August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

16.4c to the 13th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP projections have been slowly increasing over several days and not because they are picking up new rainfalls at the end but more related to the less torrid temperature trends. Would say we are near 45 mm (38.3 after 12th), and may end up close to 70-75 mm now. 

CET projections have fallen back to around 17 C but I do note that very warm air is sometimes shown quite close over France and Belgium and it's possible that the earlier forecasted heat could return, even so a few rather warm days in the mix and a likely finish between 16.5 and 17.2 from current guidance. 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.5C -0.2C below average. Rainfall 41.5mm 60.3% of the monthly average.

Should be only small rises in the next few days if any then another push upward again Friday and over the weekend. How much depends on how far north the hot air gets.

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

56 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP projections have been slowly increasing over several days and not because they are picking up new rainfalls at the end but more related to the less torrid temperature trends. Would say we are near 45 mm (38.3 after 12th), and may end up close to 70-75 mm now. 

CET projections have fallen back to around 17 C but I do note that very warm air is sometimes shown quite close over France and Belgium and it's possible that the earlier forecasted heat could return, even so a few rather warm days in the mix and a likely finish between 16.5 and 17.2 from current guidance. 

 

If the final summer CET is between 16.5 to 17.0 its a consolidation on our hot summers really.    

[Roger J Smith]

I suppose if June had been July and July had been June, it would have seemed like a slightly warmish summer instead of the s*** sandwich that actually seems to be unfolding. 

[Earthshine]

7 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I suppose if June had been July and July had been June, it would have seemed like a slightly warmish summer instead of the s*** sandwich that actually seems to be unfolding. 

A CET anomaly of 2.9°C in July would have been fantastic: 18.8°C!  I think mid to late summer being a right off makes or breaks the summer - even if the June is record breaker!

[Addicks Fan 1981]

16.4c to the 14th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

 

Edited August 15, 2023 by Paul
Added c's as requested

[Metwatch]

On 09/08/2023 at 18:01, Metwatch said:

Only way is now for the CET. My guess by early next week is that it should be close to 16.5C.

As expected we've seen a decent climb up to mid month, over a 1C jump since last Wednesday. It will depend how warm it gets in the next 7-10 days but I think of CET of 17C seems quite possible now, 17-17.5C as the month final maybe.

EWP also would go up a fair amount if we had some thunderstorms. I think 70-80mm as a final value looks like a good bet, in line with my prediction of 17.1C and about 70mm.

June probably won't be the warmest summer month of the year after all!

Edited August 15, 2023 by Metwatch

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

If we get a proper heatwave we could see high 17s.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 16.5C -0.1C below average. Rainfall 45.2mm 65.7% of the average.

GFS cancels the heat for Friday having a cool day for most so only slight uplift by Saturday. What happens next week is open to all so a deep bake could be for the SE and S England or it could be just very warm. Much uncertainty.

[Roger J Smith]

There is more heat again on the GFS run today, but also some very chilly days depicted at end of month. There may be no net gain in our estimates as a result (around 17 C but after perhaps reaching 17.7). EWP is also creeping upward and appears to be into the 80-90 mm range now. 

[TheOgre]

I think we’ve seen a flip to August being the warmest month in the 2020s. In the 2010s July used to be the month you’d most expect hot weather and June and August typically poor or benign.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like proper summer for the rest of August on the latest GFS run. Let’s see what the ensembles show and the ECM!

[Don]

6 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks like proper summer for the rest of August on the latest GFS run. Let’s see what the ensembles show and the ECM!

Still very much up in the air as to what CET this August might have!

[Summer Sun]

16.4c to the 15th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Half way point and the cool start has been cancelled out by slightly warmer than average means in recent days.

The outlook promises a continued rise, slow at first but from the weekend on perhaps more significantly, meaning we are likely to be comfortably in the 17s by this time next week.

Where we finish is questionable, but it looks like August will be our warmest month of the year.

I suspect we will finish in the 17s, but where, I'm not sure. A warm month but without any notable heat. 

Edited August 16, 2023 by damianslaw

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

I suspect we will finish in the 17s, but where, I'm not sure. A warm month but without any notable heat. 

Some of the models today are showing the possibility of notable heat for this month, but will it come off?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Need an average of 18.7c from today to hit my 17.6c

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.6C bang on average. Rainfall 45.2 65.7% of the monthly average.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Don said:

Some of the models today are showing the possibility of notable heat for this month, but will it come off?

Mmm August could end on a cool note with ridge to west and a northerly, by late August under clear skies we can be recording low single digits mins .

[Addicks Fan 1981]

21 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm August could end on a cool note with ridge to west and a northerly, by late August under clear skies we can be recording low single digits mins .

According to this average or above average temperatures right the way through according to the mean line.   

  

Ensemble probabilty weather forecast for Birmingham

WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

---

Probability weather forecasts for UK and overseas locations. These use ensemble model data to help asses confidence levels. Fully updated every 6 hours.

 

[Weather26]

1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

According to this average or above average temperatures right the way through according to the mean line.   

  

Ensemble probabilty weather forecast for Birmingham

WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

---

Probability weather forecasts for UK and overseas locations. These use ensemble model data to help asses confidence levels. Fully updated every 6 hours.

 

Well then something tells me that could all go per shaped before the month ends, considering we have another Bank Holiday weekend next weekend.

