) 

_02 __ 02 ___ Leo97t _______________ 9 ___ 62.09 ________ 23.59 ( 3 ) _ ( 2 ) ____ 65.0 __ 5.84 (27) 

_03 __ 03 ___ Reef __________________9 ___ 60.01 ________ 25.39 ( 7 ) _ ( 5 ) ____ 92.2 __ 5.14 (31)

_04 __ 07 ___ bobd29 _______________9 ___ 57.55 ________ 25.78 ( 9 ) _ (11) ____ 81.6 __ 9.04 (7)

_05 __ 06 ___ Mulzy _________________9 ___ 56.86 ________ 27.19 (10) _ (15) ____ 70.0 __ 8.14 (14)

_06 __ 11 ___ jonboy _______________ 9 ___ 56.76 ________ 27.50 (11) _ (16) ____ 81.0 __ 9.20 (6)

_07 __ 04 ___ February1978 ________ 9 ___ 55.00 ________ 27.92 (14) _ (14) ____ 91.0 __ 5.46 (29)

_08 __ 10 ___prolongedSnowLover _9 ___ 54.73 ________ 25.11 ( 6 ) _ ( 8 ) ____ 67.0 ___6.96 (20)

_09__t18 ___ Polar Gael ____________ 9 ___ 54.72 ________ 29.67 (19) _ (26) ____ 80.2 __ 9.36 (5)

_10 __ 12 ___ Weather Observer ___ 9 ___ 54.48 ________ 28.48 (15) _ (19) ____ 85.0 __ 7.36 (18)

_11 __ 14 ___ Jeff C _________________ 9 ___ 54.16 ________ 29.52 (18) _ (22) ____ 85.0 __ 7.56 (16)

_12 __ 05 ___ Summer Shower______8 ___ 53.73 ________ 24.36 (t4) _ ( 4 ) ____ 61.0 __ 5.00 (32)

_13 __ 09 ___ virtualsphere _________9 ___ 52.68 ________ 27.83 (t12)_(12) ____ 93.0 __ 4.94 (33)

_14 __ 13 ___ Stationary Front ______9 ___ 52.43 ________ 27.83 (t12)_(13) ____ 62.0 __ 5.36 (30)

_t15__ 15 ___ Midlands Ice Age _____9 ___ 52.39 ________ 31.28 (27) _ (30) ____ 87.2 __ 6.58 (22)

_t15__ 08 ___ DR(S)NO ______________9 ___ 52.39 ________ 29.10 (16) _ (17) ____ 95.0 __ 4.26 (35)

_17 __t18 ___ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 9 ___ 52.22 ________ 29.41 (17) _ (20) ____ 67.0 __ 6.86 (21)

_18 __ 16 ___ dancerwithwings _____9 ___ 52.11 ________ 31.39 (28) _ (31) ____ 66.0 __ 6.48 (23)

_19 __ 22 ___ seaside60 ____________ 9 ___ 51.64 ________ 32.21 (30) _ (33) ____ 84.0 __ 7.82 (15) _v_

_20 __ 21 ___ Wold Topper _________ 9 ___ 49.69 ________ 30.59 (24) _ (25) ____ 65.0 __ 5.74 (28)

_21 __ 20 ___ Emmett Garland _____ 9 ___ 49.17 ________ 30.52 (22) _ (23) ____ 93.0 __ 4.84 (34)

_22 __ 26 ___ Roger J Smith _________9 ___ 49.43 ________ 25.63 ( 8 ) _ (10) _____82.7 __ 8.39 (10)

_23 __ 17 ___ J 10 ___________________ 9 ___ 48.91 ________ 29.74 (20) _  (18) ___100.0 __ 3.54 (39)

_24 __ 29 ___ daniel* _______________ 9 ___ 48.26 ________ 33.48 (32) _ (36) ____ 80.0 __ 9.58 (4)

