August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.9C -0.8C below average. Rainfall still at 38.2mm 55.5% of the monthly average.

Looks like steady rise for the next seven days and then probably a rapid one as the heat comes in. So probably knocking on average by midweek and then above by the end of next weekend.

[reef]

Definitely signs of a 18+C August now. Then it is a case of how high it can go and therefore how far up the top 10 list of warmest summers we can climb.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP now around 36 mm, GFS continues to suggest 20-25 mm additional, now to 27th. Outcome near 60 mm plus whatever falls 28th-31st, but with strong high pressure building in from west around 27th that could be assumed to be slight.

CET appears likely to stall out near 16 C for a few days after today's expected slight rise, and would then make a steady upward move in a ten-day warm spell to 25th. If average was 20 C in that ten days (after 15th) then CET would reach at least 17.5 and possibly 18. If days 15 and 16 are more temperate as suggested a slight fall back could be expected. Assuming 28th to 31st warms up somewhat with the high further east, month could end 17 to 18. 

Also, I had a look to see what the current record is for consecutive August CET values. The current high average is 18.1 from 18.6 1975 and 17.6 1976. That is also the best pair in terms of the lower of two values, tied with 1779-1880 and 2003-04 also 17.6. If we managed 17.7 or higher this August, both of those records would be replaced by 2022 (18.7)-2023 (17.7+).

Other consecutive Augusts that were both 17+ are listed below in order of their lower value (underlined if not a tie): 

CONSECUTIVE AUGUSTS ___ Avg of two (rank overall)

1975 (18.6) 1976 (17.6) _____ 18.1 (1)

2003 (18.3) 2004 (17.6) _____ 17.95 (2)

1779 (17.6) 1780 (17.6) _____ 17.6 (6)

1983 (17.4) 1984 (17.7) _____ 17.55 (t7)

2019 (17.2) 2020 (17.7) _____ 17.45 (t10)

1990 (18.0) 1991 (17.1) _____ 17.55 (t7)

1780 (17.6) 1781 (17.3) _____ 17.45 (t10)

1932 (17.1) 1933 (17.6) _____ 17.35 (t12)

2002 (17.0) 2003 (18.3) _____ 17.65 (5)

1718 (17.0) 1719 (17.0) _____ 17.0 (t23)

(other consecutives avg 17.0 or higher)

1995 (19.1) 1996 (16.6) _____ 17.85 (3)

1996 (16.6) 1997 (19.0) _____ 17.8 (4)

1994 (16.0) 1995 (19.1) _____ 17.55 (t6)

1997 (19.0) 1998 (16.0) _____ 17.5 (8)

2021 (16.0) 2022 (18.7) _____ 17.35 (t12)

1989 (16.6) 1990 (18.0) _____ 17.3 (14)

1704 (16.9) 1705 (17.5) _____ 17.2 (t15)

1778 (16.8) 1779 (17.6) _____ 17.2 (t15)

1801 (17.1) 1802 (17.2) _____ 17.15 (t17)

1856 (16.9) 1857 (17.4) _____ 17.15 (t17)

1898 (16.5) 1899 (17.8) _____ 17.15 (t17)

1705 (17.5) 1706 (16.7) _____ 17.1 (t20)

1746 (15.9) 1747 (18.3) _____ 17.1 (t20)

1747 (18.3) 1748 (15.8) _____ 17.05 (22)

1735 (16.2) 1736 (17.8) _____ 17.0 (t23)

2018 (16.8) 2019 (17.2) _____ 17.0 (t23)

==============================

This (2022-23) would be the 26th occasion when a consecutive pair averaged 17.0 or higher (only 15.3 was needed), and potentially the 11th pair that both exceeded 17.0. In the past, four of the ten include one year used twice (1780, and 2003 for both pairs on either side) -- this reduces to eight the number of times that spells of years managed the feat. A further dilution of the number of spells occurs in the cases added for average values. In addition to the two years already cited, 1705, 1747, 1990, 1995, 1997 and 2019 account for two entries each. This reduces to 15 the total number of spells of 3-6 years that produce August averages at or above 17.0. Given that 30-year averages are approaching 17, this will probably become a common phenomenon.

The longest spells that always produced such averages in consecutive Augusts were five years (1994 to 1998), four years (1778 to 1781), and three years (several cases with all the other anchor years listed as mid-points 1704-06, 1746-48, 1989-1991, 2018-2020 and probably 2021-23) ... 2018-23 does not count as a spell because 2020-2021 does not average 17.0. 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, reef said:

Definitely signs of a 18+C August now. Then it is a case of how high it can go and therefore how far up the top 10 list of warmest summers we can climb.

Can only think SST's helping. The synoptics of last 6 weeks certainly on paper should have returned below average lows, instead just average. Will be an odd summer if it ends Top 10 without any notable exceptional heat. Just won't seem right. 