[Roger J Smith]

Those colder days have been taken away, on latest GFS runs, seems like a two-day cycle of model runs and you have to wonder, is there one more cycle to come, or can we now count on the sustained warmth? Would say close to 17.5 on current guidance, That would provide a total increase of 2.3 over the July CET (for June and August, 0.9 + 1.4). The current top ten of such unusual June-August beatdowns on July are shown below: 

 

(this list includes all cases where July was colder than both June and August, and a few others that had a large surplus from one of the two months offset by July being warmer than the other month -- the list includes all cases of any surplus greater than 0.5 C which turns out to be the smallest value for a total surplus of cases with July coolest of the three -- there are dozens of other cases with a smaller surplus over July in the range of 0.1 to 0.4, most of them guided by a warmer August but with June almost as warm as July). 

RANK __ YEAR ___ JUN _ JUL _ AUG ___ JUN-AUG surplus over JUL ___ Type of surplus __ 2023 needs Aug value to tie

_ 01 ____ 1842 ___15.6 _14.5 _17.1 ______ 3.7 ________________________ both warmer _____ 18.9

_ 02 ____ 1858 ___15.8 _14.8 _16.8 ______ 3.0 ________________________ both warmer _____ 18.2

_ 03 ____ 1802 ___13.7 _13.5 _17.2 ______ 2.9 ________________________ both warmer _____ 18.1

_ 04 ____ 1743 ___15.6 _14.9 _16.9 ______ 2.7 ________________________ both warmer _____ 17.9

_ 05 ____ 1758 ___14.6 _14.2 _16.4 ______ 2.6 ________________________ both warmer _____ 17.8

_ 06 ____ 1676 ___18.0 _16.0 _16.5 ______ 2.5 ________________________ both warmer _____ 17.7

_ 07 ____ 1840 ___14.1 _13.8 _15.9 ______ 2.4 ________________________ both warmer _____ 17.6

_ 08 ____ 1919 ___14.3 _13.9 _15.7 ______ 2.2 ________________________ both warmer _____ 17.4

_ 09 ____ 1970 ___16.4 _15.2 _16.0 ______ 2.0 ________________________ both warmer _____ 17.2

_ 10 ____ 1940 ___16.4 _15.1 _15.6 ______ 1.8 ________________________ both warmer ______17.0

_ 11 ____ 1846 ___18.2 _16.5 _16.6 ______ 1.7 ________________________ both warmer _____ 16.9

_ 12 ____ 1965 ___14.7 _14.0 _14.9 ______ 1.6 ________________________ both warmer ______16.8

_t13 ____ 1724 ___15.3 _15.0 _16.2 ______ 1.5 ________________________ both warmer _____ 16.7

_t13 ____ 1910 ___14.7 _14.2 _15.2 ______ 1.5 ________________________ both warmer _____ 16.7

_t13 ____ 2004 ___15.3 _15.7 _17.6 ______ 1.5 ________________________ only Aug warmer _ 16.7

_ 16 ____ 2020 ___15.3 _15.8 _17.7 ______ 1.4 ________________________ only Aug warmer _ 16.6

_ 17 ____ 1786 ___16.1 _15.0 _15.1 ______ 1.2 ________________________ both warmer _____ 16.4

_ 18 ____ 1722 ___17.1 _15.6 _15.2 ______ 1.1 ________________________ only June warmer_ 16.3

_t19 ____ 1685 ___15.0 _14.5 _15.0 ______ 1.0 ________________________ both warmer _____ 16.2

_t19 ____ 1877 ___15.2 _14.7 _15.2 ______ 1.0 ________________________ both warmer _____ 16.2

_t19 ____ 2000 ___14.9 _15.3 _16.7 ______ 1.0 ________________________ only Aug warmer _ 16.2

_ 22 ____ 1960 ___16.1 _15.1 _15.0 ______ 0.9 ________________________ only June warmer _16.1

_t23 ____ 1736 ___15.7 _16.4 _17.8 ______ 0.7 ________________________ only Aug warmer _ 15.9

_t23 ____ 1741 ___15.2 _15.6 _16.7 ______ 0.7 ________________________ only Aug warmer _ 15.9

_t23 ____ 1798 ___16.9 _16.3 _16.4 ______ 0.7 ________________________ both warmer ______15.9

_t23 ____ 1861 ___14.8 _15.0 _15.9 ______ 0.7 ________________________ only Aug warmer _ 15.9

_t23 ____ 1875 ___14.2 _14.8 _16.1 ______ 0.7 ________________________ only Aug warmer _ 15.9

_t23 ____ 1930 ___15.3 _15.2 _15.7 ______ 0.7 ________________________ both warmer ______15.9

_ 29 ____ 1851 ___14.3 _14.6 _15.5 ______ 0.6 ________________________ only Aug warmer _ 15.8

_t30 ____ 1817 ___15.1 _14.1 _13.6 ______ 0.5 ________________________ only June warmer_ 15.7

_t30 ____ 1915 ___14.4 _14.6 _15.3 ______ 0.5 ________________________ only Aug warmer _ 15.7

_t30 ____ 1980 ___13.8 _14.6 _15.9 ______ 0.5 ________________________ only Aug warmer _ 15.7

[Don]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm August could end on a cool note with ridge to west and a northerly, by late August under clear skies we can be recording low single digits mins .

All hinging on late in the month perhaps?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

All hinging on late in the month perhaps?

@Roger J Smithlatched onto it in his above post and the GFS ensemble mean is quite respectable.