_25 __ 30 ___ summer18 ___________ 9 ___ 46.82 ________ 30.19 (21) _ (27) ____ 82.0 __ 8.88 (8)

_26 __ 28 ___ Don __________________ 9 ___ 46.40 ________ 31.19 (26) _ (29) ____ 88.0 __ 6.22 (26)

_27 __ 35 ___ The PIT _______________ 9 ___ 43.51 ________ 35.70 (36) _ (42) ____ 80.0 __ 9.68 (3)

_28 __ 23 ___ I Remember Atl252 ___8 ___ 42.63 ________ 30.78 (25) _ ( 9 ) ____130.0 __ 0.18 (52)

_29 _ t41 ___ Weather26 ____________8 ___ 42.61 ________ 24.36 (t4) _ ( 6 ) _____ 88.0 __ 6.42 (24)

_30 __ 24 ___ Mapantz ______________8 ___ 42.18 ________ 34.34 (34) _ (32) ____ no fcst

_31 __ 27 ___ noname_weather_____9 ___ 41.43 ________ 32.86 (31) _ (24) ____112.0 __ 0.98 (48) _v_

_32 __ 38 ___ Mr Maunder __________9 ___ 41.33 ________ 34.74 (35) _ (40) ____ 84.0 __ 8.22 (13)

_33 __ 25 ___ summer8906 _________6 ___ 40.68 ________ 21.33 ( 1 ) _  ( 1 ) ____no fcst

_34 __ 34 ___ Godber 1 _____________ 9 ___ 37.60 ________ 36.03 (38) _ (38) ____100.0 __ 3.44 (40)

_35 __ 33 ___ davehsug _____________ 9 ___ 36.76 ________ 36.63 (41) _ (39) ____105.0 __ 2.34 (44)

_36 __ 32 ___ shillitocettwo _________ 9 ___ 36.23 ________ 42.61 (48) _ (46) ____117.0 __ 0.90 (49)

_37 __ 41 ___ rwtwm ________________9 ___ 36.10 ________ 37.97 (44) _ (43) ____ 55.0 __ 3.66 (37)

_38 __ 36 ___ Methuselah ___________9 ___ 36.03 ________ 37.74 (43) _ (41) ____ 49.0 __ 2.40 (43)

_39__t39 ___ syed2878 _____________ 9 ___ 34.57 ________ 39.83 (45) _ (45) ____ 45.0 __ 1.92 (45)

_40 __ 37 ___ DiagonalRedLine _____ 6 ___ 33.52 ________ 33.52 (33) _ (28) ____ no fcst

_41 __ 50 ___ SteveB ________________ 9 ___ 32.74 ________ 40.54 (46) _ (50) ____ 79.0 __10.00 (t1)

_42 __t39 ___ Norrance _____________ 8 ___ 32.65 ________ 37.56 (42) _ (37) ____ no fcst

_43 __ 46 ___ Neil N _________________8 ___ 32.35 ________ 36.46 (40) _ (44) ____ 88.0 __ 6.32 (25)

_44 __ 42 ___ freeze _________________5 ___ 31.95 ________ 31.92 (29) _ (21) ____ no fcst

_45 __ 49 ___ Frigid __________________9 ___ 31.25 ________ 44.66 (50) _ (51) ____ 85.0 __ 7.46 (17)

_46 __ 51 ___ Metwatch ______________8 ___ 30.63 ________ 46.06 (53) _ (53) ____ 72.0 __ 8.28 (10) _v_ 

_47 __ 43 ___ stewfox _______________ 6 ___ 29.55 ________ 30.53 (23) _ ( 7 ) ___ 123.0 __ 0.42 (51)

_48 __ 48 ___ summer blizzard ______ 9 ___ 27.17 ________ 42.92 (49) _ (48) ___102.0 __ 2.82 (41)

_49 __ 44 ___ SLEETY ________________ 7 ___ 27.10 ________ 35.57 (37) _ (34) ____ no fcst