I won't be rating this summer overall for warmth despite that 10 day spell in June which distorted things here.. a spell of means in the mid 17s up to 18 later this month won't make a difference to my perception of the summer. 

Edited August 11, 2023 by damianslaw

[Don]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Can only think SST's helping. The synoptics of last 6 weeks certainly on paper should have returned below average lows, instead just average. Will be an odd summer if it ends Top 10 without any notable exceptional heat. Just won't seem right. 

Only a few days ago my 16.8C guess for August looked plausible, now it looks like it can be binned!  After being spot on with May, I've really gone off course!

[Addicks Fan 1981]

32 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Can only think SST's helping. The synoptics of last 6 weeks certainly on paper should have returned below average lows, instead just average. Will be an odd summer if it ends Top 10 without any notable exceptional heat. Just won't seem right. 

I won't be rating this summer overall for warmth despite that 10 day spell in June which distorted things here.. a spell of means in the mid 17s up to 18 later this month won't make a difference to my perception of the summer. 

This summer seems a cross between 1976, 2009 and if it all goes according to plan August could be like 2009 or maybe even 2018, but 2018 summer was a classic whereas this summer has been very mixed.  

[Don]

1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

This summer seems a cross between 1976, 2009 and if it all goes according to plan August could be like 2009 or maybe even 2018, but 2018 summer was a classic whereas this summer has been very mixed.  

Imagine how warm summer 2018 would have been if August had continued the theme and been a hot month, too?!  Bearing in mind that summer really started in May that year!

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Imagine how warm summer 2018 would have been if August had continued the theme and been a hot month, too?!  Bearing in mind that summer really started in May that year!

I reckon from April 15th onwards of 2018 it kicked off.    

[Don]

Just now, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

I reckon from April 15th onwards of 2018 it kicked off.    

There was a hot spell around the 15th-18th April before becoming much cooler towards the end of the month.

[Summer Sun]

16.2c to the 11th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

[cheese]

18 hours ago, Don said:

Imagine how warm summer 2018 would have been if August had continued the theme and been a hot month, too?!  Bearing in mind that summer really started in May that year!

June & July 2018 + August 2022. 

[Metwatch]

17 minutes ago, cheese said:

June & July 2018 + August 2022. 

That would result in a combined summer CET of 18C which would obliterate 1976 by 0.3C. The summer CET for 2018 is 17.4C so already very warm!

Edited August 12, 2023 by Metwatch

[cheese]

20 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

That would result in a combined summer CET of 18C which would obliterate 1976 by 0.3C. The summer CET for 2018 is 17.4C so already very warm!

I’m sure it will happen one day. 

[Don]

4 hours ago, cheese said:

June & July 2018 + August 2022. 

Or June and July 2018 + August 1995!

3 hours ago, cheese said:

I’m sure it will happen one day. 

Oh definitely! 

[Relativistic]

On 11/08/2023 at 22:41, Don said:

Only a few days ago my 16.8C guess for August looked plausible, now it looks like it can be binned!  After being spot on with May, I've really gone off course!

We're not even halfway yet..

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.4C -0.3C below average. Rainfall up 38.5mm 56% of the monthly average.

[Don]

5 hours ago, Relativistic said:

We're not even halfway yet..

No, but taking into account what the models were showing and had they ended up close to the mark, then my guess would have been a bust.

[Summer Sun]

16.3c to the 12th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[Addicks Fan 1981]

According to information I have obtained from bbc weather and the met office the CET would be 16.9 by the 26th or 27th.   

[damianslaw]

A slight rise most likely over the coming week, no notable warmth. 

Edited August 13, 2023 by damianslaw

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Just now, damianslaw said:

A slight rise most likely over the coming week, the forecast heat won't take hold. 

It'll be funny if we get a summer CET overall which is the same as 1997 which could be a possibility, it all hinges on this month though.   

[Catbrainz]

I am guessing August will be in the high 16s/low 17s for CET so far. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

3 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

I am guessing August will be in the high 16s/low 17s for CET so far. 

You could be correct on that, I'm thinking the same to be fair.   It's not really the daytime temperatures that have kept the temperature up, its the night time values that have been responsible for that.    

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

I am guessing August will be in the high 16s/low 17s for CET so far. 

Currently looking that way yes, but only a few days ago it was looking to be a potentially very warm or hot month!

[Catbrainz]

13 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

You could be correct on that, I'm thinking the same to be fair.   It's not really the daytime temperatures that have kept the temperature up, it’s the night time values that have been responsible for that.    

It’s hard to get a below average CET in summer these days it seems.Even July somehow scraped by just below despite being dominated by cyclonic NWles which aren’t exactly known for above average night temps along with highly suppressed highs. 
 

If you gave me the GFS chart archive for July just gone I would have guessed a CET in the mid or high 14s not 16 odd going by synoptics.