August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.2C -1.5C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

A steady rise for the next five days and if the silly heat does get pulled this way a sudden very rapid rise.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP around 35 mm now, will add about 20 mm by 24th according to GFS (for 55 mm). 

CET projection from 12z GFS run is around 18.5 C (I kid you not) with a slow rise at first to about 16.2 a week from now, then with near-record heat for about a week, daily means possibly into the low 20s, would be adding 0.3 each day (0.2 towards end with more days to average) ... so the question is not really where the CET is going but whether or not you buy into the GFS heat. I'm willing to take a sharp cooling trend around the 25th at that rate.

 

[Earthshine]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP around 35 mm now, will add about 20 mm by 24th according to GFS (for 55 mm). 

CET projection from 12z GFS run is around 18.5 C (I kid you not) with a slow rise at first to about 16.2 a week from now, then with near-record heat for about a week, daily means possibly into the low 20s, would be adding 0.3 each day (0.2 towards end with more days to average) ... so the question is not really where the CET is going but whether or not you buy into the GFS heat. I'm willing to take a sharp cooling trend around the 25th at that rate.

 

Bloody hell, c'mon GFS!  Make my 18.4°C guess come true like you did with my 17.2°C June guess (almost)

[Don]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

Bloody hell, c'mon GFS!  Make my 18.4°C guess come true like you did with my 17.2°C June guess (almost)

I wouldn't normally object, but a week of near record breaking temperatures would be a bit much!  I know many are craving some decent summer weather, but I hope it doesn't come in the form of extreme!!

[Summer Sun]

15.2c to the 8th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average
1.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[Metwatch]

Only way is now for the CET. My guess by early next week is that it should be close to 16.5C.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.3C -1.4C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

15.2c to the 8th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average
1.8c below the 81 to 10 average

This will be the low point, quite notably so for this early stage in August. Traditionally August is a cooling month. but this one, likely to be quite different, a notably cool first third, cancelled out by an above average middle, perhaps an average last third, will return a near average value. I'll be surprised to see a return to cool weather on the same level of what we have seen. 

[Don]

28 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

This will be the low point, quite notably so for this early stage in August. Traditionally August is a cooling month. but this one, likely to be quite different, a notably cool first third, cancelled out by an above average middle, perhaps an average last third, will return a near average value. I'll be surprised to see a return to cool weather on the same level of what we have seen. 

My 16.8C guess 'could' end up close to the mark at this early stage?!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks a bit above average in the second half!

[Summer Sun]

15.4c to the 9th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
1.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[Weather26]

3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks a bit above average in the second half!

But still with rain spikes all over the place meaning we appear to go from wet & cool to wet and warm.

[Scorcher]

We may well have already reached the low point in the month. Looks to me like the 2nd half could be considerably warmer than the first.

[Dancerwithwings]

21 hours ago, Don said:

My 16.8C guess 'could' end up close to the mark at this early stage?!

Ouch!!! ….not just yet Don, possible changes maybe happening

[Roger J Smith]

Current GFS would suggest (again) a fairly high CET outcome by 26th at least, 17.5 to 18.0 looks to be the most likely range. A slow climb after today for about five days, then a steeper rise as it turns hotter after Wed 16th. EWP not much change to report, heading for around 60 mm (by 26th). 

 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Earthshine]

43 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Current GFS would suggest (again) a fairly high CET outcome by 26th at least, 17.5 to 18.0 looks to be the most likely range. A slow climb after today for about five days, then a steeper rise as it turns hotter after Wed 16th. EWP not much change to report, heading for around 60 mm (by 26th). 

 

Would probably be even higher with that insane ECMWF deterministic run.  Incredibly widespread 850 hPa temperatures >=22°C

[Don]

2 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Ouch!!! ….not just yet Don, possible changes maybe happening

Yep, my guess is going to be in trouble if tonight's model output ends up close to the mark!! 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

Would probably be even higher with that insane ECMWF deterministic run.  Incredibly widespread 850 hPa temperatures >=22°C

Your guess is in with a shout after tonight's model output, that's for sure!

[Dancerwithwings]

14 minutes ago, Don said:

Yep, my guess is going to be in trouble if tonight's model output ends up close to the mark!! 

A couple of days ago it was the opposite, so many a day to go as yet….

[Don]

Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

A couple of days ago it was the opposite, so many a day to go as yet….

Yes indeed, but a warm/hot spell does look to be firming up now.  Question is, will it get watered down?

[Earthshine]

13 minutes ago, Don said:

Your guess is in with a shout after tonight's model output, that's for sure!

Surely not two 18°C CET August's in a row??  Perhaps the 20s is the decade that August makes a roaring comeback after being a bit lackluster since 2003.  We've already had a 17.7°C and an 18.7°C August so far this decade.

[Don]

Just now, Earthshine said:

Surely not two 18°C CET August's in a row??  Perhaps the 20s is the decade that August makes a roaring comeback after being a bit lackluster since 2003.  We've already had a 17.7°C and an 18.7°C August so far this decade.

Well, you certainly wouldn't have thought it last Saturday!!  However, we only have to look what happened in June after a cooler than average 1st week.  It could be that we are now entering a period of hotter Augusts, time will tell!

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes indeed, but a warm/hot spell does look to be firming up now.  Question is, will it get watered down?

“:Watered down”.  Sounds like what happens in Winter…YES don’t we know

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

“:Watered down”.  Sounds like what happens in Winter…YES don’t we know

Yes and that has also been the trend this summer since June too, so we shall see.....

[Summer Sun]

15.8c to the 10th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average