_50 __ 45 ___ Cymro _________________4 ___ 26.11 ________ 36.88 (---) _  (---) ____ no fcst

_51 __ 47 ___ Moorlander ___________ 9 ___ 25.17 ________ 45.08 (52) _ (49) ____120.0 __ 0.66 (50)

_52 __ 52 ___ sunny_vale ____________ 6 ___ 21.67 ________ 36.37 (39) _ (35) ____ 44.0 __ 1.68 (46) 

_53 __ 55 ___ catbrainz _______________5 ___ 21.34 ________ 43.36 (49) _ (---) ____ 54.0 __ 3.60 (38)

_54 __ 57 ___ B87 _____________________4 ___ 19.89 ________ 27.58 (---) _ (---) ____ 50.0 __ 2.64 (42)

_55 __ 53 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather _____ 5 ___ 19.01 ________ 44.90 (51) _ (47) ____ no fcst

_56 __ 56 ___ chilly milly _____________ 9 ___ 18.86 ________ 54.33 (55) _ (54) ___ 112.0 __ 1.38 (47)

_57 __ 59 ___ Earthshine ______________7 ___ 19.11 ________ 47.11 (53) _ (52) ____ 55.0 __ 3.98 (37)

_58 __ 54 ___ Blast From the Past ____ 4 ___ 18.63 _________44.13 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_59 __ 58 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers __ 4 ___ 17.04 ________ 32.58 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_60 __ 68 ___ Weather Enthusiast91 __ 2 ___ 15.86 _______ 21.25 ( ---) _ (---) ____ 70.0 ___ 8.24 (12)

_61 __ 60 ___ Let It Snow! _____________3 ___ 14.06 ________ 51.47 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_t63__ --- ___ AddicksFan1981 ________ 1 ____10.00 _________ 2.00 (---) _ (---) ____ 75.0 ___10.00 (t1)

_72 __ --- ___ Somerset Girl ___________ 1 ____ 6.96 _________ 8.00 (---) _ (---) ____ 85.0 __ 6.96 (19) _v_

_94 __ --- ___ Met. _____________________ 1 ____ 0.00 ________ 69.00 (---) _ (---) ___146.0 __ 0.00 (53)

(only August entrants are shown after 61th place in annual contest) 

=========================

 (3.7) _(3.9) __ Consensus _____________9 ___ 58.14 _______ 28.32 (14.7) (19.1) __ 82.7 __ 8.39 (t10)

(6.5) (14.8) __ 1981-2010 average _____9 ___ 55.93 _______ 25.79 ( 9.1) _(10.0) __ 75.6 __10.00 (0.8)

(17.5)(24,1) _ 1991-2020 average _____ 9 ___ 51.89 _______ 27.11 ( 9.9) _(14.2) __ 82.3 __ 8.45 (9.6)

Scores and average errors for these have improved slightly from July (second values for ranks are July ranks)

Ranks for consensus and normals are in decimal format, to place them relative to forecaster ranks. For example, Consensus at 3.7 is between third and fourth for points, and closer to 4th. If they get into a range higher than first then their value can drop below 1.0 as for example 1981-2010 average. 

______________________________

 

SUMMER SEASONAL SCORING _  all entrants

_ _ _ (Consensus, normals shown in position to right of nearest scores for forecasters)

 

Rank _ FORECASTER ________________ Points ___ Avg err (mm) ___ Consensus and Normals

01 __ snowray _______________________26.54 ____ 15.93

02 __ Roger J Smith __________________21.55 _____ 7.77 _________ Consensus 21.63 (avg err 20.63)

