August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

If it is 16.7 then the CET for this summer will be 16.6, so classed as a hot and wet summer at the same time.   

Hot? Really,  warm perhaps, but as said skewed enormously by June. The average mean temp disguising the actualities. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.9 +0.3C above average. Rainfall up to 63.4mm 92.2% of the monthly average.

The final resting places for us looks to be between 16.5C and 16.8C.

This will give us an average summer temperature wise with above average rainfall.

Looking at the Met Office CET The average is 15.6C and at it looks like it will finish around 16.6C for the summer so a degree above. Not sure they count being +1 as average like they do for the daily temperature or not.

[Summer Sun]

16.8c to the 26th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

28 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

16.8c to the 26th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

Now, stay right there!! 

[damianslaw]

25 minutes ago, Don said:

Now, stay right there!! 

Expect it will drop, nothing especially warm on the horizon. June highly likely to end up our warmest month of the year, first time in 53 years. unless September ends up the warmest on record!

July and August may mirror 2009, Aug 09 was 16.7 degrees. 

Edited August 27, 2023 by damianslaw

[Don]

20 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Expect it will drop, nothing especially warm on the horizon. June highly likely to end up our warmest month of the year, first time in 53 years. unless September ends up the warmest on record!

July and August may mirror 2009, Aug 09 was 16.7 degrees. 

Yes, my 16.8C guess will be slightly too high now, but far better than my attempts for June and July!

I'm hoping September will also mirror 2009, but the hottest on record, a BIG no no!!

Edited August 27, 2023 by Don

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Yes, my 16.8C guess will be slightly too high now, but far better than my attempts for June and July!

I'm hoping September will also mirror 2009, but the hottest on record, a BIG no no!!

Happy to see a Sept and October match 2009, lots of fine settled pleasant weather at times, especially mid month periods. No Nov 09 repeat thanks, exceptionally wet with severe flooding here.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

@Roger J Smith has your views on the CET now shifted basically or is it more of the same?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.8C +0.2C above average. Rainfall still at 63.4mm 92.2% of the monthly average.

Edited August 28, 2023 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

16.7c to the 27th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Dancerwithwings]

31 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

16.7c to the 27th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

Now today it’s my turn Don….. “now stay there”

….but I don’t think it will somehow

It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the final outcome is 16.5c 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Now today it’s my turn Don….. “now stay there”

….but I don’t think it will somehow

It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the final outcome is 16.5c 

Lol!! 

However, I suspect you are correct ref to a final outcome of 16.5C.  That said, you will still be closer than me! 

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Lol!! 

However, I suspect you are correct ref to a final outcome of 16.5C.  That said, you will still be closer than me! 

I maybe the Seasonal Summer winner, but tbh I can’t remember who had what and who was over my shoulder…it can wait though

[LetItSnow!]

If August does end on 16.5 then it would be an exactly average month for temperatures according to the 1991-2020 average, and about 0.7C above the 1961-1990 average. 

The equivalent of the same anomalies 30 years ago would have been:

June: 16.4

July: 15.3

August: 15.8

Summer: 15.8

I like to put current day anomalies on the old averages to imagine what the same synoptics may have brought before the warming era. The year to date with those anomalies would be:

4.2 5.3 6.0 7.6 11.8 16.4 15.3 15.8

[Midlands Ice Age]

Now that the CET seems to have settled for 16.5 -16.6C, where do we think that the EWP will finish?

Thursday (last day) looks as if it could produce 5 - 7.5mm,  but I have no idea what the current level is.

For the CET,  DR(S)NO is the only one who called 16.5C, but he is quite a bit higher with his EWP guess. 

Here in the heart of the CET region I am at 71.7mms, but the EWP is national and I think that places in Scotland and SE England had much more rain over the weekend.

Frigid and myself look in the best position, and he was 2.25mms less than my guess of 87.2mms.. 

On the other hand Summer18 is strongly in the running if it turns out dryer with 82mms.