03 __ Metwatch ______________________21.52 ____ 23.27

04 __ Polar Gael _____________________ 21.31 ____ 21.00

05 __ Reef ___________________________ 21.07 ____ 21.00

06 __ Mr Maunder ___________________20.37 ____ 20.27

07 __ Wold Topper __________________ 19.78 ____ 22.27

08 __ The PIT ________________________19.68 ____ 24.27

09 __ Mulzy __________________________ 19.65 ____ 24.93

10 __ Leo97t _________________________19.64 ____ 23.27

11 __ virtualsphere __________________ 19.52 ____ 14.93

12t__ Don ____________________________19.49 ____ 21.93

12t__ Summer Shower ______________ 19.49 ____ 15.60

14 __ summer 18 ____________________ 19.20 ____ 19.27

15 __ Jonboy _________________________19.07 ____ 22.93

16 __ daniel* _________________________18.82 ____ 26.93

17 __ dancerwithwings ______________ 18.76 ____ 25.27

18 __ Midlands Ice Age ______________ 18.66 ____ 25.60

19 __ J 10 ____________________________ 18.61 ____ 24.27

20 __ I Remember Atlantic252 _______17.99 ____ 26.27

21 __ seaside60 ______________________17.80 ____ 25.60

22 __ ProlongedSnowLover __________17.78 ____ 22.73

23 __ JeffC ___________________________ 17.28 ____ 24.93 

24__ NeilN ___________________________ 17.27 ____ 24.93

25 __ Stationary Front ________________17.13 ____ 24.27

26 __ bobd29 _________________________17.01 ____ 24.97_________ 1993-2022 17.01 (avg err 25.57)

27 __ Weather Observer _____________ 16.98 ____ 24.93

28 __ noname_weather ______________ 16.87 ____ 20.93

29 __ Weather26 _____________________ 16.84 ____ 16.27

30 __ February1978 ___________________16.41 ____ 26.27 

31 __ shillitocettwo ___________________16.09 ____ 28.60 __________1991-2020 15.61 (avg err 26.20)

32 __ Feb1991Blizzard ________________15.24 ____ 28.93

33 __ Frigid ___________________________14.11 ____ 27.60 

34 __ DR(S)NO _______________________ 14.06 ____ 29.27

35 __ rwtwm __________________________13.35 ____ 29.60

36 __ SteveB __________________________12.92 ____ 32.27

37 __ Godber1 ________________________12.70 ____ 29.47

38 __ B87 _____________________________11.87 ____ 33.93

39 __ syed2878 _______________________11.50 ____ 30.60

40 __ davehsug _______________________11.19 ____ 34.37

41 __ Emmett Garland _______________ 11.04 ____ 32.60

42 __ sunny vale ______________________10.87 ____ 33.60

43 __ AddicksFan1981 ________________ 10.00 ____ 2.00 (Aug only)

44 __ stewfox _________________________ 9.28 _____ 24.25 (June, Aug)

45__ summer8906 ____________________ 9.24 ____ 21.30 (July only)

46 __ Weather Enthusiast91 ___________ 8.24 _____ 7.00 (Aug only)

47 __ kold weather ____________________ 7.75 ____ 41.30 (July only)

48__ catbrainz _________________________ 7.40 ____ 42.15 (July, Aug only)

49 __Somerset Girl ____________________ 6.92 _____ 8.00 (Aug only)

50 __ chilly milly _______________________ 6.72 ____ 42.93

51 __ Methuselah ______________________6.32 ____ 39.27

52__ Mapantz __________________________6.20 ____ 42.90 (June, July)

53t__ Moorlander _____________________ 5.80 ____ 42.27

53t__ Earthshine _______________________ 5.80 ____ 43.93

55 __ SLEETY ___________________________ 4.08 ____ 13.50 (June only)

56 __ Summer Blizzard ________________ 3.37 ____ 45.93

57 __ Kirkcaldy Weather _______________ 2.97 ____ 17.70 (June only)

58 __ Norrance ________________________ 2.13 ____ 46.90 (June, July only)

59 __ mattstoke ________________________ 1.49 ____ 69.30 (July only)

60 __ Met. ______________________________ 0.00 ____ 69.00 (Aug only)

______________________________

 

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Dancerwithwings]

Hi J10….just wondering when you’re August Tables/Values are landing

 

[J10]

1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Hi J10….just wondering when you’re August Tables/Values are landing

Tomorrow probably

[Roger J Smith]

So, the EWP minders have made a very substantial change to the value, which you wil recall was 85.0 mm, now they are putting only 77.0 mm into the tables, and more problematic, they seem to have taken some of it and put it into July which has gone up from 121.3 to 133.4 mm. They often continue to make small changes for up to three months before these table values settle and usually the first month after doesn't have much of a change, so this is a bit uncharted territory.

Obviously I will be altering the August scoring as is the policy, and supposedly sticking with the July scoring but 12 mm is quite a big change to a month-later table adjustment (usually they might be a couple of tenths at this stage, even the first change to August is a lot bigger than most). 

I will just change August for now and mull over what if anything to do about July. It would not change any points scoring as no forecasts were higher, but it would add further to average errors.  

There is also the "rules for a reason" aspect, one reason being, I have lots to do already and re-scoring contests already settled a month ago is a pain. (and I had a small error in July from the first table posting, so I have to factor in, what impact does that have on my outlook?) ... will probably leave it alone because it won't have any impact on points and the average error stat  is already quite impacted by whether or not a forecaster entered July.

It's going to take a while to make the August changes and they will be fairly significant given how many forecasts are between 70 and 100 mm. Will post again when changes are made but the tables already created will be edited rather than moved. 

Would say look in tomorrow because I suspect I will be doing this overnight your time. 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

4 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

So, the EWP minders have made a very substantial change to the value, which you wil recall was 85.0 mm, now they are putting only 77.0 mm into the tables, and more problematic, they seem to have taken some of it and put it into July which has gone up from 121.3 to 133.4 mm. They often continue to make small changes for up to three months before these table values settle and usually the first month after doesn't have much of a change, so this is a bit uncharted territory.

Obviously I will be altering the August scoring as is the policy, and supposedly sticking with the July scoring but 12 mm is quite a big change to a month-later table adjustment (usually they might be a couple of tenths at this stage, even the first change to August is a lot bigger than most). 

I will just change August for now and mull over what if anything to do about July. It would not change any points scoring as no forecasts were higher, but it would add further to average errors.  

There is also the "rules for a reason" aspect, one reason being, I have lots to do already and re-scoring contests already settled a month ago is a pain. (and I had a small error in July from the first table posting, so I have to factor in, what impact does that have on my outlook?) ... will probably leave it alone because it won't have any impact on points and the average error stat  is already quite impacted by whether or not a forecaster entered July.

It's going to take a while to make the August changes and they will be fairly significant given how many forecasts are between 70 and 100 mm. Will post again when changes are made but the tables already created will be edited rather than moved. 

Would say look in tomorrow because I suspect I will be doing this overnight your time. 

I think it would be fine to take figures at a point in time as final, so say anything after the 10th of the following month is not considered. I wouldn't make any changes to July figures now.

[J10]

Excel August 2023 CET.xlsx
PDF Summary August 2023 Summary.pdf
PDF Overall Summary August 2023 Summary Overall.pdf

The PDF Overall Summary is now over 2 pages, so should be easier to read.

Monthly
Two players were spot on this month, Weather Enthusiast91 and Weather Observer.

In total 29 were within 0.5c, so generally a well forecasted month, and this has meant not that change to the ongoing competitions.

Seasonal
The seasonal Top 5 is very similar to last month.

Dancerwithwings remains in 1st
Summer Sun remains in 2nd
I remember Atlantic 252 is 3rd (from 5th)
jonboy is 4th (from 3rd)
noname_weather is 5th (from 4th)

Overall
The overall Top 5 is also very similar to last month.