I shall watch the outcome with interest to see if another first in both categories will emerge!!

MIA 

Edited August 29, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.7C +0.1C above average. Rainfall 63.4mm 92.2% of the monthly average.

Our landing zone looks like 16.5C to 16.7C. with rainfall close to average.

Edited August 29, 2023 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

16.7c to the 28th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

A distinctly average August temp wise devoid of any real warmth. Rainfall levels average or above for most. Sunshine probably a litfle below or average. A very underwhelming August on the back of a very poor July. 

[Dancerwithwings]

10 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Now that the CET seems to have settled for 16.5 -16.6C, where do we think that the EWP will finish?

Thursday (last day) looks as if it could produce 5 - 7.5mm,  but I have no idea what the current level is.

For the CET,  DR(S)NO is the only one who called 16.5C, but he is quite a bit higher with his EWP guess. 

Here in the heart of the CET region I am at 71.7mms, but the EWP is national and I think that places in Scotland and SE England had much more rain over the weekend.

Frigid and myself look in the best position, and he was 2.25mms less than my guess of 87.2mms.. 

On the other hand Summer18 is strongly in the running if it turns out dryer with 82mms.

I shall watch the outcome with interest to see if another first in both categories will emerge!!

MIA 

Ive recorded just 38.7mm for this month up to now
my overall for the year is 488 mm

Edited August 29, 2023 by Dancerwithwings

[Midlands Ice Age]

14 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Ive recorded just 38.7mm for this month up to now

What is going on?

I'm certain that we have had much more than that in the last month...

Can the rainfall be that variable?

So who knows what we will end up with on a national scale?.

You sure you haven't  got a brolly over your kit?

I have in fact sorted out possibly a problem with mine...

Squirrels (they leap onto the top of my 2 M metal weather pole) and use it as a landing base.  (not very often).

Jackdaws seem to like to land on it on their way to the bird feeders....  (a bit more frequent!)

As mine is a tip measuring tray it could add something on!!! Though in fairness I haven't observed a problem before. Oh well I'll just have to wait and see what happens in a few days time.

[Dancerwithwings]

5 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

What is going on?

I'm certain that we have had much more than that in the last month...

Can the rainfall be that variable?

So who knows what we will end up with on a national scale?.

You sure you haven't  got a brolly over your kit?

I have in fact sorted out possibly a problem with mine...

Squirrels (they leap onto the top of my 2 M metal weather pole) and use it as a landing base.  (not very often).

Jackdaws seem to like to land on it on their way to the bird feeders....  (a bit more frequent!)

As mine is a tip measuring tray it could add something on!!! Though in fairness I haven't observed a problem before. Oh well I'll just have to wait and see what happens in a few days time.

Maybe a little pre Winter maintenance is need….I’ll have mine down and checked this forthcoming Sunday

edit …I’ve just checked our *monkspath weather station* and it’s almost spot on with mine , not just for this month but for the year

Edited August 29, 2023 by Dancerwithwings

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Maybe a little pre Winter maintenance is need….I’ll have mine down and checked this forthcoming Sunday

I had a spider in mine once...   it sugared it up completely.

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

I had a spider in mine once...   it sugared it up completely.

Was it doing backstrokes….lol

see my edit in my last post

[Addicks Fan 1981]

5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A distinctly average August temp wise devoid of any real warmth. Rainfall levels average or above for most. Sunshine probably a litfle below or average. A very underwhelming August on the back of a very poor July. 

The CET for the whole of the summer you could say will be the feature that redeems our summer this year @damianslaw, however we have had much worse summers than this year and those worse summers feel like a memory fog to a good many of us.   

[Don]

1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

The CET for the whole of the summer you could say will be the feature that redeems our summer this year @damianslaw, however we have had much worse summers than this year and those worse summers feel like a memory fog to a good many of us.   

Summer 2008 was definitely worse than this one, particularly August, which was decidedly woeful!