Summer Sun remains in 1st
DR(S)NO is 2nd (from 3rd)
Leo97t is 3rd (from 2nd)
The PIT is 4th (from 6th)
reef remains in 5th

[Roger J Smith]

Work on EWP files including the earlier combined CET-EWP is now done. 

With the rather substantial change to EWP, the PIT emerges with best combined forecast. SteveB and AddicksFan1981 share top scores for August, and snowray continues to lead the annual contest after also winning the summer segment. Leo 97t and Reef are 2-3 in the annual, and Roger J Smith and Metwatch were 2-3 in summer. 

No changes were required for July scoring anyway, it was only a matter of all errors being larger than before, but same rankings. 

[Dancerwithwings]

On 04/09/2023 at 23:15, J10 said:

Tomorrow probably

Thanks J10, that twice I’ve topped the summer season in recent years

lol as it ain’t even my favourite season , it’s Winter and I’m always miles out

Truth be known regarding my winter guesses, I think my heart rules my head
 

Anyway, I appreciate and applaud yourself and Roger for what you both do and not leaving out SS for one’s daily updates

Edited September 6, 2023 by Dancerwithwings

[Roger J Smith]

Well, table below was ready to post a few days ago, but I was diverted to getting ready for a trip and so it is only now appearing ...

 

Analysis of scoring for recent normals and our consensus

 

_________________________________ Forecasts _______________ Errors ___________ Rank _______ 

"Robot" Forecaster _________ CET ___ EWP ___________ CET __ EWP ____ CET __ EWP 

1981-2010 average DEC ___ 4.5 ____ 97.4 ____________ +1.1 __-4.6 _____ 55 ___ 2.3

1981-2010 average JAN ___ 4.4 _____ 93.0 ____________ -0.8 __ -4.8 _____ 40 ___ 18.5

1981-2010 average FEB ___ 4.4 _____ 66.5 ___________ -2.1 __ +52.5 ____ 40 ___ 37.0

1981-2010 average MAR ___6.6 _____ 71.5 ___________ -0.4 __ -65.3 _____13 ___17.2

1981-2010 average APR ___ 8.5 _____ 64.8 ___________ -0.2 __ -12.1 _____11 ___ 23.2

1981-2010 average MAY __11.7 _____ 63.6 ___________ -0.8 __+20.1 _____50 ___ 24.6

1981-2010 average JUN ___14.4 _____ 66.3 ___________-2.6 __+16.3 _____44 ___ 44.2

1981-2010 average JUL____16.6 _____ 67.3 ___________+0.5 __-62.2 ______ 6 ___ 28.4

1981-2010 average AUG __ 16.5 _____ 75.6 ___________ 0.0 __ +0.6 _______3 ___ 0.8*

*rank 0.8 for AUG EWP was better than all forecasters (error 0.6, their low error 2.0).  For CET I rounded 16.45 (1981-2010 value now in v2.0.1.0) up to 16.5. Even so, 1981-2010 was clearly a very accurate forecast of Aug 2023. 

----------------

1991-2020 average DEC ___ 4.8 ____103.6 ____________ +1.4 __+1.6 _____ 63 ___ 0.4

1991-2020 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 94.2 _____________ -0.5 __ -3.6 _____ 28 ___ 17.8

1991-2020 average FEB ___ 5.0 _____ 72.4 _____________ -1.5 __ 58.4 ____ 39 ___ 40.3

1991-2020 average MAR ___6.7 _____ 65.4 _____________ -0.3 __-71.4 ____11 ___ 30.6

1991-2020 average APR ___ 9.0 _____ 63.2 _____________ +0.3 __-13.7 ____16 ___ 25.1

1991-2020 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 62.7 ______________-0.6 __ 19.2 ____42 ___ 21.1

1991-2020 average JUN ___ 14.6 ____ 70.5 ______________ -2.4 __20.5 ____ 50 ___ 47.2

1991-2020 average JUL ____16.8 ____ 72.0 ______________ +0.7__-57.5_____10 ___ 22.0

1991-2020 average AUG ___16.6 ____ 82.3 ______________+0.2 __ +7.3 _____ 6 ____ 9.6

---------------

1992-2021 average DEC ___ 4.9 ____105.5 _____________ +1.5 __+3.5 _____ 65 ___ 0.9

1993-2022 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 95.4 _____________ -0.5 __ -2.4 _____ 28 ___ 13.5

1993-2022 average FEB ___ 5.1 _____ 74.9 _____________-1.4 __ +60.5 ____ 36 ___ 41.4

1993-2022 average MAR ___ 6.7 _____63.6 _____________-0.3 __ -73.2 ____ 11 ___ 32.7

1993-2022 average APR ____8.9 _____59.8 _____________ +0.2 __-17.1 ____ 11 ___ 32.2

1993-2022 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 66.6 _____________ -0.6 ___ 23.1 ____ 42 ___ 29.8

1993-2022 average JUN ____14.7 ____ 69.5 _____________-2.3 ___ 19.5 ____ 49 ___ 45.8

1993-2022 average JUL ____ 16.9 ____ 70.5 ____________ +0.8 __ -59.0_____ 14 ___ 22.7

1993-2022 average AUG ___ 16.6 ____ 79.9 ____________ +0.2 __ +4.9 ______ 6 ____ 2.9

-----------------

consensus DEC ____________ 3.5 ____ 63.0 ______________ +0.1 __-39.0 _____ 04 __ 39.0

consensus JAN _____________5.1 ____ 99.5 _______________-0.1 __ +1.7 _____ 1.5 __ 5.9

consensus FEB ____________ 5.4 ____ 65.0 _______________-1.1 __ +51.0 ____ 29 ___ 31.0

consensus MAR ___________ 5.9 ____ 67.0 _______________-1.1 __ -69.8 ____ 27 ___ 25.0

consensus APR ____________ 9.0 ____ 65.0 _______________+0.3 __-11.9 ____ 16 ___ 20

consensus MAY ____________12.3 ___ 65.0 _______________-0.2 __ 21.5 _____ 23 ___ 25

consensus JUN _____________15.4 ___ 50.0 _______________-1.6 __ +1.2 _____26 ___ 11

consensus JUL ______________17.6 ___ 68.0 ______________ +1.5 __-61.5 ____ 30 ___ 27

consensus AUG ____________ 16.8 ___ 82.7 ______________ +0.4 __ +7.7 ____ 16 ____ 10

=======================

1981-2010 mean of 9 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.94 __25.79 ___ 29 ___ 9.1

1991-2020 mean of 8 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.88 __27.11 ___ 30 ___ 9.9

1993-2022 mean of 8 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.87 __29.66 ___ 30 ___19.9

consensus mean of 8 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.71 _ 28.31 ___ 20 __ 14.7

(note mean of errors is mean of absolute errors, not actual errors)

(mean of actual errors is "bias" of forecasts and is around -0.6 for 1981-2010 and -0.3 for 1991-2020, and is currently -0.20 for our consensus, meaning on average our consensus forecasts were 0.20 below outcomes but normals were 0.2 below outcomes ... it's a different measure of consensus being a bit better compared to normals).

-----------------------------------------------------------------

ANALYSIS: Our consensus took another bit of a downturn compared to recent normals in August, but overall our CET forecast consensus is somewhat better than the more recent normals. EWP consensus scores are not significantly better or worse compared to recent normals.  

Average consensus error of 0.71 deg is better than most full-time contest entrants except for top nine, ranking 10th. The average errors for the three normals are closer to the 21-30 range in the contest. 

Despite larger errors, EWP ranks overall are better than implied by average monthly ranks, both consensus and all three normals are scoring better than most outside the top 3 in EWP. When comparing average ranks, it should be kept in mind that there are usually 7-10 forecasters going "CET only" so that an average rank of 32 in CET is probably almost equivalent to an average rank of 25 in EWP.